Analysis Should we really be spewing over trading out our 2021 picks?

[76woodenspooners]

We went into the 2020 draft with …

Pick 14 which we spent directly on Henry
Pick 16 which we spent directly on Macrae
2021 Collingwood third round pick (446 points) which we didn’t spend (still holding)
2021 Bulldogs second round pick (~563 points) which we didn’t spend (still holding)

That all seems reasonable and boring so far

We also went into the 2020 draft period with …

Pick 65 (90 points)
Pick 66 (80 points)
Pick 68 (59 points)
Pick 75 (0 points)

2021 Collingwood first round (pick 2, 2517 points) <- spewing?
2021 Collingwood second round (pick 21, 878 points) <- spewing?

And so we also came out of the 2020 draft with …

Pick 23: Reef McInnis (matched bid, 815 points minus discount = 652 points)
Pick 30: Caleb Poulter (played 11 games in 2021)
Pick 31: Liam McMahon
Pick 44: Beau McCreery (played 13 games in 2021)

2021 Freo third round (347 points)
2021 Adelaide third round (412 points)

So how do those decisions look today?

The points we came out with for the Freo and Adelaide third round picks come close to cancelling out our second round pick we spent.

And sure, we were always going to match the bid on Reef McInnis, but we would have had to go into points deficit unless we sacrificed a 2021 pick somehow.

So all that basically means that for our 2021 first round pick (now pick 2) and some junk picks in the 60’s …

… we got four very promising young lads, all of whom now have a year of development, and two of whom now have a body of AFL experience …

… Question: Would we really prefer to have forgone that, in order to hold pick 2 in this draft instead? (And North likely forcing us to use it on N.Daicos?)

I reckon we’ve ended up alright

 

[Prochard123]

Us losing 2021 pick 2 has nothing to do with 95% of what you wrote lol.

The decision of trading out pick 2 for peanuts is an undeniable mistake, just face it. It's not just losing out on a top end talent, this also has a flow on impact to the points we need to obtain as other clubs know that we will match anything for Daicos even at pick 1.

I appreciate the positivity, but no point justifying what was clearly an irrefutable error.

 

[76woodenspooners]

Us losing 2021 pick 2 has nothing to do with 95% of what you wrote lol.

The decision of trading out pick 2 for peanuts is an undeniable mistake, just face it.

You consider that …

McInnis
Poulter
McMahon
McCreery

… are “peanuts”? We’d be better off without them all, and instead go into this draft with pick 2?

It's not just losing out on a top end talent, this also has a flow on impact to the points we need to obtain as other clubs know that we will match anything for Daicos even at pick 1.

Exactly. So if we did hold pick 2, what happens next? …

… North calls out N.Daicos at pick 1, we match it and then that’s pick 2 gone.

But it would mean that we would be able to use the 2nd and 3rd round picks we’re holding …

… but how would having some 2nd / 3rd round players be better than having the kids we picked up in 2020?

We wouldn’t be better.

 

[Kappa]

You consider that …

McInnis
Poulter
McMahon
McCreery

… are “peanuts”? We’d be better off without them all, and instead go into this draft with pick 2?



Exactly. So if we did hold pick 2, what happens next? …

… North calls out N.Daicos at pick 1, we match it and then that’s pick 2 gone.

But it would mean that we would be able to use the 2nd and 3rd round picks we’re holding …

… but how would having some 2nd / 3rd round players be better than having the kids we picked up in 2020?

We wouldn’t be better.

or we could trade pick 2 for a shitload more than what we got for the trade last year.

 

[stormskye]

How people are still going on about this is beyond me. move on

 

[76woodenspooners]

or we could trade pick 2 for a shitload more than what we got for the trade last year.

… except we’d be 12 months behind in the development of the players. None of them would have had exposure to AFL footy yet.

What value do you put on that given the present state of our list?

———

And looking at how big that “shitload” would be:

Using the points index as a guide …

Pick 2 = 2517 points

Add the value of those 2020 junk picks, because Reef is part of considerations and bidding would have been involved somehow, add another 229 points …

= 2746 points

… versus …

Value of the four players … 2369 points

So we got within 15% value of the points equivalent.

We’re not that far off?

Surely that would be well within the drafting margin of error

 

[ZEV]

If pick 2 were pick 10-12 like we were most likely projecting it to be we would have been patting ourselves on the back.

Let's also remember that of the sides that finished top four this season, we beat one, lost to two by a point and one by ten points.

I would also imagine that when the trades were made we;

- Didn't expect to lose our president
- Didn't expect to lose our coach
- Rolled the dice on key players not getting injured

Given that every possible poor outcome actually occurred (probably worse than we could have ever imagined) to get within 15% of the points value is a pretty good result.

 

[Kappa]

… except we’d be 12 months behind in the development of the players. None of them would have had exposure to AFL footy yet.

What value do you put on that given the present state of our list?

———

And looking at how big that “shitload” would be:

Using the points index as a guide …

Pick 2 = 2517 points

Add the value of those 2020 junk picks, because Reef is part of considerations and bidding would have been involved somehow, add another 229 points …

= 2746 points

… versus …

Value of the four players … 2369 points

So we got within 15% value of the points equivalent.

We’re not that far off?

Surely that would be well within the drafting margin of error

The points value is completely irrelevant, do you think any club would trade pick 2 for a bunch of picks in the 2nd round? Why not?

Why do people keep using "but they have an extra 12 months of development". There is no extra development, you're just moving it one year earlier, what does that achieve? Nothing. We're in no rush to rebuild, we need to do it right, not do it fast.

 

[Big Bryza]

How people are still going on about this is beyond me. move on

This x 1000.

Move on people.

The club is starting to sort its shit out.

I'll back Wrighty and hopefully a combo of Mcrae and Leppa to take the list forward.

 

[76woodenspooners]

I'll back Wrighty and hopefully a combo of Mcrae and Leppa to take the list forward.

This is all in Hine’s wheelhouse, and there’s no talk of moving him on?

 

[No SPIN]

or we could trade pick 2 for a shitload more than what we got for the trade last year.

Really?
How did you work that out?

 

[76woodenspooners]

Why do people keep using "but they have an extra 12 months of development". There is no extra development, …

Agree

… you're just moving it one year earlier, …

Agree

… what does that achieve?

For a team that’s contending for Premierships? Not much. But that’s not us.

For a team that needs to replace 12 players that exited the list in the off season? For a team that is short of talent now and has openings on the weekly teamsheet to fill now? For a team that should make the most of aging leaders who won’t be around forever? Surely it’s a consideration?

 

[Gone Critical]

76woodenspooners the biggest thing left out by many posters in this consideration, including yourself, is we would have still filled our list. We cant leave 3 empty spots on our list. We wouldnt have had Poulter but we may still have McMahon and McCreery as there is a chance they would have lasted longer in the draft. Because we know the names Poulter, McMahon and McCreery we have an attachment to them.

If they had turned into Harry, Jack and Mack on draft day we would now be looking at those 3 with hope and expectation, Jen2310 would be giving great reports of their progress and we would be arguing the toss about their potential. There would have been 3 kids to talk about. In addition the career differences of kids pick in the 30's and 40's compared to the 50's and 60's is less stark than the top 10 kids to a kid in the 30's. We lack kids picked at the pointy end of the draft. While that doesnt guarantee success one thing is certain no top line contending team has been built by largely neglecting top 10 and 20 picks which we have done over the last 6 drafts. Out 1st rounder this year would have provided avenue to add an additional highly rated kid. Thats the kicker for me.

What in essence what has now turned into pick 2 got us was the ability to move up to higher picks with our last 3 picks in the draft and a few points for Daicos

There is no doubt in hindsight it was a bad move

If we had pick 2 to trade and also had 3 kids, not the 3 we have now, with 12 months already put into their development. We would swap 2 for something much better than what we got.

 

[Gone Critical]

As to the criticism of discussing this now it was also an issue back when we did it. I have looked back at some threads from the time the deal was done and this was being discussed. I know I expressed a fear that something similar to what has happened would happen and the wiser course would have been to hold onto the pick. I think that makes this a very legitimate discussion now while the result of the trade comes home to roost.

 

[Horaceg]

We went into the 2020 draft with …

Pick 14 which we spent directly on Henry
Pick 16 which we spent directly on Macrae
2021 Collingwood third round pick (446 points) which we didn’t spend (still holding)
2021 Bulldogs second round pick (~563 points) which we didn’t spend (still holding)

That all seems reasonable and boring so far

We also went into the 2020 draft period with …

Pick 65 (90 points)
Pick 66 (80 points)
Pick 68 (59 points)
Pick 75 (0 points)

2021 Collingwood first round (pick 2, 2517 points) <- spewing?
2021 Collingwood second round (pick 21, 878 points) <- spewing?

And so we also came out of the 2020 draft with …

Pick 23: Reef McInnis (matched bid, 815 points minus discount = 652 points)
Pick 30: Caleb Poulter (played 11 games in 2021)
Pick 31: Liam McMahon
Pick 44: Beau McCreery (played 13 games in 2021)

2021 Freo third round (347 points)
2021 Adelaide third round (412 points)

So how do those decisions look today?

The points we came out with for the Freo and Adelaide third round picks come close to cancelling out our second round pick we spent.

And sure, we were always going to match the bid on Reef McInnis, but we would have had to go into points deficit unless we sacrificed a 2021 pick somehow.

So all that basically means that for our 2021 first round pick (now pick 2) and some junk picks in the 60’s …

… we got four very promising young lads, all of whom now have a year of development, and two of whom now have a body of AFL experience …

… Question: Would we really prefer to have forgone that, in order to hold pick 2 in this draft instead? (And North likely forcing us to use it on N.Daicos?)

I reckon we’ve ended up alright

I tend to agree that the decisions made at the time were right, the fact we fell off the proverbial cliff this year means the scales are adjusted and the deal looks to be a loss on paper. We can't change the past but we can focus on what we have, Poulter and McMahon and we get the best kid in the draft (arguably), if Nick wasn't a F&S and we picked him up with our previously owned pick 2 we would be over the moon. Dib is another talent we will most likely bring into the Club this year, another tick.

It is time for the Club and supporters to get behind what we have and stop sh1tting ourselves over what we don't have. Not much left for people to have a whinge about. The broom has gone through the place, time to just get behind the rejuvenation of the Collingwood Football Club and start acting like winners.

Get on board

 

[Horaceg]

Us losing 2021 pick 2 has nothing to do with 95% of what you wrote lol.

The decision of trading out pick 2 for peanuts is an undeniable mistake, just face it. It's not just losing out on a top end talent, this also has a flow on impact to the points we need to obtain as other clubs know that we will match anything for Daicos even at pick 1.

I appreciate the positivity, but no point justifying what was clearly an irrefutable error.

Only in hindsight and even then we won't know until we see how the kids end up.

 

[Gone Critical]

I think also we dont go very analytical on this because of the 3 names involved who we have got to know

Aiden Begg would be a good illustration of what i mean. There is a lot of hope and good wishes for this kid rightly so. He is one of ours and we rate his potential. I see posters talking about the steal he was and if he went to the draft this year he would be a top 30 pick etc

If you want to be a bit hard arsed and independent about him you would say here is a kid who was passed over in the main and rookie draft of his year, played 3 promising TAC cup games as an overager and then did his shoulder, has surgery and missed the rest of the year. We took a punt in the 2nd round of MSD but if he mised out there he would have been a chance for the rookie draft or missed getting picked again. As such he is on we take with a prayer attached. KPF coming from his history and making it are almost unknown

But he is our, we rate him and hope for hime until he shows us different

It would be the same for whoever became Poulter, McMahon and McCreery.

 

[left at home]

We went into the 2020 draft with …

Pick 14 which we spent directly on Henry
Pick 16 which we spent directly on Macrae
2021 Collingwood third round pick (446 points) which we didn’t spend (still holding)
2021 Bulldogs second round pick (~563 points) which we didn’t spend (still holding)

That all seems reasonable and boring so far

We also went into the 2020 draft period with …

Pick 65 (90 points)
Pick 66 (80 points)
Pick 68 (59 points)
Pick 75 (0 points)

2021 Collingwood first round (pick 2, 2517 points) <- spewing?
2021 Collingwood second round (pick 21, 878 points) <- spewing?

And so we also came out of the 2020 draft with …

Pick 23: Reef McInnis (matched bid, 815 points minus discount = 652 points)
Pick 30: Caleb Poulter (played 11 games in 2021)
Pick 31: Liam McMahon
Pick 44: Beau McCreery (played 13 games in 2021)

2021 Freo third round (347 points)
2021 Adelaide third round (412 points)

So how do those decisions look today?

The points we came out with for the Freo and Adelaide third round picks come close to cancelling out our second round pick we spent.

And sure, we were always going to match the bid on Reef McInnis, but we would have had to go into points deficit unless we sacrificed a 2021 pick somehow.

So all that basically means that for our 2021 first round pick (now pick 2) and some junk picks in the 60’s …

… we got four very promising young lads, all of whom now have a year of development, and two of whom now have a body of AFL experience …

… Question: Would we really prefer to have forgone that, in order to hold pick 2 in this draft instead? (And North likely forcing us to use it on N.Daicos?)

I reckon we’ve ended up alright

What we got, l am happy.
Got in some really good talent

 

[HFF]

I am flabbergasted at how people don’t understand how the draft matching system works and not understanding that had we held pick 2...it would have been swallowed whole on any Daicos bid unless we offloaded it for future pick in 2022.

 

[davywap]

I'm guessing we didn't realise how low we'd really sink this year, because the thought of picking up Daicos and a top 3 pick would've be mouth-watering. But there could've been a factor of "we're getting the best player anyway, so let's get a couple of mid-rangers this year instead."

 

[davywap]

I am flabbergasted at how people don’t understand how the draft matching system works and not understanding that had we held pick 2...it would have been swallowed whole on any Daicos bid unless we offloaded it for future pick in 2022.

I'll admit I didn't know this, makes sense if that is correct that we used it while we could.

 

[Gone Critical]

I am flabbergasted at how people don’t understand how the draft matching system works and not understanding that had we held pick 2...it would have been swallowed whole on any Daicos bid unless we offloaded it for future pick in 2022.

I think most know this and the discussion is around we could trade pick 2 for much more than we got last year

It’s a bit of a no brainer and the crux of the discussion.

 

[MyManLynch]

76woodenspooners the biggest thing left out by many posters in this consideration, including yourself, is we would have still filled our list. We cant leave 3 empty spots on our list. We wouldnt have had Poulter but we may still have McMahon and McCreery as there is a chance they would have lasted longer in the draft. Because we know the names Poulter, McMahon and McCreery we have an attachment to them.

If they had turned into Harry, Jack and Mack on draft day we would now be looking at those 3 with hope and expectation, Jen2310 would be giving great reports of their progress and we would be arguing the toss about their potential. There would have been 3 kids to talk about. In addition the career differences of kids pick in the 30's and 40's compared to the 50's and 60's is less stark than the top 10 kids to a kid in the 30's. We lack kids picked at the pointy end of the draft. While that doesnt guarantee success one thing is certain no top line contending team has been built by largely neglecting top 10 and 20 picks which we have done over the last 6 drafts. Out 1st rounder this year would have provided avenue to add an additional highly rated kid. Thats the kicker for me.

What in essence what has now turned into pick 2 got us was the ability to move up to higher picks with our last 3 picks in the draft and a few points for Daicos

There is no doubt in hindsight it was a bad move

If we had pick 2 to trade and also had 3 kids, not the 3 we have now, with 12 months already put into their development. We would swap 2 for something much better than what we got.

We could have traded pick 2 for Adam Cerra this year.
Most likely would have to offload some other players to squeeze him in (salary cap).

 

[Gone Critical]

We could have traded pick 2 for Adam Cerra this year.
Most likely would have to offload some other players to squeeze him in (salary cap).

Paying his salary the issue there but yes

 

[Prochard123]

Only in hindsight and even then we won't know until we see how the kids end up.

In what world is trading a future 1st when you're a declining middle-of-the-pack team for pick 24 + pick 30 acceptable?

How did we expect the team to perform after losing Treloar, Stephenson, Phillips (in probably our weakest line) for no senior player in return?

The recruitment team simply wanted to save their jobs, and it was at the cost of our future.