Analysis Should we really be spewing over trading out our 2021 picks?

[Ugene41]

There's different ways to have used the first and second round draft picks this year without having those absorbed for Daicos, your view is just an opinion. It's not categorical and as you can see here many argue the opposing options quite sensibly.

I would love for you or any poster to outline a full end game scenario for how you would've traded once we got past the first round last year with Henry and Macrae and a bid was coming for Reef at pick 25 (which was when we made the moves to trade our second round this year for points to match Reef and then once Reef was locked away, went to trade our 2021 first). Not just a standalone trade in terms of what's the maximum value we could've gotten for those picks but an end game scenario post 2021 draft period considering our options are limited this year needing to match for Daicos.

Would honestly love to see whether there's a scenario that would've resulted in a significantly better outcome for us.

 

[lenny&carl]

There's different ways to have used the first and second round draft picks this year without having those absorbed for Daicos, your view is just an opinion. It's not categorical and as you can see here many argue the opposing options quite sensibly.

What *did* we do with our '21 2nd rounder? Did it get blended down in the Stevo/Treloar shmozzle I guess?

I've seen people argue sensibly that if we'd hung on to the pick we could have traded it for more than what we got, seeing as it turned out to be pick two. I have not seen people argue sensibly that anyone should have predicted that outcome and therefore a mistake was made.

But even the first point - that we could've got more in return - is debatable. That's the question that Ugene has correct, and that many posters get miles wrong because they run with just one or two pieces of the puzzle and glue it together with attitude.

 

[lenny&carl]

Aaah, that's what we did with our '21 2nd.

 

[Trickster]

I would love for you or any poster to outline a full end game scenario for how you would've traded once we got past the first round last year with Henry and Macrae and a bid was coming for Reef at pick 25 (which was when we made the moves to trade our second round this year for points to match Reef and then once Reef was locked away, went to trade our 2021 first). Not just a standalone trade in terms of what's the maximum value we could've gotten for those picks but an end game scenario post 2021 draft period considering our options are limited this year needing to match for Daicos.

Would honestly love to see whether there's a scenario that would've resulted in a significantly better outcome for us.

Not sure how many different scenarios people can continually outline for you. We already had Ollie and Fin locked away with our 2020 first round selections, all we needed was to trade 1 of our 2 2021 seconds (ours or WB) for 2 2020 thirds and that would have been enough for Reef, to answer your question.

But the club chose to further trade out of the 2021 draft and have further picks in 2020, selecting Poulter (touted 20-40), McMahon (touted as late or rookie) and then McCreery.

Had we not gone down that path, we would have had most of our 2021 picks (incl 1st / 2nd rounders) and the WB second rounder). I, and many others, have given you countless scenarios on how those picks could have been used (future trades / current players / combo etc) to ensure we would have had enough Daicos / Dib pts - which we don't have now anyhow - and to utilise those picks. Haven't heard your suggestions on how we make those points up.

I also gave you scenarios where Rich or Geel gave up picks 14 and 16 a few years back for Pick 10. So even if it was Pick 6 or 8, it had value and would have given us options for either 2022, trading for 2021 players or trading back into 2021 after acquiring Daicos, let alone the other 2 second rounders.

So the club effectively brought in Poulter, McMahon and McCreery at the expense of having picks to maneouvre this year. It was a risk trading out of this years draft and its now backfired.

So here we are.

If you still don't acknowledge the potential for different scenarios that would have resulted in better outcomes then we'll continue to agree to disagree.

 

[Ugene41]

Not sure how many different scenarios people can continually outline for you. We already had Ollie and Fin locked away with our 2020 first round selections, all we needed was to trade 1 of our 2 2021 seconds (ours or WB) for 2 2020 thirds and that would have been enough for Reef, to answer your question.

But the club chose to further trade out of the 2021 draft and have further picks in 2020, selecting Poulter (touted 20-40), McMahon (touted as late or rookie) and then McCreery.

Had we not gone down that path, we would have had most of our 2021 picks (incl 1st / 2nd rounders) and the WB second rounder). I, and many others, have given you countless scenarios on how those picks could have been used (future trades / current players / combo etc) to ensure we would have had enough Daicos / Dib pts - which we don't have now anyhow - and to utilise those picks. Haven't heard your suggestions on how we make those points up.

I also gave you scenarios where Rich or Geel gave up picks 14 and 16 a few years back for Pick 10. So even if it was Pick 6 or 8, it had value and would have given us options for either 2022, trading for 2021 players or trading back into 2021 after acquiring Daicos, let alone the other 2 second rounders.

So the club effectively brought in Poulter, McMahon and McCreery at the expense of having picks to maneouvre this year. It was a risk trading out of this years draft and its now backfired.

So here we are.

If you still don't acknowledge the potential for different scenarios that would have resulted in better outcomes then we'll continue to agree to disagree.

Your first two paragraphs directly contradict each other. We traded out our 2021 2nd round (kept WB 2nd round) to get the points in 2020 to match Reef. How in your scenario do we still have both 2021 2nd rounds (ours plus WB) whilst still getting Reef? Or are you suggesting we pass on Reef last year?

Yep a realistic scenario is trading out our pick 2 this year for two later first rounds. Looking at this year's draft order, Richmond has pick 7 and 16. Maybe we can entice them to trade their pick 16 for a 5 pick upgrade from 7 to 2. Daicos gets bid on meaning we need 2400 points to match. Pick 7 is 1650 points so that's gone and then 750 points is taken from pick 16 pushing that back to pick 50. So we're then left with pick 33 (WB) and our third round pick at 39 plus the pick 50 (originally pick 16) in this year's draft. Is that better than having pick 30/31 last year with Poulter and McMahon?

Let's say we got pick 7 and 16 from Richmond and look to protect pick 7 by trading it into next year for a future mid table first round pick. We use pick 16 (1067 points) plus pick 33 (563 points) and our third round pick 39 (446 points) to match. We're still in deficit by c.350 points so we need to trade our future 3rd round into this year to protect our first next year. But we end up with an additional mid table first round in 2022. That's the end game as I've been saying all along. Whether posters prefer a mid table first round pick in 2022 or Poulter (who we rated top 20) and McMahon in 2020 is going to be a matter of opinion. I lean towards Poulter and McMahon. But to suggest that we would get much better than a mid 2022 first round simply ignores the limitations we have around having to match for Daicos this year. Yes if we didn't have Daicos this year, trading out pick 2 for what we received would be a stupid decision but the only reason we did it is because we knew we had to so we were never going to get full value.

Please feel free to point out another end game scenario.

Edit: Just to answer your question around how we make up our draft deficit this year. Trading out our pick 2 last year helped net us an additional ~800-900 points for Daicos this year but we're still c.700 points short which is the equivalent of a second round. The easiest way to make that up is to trade our future 2nd into points this year to protect our first next year. So net result compared to your scenario is that we would have an additional 2022 mid first rounder and upgraded our 2022 third round to the second round. Vs Poulter and McMahon in 2020. Again matter of opinion what posters prefer. But I see value in knowing exactly who you can pick in the draft (Poulter who was rated top 20 on our draft board) vs a slightly higher draft number in 2 years time where you have no idea what the talent pool will be like and how the draft night will unfold.

It's why Adelaide were willing to trade their future 3rd round to us to move up 1 spot in the draft in the second round. According to you, would that be the most stupid trade in the world purely looking at draft numbers in and out?

 

[Trickster]

Looking at this year's draft order, Richmond has pick 7 and 16.

Yep I know Rich have 2 first rounders, I pointed this out to you in the other thread when you questioned who would swap a first rounder for 2 firsts. Glad you're paying attention.

 

[Ugene41]

Yep I know Rich have 2 first rounders, I pointed this out to you in the other thread when you questioned who would swap a first rounder for 2 firsts. Glad you're paying attention.

Too bad you didn't pay attention when I said even if we traded for them we would never have ended up with two first rounders as it would be eaten up by the Daicos bid.

 

[regpies]

I am flabbergasted at how people don’t understand how the draft matching system works and not understanding that had we held pick 2...it would have been swallowed whole on any Daicos bid unless we offloaded it for future pick in 2022.

Im flabbergasted people don’t understand we could’ve traded pick 2 for two 1st rd picks instead of two 2nd rd picks.

Or done a deal with North so we had pick 1 to guarantee a pick before a Daicos bid.

We didn’t have to trade the pick last year, it was stupid, I said that at the time, it could’ve been traded this year for a far better return.

 

[Ugene41]

Im flabbergasted people don’t understand we could’ve traded pick 2 for two 1st rd picks instead of two 2nd rd picks.

Or done a deal with North so we had pick 1 to guarantee a pick before a Daicos bid.

We didn’t have to trade the pick last year, it was stupid, I said that at the time, it could’ve been traded this year for a far better return.

And then how do we find the 2400 points needed to match Daicos?

No one has been able to provide an answer to that when dismissing our pick 2 trade that netted us an additional ~800-900 points (~Pick 20 equivalent) this year in addition to the 2x 2nd rd picks last year.

It's like people assume we can magically get Daicos whilst keeping our pick 2 value.

 

[HFF]

Im flabbergasted people don’t understand we could’ve traded pick 2 for two 1st rd picks instead of two 2nd rd picks.

Or done a deal with North so we had pick 1 to guarantee a pick before a Daicos bid.

We didn’t have to trade the pick last year, it was stupid, I said that at the time, it could’ve been traded this year for a far better return.

In what world is North going to even contemplate a deal that gives away the best 2 kids in the draft?
Its fantasy stuff

Nobody has 2 first round picks in 2022 either to give us....

This whole notion is stupid

 

[Trickster]

Too bad you didn't pay attention when I said even if we traded for them we would never have ended up with two first rounders as it would be eaten up by the Daicos bid.

Here's an 'end-game' scenario for you since you cannot fathom high level details. We already have Ollie / Fin - and Reef trading 2021 second for sufficient pts (happy to have picked up whoever with later picks and run risk on Poulter, McCreery and McMahon).

We kept Pick 2 and Pick 20 as they turned out also having our standard 3rd and 4th rounders.

We trade 2 to Sydney for Dawson and Stephens AS AN EXAMPLE (ring a bell... cap relief they keep Parker yadi yada) and also get their 3rd rounder. We trade out Sier, Cox, Lynch which those 3 would get us at least another 3 3rd rounders, so 4 more in total.

So we have 1 2nd rounder, and 5 3rd rounders and 1 4th rounder. Also have flexibility on what we do with our second given those are enough points for Daicos and Dib, we do not go into 2022 deficit and we pick up Dawson / Stephens at the expense of Poulter, McMahon and McCreery (assuming we couldn't pick them later in 2020). Can also pick up Lipinski in PSD.

So we get Daicos, Dib, Dawson, Stephens and Lipinski keeping 2022 picks preserved.

As we stand at the moment, we're still potentially 600 pts down for Daicos let alone Dib.

Numerous ways to skin a cat, bring in high end talent and replenish the list without having to sell the farm which is pretty obvious what we did. 1 eg of an 'end-game' scenario.

 

[johncitizen]

Not sure how many different scenarios people can continually outline for you. We already had Ollie and Fin locked away with our 2020 first round selections, all we needed was to trade 1 of our 2 2021 seconds (ours or WB) for 2 2020 thirds and that would have been enough for Reef, to answer your question.

But the club chose to further trade out of the 2021 draft and have further picks in 2020, selecting Poulter (touted 20-40), McMahon (touted as late or rookie) and then McCreery.

Had we not gone down that path, we would have had most of our 2021 picks (incl 1st / 2nd rounders) and the WB second rounder). I, and many others, have given you countless scenarios on how those picks could have been used (future trades / current players / combo etc) to ensure we would have had enough Daicos / Dib pts - which we don't have now anyhow - and to utilise those picks. Haven't heard your suggestions on how we make those points up.

I also gave you scenarios where Rich or Geel gave up picks 14 and 16 a few years back for Pick 10. So even if it was Pick 6 or 8, it had value and would have given us options for either 2022, trading for 2021 players or trading back into 2021 after acquiring Daicos, let alone the other 2 second rounders.

So the club effectively brought in Poulter, McMahon and McCreery at the expense of having picks to maneouvre this year. It was a risk trading out of this years draft and its now backfired.

So here we are.

If you still don't acknowledge the potential for different scenarios that would have resulted in better outcomes then we'll continue to agree to disagree.

And then how do we find the 2400 points needed to match Daicos?

No one has been able to provide an answer to that when dismissing our pick 2 trade that netted us an additional ~800-900 points (~Pick 20 equivalent) this year in addition to the 2x 2nd rd picks last year.

It's like people assume we can magically get Daicos whilst keeping our pick 2 value.

Agree mate. Our recruitment guys new what they were doing to get rid of pick 2.

 

[magpies42]

We went into the 2020 draft with …

Pick 14 which we spent directly on Henry
Pick 16 which we spent directly on Macrae
2021 Collingwood third round pick (446 points) which we didn’t spend (still holding)
2021 Bulldogs second round pick (~563 points) which we didn’t spend (still holding)

That all seems reasonable and boring so far

We also went into the 2020 draft period with …

Pick 65 (90 points)
Pick 66 (80 points)
Pick 68 (59 points)
Pick 75 (0 points)

2021 Collingwood first round (pick 2, 2517 points) <- spewing?
2021 Collingwood second round (pick 21, 878 points) <- spewing?

And so we also came out of the 2020 draft with …

Pick 23: Reef McInnis (matched bid, 815 points minus discount = 652 points)
Pick 30: Caleb Poulter (played 11 games in 2021)
Pick 31: Liam McMahon
Pick 44: Beau McCreery (played 13 games in 2021)

2021 Freo third round (347 points)
2021 Adelaide third round (412 points)

So how do those decisions look today?

The points we came out with for the Freo and Adelaide third round picks come close to cancelling out our second round pick we spent.

And sure, we were always going to match the bid on Reef McInnis, but we would have had to go into points deficit unless we sacrificed a 2021 pick somehow.

So all that basically means that for our 2021 first round pick (now pick 2) and some junk picks in the 60’s …

… we got four very promising young lads, all of whom now have a year of development, and two of whom now have a body of AFL experience …

… Question: Would we really prefer to have forgone that, in order to hold pick 2 in this draft instead? (And North likely forcing us to use it on N.Daicos?)

I reckon we’ve ended up alright

We wouldn’t have been forced to use it because we could have traded it for a player or picks. Plenty of examples where clubs have traded picks in a similar situation prior to or during the draft.

Time will tell whether the move was a winner or not.

 

[Trickster]

Im flabbergasted people don’t understand we could’ve traded pick 2 for two 1st rd picks instead of two 2nd rd picks.

Or done a deal with North so we had pick 1 to guarantee a pick before a Daicos bid.

We didn’t have to trade the pick last year, it was stupid, I said that at the time, it could’ve been traded this year for a far better return.

Some people have blinkers on when it comes to this and can't seem to understand pick 2 didn't have to be absorbed on Daicos and we could have traded in more picks / points.

 

[Ugene41]

Here's an 'end-game' scenario for you since you cannot fathom high level details. We already have Ollie / Fin - and Reef trading 2021 second for sufficient pts (happy to have picked up whoever with later picks and run risk on Poulter, McCreery and McMahon).

We kept Pick 2 and Pick 20 as they turned out also having our standard 3rd and 4th rounders.

We trade 2 to Sydney for Dawson and Stephens AS AN EXAMPLE (ring a bell... cap relief they keep Parker yadi yada) and also get their 3rd rounder. We trade out Sier, Cox, Lynch which those 3 would get us at least another 3 3rd rounders, so 4 more in total.

So we have 1 2nd rounder, and 5 3rd rounders and 1 4th rounder. Also have flexibility on what we do with our second given those are enough points for Daicos and Dib, we do not go into 2022 deficit and we pick up Dawson / Stephens at the expense of Poulter, McMahon and McCreery (assuming we couldn't pick them later in 2020). Can also pick up Lipinski in PSD.

So we get Daicos, Dib, Dawson, Stephens and Lipinski keeping 2022 picks preserved.

As we stand at the moment, we're still potentially 600 pts down for Daicos let alone Dib.

Numerous ways to skin a cat, bring in high end talent and replenish the list without having to sell the farm which is pretty obvious what we did. 1 eg of an 'end-game' scenario.

Ignoring all the impracticalities of salary cap and open list spots to those points picks, lets take this new scenario. If it's as easy as being able to trade Sier, Cox and Lynch for three 3rd rounders nothing is stopping us doing that in our current situation. Our draft hand this year would then be 1 2nd rounder and 6 third rounders. So better than your scenario and we will have more than enough points for Daicos and Dib and will preserve all 2022 picks. We can still pick up Lipinski in the PSD.

Net result is Dawson and Stephens instead of Poulter and McMahon. But if we had the salary cap to pay the combined ~$800k for Dawson and Stephens, why wouldn't we just sign Luke Parker as a RFA for $750k p.a. and have Poulter and McMahon developing as young talent in the background. We get a proven AA who's much better than Dawson and better list profile for our salary cap as once Poulter and McMahon develops and starts demanding higher salaries, Parker's contract will be done.

So trading pick 2 last year means we can get Parker/Poulter/McMahon/Lipinski which is unquestionably better than Dawson/Stephenson/Lipinski.

All ridiculous of course given our salary cap situation and the fact we were actively trading out salary for draft picks.

 

[regpies]

In what world is North going to even contemplate a deal that gives away the best 2 kids in the draft?
Its fantasy stuff

Nobody has 2 first round picks in 2022 either to give us....

This whole notion is stupid

Who said only in 2022?

We could’ve got two 1st rd picks from a mid table team like St Kilda, Eagles or Bombers, one this year around pick 9-12 that is the Daicos points and one next year.

We give North pick 2 and a 2nd rd pick for pick 1 they get a 2nd rd pick for hardly anything. Their pick 1 isgoing to end up pick 3 anyway after Daicos and Darcy bids.

Could’ve trade pick 2 for a GWS or GC kid.

Endless possibilities aside from the magic beans we ended up with.

 

[HFF]

Who said only in 2022?

We could’ve got two 1st rd picks from a mid table team like St Kilda, Eagles or Bombers, one this year around pick 9-12 that is the Daicos points and one next year.

We give North pick 2 and a 2nd rd pick for pick 1 they get a 2nd rd pick for hardly anything. Their pick 1 isgoing to end up pick 3 anyway after Daicos and Darcy bids.

Could’ve trade pick 2 for a GWS or GC kid.

Endless possibilities aside from the magic beans we ended up with.

Dude in what fantasy world is north trading pick 1 for pick 2 and A second rounder?
They aren’t letting The top two Players both out of their hands.

Secondly trading in a pick in this draft....gets eaten up by a bid on Daicos.
So that pick becomes effectively useless.

Trading for a player yes....that could be done but which player?
You can’t just say trade in a player when looking at the market there really isn’t much out there that’s enticing

 

[regpies]

Dude in what fantasy world is north trading pick 1 for pick 2 and A second rounder?
They aren’t letting The top two Players both out of their hands.

Secondly trading in a pick in this draft....gets eaten up by a bid on Daicos.
So that pick becomes effectively useless.

Trading for a player yes....that could be done but which player?
You can’t just say trade in a player when looking at the market there really isn’t much out there that’s enticing

We currently don’t have enough points for a Daicos bid let alone any other picks in this draft. So an extra 1st rd pick is pretty handy to use on Daicos which means we have other selections in this draft that won’t be after pick 70 to get our 3 pick minimum.

It’s also a pick that we could trade out for a future first with a different team, then try and trade that pick again into this years draft after Daicos has been selected.

You seem to have zero concept of coming up with different ideas of what can be done or at least attempted with having a pick as valuable as pick 2.

 

[HFF]

We currently don’t have enough points for a Daicos bid let alone any other picks in this draft. So an extra 1st rd pick is pretty handy to use on Daicos which means we have other selections in this draft that won’t be after pick 70 to get our 3 pick minimum.

It’s also a pick that we could trade out for a future first with a different team, then try and trade that pick again into this years draft after Daicos has been selected.

You seem to have zero concept of coming up with different ideas of what can be done or at least attempted with having a pick as valuable as pick 2.

You lost me at your first sentence again.....you’re failing to grasp how this points thing works.

 

[Ugene41]

We currently don’t have enough points for a Daicos bid let alone any other picks in this draft. So an extra 1st rd pick is pretty handy to use on Daicos which means we have other selections in this draft that won’t be after pick 70 to get our 3 pick minimum.

It’s also a pick that we could trade out for a future first with a different team, then try and trade that pick again into this years draft after Daicos has been selected.

You seem to have zero concept of coming up with different ideas of what can be done or at least attempted with having a pick as valuable as pick 2.

Read my scenarios above. Even trading pick 2 for Richmond's pick 7 and 16 isn't enough to cover a Daicos bid without having pick 7 completely swallowed up and pick 16 pushed back to pick 50. We're then left with pick 33, pick 39 and pick 50 as our draft hand this year. Not sure how that's better than having pick 30/31 last year and no picks this year after matching Daicos.

Try actually calculating the points values to these picks and the amount needed to match Daicos. It's going to be pretty hard to get the points needed without it inevitably eating into the value of our original pick 2. Which is why our actual pick 2 trade was used to help us get an additional 800-900 points to be used this year in addition to Poulter/McMahon.

 

[sr36]

And sure, we were always going to match the bid on Reef McInnis, but we would have had to go into points deficit unless we sacrificed a 2021 pick somehow.

I don't think this is actually right. Before the draft people were saying that we had enough points for pick 25 and he would have gone later than he did, as we asked GWS to bid on him. Are you sure you've got the picks we had and points right?

So during the draft, we ended up trading pick 2 and 20 from 2021 draft. In return, we got two future 3rd rounders and 2020 picks which we used on Poulter, McMahon and McCreery. We can be confident that we wouldn't have gotten Poulter without the trade. We may have still got McMahon and McCreery. And if we didn't, we would have gotten two others kids who may be just as likely.

There's no way we'd do that if we could have our time back.
.

 

[lenny&carl]

Because that's not what we did!

 

[lenny&carl]

And subjectively speaking, this year's pick 2 isn't as valuable as they usually are. It probably gets you the 4th best kid in the draft, due to likely bids on D&D. Apparently, this years crop has a clear top 3, and then a 4-10 you can throw a blanket over, (or so the story goes.) So pick 2 gets you a kid who may be there at pick 7. In a different year pick 2 might guarantee you one of Roughy or Buddy, so that's betterer, especially with the hindsight.

The value of a pick 2, or 6 or 33 etc, varies a bit from year to year.

 

[lenny&carl]

At the end, you left out the fact we swapped our '21 2nd round pick for the points to match the Reef bid. The bid was at pick 23, and our 2nd rounder this year will fall around about there, nominally pick 20 but being pushed latter by father/sons etc. So really not a tragic outcome there. Again we may have got a little bit more for it this year, but we had to pay for him somehow, and they were v.happy with that price apparently.

 

[Gone Critical]

Agree with 76woodenspooners.

I've covered the scenario ad nauseam in the Trade & Draft thread. But essentially the scenario boils down to whether we would have preferred a mid first round draft pick in 2022 or Poulter and McMahon in 2020. Posters can make up their own minds but I'm willing to back Poulter/McMahon as the right choice given the need to bring in a strong cohort of talent all in at once after trading away first round picks in so many of our recent years. We couldn't afford to wait another 2 years to have that influx of first rounders.

We are never going to use pick 2 to target a player like Cerra in 2021. If we had the salary cap why would we not have just kept Stephenson in that scenario who's a better player currently (excluding his off field issues). We are resetting our salary cap for a tilt from 2023 onwards.

In the same way you would have backed in the two different players we would have drafted in in their place if we had kept pick 2 (one of which may well have still been McMahon)