Sydney's record in grand finals needs scrutinising

[Punt Road Feral]

I thought at worst the Swans would lose by less than 5 goals today.

Have been the best and consistent team across the course of the season and they serve that up today.

Rightfully there’s been some fair stats put up in this thread and they deserve some added scrutiny now.

 

[DrEvil_]

What is it with Collingwood fans being dicks today? Had around 3 or 4 Collingwood fans who were trolling on the Swans board during the game.

Today?

 

[RUNVS]

Today?

I rate people who troll on other boards during a painful loss as similar to people who kick kittens or push into the front of a long traffic queue on the motorway.

 

[Gavin Excell]

I rate people who troll on other boards during a painful loss as similar to people who kick kittens or push into the front of a long traffic queue on the motorway.

Credit to you Runvs manning up in what must be a dreadfully difficult time

My genuine commiserations

 

[DrEvil_]

I wrote them off after the 112 point capitulation to Port. Today just confirmed why.

Wrote them off after Richmond

 

[emuboy]

Today reminded me of 2017 Richmond vs. Adelaide - although today's game was much higher standard - in the way that after a close start the Lions seemed to get into the Swans heads and not only out-played them physically but mentally too, taking the initiative in the second term and never allowing Sydney back into the game, the Swans imploding under the pressure as their confidence was destroyed.

Of Sydney's other defeats post 2012, the 2016 GF against the Bulldogs was an absolute thriller and the Swans would have lost no friends with a gallant runner-up performance in which the game was up for grabs until time on in the last quarter was approaching. The 2016 season was unusual in that all of the top 7 teams were legitimate flag contenders, and I think it was the Dogs thinking about how long ago 1954 and 1961 were, and of lost preliminary and other finals in the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s and earlier in the 2010s and this made them want it more.

The terrible performance of Sydney against Hawthorn in the 2014 GF can be more easily explained by the strange lead-in. They were such ridiculously short-priced favorites against the Hawks despite the evenness of the teams that season in 1st and 2nd, and in the media it seemed as though it wasn't a matter of whether Sydney would win but by how much. I think that pre-game a lot of Swans players believed their own publicity and when ambushed by the Hawks on GF Day had no answers.

Most inexplicable though was the 2022 Grand Final against Geelong, where the Cats blew the Swans away from the opening bounce from the final siren with no resistance from Sydney. Sure Geelong were 1st and hadn't been beaten since May, but the Swans of 2022 in 3rd were a tough and very good team and a legitimate flag contender. Plus Geelong were aging and definitely beatable, so just how things went wrong so badly and so quickly is very hard to explain.

 

[Dan26]

Most inexplicable though was the 2022 Grand Final against Geelong, where the Cats blew the Swans away from the opening bounce from the final siren with no resistance from Sydney. Sure Geelong were 1st and hadn't been beaten since May, but the Swans of 2022 in 3rd were a tough and very good team and a legitimate flag contender. Plus Geelong were aging and definitely beatable, so just how things went wrong so badly and so quickly is very hard to explain.

I think it was totally explainable in 2022. The trend for most Grand Finals is that the team in better form in the two-months prior to the Grand Final tends to win. In 2024 Sydney had only won 6 of their last 11 games entering the Grand Final. Brisbane was 15-3-1 in their previous 19 games entering the Grand Final after a slow start. Brisbane were the team in better form. Yes, it's true, that over the entire season Sydney were probably the best team, but it's not necessarily the best team who wins the Grand Final - it's the team who is playing better in the two-month lead up to the Grand Final. Sydney really didn't tick any of those boxes. In fact, after starting the season 13-1, they never really recaptured that early season form at all. And if they hadn't recaptured that form in 3 months why would they suddenly find it on Grand Final day?

Going back to 2022, Geelong entered the Grand Final having won 15 straight games. I remember Daniel Hoyne from Champion Data saying that Geelong's "profile" in 2022 was so unbelievably good, that they would have to fall over not to win the premiership. Forget the fact that they were old - it's their profile and form that counts and the previous teams with 15-game winning streaks entering the Grand Final (Carlton in 1995 and Brisbane in 2001) won the Grand Final match easily. Maybe an 80-point thumping was a bit much, but a 10-goal win for the Cats should not have been entirely unexpected given they beat Brisbane by about 80 points the week before and hadn't lost for 4 months.

 

[Captain_Bender]

Sydney are a very mentally soft team, I mean they even lost to Richmond what losers

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

I wrote them off after the 112 point capitulation to Port. Today just confirmed why.

Did our clinical demolition of Port last week not factor in your calculations?

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Sydney are a very mentally soft team, I mean they even lost to Richmond what losers

Yet somehow we managed to finish top of the ladder. Weird.

 

[Captain_Bender]

Yet somehow we managed to finish top of the ladder. Weird.

And lost to Richmand got flogged in the grand final

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

What 2 years haha?

2019 and 2020. Are you simple or something?

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

And lost to Richmand got flogged in the grand final

Not sure your point.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Did our clinical demolition of Port last week not factor in your calculations?

Okay I guess it did redeem them somewhat, but at the back of my mind I just felt a team that lost that badly may not have the mental fortitude to beat a raging Lions today.

 

[Captain_Bender]

Not sure your point.

Even Richmond beats Sydney

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Even Richmond beats Sydney

And yet we finished a game clear on top of the ladder, so we beat a hell of a lot of really good teams, in fact I think I recall our record against top 8 teams was the best in the comp.

We seem to be going round in circles. Night.

 

[Captain_Bender]

And yet we finished a game clear on top of the ladder, so we beat a hell of a lot of really good teams, in fact I think I recall our record against top 8 teams was the best in the comp.

We seem to be going round in circles. Night.

And shit the bed badly when it matters, soft

 

[hk89]

Just 45 tackles today. Didn't turn up at all.

Wilted under the pressure.

Lions brought the heat early in the game as did the Hawks in 2014. Similar blowout.

Thought the same thing watching the game. Lions brought a lot of physicality, much like Hawthorn at the start of the 2014 GF, and it seemed to drive Sydney into their shell just as it did in 2014. Can't really explain it, as in general I don't see Sydney players as a soft group, but for some reason they are as soft as butter in GFs. The type of recent history they have now is hard to break free from too. Despite the wilting under physical pressure, they still looked competitive until Lions got a mini-break on them, and you could almost see the Sydney players starting to think "oh no, not again", and it all unravelled from there.

 

[South of the Yarra]

I rate people who troll on other boards during a painful loss as similar to people who kick kittens or push into the front of a long traffic queue on the motorway.

Stick in there mate. Your team was good enough to make whist another 16 teams were not (mine included). Most of those bagging the Swans are coming from teams who were absolute failures this year. Head up, the Bloods will be there again.

 

[South of the Yarra]

And shit the bed badly when it matters, soft

You know it’s tough day when the wooden spooners are trolling you

 

[RedWhite4Ever]

The game against St. Kilda - when they ran all over us in the second half. I knew then we were not going to make it. And then the Qualifying Final against GWS. We looked tired, slow and lazy. We got lucky in that game as GWS stopped cold at 3/4 time.

GWS would be kicking themselves though - had both these teams on ice and blew it.

 

[domus]

I rate people who troll on other boards during a painful loss as similar to people who kick kittens or push into the front of a long traffic queue on the motorway. Come onto the Collingwood board after we lose a grand final and you'll understand what might drive such shitty behaviour.

If you saw the crap Collingwood fans cop after any loss let alone grand final defeats you might gain an insight into the reasons for this shitty behaviour from a handful of our supporters.

 

[Irish BlueBagger]

All credit to Longmire for that 2012 flag win, but the Swans have played in five grand finals under him for one win.

They were destroyed in three out of their four grand final defeats under him as well.

That grand final was legacy defining for both him and the Swans. They finished top of the ladder, they were spoken about as likely premiers all year.

They still got destroyed in yet another grand final though. The Swanwobbles are every bit as real and probably worse at this stage than the Colliwobbles!

 

[Pies No 1]

It's pretty simple to see what happened to them. When they won those earlier grand finals they had the likes of Barry Hall, Mickey O, Adam Goodes. They had capable forwards.

Fast Forward a few years and they gave Buddy that ridiculously long contract. Yes Buddy gets bums on seats, but was the deal worth it in the end? Hindsight says no, as he brought them no success. They played Buddy as their number 1 forward. But as we saw at the Hawks he was most dangerous running down wings and playing a bit further down the ground. Sydney didn't have the forwards Hawthorn had available to them with S Reid being the only guy. So due to that foward line disfunction they were not successful with a flag in the Buddy era. So after Buddy leaves, it then does the opposite.. and leaves a hole with NO big forward at all. Relying on Amartey and McDonald insn't enough to win a flag.

Their best move would be to trade one of these midfielders as they do have excess.. probably be Warner over to a WA team, and use that trade to get a big forward from somewhere. Then they will win a flag. Amartey will go alright as the 2nd best forward, but not the guy taking the number 1 defender.

 

[Briar Gold]

All year I thought: no-one is speaking about their terrible GF record. They get off so lightly with the media but now we know what the Bloods Culture really is.