I don't think many would consider early 3rd round to be a late pick.
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AFLW 2024 - Round 4 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Opinion Stephen Silvagni
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I don't think many would consider early 3rd round to be a late pick.
Don't think it is any secret that we have sucked at picks in the 4th round and beyond into the rookie draft and DFA/SSP selections.
Gibbons has been super impressive the last week or two. Cottrell is showing great signs for a 19 year old rookie. We haven't seen Deluca. Goddard has made great strides.
Looks like our mature age scouting has turned for the better.
Williamson was a great pick. Don't mind the Schumacher and Kerr picks. Nothing wrong with the Garlett pick, just hasn't worked out for him.
Finbar has some transferable skills but he's so damn raw that playing him in the VFL now is hurting that team. BSOS is a competitor, a no-brainer pick but a good one. Even Polson showed signs early but has sadly deteriorated significantly.
Holding onto LeBois this long has been puzzling.
I would have preferred:
- Not taking Finbar in the national draft
- Delisting LeBois last year and looking for another small forward
- Not offering Polson a 2 year deal
Gibbons has been super impressive the last week or two. Cottrell is showing great signs for a 19 year old rookie. We haven't seen Deluca. Goddard has made great strides.
Looks like our mature age scouting has turned for the better.
Williamson was a great pick. Don't mind the Schumacher and Kerr picks. Nothing wrong with the Garlett pick, just hasn't worked out for him.
Finbar has some transferable skills but he's so damn raw that playing him in the VFL now is hurting that team. BSOS is a competitor, a no-brainer pick but a good one. Even Polson showed signs early but has sadly deteriorated significantly.
Holding onto LeBois this long has been puzzling.
I would have preferred:
- Not taking Finbar in the national draft
- Delisting LeBois last year and looking for another small forward
- Not offering Polson a 2 year deal
Wow please go on and tell me how many clubs actually nail the picks after 50 regularly 
Kerr has been good just unlucky with the fwd line we have macreadie wasn't a bad pick either still very far behind from no pre season. Williamson has been so unlucky but has plenty of upside. Polson has one more year to prove himself and before he got injured last year lebois was actually playing ok. Will probably go now though
Kerr has been good just unlucky with the fwd line we have macreadie wasn't a bad pick either still very far behind from no pre season. Williamson has been so unlucky but has plenty of upside. Polson has one more year to prove himself and before he got injured last year lebois was actually playing ok. Will probably go now though
- Jun 4, 2016
- 13,136
- 39,938
- AFL Club
- Carlton
Hindsight recruiting should also include the fact that at the time our kpd was Sam Rowe... Casboult and Jones werent transformed. Passing on Weitering wouldve been bloody ludicrous just on where our kpd stocks were headed at the time. No one saw Jones becoming a good, let alone gun, defender nor Casboult a serviceable one. There are numerous gun mids every draft. How many gun key size defenders?
2013: A. Pearce, barrass, aliir
2014: Moore, lever (not key), D. Howard?, andrews
2015: Weitering and a couple of decent mid sizes in doedee and Burton.
2016: Tom Stewart (mature age)
2017: Naughton, S Taylor (maybe...),
Gun key position sized defenders are simply hard to find in the draft. Weitering isn't questionable, saying we maybe should've grabbed Oliver is saying we should've taken him 1 instead of Jacob. Bonkers.
You can give a pass mark to a lot of the late picks in isolation, many deserve a spot on an AFL list somewhere but that's only half of the story; who else was available and were we ever in a position to have traded up the draft a bit or held on to a few more selections? I tend to think our trading overall has been a bit more expensive than people think. It looks good on paper because the highest picks we have given away seem worth it if we are just looking at it as one pick for one player. However, we have been down-trading picks in those trades also. I think we've missed a few tricks because we've been both a bit hasty and also a bit sloppy.
- Mar 1, 2005
- 7,737
- 15,715
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- carlton
yes that was the Rationale at the time, and I dont disagree. But it has consequences. Namely that we left the midfield for later- time that BB as it turned out, didnt have
Wickzki
Definitely Sam MacLure.
- Oct 1, 2010
- 25,682
- 60,961
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Ophidians Old Boys, Blazers, MCFC
Here's a (not so little) something I've been working on. If there's enough interest, I'll do the four of these.
2015 – THE LIST STEPHEN SILVAGNI INHERITED
2015 Retirements
SOS had no choice on any of these players. Juddy had already retired mid-year and Carrots was clearly at the end. Ellard was a trier who was done as well.
2015 Delisted
Cameron Giles – delisted without playing a game.
Blaine Johnson – delisted after 7 AFL games (5 games in 2014; 2 in 2015).
Fraser Russell – delisted without playing a game
Matthew Watson – delisted after playing 23 AFL games
Tom Fields – delisted after 2 AFL games
Nick Holman – delisted after 9 AFL games
Brad Walsh – delisted after 3 AFL games
Robert Warnock – delisted after 67 AFL games for Carlton (88 total)
Summary:
Nick Holman (Gold Coast, 2018-2019; 33 of a possible 34 games) is the only player of the lot to get a second chance on an AFL list. There are only two ‘big’ names on this list in Watson (pick 18 in 2010) and Robert Warnock. Had the 2010 draft not been compromised because of the addition of the Gold Coast Suns we would have had the ninth selection in the draft. The difference is huge as Dion Prestia (pick 9) and Tom Lynch (pick 11) were two of the first three players we would have had the opportunity to draft.
We can criticize Silvagni for not seeing the talent in Holman that a number of fans did. However, it did take Holman two years back in the SANFL (Central District) for him to get back on the AFL radar.
2015 Free Agency
Outs: No Outs
Delisted Free Agents In
November 9 – Daniel Gorringe (formerly Gold Coast Suns)
November 26 – Matthew Wright (formerly Adelaide Crows)
Summary:
The pick after Dion Prestia and before Tom Lynch back in 2010? Yeah, that was Dan Gorringe. Back in Norwood in the 2010 season Gorringe looked like an absolute star in the making. It did not happen to him. Injuries (ankle, hamstring, Achilles, knee) throughout his first few seasons with the Suns devastated his development but there was always cries that he lacked the right mental aptitude to reach his potential. SOS’s team took a flier on him. We needed his position. He played 4 games for Carlton and again suffered from injuries (hip and Achilles). The low-risk high-reward signing didn’t pay off.
Matthew Wright was the little engine that could for Carlton. Played in 65 of a possible 66 games across three seasons with the club. Many believe that he could have played another season but he elected to retire and take his family back home. He was a success story for the Blues.
2015 Trades
Trade #1: Carlton traded Lachie Henderson to Geelong for 2016 1st round pick (GEE)
It’s rare to see a player quit on a club the way that Henderson did throughout the 2015 season. He had made his decision very early in the piece that he was going to Geelong. Silvagni was in a no-win situation yet was able to get Geelong to deal fairly at the trade table (Geelong have consistently been amicable traders across the league).
Henderson played 41 games in his first two seasons with Geelong (including finals) but injuries and loss of form have seen him play in just 7 games in 2018 and 1 so far this year. It’s quite likely that even at 100% Henderson is no longer in the Cats best 22. Pick 16 was used in another trade (see further along)
Winner: Carlton. Henderson wasn’t the answer to their premiership puzzle (yet!)
Trade #2: Carlton traded Tom Bell and pick #41 to Brisbane for picks #21 and #60
Bell had his career best season in our woeful 2015 campaign and as such was at his sell high price point. He wanted to return home to Queensland to his (IIRC) ill father and we were happy to oblige. Bell played just 21 games across 3 injury prone seasons (just 1 last season) before being delisted. Despite working with Fagan on finding another AFL home he wasn’t deemed good enough to be given that opportunity.
Pick 41 slid out to pick 47 where the Lions picked up Sam Skinner. Skinner has played just the one AFL game (back in 2017), is out of contract this year and with the development of their list is highly unlikely to get a renewed contract.
Carlton traded pick 21 in a subsequent trade (see further) that helped us secure a key part of our long-term spine. Wikipedia doesn’t have a record of what we did with pick 60 but we went into the draft with picks 59 and 60 so I believe we used it to match the bid Essendon placed on Jack Silvagni.
Winner: Carlton. The subsequent trade including pick 21 is one of the best pieces of work that Silvagni has done to date.
Trade #3: Carlton traded Troy Menzel to the Adelaide Crows for Sam Kerridge and pick #28
At the time this was the trade that infuriated a lot of people. For a period Menzel was considered as being the answer to our prayers. People spoke about his potential the way they talk about Cripps output today. However, we mostly understood that it just wasn’t working out for him at Carlton. There was criticism of his work ethic and his maturity. Still, it was a bitter pill to swallow when we traded him for what we deemed unders at the time.
However, Menzel didn’t win over the Crows coaching staff. His effort on the field and on the training track tanked even lower than it had at Carlton. Menzel played just the four games for Adelaide – 0 in his first year – and was delisted at the end of his two-year contract.
Criticize Sam Kerridge all you like, he always put in his maximum effort. Kerridge played 42 games for Carlton from 2016-2018, kicking 12 goals and even getting 2 Brownlow votes in 2016. I feel that he was delisted a year earlier than I would have liked but he wasn’t picked up and its likely his AFL career is over.
We used pick 28 in a subsequent trade (see next trade).
Winner: Carlton, easily. It goes to show that you can have high hopes for players and sometimes it just doesn’t work out. Whether the environment was wrong and they lacked opportunity or whether the player’s off field maturity just wasn’t good enough. Menzel failed on the latter. Kerridge was a valued clubman.
Trade #4: Carlton traded pick #28 (see trade #3), picks 77 and 95, and Geelong’s 2016 1st round pick for pick #8, Lachie Plowman, Jed Lamb, Andrew Phillips and Liam Sumner
Ah, the trade that got it all started with GWS. The famous “GWS 5 Trade” though it was really 4 and a pick.
The outcome of pick 28: In a convoluted trading and bid matching series of trades, GWS traded pick 28 with Treloar to Collingwood for pick 7, 65 and the Pies 2016 1st round pick. Pick 7 was traded to Melbourne with Tomas Bugg for picks 10, 43, 64. It eventually netted them Jacob Hopper. The Pies pick was eventually used in the Cam McCarthy trade the following year and in a second trade in which they gave up picks 2, 31, 51, and 60 for picks 3 and 16 they drafted Tim Taranto. In conclusion, they used more valuable pieces with what we gave up to get Hopper and Taranto (and other bid-matching things). Ultimately, 28 is a small piece here as were 77 and 95.
The outcome of the Geelong pick: The Tim Taranto selection rears its head again. As above, GWS traded the Geelong pick with pick 3 with pick 16 (the Geelong pick) for pick 2 (Taranto), 31, 51, and 60. Again, however, the Geelong pick was a secondary level piece to the main piece in the trade.
For Carlton, pick 8 became pick 10 due to the matching of Callum Mills and Jacob Hopper. We drafted Harry McKay with pick 10.
Plowman, despite constant criticism, is a mainstay in our defensive unit which is pretty solid at times despite the pressure it faces. Andrew Phillips is a decidedly below average ruckman but is decent as list depth in a position where we’ve had serious injury issues with our #1 in Kreuzer.
Sumner played 20 games for Carlton between 2016-2017 before being delisted. He hasn’t been given another opportunity. Jed Lamb played 44 games for Carlton between 2016-2018 before being delisted. Lamb was at times a crowd favourite and the job that he did on James Sicily back in 2017 in our drought breaking victory against Hawthorn a particularly favourite memory.
Winners: Carlton. GWS would not be disappointed with the outcome of the trade because it helped them secure other trades that netted them significant players in their best 22. However, this was a big win for SOS. Of the actual players and specific picks involved in the trade Harry McKay is head and shoulders better than any of them. He has the potential to be a permanent fixture in the All-Australian team in the years ahead. Plowman is an important player on our list despite the criticism.
Trade #5: Carlton trade picks 20, 21 and 2016 4th round pick (Carlton end up with it again in the future from Geelong via Fremantle via Bulldogs) to the Western Bulldogs for pick 11 and 2016 3rd round pick (Macreadie pick?)
Bulldogs draft: Josh Dunkley and Kieran Collins
Carlton draft: Charlie Curnow
Dunkley is a premiership player and has emerged as one of the better young utility players in the game. Collins got delisted and signed with the Northern Blues for 2019.
Curnow has the highest upside of any player in the trade.
Winner: Both teams even with the delisting of Collins. As good as Curnow has been for us, Dunkley has been brilliant for the Dogs. This has been a big win-win trade for both clubs to date. We both got exactly what we needed out of it. A pity that Collins didn’t pan out at the Dogs. However, this trade has the potential to be lop-sided in a few years to our advantage. If Charlie can hit his straps and realize his potential, he’ll be an instrumental player in our next premiership window.
2015 AFL DRAFT
Pick #1: Jacob Weitering
Callum Twomey predicted Jacob. “Weitering is the best player in the draft and will be a deserving No.1 pick. The key defender pieced together an excellent season from start to finish and placed himself at the top of the draft with his imposing play in the backline. Weitering is a brilliant overhead mark and has a long accurate kick. He has carried the tag as the likely No.1 choice without fuss throughout the year and will welcome the big expectations that will be placed on him in the AFL. The Blues can pick him knowing he will be a long-term part of their plans.”
If it wasn’t Jacob Weitering, it would have been Josh Schache. However, there was never any real debate.
Development: Weitering should never have been moved out of the backline. I believe that it stifled his development and it certainly rocked his confidence. He was never the answer to our forward line woes. However, he has found stability in his fourth AFL season and is still tracking ahead of expectations for a young key defender. He has played a vital role in the team this season and is showing signs of realizing his potential perennial All-Australian earmarking.
Verdict: Absolutely the right choice at pick 1.
Pick #10: Harry McKay
Callum Twomey got the top ten right though he thought we’d be the team who bid for Hopper instead of Gold Coast who did two picks earlier. In predicting Harry to us, he wrote: “The tall forward has real potential. He burst on to the scene at the start of the year with a four-goal bag at TAC Cup level and continued to show exciting signs. McKay is agile, versatile and likes to get on the lead and take some marks. He will also be able to pinch-hit in the ruck once he builds up his body, which will make him a difficult match-up. He took on this role at stages throughout Vic Country's championships campaign. The Blues have been linked as admirers for some time, and seem a good fit to bring in his talents in their developing forward line.”
If not him, Twomey claims that we would have considered Wayne Milera, Charlie Curnow (who we drafted). I was always enamored with drafting McKay – who I liked when he was projected in the mid-draft - and then Curnow. The Adelaide Crows were hot for Harry and consequently we drafted him here to ensure we drafted both Curnow and McKay.
Development: The back injury held back McKay’s development in his first season and when he was playing in the VFL he struggled to find form. Most VFL watchers would defend the criticism of the club not selecting him imploring us to be patient. Ultimately, he has proven to be an AFL grade player who didn’t really perform in the VFL. He’s tracking extremely well considering the early setbacks. So much so that I claim that he is ahead of the other KP talent in the draft that were drafted elsewhere (Francis, Weideman) ahead of him.
Verdict: Again, SOS nails this selection. McKay should emerge as an All-Australian caliber key forward as soon as next year.
Pick #12 – Charlie Curnow
Twomey messes up around here (though he gets the players and teams right; Kennedy to GWS; Hipwood to Brisbane; Milera to Adelaide; Charlie Curnow to Carlton).
In predicting Curnow to Carlton, he wrote: “The powerful forward is an interesting prospect due to his capabilities, his positioning and his limited game time across 2015. Curnow started and ended his season playing as a key forward who can take strong marks and hit the scoreboard. In the middle of the year he was about to progress into a midfield role, but he went down with a knee injury and missed the championships. He came back towards the end of the year to show his grunt, and he tested well at the combine with his endurance. Curnow's police incident days before the draft – where he was arrested for allegedly refusing a preliminary breath test – might see him tumble down the order a few spots but he could join brother Ed at the Blues.”
If not Charlie, Twomey had us looking at Milera and Ryan Burton.
Development: Charlie has had the cleanest development of the three talls that we drafted at the top end of the 2015 AFL Draft. However, he hasn’t been without his own injury setbacks. We’ve become accustomed to his brilliance and have probably been guilty of asking for more than a 22-year-old young KP should be contributing to a team. Has been given steady development in the forward line when he can easily play some midfield minutes. Then again, that’d be asking even more of him than we already do.
Verdict: Silvagni goes 3-for-3. He’s nailed the top end of the 2015 draft like few other list managers before him. Three KPP’s all of whom have superstar potential and all of whom are tracking ahead of schedule.
Pick #23 – David Cuningham
Twomey had Cunners going at pick 27 to West Coast. In this prediction he raves about his speed and his combine testing. He noted that his kick wasn’t brilliant but that he had enough to work with. Twomey had Carlton selecting Darcy Tucker (pick 27 to Fremantle) but thought we were also a chance for Jade Gresham (pick 18 to St. Kilda), Ryan Clarke (31 to North) and Riley Bonner (37 to Port Adelaide).
I was not a fan of this selection at all on draft night. It was the one selection SOS made on draft night that was questionable in my eyes. Everything that I had read and seen of him screamed out that he was more of an athlete than a footballer. However, admittedly, he had his fair share of fans. Without hindsight getting in the way I was a much bigger fan of us selecting Josh Dunkley or Riley Bonner. I also got caught up in the hype of Harley Balic and Rhys Mathieson.
Sad to see Balic not have the right attributes to succeed at AFL level and Mathieson’s demeanour and attitude on the field turns me off despite the fact that he’s probably earned his draft spot.
Development: Cunners development has been slower than I would have liked. He has managed 23 games so far including 7 games. Has shown spits and spurts of being a serious AFL player but at this stage appears to be much more of a cream player than a key part of the nucleus. His speed is breathtaking at times and he has shown a keen eye for goal.
Verdict: The jury is still out on Cunners. He has his moments. Dunkley is the pick of the bunch that I liked by some margin. However, as much as I still really like Bonner and think he’s a fabulous player an argument can be made both ways. Aside from Dunkley – and it was never a sure thing - there’s no glaring miscues in players who really became stars that were obvious in the end.
Pick #53 – Jack Silvagni (bid from Essendon matched)
The strike rate of getting a player from the fourth round on who becomes a mainstay in an AFL team is about 1 in 4 or 5. No, I haven’t done the research but go down the list in even the strongest of drafts and it’s hit and miss. When Essendon put in the bid for JSOS we were never going to pass it up. They did it as a shit stir knowing we’d match and it elicited the right response. Arguably the best part of our rivalry as a club aside from wins in a long time.
Jack’s a workhorse. He has done everything asked of him on and off the field. I honestly don’t know if he’s of long-term best 22 AFL quality. I have this feeling of dread in the back of my mind that when (if) Ben develops and it coincides with a Carlton grand final that there would be room for one Silvagni but not both with the brothers knowing it. If Jack was a better player, he’d be a genuine chance of captaining the club such is the way that he bleeds blue harder than almost every other player on the list.
When multiple journalists suggested that he should seek opportunity elsewhere because of the burden that he carries at Carlton it genuinely made me smile. That journalists deem him a high enough quality player to be able to play elsewhere is a huge compliment. Until recently he was copping “Well, if his Dad wasn’t SOS… Would he get a game even at Carlton?”
Love Jack’s attitude and determination. It rubs off on his teammates. I’m hoping that he makes it long-term as he desperately wants it.
Verdict: For a pick 53 he’s been a success.
2016 AFL Rookie Draft
PICK #1: Jesse Glass-McCassker
When we passed at the end of the national draft, I was crying that we didn’t draft Jesse. I know a few of the other Carlton fans that I was talking to at the time had a similar response as I did. As you can imagine, we were beyond ecstatic that he got to us through the rookie draft. Alas, it wasn’t to be. He didn’t play an AFL game and didn’t develop the way we hoped he would.
PICK #19: Andrew Gallucci
Did not play a game for Carlton. It was often joked that we drafted him in order to get Jordan. A second ultimately wasted rookie draft pick.
PICK #37: Matthew Korcheck (Cat-B; Basketballer; USA)
Our third strike in the 2015 AFL Rookie Draft. Did not play a game in the senior team.
Captain Hindsight: Who We Could Have Drafted
Captain Hindsight: Free Agency
SUMMARY
Out: Judd, Carrazzo, Ellard, Henderson, Bell, Menzel, Giles, Johnson, Russell, Watson, Fields, Holman, Walsh, Warnock (706 games for Carlton)
In: Gorringe, Wright, Kerridge, Plowman, Phillips, Lamb, Sumner, Weitering, McKay, Curnow, Cuningham, Silvagni, Glass-McCasker*, Gallucci*, Korcheck*
We lost two key cogs to a deep finals team to retirement (Judd, Carrazzo), a lot of players who failed to live up to their potential (Henderson, Menzel, Warnock, Watson), two depth players (Ellard and Bell) and a player who may not have developed to the point he did to earn his second opportunity (Holman). We let go 5 players that didn’t amount to anything.
In their place, we drafted in three potential annual All-Australian key position players (Weitering, McKay, Curnow), handy depth pieces for the short-term (Lamb, Wright, Kerridge, Phillips) and long-term (Silvagni, Cuningham, Plowman) and four players who didn’t really amount to anything (Sumner, Glass-McCasker, Gallucci, Korcheck).
You can’t do anything about the retirements but we come out ahead even when you include them. This was a highly successful, future premiership window building, trading and free agency period.
2015 – THE LIST STEPHEN SILVAGNI INHERITED
- Andrew Walker
- Menzel, Troy
- Murphy, Marc
- Gibbs, Bryce
Judd, Chris(retired)- Simpson, Kade
- Buckley, Dylan
- Kreuzer, Matthew
- Cripps, Patrick
- Watson, Matthew
- Warnock, Robert
- Boekhorst, Blaine
- Jones, Liam
- Docherty, Sam
- Viojo-Rainbow, Dillon
- Rowe, Sam
- Jaksch, Kristian
- Giles, Cameron
- Holman, Nick
- Tutt, Jason
- Henderson, Lachlan
- Whiley, Mark
- Smith, Clem
- Foster, Jayden
- Armfield, Dennis
- Bell, Tom
- Graham, Nick
- Everitt, Andrejs
- Dick, Matthew
- Thomas, Dale
- Jamison, Michael
- Casboult, Levi
- Tuohy, Zac
Carrazzo, Andrew(retired)Ellard, David(retired)
2015 Retirements
- Chris Judd – retired on June 9, 2015 – mid-season due to career ending knee injury.
- Andrew Carrazzo – retired end of season
- David Ellard – retired end of season
SOS had no choice on any of these players. Juddy had already retired mid-year and Carrots was clearly at the end. Ellard was a trier who was done as well.
2015 Delisted
Cameron Giles – delisted without playing a game.
Blaine Johnson – delisted after 7 AFL games (5 games in 2014; 2 in 2015).
Fraser Russell – delisted without playing a game
Matthew Watson – delisted after playing 23 AFL games
Tom Fields – delisted after 2 AFL games
Nick Holman – delisted after 9 AFL games
Brad Walsh – delisted after 3 AFL games
Robert Warnock – delisted after 67 AFL games for Carlton (88 total)
Summary:
Nick Holman (Gold Coast, 2018-2019; 33 of a possible 34 games) is the only player of the lot to get a second chance on an AFL list. There are only two ‘big’ names on this list in Watson (pick 18 in 2010) and Robert Warnock. Had the 2010 draft not been compromised because of the addition of the Gold Coast Suns we would have had the ninth selection in the draft. The difference is huge as Dion Prestia (pick 9) and Tom Lynch (pick 11) were two of the first three players we would have had the opportunity to draft.
We can criticize Silvagni for not seeing the talent in Holman that a number of fans did. However, it did take Holman two years back in the SANFL (Central District) for him to get back on the AFL radar.
2015 Free Agency
Outs: No Outs
Delisted Free Agents In
November 9 – Daniel Gorringe (formerly Gold Coast Suns)
November 26 – Matthew Wright (formerly Adelaide Crows)
Summary:
The pick after Dion Prestia and before Tom Lynch back in 2010? Yeah, that was Dan Gorringe. Back in Norwood in the 2010 season Gorringe looked like an absolute star in the making. It did not happen to him. Injuries (ankle, hamstring, Achilles, knee) throughout his first few seasons with the Suns devastated his development but there was always cries that he lacked the right mental aptitude to reach his potential. SOS’s team took a flier on him. We needed his position. He played 4 games for Carlton and again suffered from injuries (hip and Achilles). The low-risk high-reward signing didn’t pay off.
Matthew Wright was the little engine that could for Carlton. Played in 65 of a possible 66 games across three seasons with the club. Many believe that he could have played another season but he elected to retire and take his family back home. He was a success story for the Blues.
2015 Trades
Trade #1: Carlton traded Lachie Henderson to Geelong for 2016 1st round pick (GEE)
It’s rare to see a player quit on a club the way that Henderson did throughout the 2015 season. He had made his decision very early in the piece that he was going to Geelong. Silvagni was in a no-win situation yet was able to get Geelong to deal fairly at the trade table (Geelong have consistently been amicable traders across the league).
Henderson played 41 games in his first two seasons with Geelong (including finals) but injuries and loss of form have seen him play in just 7 games in 2018 and 1 so far this year. It’s quite likely that even at 100% Henderson is no longer in the Cats best 22. Pick 16 was used in another trade (see further along)
Winner: Carlton. Henderson wasn’t the answer to their premiership puzzle (yet!)
Trade #2: Carlton traded Tom Bell and pick #41 to Brisbane for picks #21 and #60
Bell had his career best season in our woeful 2015 campaign and as such was at his sell high price point. He wanted to return home to Queensland to his (IIRC) ill father and we were happy to oblige. Bell played just 21 games across 3 injury prone seasons (just 1 last season) before being delisted. Despite working with Fagan on finding another AFL home he wasn’t deemed good enough to be given that opportunity.
Pick 41 slid out to pick 47 where the Lions picked up Sam Skinner. Skinner has played just the one AFL game (back in 2017), is out of contract this year and with the development of their list is highly unlikely to get a renewed contract.
Carlton traded pick 21 in a subsequent trade (see further) that helped us secure a key part of our long-term spine. Wikipedia doesn’t have a record of what we did with pick 60 but we went into the draft with picks 59 and 60 so I believe we used it to match the bid Essendon placed on Jack Silvagni.
Winner: Carlton. The subsequent trade including pick 21 is one of the best pieces of work that Silvagni has done to date.
Trade #3: Carlton traded Troy Menzel to the Adelaide Crows for Sam Kerridge and pick #28
At the time this was the trade that infuriated a lot of people. For a period Menzel was considered as being the answer to our prayers. People spoke about his potential the way they talk about Cripps output today. However, we mostly understood that it just wasn’t working out for him at Carlton. There was criticism of his work ethic and his maturity. Still, it was a bitter pill to swallow when we traded him for what we deemed unders at the time.
However, Menzel didn’t win over the Crows coaching staff. His effort on the field and on the training track tanked even lower than it had at Carlton. Menzel played just the four games for Adelaide – 0 in his first year – and was delisted at the end of his two-year contract.
Criticize Sam Kerridge all you like, he always put in his maximum effort. Kerridge played 42 games for Carlton from 2016-2018, kicking 12 goals and even getting 2 Brownlow votes in 2016. I feel that he was delisted a year earlier than I would have liked but he wasn’t picked up and its likely his AFL career is over.
We used pick 28 in a subsequent trade (see next trade).
Winner: Carlton, easily. It goes to show that you can have high hopes for players and sometimes it just doesn’t work out. Whether the environment was wrong and they lacked opportunity or whether the player’s off field maturity just wasn’t good enough. Menzel failed on the latter. Kerridge was a valued clubman.
Trade #4: Carlton traded pick #28 (see trade #3), picks 77 and 95, and Geelong’s 2016 1st round pick for pick #8, Lachie Plowman, Jed Lamb, Andrew Phillips and Liam Sumner
Ah, the trade that got it all started with GWS. The famous “GWS 5 Trade” though it was really 4 and a pick.
The outcome of pick 28: In a convoluted trading and bid matching series of trades, GWS traded pick 28 with Treloar to Collingwood for pick 7, 65 and the Pies 2016 1st round pick. Pick 7 was traded to Melbourne with Tomas Bugg for picks 10, 43, 64. It eventually netted them Jacob Hopper. The Pies pick was eventually used in the Cam McCarthy trade the following year and in a second trade in which they gave up picks 2, 31, 51, and 60 for picks 3 and 16 they drafted Tim Taranto. In conclusion, they used more valuable pieces with what we gave up to get Hopper and Taranto (and other bid-matching things). Ultimately, 28 is a small piece here as were 77 and 95.
The outcome of the Geelong pick: The Tim Taranto selection rears its head again. As above, GWS traded the Geelong pick with pick 3 with pick 16 (the Geelong pick) for pick 2 (Taranto), 31, 51, and 60. Again, however, the Geelong pick was a secondary level piece to the main piece in the trade.
For Carlton, pick 8 became pick 10 due to the matching of Callum Mills and Jacob Hopper. We drafted Harry McKay with pick 10.
Plowman, despite constant criticism, is a mainstay in our defensive unit which is pretty solid at times despite the pressure it faces. Andrew Phillips is a decidedly below average ruckman but is decent as list depth in a position where we’ve had serious injury issues with our #1 in Kreuzer.
Sumner played 20 games for Carlton between 2016-2017 before being delisted. He hasn’t been given another opportunity. Jed Lamb played 44 games for Carlton between 2016-2018 before being delisted. Lamb was at times a crowd favourite and the job that he did on James Sicily back in 2017 in our drought breaking victory against Hawthorn a particularly favourite memory.
Winners: Carlton. GWS would not be disappointed with the outcome of the trade because it helped them secure other trades that netted them significant players in their best 22. However, this was a big win for SOS. Of the actual players and specific picks involved in the trade Harry McKay is head and shoulders better than any of them. He has the potential to be a permanent fixture in the All-Australian team in the years ahead. Plowman is an important player on our list despite the criticism.
Trade #5: Carlton trade picks 20, 21 and 2016 4th round pick (Carlton end up with it again in the future from Geelong via Fremantle via Bulldogs) to the Western Bulldogs for pick 11 and 2016 3rd round pick (Macreadie pick?)
Bulldogs draft: Josh Dunkley and Kieran Collins
Carlton draft: Charlie Curnow
Dunkley is a premiership player and has emerged as one of the better young utility players in the game. Collins got delisted and signed with the Northern Blues for 2019.
Curnow has the highest upside of any player in the trade.
Winner: Both teams even with the delisting of Collins. As good as Curnow has been for us, Dunkley has been brilliant for the Dogs. This has been a big win-win trade for both clubs to date. We both got exactly what we needed out of it. A pity that Collins didn’t pan out at the Dogs. However, this trade has the potential to be lop-sided in a few years to our advantage. If Charlie can hit his straps and realize his potential, he’ll be an instrumental player in our next premiership window.
2015 AFL DRAFT
Pick #1: Jacob Weitering
Callum Twomey predicted Jacob. “Weitering is the best player in the draft and will be a deserving No.1 pick. The key defender pieced together an excellent season from start to finish and placed himself at the top of the draft with his imposing play in the backline. Weitering is a brilliant overhead mark and has a long accurate kick. He has carried the tag as the likely No.1 choice without fuss throughout the year and will welcome the big expectations that will be placed on him in the AFL. The Blues can pick him knowing he will be a long-term part of their plans.”
If it wasn’t Jacob Weitering, it would have been Josh Schache. However, there was never any real debate.
Development: Weitering should never have been moved out of the backline. I believe that it stifled his development and it certainly rocked his confidence. He was never the answer to our forward line woes. However, he has found stability in his fourth AFL season and is still tracking ahead of expectations for a young key defender. He has played a vital role in the team this season and is showing signs of realizing his potential perennial All-Australian earmarking.
Verdict: Absolutely the right choice at pick 1.
Pick #10: Harry McKay
Callum Twomey got the top ten right though he thought we’d be the team who bid for Hopper instead of Gold Coast who did two picks earlier. In predicting Harry to us, he wrote: “The tall forward has real potential. He burst on to the scene at the start of the year with a four-goal bag at TAC Cup level and continued to show exciting signs. McKay is agile, versatile and likes to get on the lead and take some marks. He will also be able to pinch-hit in the ruck once he builds up his body, which will make him a difficult match-up. He took on this role at stages throughout Vic Country's championships campaign. The Blues have been linked as admirers for some time, and seem a good fit to bring in his talents in their developing forward line.”
If not him, Twomey claims that we would have considered Wayne Milera, Charlie Curnow (who we drafted). I was always enamored with drafting McKay – who I liked when he was projected in the mid-draft - and then Curnow. The Adelaide Crows were hot for Harry and consequently we drafted him here to ensure we drafted both Curnow and McKay.
Development: The back injury held back McKay’s development in his first season and when he was playing in the VFL he struggled to find form. Most VFL watchers would defend the criticism of the club not selecting him imploring us to be patient. Ultimately, he has proven to be an AFL grade player who didn’t really perform in the VFL. He’s tracking extremely well considering the early setbacks. So much so that I claim that he is ahead of the other KP talent in the draft that were drafted elsewhere (Francis, Weideman) ahead of him.
Verdict: Again, SOS nails this selection. McKay should emerge as an All-Australian caliber key forward as soon as next year.
Pick #12 – Charlie Curnow
Twomey messes up around here (though he gets the players and teams right; Kennedy to GWS; Hipwood to Brisbane; Milera to Adelaide; Charlie Curnow to Carlton).
In predicting Curnow to Carlton, he wrote: “The powerful forward is an interesting prospect due to his capabilities, his positioning and his limited game time across 2015. Curnow started and ended his season playing as a key forward who can take strong marks and hit the scoreboard. In the middle of the year he was about to progress into a midfield role, but he went down with a knee injury and missed the championships. He came back towards the end of the year to show his grunt, and he tested well at the combine with his endurance. Curnow's police incident days before the draft – where he was arrested for allegedly refusing a preliminary breath test – might see him tumble down the order a few spots but he could join brother Ed at the Blues.”
If not Charlie, Twomey had us looking at Milera and Ryan Burton.
Development: Charlie has had the cleanest development of the three talls that we drafted at the top end of the 2015 AFL Draft. However, he hasn’t been without his own injury setbacks. We’ve become accustomed to his brilliance and have probably been guilty of asking for more than a 22-year-old young KP should be contributing to a team. Has been given steady development in the forward line when he can easily play some midfield minutes. Then again, that’d be asking even more of him than we already do.
Verdict: Silvagni goes 3-for-3. He’s nailed the top end of the 2015 draft like few other list managers before him. Three KPP’s all of whom have superstar potential and all of whom are tracking ahead of schedule.
Pick #23 – David Cuningham
Twomey had Cunners going at pick 27 to West Coast. In this prediction he raves about his speed and his combine testing. He noted that his kick wasn’t brilliant but that he had enough to work with. Twomey had Carlton selecting Darcy Tucker (pick 27 to Fremantle) but thought we were also a chance for Jade Gresham (pick 18 to St. Kilda), Ryan Clarke (31 to North) and Riley Bonner (37 to Port Adelaide).
I was not a fan of this selection at all on draft night. It was the one selection SOS made on draft night that was questionable in my eyes. Everything that I had read and seen of him screamed out that he was more of an athlete than a footballer. However, admittedly, he had his fair share of fans. Without hindsight getting in the way I was a much bigger fan of us selecting Josh Dunkley or Riley Bonner. I also got caught up in the hype of Harley Balic and Rhys Mathieson.
Sad to see Balic not have the right attributes to succeed at AFL level and Mathieson’s demeanour and attitude on the field turns me off despite the fact that he’s probably earned his draft spot.
Development: Cunners development has been slower than I would have liked. He has managed 23 games so far including 7 games. Has shown spits and spurts of being a serious AFL player but at this stage appears to be much more of a cream player than a key part of the nucleus. His speed is breathtaking at times and he has shown a keen eye for goal.
Verdict: The jury is still out on Cunners. He has his moments. Dunkley is the pick of the bunch that I liked by some margin. However, as much as I still really like Bonner and think he’s a fabulous player an argument can be made both ways. Aside from Dunkley – and it was never a sure thing - there’s no glaring miscues in players who really became stars that were obvious in the end.
Pick #53 – Jack Silvagni (bid from Essendon matched)
The strike rate of getting a player from the fourth round on who becomes a mainstay in an AFL team is about 1 in 4 or 5. No, I haven’t done the research but go down the list in even the strongest of drafts and it’s hit and miss. When Essendon put in the bid for JSOS we were never going to pass it up. They did it as a shit stir knowing we’d match and it elicited the right response. Arguably the best part of our rivalry as a club aside from wins in a long time.
Jack’s a workhorse. He has done everything asked of him on and off the field. I honestly don’t know if he’s of long-term best 22 AFL quality. I have this feeling of dread in the back of my mind that when (if) Ben develops and it coincides with a Carlton grand final that there would be room for one Silvagni but not both with the brothers knowing it. If Jack was a better player, he’d be a genuine chance of captaining the club such is the way that he bleeds blue harder than almost every other player on the list.
When multiple journalists suggested that he should seek opportunity elsewhere because of the burden that he carries at Carlton it genuinely made me smile. That journalists deem him a high enough quality player to be able to play elsewhere is a huge compliment. Until recently he was copping “Well, if his Dad wasn’t SOS… Would he get a game even at Carlton?”
Love Jack’s attitude and determination. It rubs off on his teammates. I’m hoping that he makes it long-term as he desperately wants it.
Verdict: For a pick 53 he’s been a success.
2016 AFL Rookie Draft
PICK #1: Jesse Glass-McCassker
When we passed at the end of the national draft, I was crying that we didn’t draft Jesse. I know a few of the other Carlton fans that I was talking to at the time had a similar response as I did. As you can imagine, we were beyond ecstatic that he got to us through the rookie draft. Alas, it wasn’t to be. He didn’t play an AFL game and didn’t develop the way we hoped he would.
PICK #19: Andrew Gallucci
Did not play a game for Carlton. It was often joked that we drafted him in order to get Jordan. A second ultimately wasted rookie draft pick.
PICK #37: Matthew Korcheck (Cat-B; Basketballer; USA)
Our third strike in the 2015 AFL Rookie Draft. Did not play a game in the senior team.
Captain Hindsight: Who We Could Have Drafted
- Tom Papley (pick 14 – Sydney)
- James Parsons (Pick 27 – Geelong)
- Dan Houston (pick 45 – Port Adelaide)
Captain Hindsight: Free Agency
- Nobody. There were no free agents who went cheaply who did anything of particular note.
- Richmond traded pick 70 to GWS for Jacob Townsend and pick 120 -- could we have added something minor and gotten Townsend in as well?
SUMMARY
Out: Judd, Carrazzo, Ellard, Henderson, Bell, Menzel, Giles, Johnson, Russell, Watson, Fields, Holman, Walsh, Warnock (706 games for Carlton)
In: Gorringe, Wright, Kerridge, Plowman, Phillips, Lamb, Sumner, Weitering, McKay, Curnow, Cuningham, Silvagni, Glass-McCasker*, Gallucci*, Korcheck*
We lost two key cogs to a deep finals team to retirement (Judd, Carrazzo), a lot of players who failed to live up to their potential (Henderson, Menzel, Warnock, Watson), two depth players (Ellard and Bell) and a player who may not have developed to the point he did to earn his second opportunity (Holman). We let go 5 players that didn’t amount to anything.
In their place, we drafted in three potential annual All-Australian key position players (Weitering, McKay, Curnow), handy depth pieces for the short-term (Lamb, Wright, Kerridge, Phillips) and long-term (Silvagni, Cuningham, Plowman) and four players who didn’t really amount to anything (Sumner, Glass-McCasker, Gallucci, Korcheck).
You can’t do anything about the retirements but we come out ahead even when you include them. This was a highly successful, future premiership window building, trading and free agency period.
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Awesome effort! Love it.
Yes we stuffed our rookie picks but there was good logic for having a craic at those 3. Had they worked out we would have had our small forward (Galluci) ruck depth (Korcheck) and a KPD who could run (before we converted Jones and Casboult, got Marchbank, etc.)
Interesting that SOS is being accused of ignoring small forwards but drafted Cuningham, Gallucci, Sumner, Wright, Kerridge (who can forget his 6 goal Cameo against Norfs for Adelaide) and Lamb in 2015.
What a great trade year by SOS. (although I hate losing Judd).
The Dominator7
Unleash Finbar's Fury
- Sep 22, 2016
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Really nice stuff Wickzki - thanks for the effort you've put into this and I hope it generates some good discussion. Some comments from me:
- FYI Taranto was the next draft, so I sorta got lost on whether it was a future pick or you just got the trade year mixed up.
- Some basic data to support your comments on strike rates with the JSOS pick (draft range 51-70)
- Average games played 38 (across career, not 1 club)
- 26.3% don't play a game
- 50% don't play more than 10 games
- For those that do get to 50 games, it takes an average of 9.8 years to get there.
- Shows just how bad our list was and how little we had to work with. I had no problem with the original GWS clump + Gorringe, as apart from Plowman they were all throws at the stumps and churned over quickly.
cfc4life
Cancelled
- Sep 16, 2007
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Excellent stuff. Looking forward the future ones if possible.
Well that may seem interesting at a glance.
But really what a reach for a story.
Presidents can be sacked by CEO's, theres a first............
But really what a reach for a story.
Presidents can be sacked by CEO's, theres a first............
The Dominator7
Unleash Finbar's Fury
- Sep 22, 2016
- 430
- 2,197
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Dallas Cowboys, Cubs, FC Brugge
Oh please, can someone who twits please ask him how the CEO has the power to sack the pres....what piffle!!
JustaBattler
Everyone Looks Better In Blue
- May 31, 2012
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Wonder where these leaks/rumours emanate from before they enter twitter sphere? Caro is still recovering from losing Trigg as her inside gossip source.
I suspect Mr 60K memberships is going to get his arse handed to him - if there is any truth to such internal conversations being leaked - stick to sales son - and drinking battery acid to wash down the razor blades you eat for breakfast...
- Nov 14, 2012
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Don’t believe a word of it
Need to call him out.
JustaBattler
Everyone Looks Better In Blue
- May 31, 2012
- 28,212
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- AFL Club
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Absolutely - and the bloke to do it - is the CEO himself - in a big way.
Wickzki
Definitely Sam MacLure.
- Oct 1, 2010
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Re: Taranto -- no, there were so many future picks involved that it's kinda hard to analyse without looking at the whole picture (e.g. what happened with those future picks, what did the opposition receive in return, etc.). I'm sorry if I presented the information in a confusing manner.
Re: JSOS pick -- thanks for putting in the research on that. I thought Jack was a win at that selection but didn't have any idea how staggering those numbers were.
Re: List -- Yep. We had an horrific list. I'd argue we were in as bad a position as what the Fitzroy teams of the early 90's were in. We certainly didn't have the young guns (aside from Doc and Cripps) that the merged Lions eventually had from Fitzroy. That's all come with SOS.
