Should the Dees and the Pies do a hard reset like the Tigers?

[Tonythetiger]

Given that Tassie will soon come in and compromise a couple of drafts, and with overall just the amount of sides in the competition it's got me thinking that clubs may be more inclined to trade away value as per what Richmond did this year and start looking at how a 2 year rebuild could be achieved. The model is really just trading out players still with value and aiming for as many top 30 picks in a single draft then you are just naturally not very good for a couple of years until ideally that bulk of players come good.

If we look at recent premiership dynasty sides like Melbourne (2021) and Collingwood (2023) who aren't likely to win anymore flags after such an unprecedented run of success, should they just face the music and go all in so that they aren't trying to rebuild with the minimum draft capital each year?

 

[sydney_gws]

I think maybe for Melbourne it will happen, but this only occurs when the best couple of players leave earlier than expected ( like tigers this year and Eagles 2007 with Judd leaving and Cousins suspended/ booted out) and the club is forced to do it.
I remember Leigh Matthews said a few years ago it is very hard for clubs to admit they need to go backwards to go forwards, to commit to a couple of years of zero flag chance.

 

[Drought Break]

after this year yes i would agree Collingwood should take this approach.

 

[sydney_gws]

after this year yes i would agree Collingwood should take this approach.

Who to trade out though?
DeGoey? Maynard?

 

[Worm4]

Melbourne 2021 and Collingwood 2023 aren't premiership dynasty teams first and foremost.
Secondly, Collingwood are all in with their trading strategy so they aren't concerned about early picks and are happy to give away early draft selections for proven performers.
Melbourne won a flag on the strength of multiple early draft picks and would probably go down the same path in the next couple of years.
Would be fair to say that Collingwood won a flag on the strength of father/son and NGA selections given it has produced multiple all australian players from that resource. That well may have run dry for the moment so they are banking on topping up for the next few years. It might come back to bite them , it may not, but time will be the judge of that strategy.

 

[Drought Break]

Melbourne 2021 and Collingwood 2023 aren't premiership dynasty teams first and foremost.
Secondly, Collingwood are all in with their trading strategy so they aren't concerned about early picks and are happy to give away early draft selections for proven performers.
Melbourne won a flag on the strength of multiple early draft picks and would probably go down the same path in the next couple of years.
Would be fair to say that Collingwood won a flag on the strength of father/son and NGA selections given it has produced multiple all australian players from that resource. That well may have run dry for the moment so they are banking on topping up for the next few years. It might come back to bite them , it may not, but time will be the judge of that strategy.

I thought Melbourne had the potential for multiple premierships with some quality talls. lever, may, gawn etc. Agree on Collingwood.

 

[Trav 20]

B: McVee, May, Lever

HB: Windsor, Petty, Salem

C: Langdon, Oliver, Sharp

HF: Tholstrup, van Rooyen, Langford

F: Fritsch, Turner, Pickett

FOLL: Gawn, Petracca, Viney

IC: Rivers, Bowey, Lindsay, Chandler

SUB: Sparrow

The rest: Melksham/McDonald/Aidan Johnson/Kynan Brown/Howes/Moniz-Wakefield/Woewodin/Hore/Spargo/Jefferson should all get games.

I think it's escaped most opposition supporters that Melbourne have well and truly already embarked on revitalizing their list.

The 11 bolded players in the best 23 above are all 23 and under, that's half the team. Seven are top 20 picks.

If you included players 25 and under it's 14 of the 23.

This team is based on regular track watchers, general supporter agreement, and a small amount of projection with the inclusion of top 10 talents Langford and Lindsay. I have no doubt they'll play the bulk of the season.

It's a furphy to think Melbourne need a ''hard reset''.

 

[STPer18]

Misery loves company.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Is Hard Reset more powerful a response than a Rebuild?

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

The 11 bolded players in the best 23 above are all 23 and under, that's half the team. Seven are top 20 picks.

If you included players 25 and under it's 14 of the 23.

Ok, but the top three in the B&F were Viney, Gawn and Neal-Bullen. Gawn's 33 and irreplaceable as the best ruckman of the past 30 years. Viney's 31 by Easter. ANB's gone.

To my recollection and reading the thoughts of many Melbourne supporters Viney had a decidedly underwhelming 2024, one of the more baffling club B&F winners in recent times. Yes, there's young talent coming through. How many would pretty much be getting a start at any AFL club?

And of course, draft position once you get past the first few is a crapshoot. People think every eighth or tenth pick is headed to the hall of fame or something. Here's the data: admittedly it probably understates the averages, based on just how random the early years of the draft were.

AFL Draft Picks Broken Down by Pick Number - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

On Richmond, it makes me laugh that they're selling this as some sort of grand plan. They grossly overestimated their list profile at the end of 2022 and I'm sure Hardwick had a huge part in going all in for a last dance 2023 flag, knowingly setting the club up to be around where they are now for the mid-to-late 2020s in the process. But then players form dropped off, they suffered significant injuries and a few legends went on a year or two beyond their use by date. Then a handful of the players who were supposed to lead the reset fled at the end of last year. They've started this hard rebuild only after they were left with no realistic alternative.

 

[Chronz]

Given that Tassie will soon come in and compromise a couple of drafts, and with overall just the amount of sides in the competition it's got me thinking that clubs may be more inclined to trade away value as per what Richmond did this year and start looking at how a 2 year rebuild could be achieved. The model is really just trading out players still with value and aiming for as many top 30 picks in a single draft then you are just naturally not very good for a couple of years until ideally that bulk of players come good.

If we look at recent premiership dynasty sides like Melbourne (2021) and Collingwood (2023) who aren't likely to win anymore flags after such an unprecedented run of success, should they just face the music and go all in so that they aren't trying to rebuild with the minimum draft capital each year?

per what Richmond did this year and start looking at how a 2 year rebuild

You'll still be bottom feeders in 5 years time let alone 2.

 

[schmuttt]

Ok, but the top three in the B&F were Viney, Gawn and Neal-Bullen. Gawn's 33 and irreplaceable as the best ruckman of the past 30 years. Viney's 31 by Easter. ANB's gone.

To my recollection and reading the thoughts of many Melbourne supporters Viney had a decidedly underwhelming 2024, one of the more baffling club B&F winners in recent times. Yes, there's young talent coming through. How many would pretty much be getting a start at any AFL club?

And of course, draft position once you get past the first few is a crapshoot. People think every eighth or tenth pick is headed to the hall of fame or something. Here's the data: admittedly it probably understates the averages, based on just how random the early years of the draft were.

AFL Draft Picks Broken Down by Pick Number - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

On Richmond, it makes me laugh that they're selling this as some sort of grand plan. They grossly overestimated their list profile at the end of 2022 and I'm sure Hardwick had a huge part in going all in for a last dance 2023 flag, knowingly setting the club up to be around where they are now for the mid-to-late 2020s in the process. But then players form dropped off, they suffered significant injuries and a few legends went on a year or two beyond their use by date. Then a handful of the players who were supposed to lead the reset fled at the end of last year. They've started this hard rebuild only after they were left with no realistic alternative.

I don't think Travs point is that these guys are all guns - it is more that we are trying to include youth into the team already, and will continue to do so over this year. If Trac requests another trade end of 2025 I'd be letting him go for a high pick and continue trying to refresh the list.

 

[schmuttt]

I think Houston deciding not to come to us was actually a blessing - I've got no doubt we would have given up more than the Pies and really hurt our future by doing so.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I don't think Travs point is that these guys are all guns - it is more that we are trying to include youth into the team already, and will continue to do so over this year. If Trac requests another trade end of 2025 I'd be letting him go for a high pick and continue trying to refresh the list.

Fair enough, I agree with that approach.

Similar story with my club, where so much fell our way last year and in a bizarre season all round, we were able to capitalise and nearly managed a smash and grab flag. It was nice to get Bailey Smith, but I'd be amazed if we make the eight in 2025. It's time for Geelong to get serious about a rebuild, in my opinion.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

You'll still be bottom feeders in 5 years time let alone 2.

For the record: Richmond's top 30 picks between 2008-23:

2008: Tyrone Vickery, Jayden Post
2009: Dustin Martin, Ben Griffiths
2010: Reece Conca, Jake Batchelor
2011: Brandon Ellis, Todd Elton
2012: Nick Vlastuin
2013: Ben Lennon,
2014: Corey Ellis, Daniel Rioli
2016: Shai Bolton
2017: Jack Higgins, Noah Balta
2018: Riley Collier-Dawkins
2019: Thomson Dow
2021: Josh Gibcus, Tom Brown, Tyler Sonsie, Sam Banks, Judson Clarke

If any Dr. Frankensteins out there want to try making a premiership side out of that 22, go for your life.

 

[schmuttt]

Fair enough, I agree with that approach.

Similar story with my club, where so much fell our way last year and in a bizarre season all round, we were able to capitalise and nearly managed a smash and grab flag. It was nice to get Bailey Smith, but I'd be amazed if we make the eight in 2025. It's time for Geelong to get serious about a rebuild, in my opinion.

As you'd be well aware you need to have senior guys around when you're trying to develop kids, which I think is the main reason they were quite generous extending Gawn till end of 2027 and Viney till end of 2028. As long as we don't do anything stupid with our draft picks I'll be happy (Well, and a new coach but that is at least another season away).

 

[Trav 20]

Ok, but the top three in the B&F were Viney, Gawn and Neal-Bullen. Gawn's 33 and irreplaceable as the best ruckman of the past 30 years. Viney's 31 by Easter. ANB's gone.

To my recollection and reading the thoughts of many Melbourne supporters Viney had a decidedly underwhelming 2024, one of the more baffling club B&F winners in recent times. Yes, there's young talent coming through. How many would pretty much be getting a start at any AFL club?

And of course, draft position once you get past the first few is a crapshoot. People think every eighth or tenth pick is headed to the hall of fame or something. Here's the data: admittedly it probably understates the averages, based on just how random the early years of the draft were.

AFL Draft Picks Broken Down by Pick Number - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

On Richmond, it makes me laugh that they're selling this as some sort of grand plan. They grossly overestimated their list profile at the end of 2022 and I'm sure Hardwick had a huge part in going all in for a last dance 2023 flag, knowingly setting the club up to be around where they are now for the mid-to-late 2020s in the process. But then players form dropped off, they suffered significant injuries and a few legends went on a year or two beyond their use by date. Then a handful of the players who were supposed to lead the reset fled at the end of last year. They've started this hard rebuild only after they were left with no realistic alternative.

There seems to be a predilection for opposition supporters to reference Gawn's age every time they mention him. I'd understand if he was substantially trailing off, but he's not. Many ruckman play well, or at least are not a liability, until they're 35. One of Gawn's strengths, which is often overlooked, is his aerobic capacity. He's a preseason junkie, not to mention, a bike riding junkie. He just loves to run and ride. He keeps very fit, so I see no reason he'll fall off a cliff. He's the last person on the list I'm worried about.

Viney was Viney. Hands down Gawn should have won the B&F, but we have a very flawed voting system that favours games played over quality of games played. But Viney wasn't poor in comparison to other years, he gave a typical Viney year. He's exposed when Petracca and Oliver are either not there, or not at their best.

Forgive me for not worrying about Neale-Bullen leaving. For many years I was screaming for him to leave. He improved a lot, but he's just a role player.

As for draft position ? You're right, there are no guarantees, but the purpose of this thread is to suggest that Melbourne and Collingwood need a Richmond-style reset. My intent was to demonstrate that right now, if I'm selecting a best 23, then half the team is 23 and under. I think many would be surprised by the amount of youth already in what's admittedly an educated guess for best 23 in 2025.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

There seems to be a predilection for opposition supporters to reference Gawn's age every time they mention him. I'd understand if he was substantially trailing off, but he's not. Many ruckman play well, or at least are not a liability, until they're 35. One of Gawn's strengths, which is often overlooked, is his aerobic capacity. He's a preseason junkie, not to mention, a bike riding junkie. He just loves to run and ride. He keeps very fit, so I see no reason he'll fall off a cliff. He's the last person on the list I'm worried about.

Viney was Viney. Hands down Gawn should have won the B&F, but we have a very flawed voting system that favours games played over quality of games played. But Viney wasn't poor in comparison to other years, he gave a typical Viney year. He's exposed when Petracca and Oliver are either not there, or not at their best.

Forgive me for not worrying about Neale-Bullen leaving. For many years I was screaming for him to leave. He improved a lot, but he's just a role player.

As for draft position ? You're right, there are no guarantees, but the purpose of this thread is to suggest that Melbourne and Collingwood need a Richmond-style reset. My intent was to demonstrate that right now, if I'm selecting a best 23, then half the team is 23 and under. I think many would be surprised by the amount of youth already in what's admittedly an educated guess for best 23 in 2025.

Good response, all fair points. I guess with ruckmen, I feel like with the crash and bash nature of the position, when it ends, it ends quickly. But pretty hard to disagree with anything you've said.

 

[markm106]

I think Melbourne positioned pretty well with the youth on their list already. They may need to take a step back but are in a position to avoid a total rebuild. I can see Collingwood perhaps having a rebuild. Their list is a bit older and lacks quality youth apart from Daicos who is absolutely elite. A few others look ok and could develop such as Allan and Harrison. They’d really want to hit the FA marker hard which is what they have said they’d do. But that can be a dangerous game. And if you drop too low it could be hard to attract players leaving for success.