The Ask a No Passengers Member a Question Thread

[Cynic]

I have a question.

Will either or Cotchin & McNamara or Valenti & Hansen representing reasonable benches for me over the next 11 weeks?

At the moment I have Masten & Rioli on the bench but don't want to downgrade to players who aren't likely to play the majority of games due to the question marks on the other emergencies in that position...

 

[Kai88]

Question is how do you think montagna will fare for the rest of the season? currently at 350k, averaged well last year and a possible cheaper alternative to corey/bartel?

 

[Antagonist]

i am looking to upgrade houli > bartel/ murphy. my question is. do i trade them in this round or wait another week? with houli's b/e around 80 and bartels 140 and murphy with a 54 in his sytsem i'm likely to make 15-20k. where do you draw the line between making money and making 30 more points?

Let's look at what you give up (points per week) by waiting a week, and compare that to the money you may save:

For arguements sake lets say you are sacrificing 30 points each week you wait to trade. At this point in time, waiting 1 week is an opportunity cost of 2-3 ppw for the rest of the season (30 points divided into the remaining games). 54Dogs has already gone through the value of 1ppw on this thread being around 4.3k, so in order for the trade to be any value you would need to be looking at making at least 14-15k per week you wait. (Personally I would look at more, around 20k, as I rate ppw higher)

Going by FFGenie, Murph has a B/E of 98, very gettable, and won't go down much, so it isn't worth waiting a week for him. The week after he should go down further, but by then you have lost another 30 points, so thats another 2-3 ppw, making your opportunity cost around 4-6 ppw for the rest of the season, to make less than 15k, definetly not worth waiting for Murph.

Bartel with a B/E of 139 means it is more likely he will fall by between 10-15k. This is a borderline decision. So my opinion would be to wait only if you believe you can use that saving in a very effective way, by allowing you to do a later upgrade, hinging on the 10-15k to net you more ppw than you give up. If you are close to the end of your upgrading, then it is probably not worth waiting.

Hope that helps!

 

[OO74812]

I have a really big game and I'm not sure who to put captain??
My better players are Franklin, Chad Cornes, Carrazzo, Stanton, Montagna, Jonathon Brown, Brad Johnson.

 

[Stormer]

My instinct says go Montagna.

 

[OO74812]

My instinct says go Montagna.

Any reason or just gut?? coz that's a pretty big risk.

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Advice Required:

Current Team:

BACKS - C.Cornes, Shaw, Kennelly, McLeod, Goddard, Gilbee, Ibbotson (Hartlett, N.Brown)
MIDS - K.Cornes, Ablett, Judd, Goodes, Stevens, Palmer (Browne, Bird)
RUCKS - Cox, Simmonds (Kreuzer, Gardiner)
FORWARDS - J.Brown, B.Johnson, Riewoldt, Pavlich, Chapman, Franklin, Gamble (Tippett, C.Stokes)

$49200 in bank with 8 trades left.

Plan to trade one of my ruckmen later in the season (near finals) to any 72k ruckman provided my other 3 are playing and use that cash for the final "top ups".

Have some major concerns with my 7th forward of Gamble/Tippett if they have another week like last week.

Could trade them both for Valenti and someone like Giansiracusa or S.Johnson but am worried that a Valenti/C.Stokes bench may leave me with 2 non-playing reserves later in the season.

Also worried about the long term future of my midfield Bench of Bird and Browne so perhaps Cotchin should come in for Bird?

Any suggestions? If I trade one of Gamble or Tippett, which one should I trade?

I have a really big game and I'm not sure who to put captain??
My better players are Franklin, Chad Cornes, Carrazzo, Stanton, Montagna, Jonathon Brown, Brad Johnson.

Just a heads up guys, but I think that team-specific questions should be kept to the main thread in the future.

OO74812, there is already a captains thread where you can find lots of advice.

 

[Stormer]

Any reason or just gut?? coz that's a pretty big risk.

Just gut instinct. I ca

Cox will probably get over 100 though

 

[Mr.Jingles]

What i am about to ask next will shape the outcome for my team for the rest of the season.
This is the decision i have to make in order to make sure i do well in eliminator as well as league and overall ranking!

Overall Ranking: 440
Eliminator Status: ACTIVE
League position: 1st/ 4th/ 1st

Now, the question.

I have a vital decision to make and have been wanting to trade either of these blokes out for the last few weeks but have been forced to do other things instead..injuries, late withdrawls etc.

Now i have 30,000 in the bank and am looking to trade either of GRAM and OSBOURNE, it is impossible and stupid to trade both.

Now here comes a series of questions.

Which one do i trade?
within this question i want to know which player will score better this week.
Osbourne: named in the pocket and playing doggies at aurora?
Gram: Playing Melbourne named half back flank?

and then the question is for whom?
If osbourne is the choice then i can trade him straight out for drummond.

Wheras if gram is the choice i require more funds.
i was thinking of doing a downgrade with proud to either wilkes or tim houlihan, i think is named as a back giving me an extra 60,000/90,000 overall and allowing me to also trade gram for drummond.

I really require someones thoughts on this as it will definately make or break my year
Cheers
??????????

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Jingles, it'd be helpful if you told us your current backline (including reserves).

 

[Mr.Jingles]

Current Backline:

Shaw
Cornes
Bock
Osbourne
Newman
Gram
Goddard

Proud
Sdt

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Current Backline:

Shaw
Cornes
Bock
Osbourne
Newman
Gram
Goddard

Proud
Sdt

Okay.

Based on both past and present data, I think the top scoring backs that you don't have will be Burgoyne, Birchall, King, Bowden and Mackie.

The problem is that you wouldn't have enough to get any of those without using an additional trade.

As a general rule, don't trading one 'rookie' for another. Its just too risky. Who's to say that Proud won't play next week while Houlihan may be dropped? There's no guarantee. It is a very risky trade. So that potential trade gets a thumbs down I'm afraid.

And if you look at Drummond's record, you'll find that he has been plagued by injury for the past few seasons. He is a big risk. If you had a reliable reserve then it would be less risky, but I'd still advise against. Again, a thumbs down from me.

My final point is on Osbourne and Gram in respect to the rest of your team. Do you not have any higher priority upgrades? Osbourne has been averaging almost 80 - ranked 16th on average points and 11th on total points. The top backs this season (besides Cornes and Shaw) will probably only average 85-90. Therefore you're not gaining alot by upgrading Osbourne.

Gram is not as good as Ozzy, only averaging 63. I would agree that he should be upgraded. But at this stage of the season, you really want to get a top-line back. One of the ones I mentioned earlier would be ideal. Anyone lower and you're skimping a little. The other one I'd recommend is Milburn, but I don't think he'll be in the top 8 backs at the season's end. Probably thereabouts though.

Drummond is a risk. I've stated my opinion, but I can't predict the future so he may end up averaging 95 for the rest of the season. Unfortunately, I can give no guarantees. At the end of the day you should be comfortable in the decision you make.

 

[jdwood]

To paraphrase a much longer question...

Do you guys think cashing in on 55k (Proud-> Wilkes) is worthy of the trade, with no other decent downgrade options around?

 

[johncocksasuperstar]

Who do people think the top 8 or so backs will be? There is the obvious Chornes and Shaw at 1 and 2, but nearly every other backman has question marks on him. There are also a lot around the same scores so far but could swing. There is King, Goddard, Fisher, Birchall, Bowden, Johncock, McLeod, Newman, Drummond, PBurg, Bock, McPhee, Mackie, Milburn and McMahon, plus possibly a few others. How can they be chosen between presuming you have the obvious 2?

 

[Cruiser23]

Who do people think the top 8 or so backs will be? There is the obvious Chornes and Shaw at 1 and 2, but nearly every other backman has question marks on him. There are also a lot around the same scores so far but could swing. There is King, Goddard, Fisher, Birchall, Bowden, Johncock, McLeod, Newman, Drummond, PBurg, Bock, McPhee, Mackie, Milburn and McMahon, plus possibly a few others. How can they be chosen between presuming you have the obvious 2?

I think this is probably the million dollar question for the year. They are all so up and down that i don't think anyone can predict what will happen, i think you can really only trust your instincts on this question and follow your gut feeling.

FWIW, my predictions of the top 7 backman from now on is as followed:
Cornes and Shaw for obvious reasons are numbers one and two respectively.

3. P.Burgoyne - Great end to last year, is the quarter back for Port and the power players give him the ball on every oportunity. Will get you 20+ touches each week and has the ability to score very big. Also could get some time in the midfield which he showed he could score well on the weekend.

4. J.Bowden - Forgotten man, won't pick him up this year because he has given me to much grief. DT gun who even playing forward has shown he cn still get 70+ and it is only a matter of time before he starts getting bigger score because he just attracts the ball.

5. Goddard - Pretty disappointing thus far this year even though he has come back from a knee reco. I think Ross, after the weekend, realises his best position is a Heath Shaw like role and if so, his score will start rising.

6. Mackie - Very much a great backline choice and a fairly unique one at that. He gets many cheap touches and also pushes forward. Hardly ever has an opponent and he does play for the Cats which helps alot.

7. Milburn - Super-consistent, really all that needs to be said. Probably will score a little less than he should because Egan is out and Taylor is struggling but still and very good bet for an 80+ score every week.

You could make a case for most of the other option, especially Birchall and Johncock. As i said, million dollar question and i think any of the players 7 (including Johncock and Birchall) that i have named are very good options, the others have baggage and are less safe picks IMO.

 

[Rack Watts]

Heya guys!
I just read up about this dream team stuff and I decided to make a team for round 10!
Can you tell me what you think the team is like.. Even if its poo!
THanks <3

1. Peter Burgoyne
2. Milburn
3. Fletcher
4. Rutten
5. C.Brown
6. Wonaemirri
7. Ryder

8. Cooney
9. Deladio
10. Palmer
11. Griffen (rubgy sidestep = champ)
12. Mark McVeigh
13. Wellingham

14. Cox
15. Kreuzer

16. Richardson (Batman)
17. Pavlich
18. Porplyzia
19. N Brown (Robin)
20. Neon Leon Davis
21. Roughead
22. Tippett

 

[bilza069]

Looks like I am going to have to trade one of my bench ruckmen for a 72k rookie to free up some cash for elsewhere.

Who would you trade out of Kreuzer and M.Gardiner? They are both almost identical in price and average points at the moment.

Second question - who would you think is the best option as a 7th forward out of:

Giansiracusa
Nathan G Brown
O'Keefe
S.Johnson

I already have JB, BJ, Pav, Buddy, Chappy, Voldt.

Cheers

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

J.Drummond

Has he bottomed out?? He has only scored well once this season and that score was mainly due to his 12 disposals in the 1st qtr. J.King or Drummond whos better at the same price who would you pick?? who will avg the most from here on in?? i have hartlett and S.D.T on bench so i need them to play all the time.

 

[Stormer]

Get king or mcmahon

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Get king or mcmahon

It would be good if you have reasoning behind that.

Anyone can make a gut decision, but if your decision has solid logic behind it then it will be more impressive, and there's a higher chance people will actually take note.

 

[Stormer]

King or McMahon are averaging rather high this season and are pretty consistent. Wouldn't get Drummond because he's too injury prone

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

my team will look like this in 2 weeks time after round 11

J.Drummond
C.Cornes
H.Shaw
Birchall
Goddard
Milburn
P.Burgoyne

Cross
Priddis
J.Bartel
B.Mclean
N.Stevens
K.Cornes

Sandilands
Simmonds

Chapman
Riewoldt
Pavlich
B.Johnson
L.B.F
J.Brown
Porplyzia

does this team need any more upgrades?
can i get + Bartel + Riewoldt (after sydney game) + Drummond for >> Wonaeamirri + Palmer + T.Cloke + 179 100

 

[kirbatron]

How do you get on the private board?

 

[Antagonist]

Here is a question I have been looking at this week, is the value of a good reserve worth an extra trade to hold onto?

My situation:

12 trades remaining, 105k in bank:

Pressing upgrades left to do: 7th forward, 6th mid (2)

I'm looking at upgrading either Rioli or Tippett to Buddy or Rob Murphy. I am downgrading Masten to Cotchin this week for this trade, who will eventually be my midfield cover (will have to play for 1-2 weeks until my mid CC's (Browne, Geary) mature).

The problem is whether it is worth keeping Rioli in my situation over Tippett, which would mean I would need to use an extra trade, leaving me with 7 for injuries/optional upgrades. I do have concerns with the durability of some of my forwards, and to add to the mix, I have Chappy that needs to be covered for at least the next week.

Cheers for any opinions!

 

[thebaxters]

Looks like I am going to have to trade one of my bench ruckmen for a 72k rookie to free up some cash for elsewhere.

Who would you trade out of Kreuzer and M.Gardiner? They are both almost identical in price and average points at the moment.

Second question - who would you think is the best option as a 7th forward out of:

Giansiracusa
Nathan G Brown
O'Keefe
S.Johnson

I already have JB, BJ, Pav, Buddy, Chappy, Voldt.

Cheers

Wrt the ruck question, ask yourself two things:
1. Who do you thinkis more likely to get a game week in, week out?
2. Who do you think has the bigger upside in terms of ppg form this point on, a first year rookie, or a former AA ruckman who is coming back form injury?

Wrt the second question, are you looking for form, upside or consistency? Gia is playing consistent DT footy above his previous performances (buying high), N.G.Brown is a former DT gun coming back into good form after a long stretch recovering form injury (on the up), O'Keefe is a consistent player down on form currently but expected to return (buying low), S.Johnson was Top 7 last year, down on form and still averaging 80's, likely to return to form in a dominant team (buying low).

J.Drummond

Has he bottomed out?? He has only scored well once this season and that score was mainly due to his 12 disposals in the 1st qtr. J.King or Drummond whos better at the same price who would you pick?? who will avg the most from here on in?? i have hartlett and S.D.T on bench so i need them to play all the time.

Yeah, he's probably bottomed out, or close enbough that you can see it from here. IMO Drummond may average better (based on his previous seasons scores), but is more likely to miss chunks of the season with injury. Even if King averages 10 ppg less than him, he can peg that difference back over a week if Drummond is out. If you have no coverage on the bench, it should be a pretty obvious choice.

How do you get on the private board?

You get invited.

Here is a question I have been looking at this week, is the value of a good reserve worth an extra trade to hold onto?

My situation:

12 trades remaining, 105k in bank:

Pressing upgrades left to do: 7th forward, 6th mid (2)

I'm looking at upgrading either Rioli or Tippett to Buddy or Rob Murphy. I am downgrading Masten to Cotchin this week for this trade, who will eventually be my midfield cover (will have to play for 1-2 weeks until my mid CC's (Browne, Geary) mature).

The problem is whether it is worth keeping Rioli in my situation over Tippett, which would mean I would need to use an extra trade, leaving me with 7 for injuries/optional upgrades. I do have concerns with the durability of some of my forwards, and to add to the mix, I have Chappy that needs to be covered for at least the next week.

Cheers for any opinions!

If you only have one forward and one mid upgrade to make, you have enough trades to roll the dice. Trading Rioli will net you more cash for an upgrade (262K at the moment, with a predicted increase of 20K over the next 3 weeks) or average 72 on the pine. Trading Tippett will net you less cash for an upgrade (197K at the moment, with a predicted decrease of 21K over the next 3 weeks) or average 46 on the pine. If you need the extra cash for an upgrade now, Rioli seems the right move (although if you could wait a couple of weeks for a trade target to decrease in price, it might be more beneficial), but if, as you say, you need the coverage in the fielded 7, he would be a better target to retain. Difficult if you have your heart set on Franklin/Murphy, who look like hovering around 400K. Maybe look at a forward around 310-350K?