The Bulldogs and Umpires: Time for a Royal Commission?

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Lavender Bushranger said:
No single stat in isolation means you wina game, other than the scoreboard.

Contested Ball doesn't.
Marks Inside 50.
Scoring Shots.
Inside 50s.
Clearances.
Intercepts.

None of them means you win.

But that doesn't mean they're not very important and influential stats when it comes to determining the result.
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Ok so this just shows you don't understand the concept of correlation, as I expected.
 
Blueyboy74 said:
I think what Bulldog Joe is conveniently overlooking that you can still win in spite of the umpiring (a la Richmond's 3 premierships) just as you can win because of the umpiring (a la Western Bulldogs in 2016). From a neutral point of view, I thought the umpiring was a major factor in determining both their 6 point preliminary final win against the Giants (free kicks 23-13) and their 18 point grand final victory against the Swans (free kicks 20-8).
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I'm a 2016 grand final expert, unlike you. You probably only watched it once and not for 7 years, that's why you think the margin was 18 points. I've watched it 20+ times in full, and the 20+ minute long highlights about 40 times. We won because we were the better side. No way the Swans deserved to win more than us.
 
_Mike_ said:
The point is, there's a number of bigfooty posters who live in some alternate world thinking we're still the most favoured team this season. There's been a number of areas that we hadnt been penalised for in the past however dont for one second think that only the Dogs get off lightly. With the change of umpiring to a 4 man system this year there's a lot of things the Dogs are now being hit for frees against that they would have got away with in the last few years.

But if you think the Dogs are the only team that throws, ducks etc, you aint living in reality. If you want to pull stats since 2016 to suit the conspiracy theory, go back to 2003 to see who the most heavily favored team has been in that time.

View attachment 1717538

www.zerohanger.com

Free kick differential over the past 15 years

Free kick West Coast.
www.zerohanger.com www.zerohanger.com

Even with the differential from 2019-2023 no team would overtake the Eagles, who had a +71 differential in their 2006 flag year and +85 for 2015. But lets not let the facts get in the way of a good story
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If
_Mike_ said:
The point is, there's a number of bigfooty posters who live in some alternate world thinking we're still the most favoured team this season. There's been a number of areas that we hadnt been penalised for in the past however dont for one second think that only the Dogs get off lightly. With the change of umpiring to a 4 man system this year there's a lot of things the Dogs are now being hit for frees against that they would have got away with in the last few years.

But if you think the Dogs are the only team that throws, ducks etc, you aint living in reality. If you want to pull stats since 2016 to suit the conspiracy theory, go back to 2003 to see who the most heavily favored team has been in that time.

View attachment 1717538

www.zerohanger.com

Free kick differential over the past 15 years

Free kick West Coast.
www.zerohanger.com www.zerohanger.com

Even with the differential from 2019-2023 no team would overtake the Eagles, who had a +71 differential in their 2006 flag year and +85 for 2015. But lets not let the facts get in the way of a good story
Click to expand...
If and when an Eagles supporter starts posting free kick statistics then I might do that but in this particular instance I was responding to a post from a Bulldogs supporter and referencing what has occurred since 2016 so your facts really have little to do with my story.
 

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Substance said:
I'm a 2016 grand final expert, unlike you. You probably only watched it once and not for 7 years, that's why you think the margin was 18 points. I've watched it 20+ times in full, and the 20+ minute long highlights about 40 times. We won because we were the better side. No way the Swans deserved to win more than us.
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Cool and your entitled to that opinion just like I'm entitled to mine but I think you will find there would be a number of neutral supporters who would agree that the umpires had an influence on the result and quite likely a number who would argue they didn't.

PS. Every time I've watched a Richmond highlights tape we have been the better side in that too. In fact, we usually hold the opposition scoreless ...
 
Sentinel said:
Meanwhile your club has won 3 flags and the Bulldogs have won 1, so what's the point? Clearly 'winning' the free kick count has little effect, as evident by the correlation (or rather lack thereof) of game results and free kick results, which goes beyond just the Bulldogs and Richmond.

Why would other clubs mimick the Bulldogs tendency towards giving away less free kicks than the opposition if it means little to nothing towards winning a game of football?
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The umpires can only do so much
 
Blueyboy74 said:
Perhaps that plays some part in the overall discrepancy but it doesn't address the imbalance with the number of free kicks that we don't receive compared with other teams. I also seriously doubt that deliberately employing tactics to slow the game down is something Richmond has done ... if anything, we prefer a fast game and it's the opposition trying to slow it down.

You can rest assured that I wouldn't dream of swapping the 3 flags for some 'wins' in the FK differential either but borrowing your suggestion, try a different logic to this: the very fact that most Tiger supporters are totally fed up with the treatment we have received for quite a number of years now is a pretty good indication, given that it has coincided with a most successful period, that what we are saying has fair amount of substance to it rather than making excuses or emanating from sour grapes.
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I agree that Richmond want fast movement when they control the footy, but they look to disadvantage the opposition movement.

One tactic I have noticed (Geelong also use this a lot) is to infringe the player about to kick with a push to disrupt the kick. While is isn't always paid as a free, when it is the ump regular brings it back to the kicker allowing the defence to set up.

There are lots of nuances about how teams play that impact the free kick stats and then there is the crowd factor that West Coast have had an enormous advantage with forever.
 
Bulldog Joe said:
I agree that Richmond want fast movement when they control the footy, but they look to disadvantage the opposition movement.

One tactic I have noticed (Geelong also use this a lot) is to infringe the player about to kick with a push to disrupt the kick. While is isn't always paid as a free, when it is the ump regular brings it back to the kicker allowing the defence to set up.

There are lots of nuances about how teams play that impact the free kick stats and then there is the crowd factor that West Coast have had an enormous advantage with forever.
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If we accept for the moment that what you're saying is true (and personally I haven't noticed this as something we generally do any more or less than other clubs), that is still irrelevant to how many free kicks we actually receive.

Using just the last 5 rounds as an example ... we have received 10, 14, 10, 7, 12 free kicks at an average of 10.6 per game. Keep in mind that the AFL average is 18.3 per team. That would be far more digestible if they were at least consistent and our opponent's had to really earn them too but we're -37 for that period at -7.4 per game.

Take the 2021 home & away season for example. Richmond's five lowest games were 11, 12, 12, 12, 13 compared to the Dogs 11, 13, 14, 15, 16. There were 7 other matches where we received either 15 or 16 free kicks - your 4th & 5th lowest. What also stood out was how the Bulldogs received 20+ free kicks in 13 games compared to just 5 games for Richmond. What is it that you blokes are doing that we're not? It's certainly not infringing upon a player about to kick the ball as that simply influences how many free kicks you concede and has nothing to do with how many you actually receive.

It's not as though we just happened to be involved in matches where the umpires had 'swallowed the whistle' as they say or that the Dogs by chance were involved in a lot of 'over-officiated' games. In our five matches we were -45 in the free kick differential at -9.0 per game whereas the Doggies were only -14 at -2.8 per game.

I'm not saying this is just a Bulldogs thing either as I'm pretty certain if I were to compare the number of free kicks we receive to any other club that there wouldn't be one we compare favorably with.
 
Blueyboy74 said:
If we accept for the moment that what you're saying is true (and personally I haven't noticed this as something we generally do any more or less than other clubs), that is still irrelevant to how many free kicks we actually receive.

Using just the last 5 rounds as an example ... we have received 10, 14, 10, 7, 12 free kicks at an average of 10.6 per game. Keep in mind that the AFL average is 18.3 per team. That would be far more digestible if they were at least consistent and our opponent's had to really earn them too but we're -37 for that period at -7.4 per game.

Take the 2021 home & away season for example. Richmond's five lowest games were 11, 12, 12, 12, 13 compared to the Dogs 11, 13, 14, 15, 16. There were 7 other matches where we received either 15 or 16 free kicks - your 4th & 5th lowest. What also stood out was how the Bulldogs received 20+ free kicks in 13 games compared to just 5 games for Richmond. What is it that you blokes are doing that we're not? It's certainly not infringing upon a player about to kick the ball as that simply influences how many free kicks you concede and has nothing to do with how many you actually receive.

It's not as though we just happened to be involved in matches where the umpires had 'swallowed the whistle' as they say or that the Dogs by chance were involved in a lot of 'over-officiated' games. In our five matches we were -45 in the free kick differential at -9.0 per game whereas the Doggies were only -14 at -2.8 per game.

I'm not saying this is just a Bulldogs thing either as I'm pretty certain if I were to compare the number of free kicks we receive to any other club that there wouldn't be one we compare favorably with.
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I believe it has a lot to do with game style.

Beveridge loves a stoppage game and expects the team to get first hands at those stoppages. It means the umps need to make decisions in congestion.

Personally I detest the interpretation that allows players to just hang on to the ball to get a stoppage and would absolutely prefer many more holding the ball frees paid to eliminate a lot of those stoppages.
 
I am disappointed to see no posts this week.
The Bulldogs got a win over Freo (15-14 Free Kicks) clearly showing winning the Free Kick Count was an important element to the victory.

We have had a lot of Sydney and Melbourne sympathisers in this thread.

Sydney were again seriously disadvantaged (9 -17) but they did manage to draw despite blowing numerous chances.

Clearly that disadvantage in the umpiring caused them to miss all those chances at goal.

Melbourne had a strong result (25 -10) in free kicks which, by the premise of this thread, obviously means a big win.
However the scoreboard had them behind.

Is that really possible?

Could there be something else happening to render Free Kick differential as being insignificant?
 
Bulldog Joe said:
I am disappointed to see no posts this week.
The Bulldogs got a win over Freo (15-14 Free Kicks) clearly showing winning the Free Kick Count was an important element to the victory.

We have had a lot of Sydney and Melbourne sympathisers in this thread.

Sydney were again seriously disadvantaged (9 -17) but they did manage to draw despite blowing numerous chances.

Clearly that disadvantage in the umpiring caused them to miss all those chances at goal.

Melbourne had a strong result (25 -10) in free kicks which, by the premise of this thread, obviously means a big win.
However the scoreboard had them behind.

Is that really possible?

Could there be something else happening to render Free Kick differential as being insignificant?
Click to expand...
I’m not sure if you’re being deliberately provocative and feel the need to use contemporary data as ‘evidence’ for a time where it has no relevance - perhaps because your conscience is still troubled, or that you really are just that obtuse.

But let’s ignore for a moment the sarcastic manner in which you emphasise the importance of free kicks and assume they do affect the score and each disparity is worth 6pts and furthermore in the games analysed they should have been even but weren’t. On that basis in the WB v Frem game the margin should have been 23pts and not 29pts but the result remains unchanged. Well done, that’s conclusive proof … you were right :clapping:. Oh wait, I just applied the same test to the Sydney v Geelong came and this tells me the Swans should have won by 8 goals and not had to settle for a draw :think:.

Conclusion: Umpires always influence the result is incorrect. Umpires can influence the result is correct. Understand?

In addition, and continuing with the assumption the Swans would have won if the umpires had adjudicated the match perfectly (and I didn't even see the game so am not suggesting this was the case but am rather using it to make a point), do you really think they would have no issue with this just because they kicked poorly at goal … as though the two factors are even somehow related? It’s like being being given out lbw hit to a ball that you should have sent into the crowd despite replays showing the ball was going a foot down leg only to be told by the umpire that ‘’you should have hit the ball instead, therefore you're lbw … :rolleyes:''
 
Blueyboy74 said:
I’m not sure if you’re being deliberately provocative and feel the need to use contemporary data as ‘evidence’ for a time where it has no relevance - perhaps because your conscience is still troubled, or that you really are just that obtuse.

But let’s ignore for a moment the sarcastic manner in which you emphasise the importance of free kicks and assume they do affect the score and each disparity is worth 6pts and furthermore in the games analysed they should have been even but weren’t. On that basis in the WB v Frem game the margin should have been 23pts and not 29pts but the result remains unchanged. Well done, that’s conclusive proof … you were right :clapping:. Oh wait, I just applied the same test to the Sydney v Geelong came and this tells me the Swans should have won by 8 goals and not had to settle for a draw :think:.

Conclusion: Umpires always influence the result is incorrect. Umpires can influence the result is correct. Understand?

In addition, and continuing with the assumption the Swans would have won if the umpires had adjudicated the match perfectly (and I didn't even see the game so am not suggesting this was the case but am rather using it to make a point), do you really think they would have no issue with this just because they kicked poorly at goal … as though the two factors are even somehow related? It’s like being being given out lbw hit to a ball that you should have sent into the crowd despite replays showing the ball was going a foot down leg only to be told by the umpire that ‘’you should have hit the ball instead, therefore you're lbw … :rolleyes:''
Click to expand...
Simple fact that is regularly lost throughout this thread is that there is no signficant correlation between free kick differential and score differential. People love to make a big deal of 'winning' the free kick count but it's simply not supported by any data. If it did have an affect you'd see a nice trend upwards from left to right across the chart below, rather than a big blob.

20220709_125945-png.1442402


That's also not to say individual umpiring decisions can't have an affect on a win/loss where the game is close, in extreme circumstances.
 
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Blueyboy74 said:
I’m not sure if you’re being deliberately provocative and feel the need to use contemporary data as ‘evidence’ for a time where it has no relevance - perhaps because your conscience is still troubled, or that you really are just that obtuse.

But let’s ignore for a moment the sarcastic manner in which you emphasise the importance of free kicks and assume they do affect the score and each disparity is worth 6pts and furthermore in the games analysed they should have been even but weren’t. On that basis in the WB v Frem game the margin should have been 23pts and not 29pts but the result remains unchanged. Well done, that’s conclusive proof … you were right :clapping:. Oh wait, I just applied the same test to the Sydney v Geelong came and this tells me the Swans should have won by 8 goals and not had to settle for a draw :think:.

Conclusion: Umpires always influence the result is incorrect. Umpires can influence the result is correct. Understand?

In addition, and continuing with the assumption the Swans would have won if the umpires had adjudicated the match perfectly (and I didn't even see the game so am not suggesting this was the case but am rather using it to make a point), do you really think they would have no issue with this just because they kicked poorly at goal … as though the two factors are even somehow related? It’s like being being given out lbw hit to a ball that you should have sent into the crowd despite replays showing the ball was going a foot down leg only to be told by the umpire that ‘’you should have hit the ball instead, therefore you're lbw … :rolleyes:''
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My point was that so many contributors to the thread seem to demand that free kicks are evenly balanced and they always seem to bump this if the Bulldogs have a win and a free kick differential they consider significant.

Chiel amongst those have been a few Sydney and Melbourne supporters.

I have always contended that it is more to do with game style than umpire bias. Hence the same teams regularly appear in the plus differentials and conversely teams like Richmond, Sydney and GWS regularly appear as negative differential.

I cited the games involving Sydney and Melbourne this week as they had significant differential. They also provide strong evidence AGAIN that there is no real correlation between free kick count and match results.

Just posting for the conspiracy theorists to ponder:cool:
 
Sentinel said:
Simple fact that is regularly lost throughout this thread is that there is no signficant correlation between free kick differential and score differential. People love to make a big deal of 'winning' the free kick count but it's simply not supported by any data. If it did have an affect you'd see a nice trend upwards from left to right across the chart below, rather than a big blob.

20220709_125945-png.1442402


That's also not to say individual umpiring decisions can't have an affect on a win/loss where the game is close, in extreme circumstances.
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That's all well & good and looks impressive but it also lacks nuance as it not only doesn't specify different teams but also doesn't accommodate a host of other mitigating factors. For example, Richmond were a pretty bloody good team over that period so I'm hypothesising that we account for a reasonable number of the dots in the area marked 'X'. The Bulldogs on the other hand were more 'middle of the road' during that period and taking that into account with their free kick differential, I'm surmising they may be responsible for quite a number of those in the more densely circled area. That all said, I can't say they sure and it's just a theory.

I have also attached the FK differential between 2016-2022 (and I acknowledge this also lacks nuance in isolation) and there's a couple of obvious outliers. The chances of having seven consecutive 'winning' or 'losing' seasons, all things being equal, is less than 1%. That's food for thought.

SGPH.JPG

FKD.JPG
 
Blueyboy74 said:
That's all well & good and looks impressive but it also lacks nuance as it not only doesn't specify different teams but also doesn't accommodate a host of other mitigating factors. For example, Richmond were a pretty bloody good team over that period so I'm hypothesising that we account for a reasonable number of the dots in the area marked 'X'. The Bulldogs on the other hand were more 'middle of the road' during that period and taking that into account with their free kick differential, I'm surmising they may be responsible for quite a number of those in the more densely circled area. That all said, I can't say they sure and it's just a theory.

I have also attached the FK differential between 2016-2022 (and I acknowledge this also lacks nuance in isolation) and there's a couple of obvious outliers. The chances of having seven consecutive 'winning' or 'losing' seasons, all things being equal, is less than 1%. That's food for thought.

View attachment 1729354

View attachment 1729353
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Why should it specify different teams? It's more conclusive to be presented competition wide than purely relating to a single team because you better remove other team specific variables which could interfere with the data, and the team is irrelevant anyway. My post is a general conclusion about all clubs, not just about the Bulldogs, and it shows clearly that there is little to no correlation between free kick differential and score differential. Your post is nothing but assumptions and speculation.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I guess your last line "the chances of having seven consecutive 'winning' or 'losing' seasons, all things being equal, is less than 1%" is based on 0.5^7 = 0.008? This assumes that free kicks are entirely random with a 50% chance of each team in a match receiving any free kick. In reality there are many more variables which affect this, so all things are in fact not equal.

You point towards 7 consecutive seasons being nearly impossible but 4 other clubs with 6 of 7 seasons as 'winning' (plus Richmond 'losing' 7) only solidifies the fact that other variables have a huge impact. Which again is not relevant anyway given the lack of correlation to score differential.
 
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How will Friday pan out? Umps have both faves playing. 0 frees or 200?
 

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The Bulldogs and Umpires: Time for a Royal Commission?

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