Stats questions

[The Passenger]

Re: Post your stats questions here

can someone explain to me what the difference between these are:

contestes possession v hard ball get.

clearance v 1st possession. i'm guessing the clearance is just getting the ball out of a ruck situation regardless of how it gets out, whether that's the ruckmen hitting it 15 metres clear (is that a hit out and a clearance stat), or a guy dropping it and it rolling off his thigh into the clear... or does a clearance have to be a clean stat out of the contest??

and a 1st possession is, naturally, the first possession after a ruck contest.

obviously a big chunk of the time one disposal will mark both a clearance and a first possession. however, say the ruckmen knocks it 20 metres clear that's the hit out and clearance and the guy who gets onto it and does whatever gets the first possession stat??

 

[ClarkeM]

Re: Post your stats questions here

can someone explain to me what the difference between these are:

contestes possession v hard ball get.

Contested possession would be a possession where the player is contested or may be forced to give up the ball whereas a hard ball get is actually obtaining possession of the ball amongst a disputed field of play.

clearance v 1st possession. i'm guessing the clearance is just getting the ball out of a ruck situation regardless of how it gets out, whether that's the ruckmen hitting it 15 metres clear (is that a hit out and a clearance stat), or a guy dropping it and it rolling off his thigh into the clear... or does a clearance have to be a clean stat out of the contest??

and a 1st possession is, naturally, the first possession after a ruck contest.

obviously a big chunk of the time one disposal will mark both a clearance and a first possession. however, say the ruckmen knocks it 20 metres clear that's the hit out and clearance and the guy who gets onto it and does whatever gets the first possession stat??

Clearance is the FIRST possession after a field umpires ball. It could come 2 seconds after a hitout or even an entire minute if the ball is in dispute. Regardless of what it is or where it goes, it's the first kick or handball. Even if someone gets a free kick straight away after a stoppage, his possession is considered a clearance. A 15m hitout is a hitout and not a clearance. Have never heard of a 1st possession stat but I assume your ignorance towards what is entitled in a clearance lead you to believe there was a difference.

Hope that helps in bold.

 

[The Passenger]

Re: Post your stats questions here

yeah that clearance sounds like what i thought before i read about 1st possession stat on pro-stats.

1st possessoin is possibly the first person to get hands to the ball regardless of whether they dispose of it or not. for instance sam mitchell has 6.8 clearances a match this year but only 4.2 first possessions.

still see hard ball gets and contested possession as one in the same, as obviously they are a lot of the time.

 

[madbomber8]

Re: Post your stats questions here

alright. had a thought this morning.. dunno if its been done before or what..

in regards to footy tipping, wondering what you would get if you did the following from the start.

picked your choice of the two teams in each match based on exactly who was higher on the ladder at that moment. and in the first round, based on the ladder after the last round of the h&a season the year previously.

doesnt matter whose home or away each week, injuries, suspensions, any other factors, just the basic choose whose higher on the ladder.

i know in the early rounds it would be a bit dodgy. but it would be interesting to see how it faired in years previously or how you would be going this year.


let me know if anyone is smart enough or has enough time to work it out!


cheers..

 

[RogersResults]

Re: Post your stats questions here

alright. had a thought this morning.. dunno if its been done before or what..

in regards to footy tipping, wondering what you would get if you did the following from the start.

picked your choice of the two teams in each match based on exactly who was higher on the ladder at that moment. and in the first round, based on the ladder after the last round of the h&a season the year previously.

doesnt matter whose home or away each week, injuries, suspensions, any other factors, just the basic choose whose higher on the ladder.

i know in the early rounds it would be a bit dodgy. but it would be interesting to see how it faired in years previously or how you would be going this year.


let me know if anyone is smart enough or has enough time to work it out!


cheers..

Without including the first round of the season: The higher placed team on the ladder 1897-2011 have won approximately 66% of the matches. But this can vary 5% or more either way in different seasons. Approx 68% in 2000. 58% in 2002. Approx 60% in 2005. Approx 64% in 2010. In 2010 higher placed teams won approx 3% more matches in the 2nd half of the season than in the first half.

The tipsters leading tipping competitions do better than this.
Also the way odds are calculated means that this is also not a way to 'beat the bookies'.

 

[worbod]

Re: Post your stats questions here

This isn't statistical, and maybe it's a generational thing, but can someone explain what "stacks on the mill" means, and how it came to be related to the specific passage of play in footy with which it is associated. I've heard it heaps of times on radio, but have never bothered to understand what it is describing. It sounds as though it's related to players lying in a pack on top of the ball.

 

[madbomber8]

Re: Post your stats questions here

ok. another one for you.. glad i have this site at my disposal. bloody brilliant.

talking odds, gambling, etc.


if i had lets say 5 bucks, on every game this year so far, on the fact that at at least one quarter time break, (quarter, half, three quarter and full time) it is a draw, and it pays $9 every single game... what would be my total cost so far, and what would be my profit/loss?

 

[madbomber8]

Re: Post your stats questions here

This isn't statistical, and maybe it's a generational thing, but can someone explain what "stacks on the mill" means, and how it came to be related to the specific passage of play in footy with which it is associated. I've heard it heaps of times on radio, but have never bothered to understand what it is describing. It sounds as though it's related to players lying in a pack on top of the ball.

well im 20, and all my life since primary school its been reffered to in a situation when multiple players are on the deck, generally with a ball there also, and it used to be called out "stacks on the mill!" or "stacks on john" etc, in which every player within earshot would therefore be encouraged to jump on also and crush and "stack on" the bottom players.

in commentating afl, i have heard it a couple of times when there is a large pack or group of blokes on the deck and the ball isnt moving anywhere quickly.

hope this helps.

 

[The Get Up Kid]

Re: Post your stats questions here

52 games so far so total spend $260. I'll check how many games have had a draw at any quarter. BTW I noticed those odds yesterday on Essendon WC when Essendon should've drawn the game at half time!

 

[madbomber8]

Re: Post your stats questions here

52 games so far so total spend $260. I'll check how many games have had a draw at any quarter. BTW I noticed those odds yesterday on Essendon WC when Essendon should've drawn the game at half time!

lol i was watching pretty closely too, as i had money on it. haha

i use the bet quite often, its one of my favourites as quarter time and half time seem to have a lot of close, if not drawn games.

that, combined with usually good money on the tri bet, (either team by less than roughly 20 points, AND the draw) which pays a couple of bucks.

its keeps me happy, when i struggle to decide which team to pick in the tipping, i chuck that bet on. lol

 

[The Get Up Kid]

Re: Post your stats questions here

lol i was watching pretty closely too, as i had money on it. haha

i use the bet quite often, its one of my favourites as quarter time and half time seem to have a lot of close, if not drawn games.

that, combined with usually good money on the tri bet, (either team by less than roughly 20 points, AND the draw) which pays a couple of bucks.

its keeps me happy, when i struggle to decide which team to pick in the tipping, i chuck that bet on. lol

Haha nice work. I like the exotic bets!

Ok, so for the $260 outlay you'd have $270!

Broken down by:
Ess v Carl (match drawn)
Melb v Syd (match drawn)
St K v Rich (match drawn)
WC v Syd (quarter scores equal)
Freo v WB (quarter scores equal)
Port v Haw (quarter scores equal)

I think that the result is a sign that those $9 odds are b/s. It should be more like 15-1. This year there has been a high number of games that have finished in a draw. I would think though that there would usually be more quarters where the scores are level though so that may even things out. Maybe that shows the widening from top to bottom and introduction of GC.

 

[madbomber8]

Re: Post your stats questions here

Haha nice work. I like the exotic bets!

Ok, so for the $260 outlay you'd have $270!

Broken down by:
Ess v Carl (match drawn)
Melb v Syd (match drawn)
St K v Rich (match drawn)
WC v Syd (quarter scores equal)
Freo v WB (quarter scores equal)
Port v Haw (quarter scores equal)

I think that the result is a sign that those $9 odds are b/s. It should be more like 15-1. This year there has been a high number of games that have finished in a draw. I would think though that there would usually be more quarters where the scores are level though so that may even things out. Maybe that shows the widening from top to bottom and introduction of GC.

haha well its completely the tab's fault for giving me such a wide range of options to bet on every game! haha.

well... i guess i would be up! thats always good... lol. wonder how it will pan out for the rest of the year.

i read somewhere that if you had a dollar on the draw in every grand final in history, you would be up... paying 51 dollars each. haha.

 

[The Get Up Kid]

Re: Post your stats questions here

haha well its completely the tab's fault for giving me such a wide range of options to bet on every game! haha.

well... i guess i would be up! thats always good... lol. wonder how it will pan out for the rest of the year.

i read somewhere that if you had a dollar on the draw in every grand final in history, you would be up... paying 51 dollars each. haha.

If you'd been over 18 (betting age) and still alive for all those Grand Finals, that's got to be some kind of genuis world record haha!

When did legalised betting begin?

We can revisit this post after round 24 and after the Grand Final.

 

[red+black]

Re: Post your stats questions here

St Kilda have had a bad start to the year. Has a team ever had such a start and made the finals? Don't answer that.

What I would like to know is, since the introduction of the Final 8, what is the worst 0-x, 1-x, 2-x ... starts for a side that still made the finals? I just want some parameters around when you can say:
- the worst start to make top 4 is 0-x, 1-x and 2-x
- the worst start to make top 8 is 0-x, 1-x and 2-x
- the worst first half season for a team to make top 8

eg. Geelong were 0-3 in 2004 and made top 4, Hawthorn were 1-6 in 2010 and made top 8.

 

[RogersResults]

Re: Post your stats questions here

St Kilda have had a bad start to the year. Has a team ever had such a start and made the finals? Don't answer that.

What I would like to know is, since the introduction of the Final 8, what is the worst 0-x, 1-x, 2-x ... starts for a side that still made the finals? I just want some parameters around when you can say:
- the worst start to make top 4 is 0-x, 1-x and 2-x
- the worst start to make top 8 is 0-x, 1-x and 2-x
- the worst first half season for a team to make top 8

eg. Geelong were 0-3 in 2004 and made top 4, Hawthorn were 1-6 in 2010 and made top 8.

The worst first half season for a team to make top 8 (W-L)
Brisbane 1995 4-7
WB/Footscray 1995 4-7
Brisbane 1997 4-7
West Coast 2004 4-7

the worst start to make top 8 is 0-3, 1-6 and 2-6
0-3 - Sydney 1999, Adelaide 2001, Geelong 2004, Melbourne 2006, Nth Melbourne 2007
1-6 - Hawthorn 2010
2-6 - Brisbane 1997

the worst start to make top 4 is 0-x, 1-x and 2-x
(I'm not geared up to find that quickly - someone else can take that one)

 

[Ron The Bear]

Re: Post your stats questions here

(I'm not geared up to find that quickly - someone else can take that one)

Since the introduction of the top 8:
0-3: Geelong 2004 (4th), North Melbourne 2007 (4th)
1-4: West Coast 1996 (4th), St.Kilda 1997 (1st), Geelong 2004 (4th)
2-4: West Coast 1996 (4th), St.Kilda 1997 (1st), Adelaide 1997 (4th), Western Bulldogs 1999 (4th), Geelong 2004 (4th), Sydney 2005 (3rd)
3-5: Collingwood 2009 (4th)
4-5: Brisbane 2001 (2nd), St.Kilda 2005 (4th), St.Kilda 2008 (4th), Collingwood 2009 (4th)
5-7: St.Kilda 2008 (4th)
6-7: Geelong 1994 (4th), Melbourne 2000 (3rd), St.Kilda 2005 (4th), Fremantle 2006 (3rd), St.Kilda 2008 (4th)
7-8: Geelong 1994 (4th)
8-8: Geelong 1994 (4th)
9-8: Geelkong 1994 (4th), Melbourne 1998 (4th), Melbourne 2000 (3rd), St.Kilda 2008 (4th)
10-9: St.Kilda 2008 (4th)
11-9: North Melbourne 1994 (3rd), Geelong 1994 (4th), St.Kilda 2008 (4th)
12-9: North Melbourne 1994 (3rd), Geelong 1994 (4th), St.Kilda 2008 (4th)
13-9: North Melbourne 1994 (3rd), Geelong 1994 (4th), Adelaide 1997 (4th), Collingwood 2002 (4th), St.Kilda 2008 (4th)

Since 1925:
0-5: Collingwood 1959 (3rd)
1-5: Collingwood 1959 (3rd), Carlton 1978 (4th), Essendon 1981 (4th)
2-6: Collingwood 1959 (3rd)
3-6: Carlton 1945 (3rd), Collingwood 1959 (3rd), North Melbourne 1975 (3rd)
4-6: Carlton 1945 (3rd), Collingwood 1959 (3rd), Essendon 1959 (4th), North Melbourne 1975 (3rd), Carlton 1978 (4th)
5-7: North Melbourne 1975 (3rd), West Coast 1988 (4th), St.Kilda 2008 (4th)
6-8: West Coast 1988 (4th)
7-8: West Coast 1988 (4th), Geelong 1994 (4th)
8-9: West Coast 1988 (4th)
9-9: West Coast 1988 (4th)
10-9: Richmond 1975 (4th), West Coast 1988 (4th), St.Kilda 2008 (4th)
11-10: Geelong 1976 (4th)
12-10: Geelong 1976 (4th)

 

[Ron The Bear]

Re: Post your stats questions here

Worst starts to reach finals:
0-5: Collingwood 1959 (3rd)
1-8: Fitzroy 1984 (5th)
2-8: Fitzroy 1984 (5th) (Fitzroy were 2-9-1 in the four-team comp of 1916)
3-8: Fitzroy 1984 (5th) (Fitzroy 3-9-1 in 1916)
4-11: Brisbane 1995 (8th)
5-11: Brisbane 1995 (8th)
6-11: Fitzroy 1984 (5th), Brisbane 1995 (8th)
7-12: Brisbane 1995 (8th)
8-12: Brisbane 1995 (8th)
9-12: Brisbane 1995 (8th)
10-12: Brisbane 1995 (8th)

 

[red+black]

Re: Post your stats questions here

Nice work. Thus, given St Kilda's current record, and their draw over the next few weeks, I reckon they're done, they will not make finals.

 

[RogersResults]

Re: Post your stats questions here

Question:
After 4 points what is the lowest score not recorded in VFL/AFL results?

Answer: After Essendon's score of 197 against the Gold Coast in round 6 it is now 202 points.

(Just noticed this today)

 

[RogersResults]

Re: Post your stats questions here

Daniel Menzel has played 9 matches for Geelong.
All have been wins.

Who else's first 9 matches or more have been wins?

 

[*Paul*]

Re: Post your stats questions here

The record is 18, and four other current players also managed it.
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/alltime/misc_players.html#12

 

[RogersResults]

Re: Post your stats questions here

The record is 18, and four other current players also managed it.
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/stats/alltime/misc_players.html#12

Thanks for that. Like many things its knowing where to look!

With Menzel now sharing the career record of 9 matches without loss with Carlton's Eric Cochran, I wonder if he will retire if he gets to 10?

 

[Slattery_20]

Re: Post your stats questions here

Is this the first time two co-winners of a Brownlow have coached against each other?

 

[Ron The Bear]

Re: Post your stats questions here

Is this the first time two co-winners of a Brownlow have coached against each other?

Yes, first co-winners.

Brownlow winners to have coached against each other:

Year Rd Cb Coach                Cb Coach
-------------------------------------------------------
1930  5 Me Warne-Smith, Ivor*   WB Hopkins, Allan*#
1930 12 WB Hopkins, Allan#      Me Warne-Smith, Ivor*
1936  4 WB Coventry senior, Syd Fi Bunton, Haydn*
1936 15 Fi Bunton, Haydn*       WB Coventry senior, Syd
1939  8 Es Reynolds, Dick*^     Sy Matthews, J. Herbie*#
1941 11 WB Ware, Norm*          Es Reynolds, Dick
1942  2 WB Ware, Norm*          Es Reynolds, Dick*
1942 13 Es Reynolds, Dick*      WB Ware, Norm*
1952 10 Fi Ruthven, Allan       Es Reynolds, Dick
1953  1 Es Reynolds, Dick       Fi Ruthven, Allan*
1953 12 Fi Ruthven, Allan*      Es Reynolds, Dick
1954  2 Es Reynolds, Dick       Sy Matthews, J. Herbie#
1954  7 Es Reynolds, Dick       Fi Ruthven, Allan*
1954 10 Fi Ruthven, Allan*      Sy Matthews, J. Herbie#
1954 13 Sy Matthews, J. Herbie# Es Reynolds, Dick
1954 18 Fi Ruthven, Allan*      Es Reynolds, Dick
1955  8 Es Reynolds, Dick       Sy Matthews, J. Herbie#
1956  6 Sy Matthews, J. Herbie# Es Reynolds, Dick
1956 17 Reynolds, Dick          Sy Matthews, J. Herbie#
1957  5 Sy Matthews, J. Herbie# Es Reynolds, Dick
1957 16 Reynolds, Dick          Sy Matthews, J. Herbie#
1958 11 Sy Clegg, Ron*          Es Reynolds, Dick
1959  3 Sy Clegg, Ron*          Es Reynolds, Dick
1959 14 Es Reynolds, Dick       Sy Clegg, Ron*
1976  6 Sy Stewart, Ian         Me Skilton, Bob
1976 17 Me Skilton, Bob         Sy Stewart, Ian
1977  1 Me Skilton, Bob         Sy Stewart, Ian
1977  7 St Smith, Ross G.       Sy Stewart, Ian
1977  9 St Smith, Ross G.       Me Skilton, Bob
1977 12 Sy Stewart, Ian         Me Skilton, Bob
1977 18 Sy Stewart, Ian         St Smith, Ross G.
1977 20 Me Skilton, Bob         St Smith, Ross G.
1981  1 NM Blight, Malcolm*     Sy Stewart, Ian

* playing coach
^ caretaker coach
# Brownlow awarded retrospectively (1989)
NB 1941 R11 Reynolds didn't play; 1952 R10 Ruthven didn't play

 

[red+black]

Re: Post your stats questions here

Is this the first time two co-winners of a Brownlow have coached against each other?

Appears to be the first AFL game that will be coached by two Brownlow medallists.