Sydney's record in grand finals needs scrutinising

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Today reminded me of 2017 Richmond vs. Adelaide - although today's game was much higher standard - in the way that after a close start the Lions seemed to get into the Swans heads and not only out-played them physically but mentally too, taking the initiative in the second term and never allowing Sydney back into the game, the Swans imploding under the pressure as their confidence was destroyed.

Of Sydney's other defeats post 2012, the 2016 GF against the Bulldogs was an absolute thriller and the Swans would have lost no friends with a gallant runner-up performance in which the game was up for grabs until time on in the last quarter was approaching. The 2016 season was unusual in that all of the top 7 teams were legitimate flag contenders, and I think it was the Dogs thinking about how long ago 1954 and 1961 were, and of lost preliminary and other finals in the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s and earlier in the 2010s and this made them want it more.

The terrible performance of Sydney against Hawthorn in the 2014 GF can be more easily explained by the strange lead-in. They were such ridiculously short-priced favorites against the Hawks despite the evenness of the teams that season in 1st and 2nd, and in the media it seemed as though it wasn't a matter of whether Sydney would win but by how much. I think that pre-game a lot of Swans players believed their own publicity and when ambushed by the Hawks on GF Day had no answers.

Most inexplicable though was the 2022 Grand Final against Geelong, where the Cats blew the Swans away from the opening bounce from the final siren with no resistance from Sydney. Sure Geelong were 1st and hadn't been beaten since May, but the Swans of 2022 in 3rd were a tough and very good team and a legitimate flag contender. Plus Geelong were aging and definitely beatable, so just how things went wrong so badly and so quickly is very hard to explain.
 
Most inexplicable though was the 2022 Grand Final against Geelong, where the Cats blew the Swans away from the opening bounce from the final siren with no resistance from Sydney. Sure Geelong were 1st and hadn't been beaten since May, but the Swans of 2022 in 3rd were a tough and very good team and a legitimate flag contender. Plus Geelong were aging and definitely beatable, so just how things went wrong so badly and so quickly is very hard to explain.

I think it was totally explainable in 2022. The trend for most Grand Finals is that the team in better form in the two-months prior to the Grand Final tends to win. In 2024 Sydney had only won 6 of their last 11 games entering the Grand Final. Brisbane was 15-3-1 in their previous 19 games entering the Grand Final after a slow start. Brisbane were the team in better form. Yes, it's true, that over the entire season Sydney were probably the best team, but it's not necessarily the best team who wins the Grand Final - it's the team who is playing better in the two-month lead up to the Grand Final. Sydney really didn't tick any of those boxes. In fact, after starting the season 13-1, they never really recaptured that early season form at all. And if they hadn't recaptured that form in 3 months why would they suddenly find it on Grand Final day?

Going back to 2022, Geelong entered the Grand Final having won 15 straight games. I remember Daniel Hoyne from champion date saying that Geelong's "profile" in 2022 was so unbelievably good, that they would have to fall over not to win the premiership. Forget the fact that they were old - it's their profile and form that counts and the previous teams with 15-game winning streaks entering the Grand Final (Carlton in 1995 and Brisbane in 2001) won the Grand Final match easily. Maybe an 80-point thumping was a bit much, but a 10-goal win for the Cats should not have been entirely unexpected given they beat Brisbane by about 80 points the week before and hadn't lost for 4 months.
 

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Just 45 tackles today. Didn't turn up at all.

Wilted under the pressure.

Lions brought the heat early in the game as did the Hawks in 2014. Similar blowout.

Thought the same thing watching the game. Lions brought a lot of physicality, much like Hawthorn at the start of the 2014 GF, and it seemed to drive Sydney into their shell just as it did in 2014. Can't really explain it, as I in general I don't see Sydney players as a soft group, but for some reason they are as soft as butter in GFs. The type of recent history they have now is hard to break free from too. Despite the wilting under physical pressure, they still looked competitive until Lions got a mini-break on them, and you could almost see the Sydney players starting to think "oh no, not again", and it all unravelled from there.
 

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Sydney's record in grand finals needs scrutinising

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