Simonds Stadium advantage hides Geelong's issues

[Scorpus]

Geelong's home ground advantage at Simonds Stadium masks the club's issues and has contributed to their strong home and away finishes in the past few seasons, but their poor record in finals.

This is Geelong's record against top 8 teams since the start of 2015

Record at Simonds: 10 wins, 4 losses
Record at other grounds: 6 wins, 11 losses, 1 draw

Spoiler: Full breakdown

At Simonds Stadium
2017: Port Adelaide (2 point win), Adelaide (22 point win), Sydney (46 point loss), Richmond (14 point win), GWS (44 point win)
2016: West Coast (44 point win), GWS (10 point win), Sydney (38 point loss), Adelaide (30 point win), Western Bulldogs (25 point win)
2015: Fremantle (44 point loss), North Melbourne (16 point loss), Western Bulldogs (8 point win), Sydney (32 point win), Adelaide (39 point win)

At other stadiums
2017: West Coast (13 point loss), GWS (draw), Essendon (17 point loss), Adelaide (21 point loss), Richmond (final 51 point loss)
2016: Hawthorn (30 point win), GWS (13 point loss), Adelaide (26 point win), North Melbourne (31 point win), Western Bulldogs (57 point win), Hawthorn (final 2 point win), Sydney (final 37 point loss)
2015: Hawthorn (62 point loss), Richmond (9 point win), Sydney (43 point loss), West Coast (56 point loss), North Melbourne (41 point loss), Hawthorn (36 point loss)

Compare that to Sydney who have this record:
SCG: 6 wins, 6 losses
Other: 11 wins, 11 losses

Hawthorn:
MCG: 7 wins, 10 losses
Other: 11 wins, 6 losses, 1 draw

All three teams have made the top 4 twice in the past 3 years. Their overall record against top 8 sides is very similar:

Geelong: 16 wins, 15 losses, 1 draw
Sydney: 17 wins, 17 losses
Hawthorn: 18 wins, 16 losses, 1 draw

Geelong have a particularly strong home ground advantage, but their large amount of wins at home masks their inability to win at other grounds. Sydney and Hawthorn are much stronger at other grounds, and have been more successful in finals despite finishing the H&A season in similar positions to Geelong.

 

[HR Roughnstuf]

Hawks have a home ground advantage in Tassie that helps their record but they still got it done in finals.

Geelong just aren't very good. 2017 is the softest AFL year I have ever seen which is why they were able to finish 2nd on the ladder. But they have choked in finals ever since Selwood became captain.

 

[Anja_Nees]

Finals form is clearly an issue now. They may win this week coming but if it's Sydney you wouldn't exactly back them given recent history.

If they lose they will have made finals five of six years since the flag, four of those top four, and won only two finals.

It's been raised elsewhere so this thread will probably be moved but I really don't think they've been a top four quality side for years and yes, their advantage at Simmons has masked it.

They've done well to maintain their form as they have but I think the mature age raid of 2015 has papered over the cracks as well.

 

[1234fivesix]

So Hawthorn being good against top teams away from the MCG put them in a good place for finals which are mainly held at the MCG?

 

[The 747]

Geelong's home ground advantage at Simonds Stadium masks the club's issues and has contributed to their strong home and away finishes in the past few seasons, but their poor record in finals.

This is Geelong's record against top 8 teams since the start of 2015

Record at Simonds: 10 wins, 4 losses
Record at other grounds: 6 wins, 11 losses, 1 draw

Spoiler: Full breakdown

At Simonds Stadium
2017: Port Adelaide (2 point win), Adelaide (22 point win), Sydney (46 point loss), Richmond (14 point win), GWS (44 point win)
2016: West Coast (44 point win), GWS (10 point win), Sydney (38 point loss), Adelaide (30 point win), Western Bulldogs (25 point win)
2015: Fremantle (44 point loss), North Melbourne (16 point loss), Western Bulldogs (8 point win), Sydney (32 point win), Adelaide (39 point win)

At other stadiums
2017: West Coast (13 point loss), GWS (draw), Essendon (17 point loss), Adelaide (21 point loss), Richmond (final 51 point loss)
2016: Hawthorn (30 point win), GWS (13 point loss), Adelaide (26 point win), North Melbourne (31 point win), Western Bulldogs (57 point win), Hawthorn (final 2 point win), Sydney (final 37 point loss)
2015: Hawthorn (62 point loss), Richmond (9 point win), Sydney (43 point loss), West Coast (56 point loss), North Melbourne (41 point loss), Hawthorn (36 point loss)

Compare that to Sydney who have this record:
SCG: 6 wins, 6 losses
Other: 11 wins, 11 losses

Hawthorn:
MCG: 7 wins, 10 losses
Other: 11 wins, 6 losses, 1 draw

All three teams have made the top 4 twice in the past 3 years.

Geelong have a particularly strong home ground advantage, but their large amount of wins at home masks their inability to win at other grounds. Sydney and Hawthorn are much stronger at other grounds, and have been more successful in finals despite finishing the H&A season in similar positions to Geelong.

News just in team plays better at home.

 

[Scorpus]

News just in team plays better at home.

That's not the point.

Geelong play particularly well at home, and worse than average away from home, relative to other teams who finished in a similar position.

 

[The 747]

Finals form is clearly an issue now. They may win this week coming but if it's Sydney you wouldn't exactly back them given recent history.

If they lose they will have made finals five of six years since the flag, four of those top four, and won only two finals.

It's been raised elsewhere so this thread will probably be moved but I really don't think they've been a top four quality side for years and yes, their advantage at Simmons has masked it.

They've done well to maintain their form as they have but I think the mature age raid of 2015 has papered over the cracks as well.

I think the expansion teams have slowed the rate other teams have improved at, which ia we are still finishing H&A in similar places with a vastly inferior team to the past.

 

[radiojake]

This thread us redundant

Team wins more games at home ground than at away

How is this a thread? ??

 

[The 747]

That's not the point.

Geelong play particularly well at Simonds, and worse than average away from Simonds, relative to other teams who finished in a similar position.

So our record is inferior to sides which have played in two and four grand finals since we last played in one? That would seem self evident and nothing to do with our home ground.

 

[Luv_our_club]

So Hawthorn being good against top teams away from the MCG put them in a good place for finals which are mainly held at the MCG?

No the OP is saying that winning away from your preferred ground is an indication of a teams strength and that strength translates to winning in finals. Whereas not winning away from your preferred ground indicates a sides weakness that is revealed in finals.

 

[Scorpus]

So our record is inferior to sides which have played in two and four grand finals since we last played in one? That would seem self evident and nothing to do with our home ground.

But Geelong's record is not inferior.

Against top 8 teams only and including finals (2015-2017):

Geelong: 16 wins, 15 losses, 1 draw
Sydney: 17 wins, 17 losses
Hawthorn: 18 wins, 16 losses, 1 draw

 

[HaroLad]

Simmons Stadium ADVANTAGE!!!

You mean Geelong have a home ground that they play home games on?

That is disgusting by the AFL, they should be stripped of this unfair advantage and be forced to play at one of the MCG or Etihad for their home games like every other Melbourne club.

 

[Anja_Nees]

I think the expansion teams have slowed the rate other teams have improved at, which ia we are still finishing H&A in similar places with a vastly inferior team to the past.

Yeah let's be honest - the current lineup doesn't match the 2007-11 lineup with Chappy, Ablett*, Bartel, Ling etc but the ladder finishes are similar.

It's partly Simmonds but the dearth of first rounders for most clubs a few years back probably means some contenders are light on for A grade talent.

 

[frednirk]

BREAKING NEWS!
Team has home ground advantage when playing at home.

More at 6pm.

 

[Jables]

BREAKING NEWS!
Team has home ground advantage when playing at home.

More at 6pm.

I had this post written in my head instantly when I saw the title haha.

Imagine a Melbourne team playing better at the Melbourne Cricket Ground than a non Melbourne team, crazy stuff to ponder.

 

[sprockets]

Geelong's home ground advantage at Simonds Stadium masks the club's issues and has contributed to their strong home and away finishes in the past few seasons, but their poor record in finals.

This is Geelong's record against top 8 teams since the start of 2015

Record at Simonds: 10 wins, 4 losses
Record at other grounds: 6 wins, 11 losses, 1 draw

Spoiler: Full breakdown

At Simonds Stadium
2017: Port Adelaide (2 point win), Adelaide (22 point win), Sydney (46 point loss), Richmond (14 point win), GWS (44 point win)
2016: West Coast (44 point win), GWS (10 point win), Sydney (38 point loss), Adelaide (30 point win), Western Bulldogs (25 point win)
2015: Fremantle (44 point loss), North Melbourne (16 point loss), Western Bulldogs (8 point win), Sydney (32 point win), Adelaide (39 point win)

At other stadiums
2017: West Coast (13 point loss), GWS (draw), Essendon (17 point loss), Adelaide (21 point loss), Richmond (final 51 point loss)
2016: Hawthorn (30 point win), GWS (13 point loss), Adelaide (26 point win), North Melbourne (31 point win), Western Bulldogs (57 point win), Hawthorn (final 2 point win), Sydney (final 37 point loss)
2015: Hawthorn (62 point loss), Richmond (9 point win), Sydney (43 point loss), West Coast (56 point loss), North Melbourne (41 point loss), Hawthorn (36 point loss)

Compare that to Sydney who have this record:
SCG: 6 wins, 6 losses
Other: 11 wins, 11 losses

Hawthorn:
MCG: 7 wins, 10 losses
Other: 11 wins, 6 losses, 1 draw

All three teams have made the top 4 twice in the past 3 years. Their overall record against top 8 sides is very similar:

Geelong: 16 wins, 15 losses, 1 draw
Sydney: 17 wins, 17 losses
Hawthorn: 18 wins, 16 losses, 1 draw

Geelong have a particularly strong home ground advantage, but their large amount of wins at home masks their inability to win at other grounds. Sydney and Hawthorn are much stronger at other grounds, and have been more successful in finals despite finishing the H&A season in similar positions to Geelong.

Well done, excellent analysis. Naturally they want the biggest advantage they can get but it's an unfair advantage in that their home ground is built to disadvantage visiting teams.

 

[Glenno23]

Simmons Stadium ADVANTAGE!!!

You mean Geelong have a home ground that they play home games on?

That is disgusting by the AFL, they should be stripped of this unfair advantage and be forced to play at one of the MCG or Etihad for their home games like every other Melbourne club.

They have a couple actually. Simonds is one. MCG is another where you also play home games....

 

[Scorpus]

Well done, excellent analysis. Naturally they want the biggest advantage they can get but it's an unfair advantage in that their home ground is built to disadvantage visiting teams.

I'm not saying that Geelong have an unfair home ground advantage at all. They have a home ground. It's their right to play there, train there, and use it however they please. Plenty of teams have a home ground advantage, particularly those outside Victoria.

What I am saying, though, is their home ground advantage is so strong it inflates their home and away record to appear better than the team actually performs. Through having an excellent home record, it masks the fact Geelong's non-Simonds record isn't so good, when you look purely at how many wins/losses they have in the season.

Contrast this to highly successful teams like Sydney, who also have a home ground advantage at the SCG, but maintain a decent (comparable) away record. In fact Sydney's home advantage isn't as strong as Simonds, but they're still a great team by managing to win away.

Even though Geelong and Sydney have a very similar record against top 8 teams over the last 3 years, Geelong isn't as successful in finals because their ability is inflated by their record at Simonds, whereas Sydney can play well at other grounds and this leads to better performances at a range of venues in finals.

 

[Conan Troutman]

Well done, excellent analysis. Naturally they want the biggest advantage they can get but it's an unfair advantage in that their home ground is built to disadvantage visiting teams.

Talking about unfair advantages, this year Richmond has played at the MCG 6 more times than Geelong. Geelong has played Kardina Park 6 more times than Richmond.

 

[DrMike]

Simmons Stadium ADVANTAGE!!!

You mean Geelong have a home ground that they play home games on?

That is disgusting by the AFL, they should be stripped of this unfair advantage and be forced to play at one of the MCG or Etihad for their home games like every other Melbourne club.

Give it a rest

You already get the privilege of playing at the MCG twice a year, should be grateful you got to play a final at our home ground

 

[HaroLad]

MCG is another where you also play home games....

Do we have a choice in the matter like clubs like Hawthorn who sell their home games to Tasmania?

 

[BTs Nana]

Geelong just aren't very good. 2017 is the softest AFL year I have ever seen which is why they were able to finish 2nd on the ladder.

People that peddle this "2017 is a soft year" are just in another world.

2017 is more even than other years in a competition that prides itself on equalization.

The fact there is no teams light years ahead of others is in fact harder for any team to win.

In a year dominated by 1 or 2 teams it is harder for remaining teams to compete and in fact EASIER (aka SOFTER) for those top teams.

It seems that it's the fans of those fallen great teams that try to say it's soft - when it reality they miss their previous success because they were so far ahead of the pack.

In this series there is only a couple of sides arguably making up the numbers as it was last year. Therefore it's HARDER for any one team to win it all.

It's a cycle and in the next couple of years you'll see a breakaway group again as we always do but those years will be SOFTER for those top clubs than these years.

 

[Glenno23]

Do we have a choice in the matter like clubs like Hawthorn who sell their home games to Tasmania?

Different state. AFL rules clearly dictate that it's home state

 

[StillWaiting5689]

Given you are using poor showing in finals to demonstrate the advantage I would be interested to see how many of these finals have been played away from their home grounds for each of these teams and what the win rates are home and away.

 

[HaroLad]

Different state. AFL rules clearly dictate that it's home state

Maybe the AFL rules are wrong?