The Ask a No Passengers Member a Question Thread

[happy_eagle]

A summary on Marc Murphy would be nice, im considering him as an upgrade for Palmer.
Thanks.

Marc is having a break-out year this year. Averaging just over 100, from the 70 odd that he was last year. He is currently at the price of around 405,000, and at that price must be considered a keeper. However, we have noticed that marc is unable to hold or break any tag that comes his way. Usually with Judd in the midfield this is almost non-existance, but as injury cramps juddy, more focus will be put onto murph, and the sooner he is able to manage it, the better.

Carlton tags
Number 1 tag- Judd
Number 2 tag- Murphy
Number 3 tag- Stevens


So basically murphy needs judd to be playing, to score well.

Scores when tagged
81,54, 68, 83
Scores when not tagged
98, 122, 90, 94, 104, 108, 142, 125, 135, 104


From those figures, we can see that he is very much a high hundered scorer. He will either get in the 90's or over the 110 mark, which is golden in DT

So the biggest thing for murph is the tag. If either Judd or Stevo arnt playing, then i would expect Murph to suffer DT wise, otherwise he is a safe bet

But i also think that there are so many better options at that price, all that can handle tags

Bartel- 387,000- Cant beleive this bloke never gets the tag, and if he does, i am sure he can break it. Havnt seen him have a bad game
Corey- 380,600- Having a ripper of a season. Similar to murph though, in the fact that he always gets the second tag behind ablet, which can sometimes produce a 70
K.Cornes- 385,200- This bloke does the lot. Tags and gets the pill himself. Worry is when he is tagging a tough opponent, where he will ocasionly sacrifice his own scores for the tag
Cross- 371,000- Pretty sure most teams have this guy, but if not he is one of the most consistant DT'ers going around


My Verdict- Murphy should average well, considering Judd should always get tag no 1. If judd is not playing though, be worried. There are better and safer options

 

[Hirdy_5]

Not a No Passenger but thought I would give it a go,

It’s his third year in the system now and this year has been his real break-out year. Suffered allot last year when Nick Stevens went down in round three meaning Marc would cop the number one tag week to week, now with Stevens back and Judd in the side it frees him up a lot more.

Averaging 102 points this season and is priced at $406,200, his price has risen by $80,000, Majority of his points come from kicks and marks averaging 17.5 kicks and 7 marks a game, which is important for a midfielder, take Simon black for example he has had the exact same amount of possessions as Murphy yet only averages the 3 marks per game. He also kicks goals with 10 for the season which is also handy for a midfielder.

But if you’re really considering him I wouldn’t go for him, I personally believe there are better options out there, Bartel, Corey ect, whom are all cheaper than him and average similar scores as Murphy. Was at a bargain price at the start of the year but you have missed the boat. If your looking to upgrade Palmer to someone I’d suggest someone more unique…

Hope that helps…

EDIT - All these stat don't include this round...

Some more “unique” picks may be,

Brad Green - $357,000 – With an average on 94.7 and only 1,764 picks.
Matthew Boyd - $419,600 – Averaging 96.3 and only 1,563 selections.
Andrew Carrazzo - $348,900 – Averaging 94 this season and with the 10,227 picks.
Brent Harvey – $369,500 – Has an average of 93.1 and just the 11,172 picks
Luke Power - $374,500 – Average of 92.6 and has 5,007 total picks.
Rhyce Shaw – $353,400 – Averaging 93.1 and 5,107 picks.
Cameron Bruce - $394,600 – Average of 92.4 and 2,085 selections.
Luke Ball - $370,800 – Average of 91.6 and 4,062 selections.
Lenny Hayes - $331,600 – Average of 90.4 and 7,334 selections.

My top 3 would be,

1.) Brad Green
2.) Brent Harvey
3.) Matthew Boyd

Hope this helps...

 

[happy_eagle]

Not a No Passenger

But so close

 

[Hirdy_5]

But so close

I don't understand ?

 

[happy_eagle]

I don't understand ?

So close to becoming one

Dare i say on the verge ?

Na, i better not. Keep it suspensfull

You have my vote

 

[Hirdy_5]

So close to becoming one

Dare i say on the verge ?

Na, i better not. Keep it suspensfull

You have my vote

I now understand.

 

[NewBabyBombaz]

and im sure we all predicted it mate

I didnt see you trying to post your thoughts

When i did that, i was just using examples of Guns that you could have used. Bare in mind that i wrote that at the beginning of the season, where ablett, although was good, hadnt had the impact on DT coaches that he has now. At the begining of the season, he had only had 1 break-out season, and needed another one to be considered elite (he has now)

why dont you contribute to this thread, rather than abusing others

Okay, Apoligies no offence was intended, just seemed strange reading that post without mention of G.Ablett. Anyway if you want a contribution then I suppose my expertise is defenders! I would like to say Sam Fisher is in my opinion the number one defender to have coming towards the end o the season, especially with his successful move into the midfield against the Roos, maybe to late to get on board but in my opinion he is a gun,

Richmon has 4 possibe defenders to choose from, all being quite popular and 'succesful' however leading into the finals time, my suggestions would be forget J.King and to a lesser extent J.Mcmahon as they are unreliable and it will cost you, and C.Newman though good seems slightly unreliable? I think everyone will soon regret not getting back on board the J-Bo bandwagon, he is great at getting the cheap possesions and is a proven gun.

Other notable defenders I would suggest would be Wheatley, though he may be considered injury prone he is a very scorer, not convinced on Mackie yet, H.Shaw I have been told in essential, though his new found tag seems to really bother him. Roughead and Osbourne despite criticism have proven to be good value for money and one player still cheapish who may go under the radar in defence but worth a mention is Jarred Brennan, has potential to be a game winner yet his inconsistency is a concern. Bock and Johncock are good bu I wouldn't buy them at ovr 320 K.

Joel Mcdonald and Adam Mcphee are two other players too watch as they seem underpriced and about to run into a rich vein of form.

I am open to any criticism and no I have not forgotten any players these are the players I wanted to comment on. Cheers

 

[Crows88]

I know understand.

now*

 

[happy_eagle]

Good stuff there

In a year were the defenders have been jack shiezen, its good to see someone willing to analyse a dying race

I agree with all of your points there

I had a graph with the top 7 backs on it, il see if i can find it

 

[Crows88]

I know this is supposed to be an ask a question thread but I thought I'd see if i could get a bit more discussion flowing.

TOP 7 BACKS TO DATE (in terms of total points):

Bock
Shaw
Johncock
Fisher
McMahon
Newman
McDonald

TOP 7 ON AVERAGE ALONE:

Mackie
Bock
Cornes
Shaw
Bowden
Wheatley
Johncock

MY TOP 7 AVERAGING BACKS FOR THE END OF THE YEAR:

Shaw
Bowden
Mackie
Cornes
Bock
Wheatley
Fisher

NOTEABLE BACKMEN TO PICK NEXT YEAR (if things stay the way they are)

Waters
Malceski
Drummond
Cornes
McPhee

 

[Hirdy_5]

NOTEABLE BACKMEN TO PICK NEXT YEAR (if things stay the way they are)

Waters
Malceski
Drummond
Cornes
McPhee

I think that Mcphee is an interesting one, he has been playing forward all year as a lead up type player, this has lowered his scores all season as he hasn’t been getting cheap kicks and running of the half backline were he would normal get the 3rd – 4th tall forward which allowed him to do this, With an average of 73 and his highest score only being 108 I wont be considering him until / unless he goes back to the half backline.

Also I wouldn’t be surprised if he was classified as a forward next season with his new role this season…

 

[Crows88]

I think that Mcphee is an interesting one, he has been playing forward all year as a lead up type player, this has lowered his scores all season as he hasn’t been getting cheap kicks and running of the half backline were he would normal get the 3rd – 4th tall forward which allowed him to do this, With an average of 73 and his highest score only being 108 I wont be considering him until / unless he goes back to the half backline.

Also I wouldn’t be surprised if he was classified as a forward next season with his new role this season…

Yes McPhee will be an interesting one. If his role changes back to a back next year and he is named as a back in DT he could prove to be one of the picks of the year as he will be likely to be nicely discounted!

 

[NewBabyBombaz]

Andrew Carrazzo and Heath Scotland are surely going to be classed as backs next season, I think both will probably be must buys, particularly Carrazzo he is a gun!

 

[Stormer]

Wouldn't be surprised if he fell out of favour with Carlton though.

 

[Juddtastic]

Corey Enright should be classified as a back next season too, would be a handy pick up if this years backline debacle is anything to go by

 

[bones25]

Don't forget the forgotten man, Walker. Actually he must be getting close.

 

[Crows88]

Don't forget the forgotten man, Walker. Actually he must be getting close.

Played for bullants on the weekend rotating between a HFF flank and middle, apparently played quite well and didn't look like he'd lost much fitness, kicked 1 I think.

 

[scarface1987]

anyone wanna have a go at writing up a report on DAVID MUNDY?

 

[Ryder]

Some more “unique” picks may be,

Brad Green - $357,000 – With an average on 94.7 and only 1,764 picks.
Matthew Boyd - $419,600 – Averaging 96.3 and only 1,563 selections.
Andrew Carrazzo - $348,900 – Averaging 94 this season and with the 10,227 picks.
Brent Harvey – $369,500 – Has an average of 93.1 and just the 11,172 picks
Luke Power - $374,500 – Average of 92.6 and has 5,007 total picks.
Rhyce Shaw – $353,400 – Averaging 93.1 and 5,107 picks.
Cameron Bruce - $394,600 – Average of 92.4 and 2,085 selections.
Luke Ball - $370,800 – Average of 91.6 and 4,062 selections.
Lenny Hayes - $331,600 – Average of 90.4 and 7,334 selections.

My top 3 would be,

1.) Brad Green
2.) Brent Harvey
3.) Matthew Boyd

Hope this helps...

Thanks for that. I am considering Green and Bruce but i dont know if the injury to Mclean will effet their scores. What do you think ?

 

[Crows88]

Thanks for that. I am considering Green and Bruce but i dont know if the injury to Mclean will effet their scores. What do you think ?

I don't think the injury will affect Bruce to much he has been a DT gun for years and seems to find the footy regardless of who is playing his last 5 years he's averaged: 75.3, 86.3, 75.9, 100.4, 96.9.

He did have an injury interupted pre-season and that must be taken into consideration as the question must be asked, will he slow down towards the end of the season? The Green one is interesting I've watched him closely and I have liked the look of him. He has been playing a quarter back role and taking alot of marks. He may well get more attention with McLean gone and it is yet to be seen how he handles this. If he stays in this sweeper role then get on him, however, if he is tagged in that position his scores may get hurt big time, ala Gilbee, Shaw, P.Burger when they are tagged as the sweeper. Leave it a week and wait and see if you are set on Green.

Also, as has been spoken about alot lately on the NP board, will lower end teams rest their guns towards the end of the season. If Bruce or Green slightly hurt and ankle for example, you would think teams would just rest them to ensure they don't do any long term damage, whereas if Cross or Boyd injured their ankle they would be wanted back ASAP.

 

[Hirdy_5]

Thanks for that. I am considering Green and Bruce but i dont know if the injury to Mclean will effet their scores. What do you think ?

The last time Mclean missed a game it was near the start of last year. This graph shows the scores of Bruce, Green and Jones when Mclean was absent from the side.

During this period when Mclean didn’t play, Bruce averaged 105.8 compared to his overall average last year 97 points. Green averaged 88.6 compared to his season average of 89 and Jones averaged 62.3 compared to his season average of 70.

So what this show is that with Mclean out of the side it doesn’t change theses 3 players scores all that much. The only thing that may hurt there scores is if they have a role change or a minor injury as Crows88 said.

 

[54Dogs]

Nice post Hirdy and I think the mantle of most impact certainly goes to Jones.

The number 1 tag all year for Melbourne has gone to either McLean or Jones and in some cases (ie Geelong) has switched between the 2 during the game. Given McLean's absence I would think the most likely scenario is a weekly shutdown role on Jones who has also shown he is suspect in this situation (Simpson in Kanga's game).

Green has played the perfect DT role this year being the non-accountable floating behind the ball midfielder. Plenty of cheap kicks and marks but his form has also been excellent. He may get more attention but I would think this is more through his good form than because of McLean's absence. Bruce has been given different jobs every week such as tagging, playing forward or rotation through the middle so the likelihood of him being tagged is very low.

If you have a player who can cause damage when not tagged but who has also showed they can be shut out when they are tagged they are a prime candidate. McLean was this player and Jones now is.

 

[Hirdy_5]

Nice post Hirdy and I think the mantle of most impact certainly goes to Jones.

The number 1 tag all year for Melbourne has gone to either McLean or Jones and in some cases (ie Geelong) has switched between the 2 during the game. Given McLean's absence I would think the most likely scenario is a weekly shutdown role on Jones who has also shown he is suspect in this situation (Simpson in Kanga's game).

Green has played the perfect DT role this year being the non-accountable floating behind the ball midfielder. Plenty of cheap kicks and marks but his form has also been excellent. He may get more attention but I would think this is more through his good form than because of McLean's absence. Bruce has been given different jobs every week such as tagging, playing forward or rotation through the middle so the likelihood of him being tagged is very low.

If you have a player who can cause damage when not tagged but who has also showed they can be shut out when they are tagged they are a prime candidate. McLean was this player and Jones now is.

See that's what i thought as well untill i looked up Jones career stats and found that the injury that occured to Mclean last year would have only been 10 or so games into Jones career so he wouldn't be the player that he is now. But yes as you say the tag is now rotated through Jones and Mclean depending on what team Melbourne play so we may see a down slope in Jones DT scores for the remainder of the season...

 

[thebaxters]

See that's what i thought as well untill i looked up Jones career stats and found that the injury that occured to Mclean last year would have only been 10 or so games into Jones career so he wouldn't be the player that he is now. But yes as you say the tag is now rotated through Jones and Mclean depending on what team Melbourne play so we may see a down slope in Jones DT scores for the remainder of the season...

Which would make him an attractive target for next season.

Anyone else seeing a pattern about these kids peaking the year after they are hyped? I just about flat out ignore them if they are hyped up, and get them in the following year - was Murphy and Franklin last year, and could be Jones, Houli, Dyson, et al next year. Just seems that extra year under the belt primes them.

 

[Hirdy_5]

Which would make him an attractive target for next season.

Anyone else seeing a pattern about these kids peaking the year after they are hyped? I just about flat out ignore them if they are hyped up, and get them in the following year - was Murphy and Franklin last year, and could be Jones, Houli, Dyson, et al next year. Just seems that extra year under the belt primes them.

Houli will be entering his 3rd year in the system next year and this is normally they breakout year for most players bar KPP, Jones will be going into his 4th season and will be a bitlike Houli but as for Dyson i don't think he will make it, he was Hyped up alot and Knights loves him but he isn't showing enough at the moment.