Teams with the most to lose this Finals Series

[GroggSquad]

Pass Marks:
Freo - Grand Final Appearance
West Coast - Prelim Appearance (Given they won't leave Perth)
Hawthorn - Flag
Sydney - Prelim Appearance (Given injuries)
Richmond - Win One Final
Western Bulldogs - Making Finals is a Pass
Adelaide - Making Finals is a Pass
North - Prelim Appearance (Equal last years effort)

 

[bradydaw91]

Given the past 2 years, surely Hawthorn needs to win the least? This year would be icing.

Also, Richmond should be in second place. And Sydney are too low - they'd want a flag after recruiting Buddy.

Yeah they would be perhaps in 6th on the list infront of Adelaide and Western Bulldogs, there wouldn't be huge incentive for them. They have already achieved so much.

 

[Moshie The Mook]

The team with the most to lose will be the team who loses the Grand Final. Therefore, Fremantle (if they do in fact lose). The reason I say Freo is because they haven't won a premiership, and Ross would not want to endure another GF loss.

I'm not sure what posters think will happen to the 7 finals teams who don't win the premiership. Will they spontaneously combust and cease to exist? Even North will survive next weeks loss.

 

[Pugz89]

Quite a few opposition posters have brought up how North topping up with players signaled their intentions for a flag assault and that anything but a top 4 level season would be considered a failure. This got my thinking about which of the teams in the finals this year have got the most hanging on the line in September/October. Feel free to criticise at will and/or construct your own lists:

1. Fremantle
For the first time in their history Freo have got something to put in the trophy cabinet and with this minor premiership comes the expectation of something a bit more significant. Finishing on top of the ladder with a game to spare allowed them to rest players and so with a clean bill of health they have no excuses this September. Have been around the mark for quite a few years and are lined up against a somewhat out of sorts Sydney team (due to injuries) while its biggest rivals for the flag have to duke it out on the other side of the draw. Sandilands, Pav, and other stars are getting on a bit + with the best midfielder in the game this season the Purple Haze will be disappointed bowing out before the last game of the season. They are running out of time to grab that elusive first premiership. What they need: a flag.

2. Hawthorn
May seem a bit harsh but a threepeat does not come around very often (yes I know Brisbane but bear with me). Another flag would transform Clarkson's Hawks from a great team into a dynasty. Admittedly they have had their shares of ups and downs this season and will have to get past a tough West Coast away (or go through the semi-final route) but most fans still have them as the premiership favourites. Like Fremantle they have a few older players who are in their last couple of seasons (although in fairness they have been able to rejuvenate their list quite successfully) so might only see another year as a contender. What they need: a flag.

3. North Melbourne
As previously touched upon North came into the season with high expectation off a surprising preliminary finals appearance. The recruitment of a couple of experienced players; Waite in particular heralded the expectations of a return to at least the second last weekend of the season. After this year and especially 2016 with Harvey, Petrie, Dal Santo, Wells etc. nearing the end, it is now or never to achieve the ultimate glory for these Roo veterans. Another inconsistent season has us in the bottom half of the 8 again so expectations may need to be adjusted but after a controversial selection policy last week bowing out week 1 would be embarrassing. What they/we need: an elimination final win and at least a competitive semi.

4. Richmond
The Tiger army is restless for some September success and the prospect of bowing out in week 1 for the third year in a row would be a nightmare for coaches, fans, and players. Their list is in pretty good shape age-wise so certainly not boom or bust however, finishing a win off top 4 will have the Punt Road faithful hoping to replicate Port and North last season in making it to prelim final week. The Tigers don't have the excuse of inexperience nor spending all their petrol tickets making the 8 this year. What they need: an elimination final win.

5. West Coast
One of the surprise packets of the season West Coast have managed, despite a decimated backline, to finish top 2 on the ladder and find themselves as one of the premiership favourites. There seems no reason why they can't stick around the most desirable positions on the ladder for the years to come, only a decade-ish after they last hoisted the trophy. This reduces the pressure on Simpson and co. however, a straight sets exit would be a disappointing way to end the season and the West Coast faithful are hopeful they might grab their 4th premiership; making them one of the most successful teams in the AFL era. What they need: a preliminary final birth.

6. Sydney
Sydney are their at the pointy end of the season but there seems little hype around last season's runners up. They have a couple of key players injured and haven't showed the dominance that got them into the Grand Final last year. It also seems likely they'll be around the mark again in 2016. Still, as with any top 4 team a loss in the second week of finals would be deemed a failure and there is no reason why some fans wouldn't expect them to knock of a vulnerable Freo. What they need: a preliminary final birth.

7. Adelaide
Facing the toughest of all circumstances this season in tragic fashion a rejuvenated Adelaide side had strong bookends to their season (round 23 aside) and find themselves as one of the hottest teams coming into September. There is little pressure on the team from the city of churches however, with speculation arguably best player Dangerfield is on his way home to Victoria they'd like to have a successful run at it while he is still at the club. What they need: an elimination final win.

8. Western Bulldogs
The most surprising team this season is also the one with no pressure going into the finals series. The young pups have exceeded all but the most optimistic Bulldogs' fans expectations and will host their first final under coaching sensation Luke Beveridge. The future seems bright at Footscray so a flop would not be too disheartening although ending the season with back to back losses would be disappointing, particularly given their successes against other contending sides this year. The Murphy-led Dogs will have no fear against any of the other teams in the 8. What they need: an elimination final win.

North need alot more than a competitive semi final. If that's all they got, it would mean they went backwards despite recruiting to go forwards. Richmond also need a prelim berth imo. Their list profile would be around the window, i'm aware they haven't won a final but if they gradually work their way up, they'll run out of time. With the group they have, they need to skip the respectable showing (That they should have shown last year by winning an EF) and jump straight to the business end for the season to be deemed a success. Dogs also don't NEED to win, nor do the Crows. Both in their first finals series in 5 and 4? years respectively. One will win, but both should be proud to even make finals given what they've been up against. The rest is fairly accurate for mine.

 

[sonnywalters]

Freo
Norf
Hawks


None of those three will be in a GF for a long time after this finals series. This is it for this generation of players.

 

[sonnywalters]

Hawks have most to lose.

When a great team starts to slip the descent is usually quick and merciless.

Dogs have least to lose. Bonus territory.

With two flags already these Hawks players have already won. They are winners.
They cant lose. Noone can take away those two flags.
I guess the same can said for the Swans 2012 players.
Eagles - Young side - they will be back here next year. Prelim or GF appearance on the cards.
Freo - Now or never. Heaps to lose. May not be back here for 20 years. This is it! Everything to lose.
Norf - See Freo. This is it. They wont be back here for a long time. Everything to lose.
Tigers - Need one finals win for morale. Should play finals in 2016.
Crows - Great effort getting here.
Dogs - Great effort getting here.

 

[Crows4Eva]

Honestly, as much as I want to see us win, I'll be happy as long as we're competitive this weekend. That was my pass-mark at the beginning of the year, considering everything that's happened since, just making it can be considered a pass IMO.

Two young sides with very little finals experience, will be very interesting. Adelaide have the healthier list injury-wise but the Dogs have the home state advantage which may negate that.

North and Richmond with the most to lose, Richmond especially will go into meltdown if they get knocked out in week 1 for the 3rd year running. Swans and Freo would definitely consider not grabbing the flag a missed opportunity, Hawthorn have the last 2 flags so hard to say they have much to lose realistically.

 

[Freomaniac]

Serious question.... Do we really want to see the Hawks win a flag?

 

[footyfan1978]

Honestly, as much as I want to see us win, I'll be happy as long as we're competitive this weekend. That was my pass-mark at the beginning of the year, considering everything that's happened since, just making it can be considered a pass IMO.

Two young sides with very little finals experience, will be very interesting. Adelaide have the healthier list injury-wise but the Dogs have the home state advantage which may negate that.

North and Richmond with the most to lose, Richmond especially will go into meltdown if they get knocked out in week 1 for the 3rd year running. Swans and Freo would definitely consider not grabbing the flag a missed opportunity, Hawthorn have the last 2 flags so hard to say they have much to lose realistically.

Regarding Dogs having home state advantage in your eyes. I'm really not sure it will apply in this case. I'd expect Bulldogs would only marginally have more fans than Crows there. Plenty of Crows fans will come over to see the game. I'm sure of it. Bulldogs do not have a big following. I would expect a crowd of maybe 45,000 to 50,000 and basically half of them will be Crows fans. So at the ground itself there will be just as many Crows fans cheering their team on as Doggie fans. I cannot see Dogs having any real home ground advantage at MCG in this final to help them.

Agree with everything else you said. Tend to agree Swans and Freo would consider it missed opportunity to not get a flag but in reality a flag is something to gain, not really lose, unless you are odds on favourites all season to win it. A win by either Crows or Dogs is a step forward as a club. Hawks have won recent flags so for them to win this flag would be another gain. If they do not win it, the let down will still be there but given they already achieved a few recent premierships it will not be the loss to compare to when Tigers or North get eliminated next week and have to watch 3 more weeks of finals that they will not be part of. Tigers and North have a lot invested in this years finals campaign of making impact. The side gone Sunday will feel the biggest loss to bare over the off season.

 

[FISTO]

1. Dockers because this is the best chance they're going to get to break their duck. Had an amazing run with injuries compared to most teams and have no excuses for not bringing it home. Still the team to beat IMO, recent form doesn't change that.

2. Tigers because they've been talked up so much and their supporters/media seem to rate them in a different stratosphere compared to most neutral observers. They're gonna cop it so hard if they get smashed in another EF. They don't have to win the flag but they'd want to win week 1.

3. North because they declared their hand and recruited for a red hot crack at the flag. If they don't at least match last year's effort then they've taken a step backwards despite their moves to improve.

4. Hawks as they've declined to play youth and are in for one hell of a rebuild once their era ends within the next few years. Need to cash in now. Have runs on the board which allows them to slip lower then Richmond and North on this list.

5. Adelaide would want to make the most of their last year with Dangerfield. Their midfield looks shocking without him (assuming they can't semi-adequately replace him) when he leaves at the end of the year.

6. Swans as things are only going to get tougher for them with the trade restrictions and COLA err restructuring. Simply won't have the wiggle room to improve their squad going forward the same way that they have in years gone by.

No heat on;
Dogs, Eagles
I think these two sides can play without fear as they're probably the biggest over achievers this year which make them very dangerous. Eagles more so as they're obviously the stronger team but good luck to the Dogs.

 

[YEOLO]

1. Freo (Ross Lyon factor, never won a flag, with the age of their list you feel now is their last chance)
2. North (aging list, have recruited for the short term, if they don't get it done now I think it'll be a long time before the next chance)
3. Sydney (big money signings need to win a flag to justify them)
Considerable Gap
4. Richmond (recent finals appearance failings. Need to definitely win their first game and at least give a good account of themselves if they make it to the second)
5. Hawthorn (premiership favourites, looking for that 3peat. But as others have said it would really just be the icing.
6. West Coast (far succeeded expectations especially with the KPD injuries. Need to avoid a straight set exit though)
Considerable Gap
7/8. Adelaide and Bulldogs. (cant split) (The year the crows have had with the Walsh tragedy and no one expected the Dogs to be anywhere near the 8. For these two, just being here is a success.)

 

[SBYM]

Anyone know which coach has the most GF losses without a flag?

 

[thirsty camel 1]

freo have the most to lose . their window has been open for a while now .
ross lyon is getting a reputation of not being able to get a team over the line .

 

[Somebody]

Anyone know which coach has the most GF losses without a flag?

Bob Rose?

 

[footyfan1978]

Anyone know which coach has the most GF losses without a flag?

I would think Ross Lyon in 2009, 2010 and 2013.
3 losses and one draw too.

However Tom Hafey already had coached a few Richmond premierships but in his last 4 years he got his sides to grand finals, they ended up not winning any. In fact he started with a draw in 1977 grand final and the next four grand final were all losses. He ended up coaching Geelong and Sydney after Collingwood but never coached in another grand final after 1981 loss to Carlton.

I would be surprised if another coach has coached more grand finals than Ross Lyon without ever winning one.

 

[footyfan1978]

Bob Rose?

3 losses. Same as Ross Lyon but Lyon has coached in 4 grand finals of which one is a draw. However Ross can still win one and I suspect in time he will when he creates a team that can kick winning scores in grand finals.

 

[SBYM]

Bob Rose?

Obviously a pretty revered bloke at your club, if not numero uno....

I doubt Lyon will be afforded the same respect if he doesn't land one.

 

[have a RHG]

everyone. If you don't win the last game there will be tears. 1 teams finals series is no more important then any others

 

[Dr Awkward]

We need to win a final for the mental health of the fans, players, coaches and media.

In terms of the actual list direction, I still think we are a couple of years from peaking.

 

[Lsta062]

agree, but North has topped up and put everything in to this year, Tiges would be a couple of years away from their age profile.

A 1 point loss to North would be no disgrace, but Tiges have to show up and neither be blown away early, or overrun late.

Yes, agree with that. I still think a pass mark would at least be to won a final. They can't lose another after finishing 5th again

 

[Freoforever86]

Think everyone has everything to lose now. Any of these teams can beat the other on the day.

Really want to avoid Richmond though. Got a feeling about them. If things go their way, they may only have to travel once.

 

[Ricmel]

I think Richmond need to win a final. Another first round exit will confirm in everyone's mind that they are a 5 - 8 team and that is about it. ( think they can win a couple BTW).

Possibly Norths last crack with this group, seem to have gone backwards from 2014.

But I think most to lose is Swans. Have invested big time in getting this group another flag and it could all fall horribly apart if they do not have success and players forced to take pay cuts start to look elsewhere.

 

[Kram]

Hawthorn easily have the best team on paper so them.

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Norf needed to get top 4 to win it. They will struggle from here.
Richmond just need to win a final. Any final. Anywhere. ASAP.
Freo are under the most pressure. They need that flag. Most teams that lose a GF go on to win one soon after. With an aging list they are running out of time.

 

[Ron The Bear]

I would think Ross Lyon in 2009, 2010 and 2013.
3 losses and one draw too.

However Tom Hafey already had coached a few Richmond premierships but in his last 4 years he got his sides to grand finals, they ended up not winning any. In fact he started with a draw in 1977 grand final and the next four grand final were all losses. He ended up coaching Geelong and Sydney after Collingwood but never coached in another grand final after 1981 loss to Carlton.

I would be surprised if another coach has coached more grand finals than Ross Lyon without ever winning one.

Checker Hughes lost his four GF's before winning five.