The Drought-Breaking and Drought-Extending Century

[BF Tiger]

Starting with Sydney breaking a 72 year drought in 2005 we’ve then seen Geelong (2007, 44 years), the Bulldogs (2016, 62 years) and Richmond (2017, 37 years) break notable premiership drought.

It’s also worth noting that a merged Brisbane-Fitzroy broke a 57 year Lions drought in 2001.

That’s a combined 272 years of drought!

If Melbourne win today that will be 6 teams and 329 years of drought washed away since the start of the century.

The flip-side is of course the Saints missing out in 2009 and 2010 and their drought now extending to 55 years. Carlton and Fremantle have not won a flag in 26 years, Adelaide in 24 years, North in 22 years and Essendon in 21 years. For Carlton, Essendon, Fremantle* and Adelaide these are record droughts. St Kilda’s current drought is still 13 years short of their first drought!

 

[Kwality]

Starting with Sydney breaking a 72 year drought in 2005 we’ve then seen Geelong (2007, 44 years), the Bulldogs (2016, 62 years) and Richmond (2017, 37 years) break notable premiership drought.

It’s also worth noting that a merged Brisbane-Fitzroy broke a 57 year Lions drought in 2001.

That’s a combined 272 years of drought!

If Melbourne win today that will be 6 teams and 329 years of drought washed away since the start of the century.

The flip-side is of course the Saints missing out in 2009 and 2010 and their drought now extending to 55 years. Carlton and Fremantle have not won a flag in 26 years, Adelaide in 24 years, North in 22 years and Essendon in 21 years. For Carlton, Essendon, Fremantle* and Adelaide these are record droughts. St Kilda’s current drought is still 13 years short of their first drought!

Freos last flag was in the 1890s.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

St Kilda aren’t in a drought. It took them 69 years to win their first flag. It’s only been 55 years since.

 

[Engimal v3]

Hope you're right, because it's been a while between drinks for North

 

[Kwality]

Hope you're right, because it's been a while between drinks for North

IF you take the average wait between flags theoretically is 17 years, its not much under average.
What is interesting is length of time some clubs have overperformed in the modern era, i.e the national comp.

 

[Engimal v3]

IF you take the average wait between flags theoretically is 17 years, its not much under average.

What is this, the maths channel?

 

[Kwality]

What is this, the maths channel?

Nope its drought not maths.

 

[JimmyMann]

St Kilda aren’t in a drought. It took them 69 years to win their first flag. It’s only been 55 years since.

oh awesome only 14 more years

 

[Freomaniac]

Starting with Sydney breaking a 72 year drought in 2005 we’ve then seen Geelong (2007, 44 years), the Bulldogs (2016, 62 years) and Richmond (2017, 37 years) break notable premiership drought.

It’s also worth noting that a merged Brisbane-Fitzroy broke a 57 year Lions drought in 2001.

That’s a combined 272 years of drought!

If Melbourne win today that will be 6 teams and 329 years of drought washed away since the start of the century.

The flip-side is of course the Saints missing out in 2009 and 2010 and their drought now extending to 55 years. Carlton and Fremantle have not won a flag in 26 years, Adelaide in 24 years, North in 22 years and Essendon in 21 years. For Carlton, Essendon, Fremantle* and Adelaide these are record droughts. St Kilda’s current drought is still 13 years short of their first drought!

scott steiner maths mate lol

 

[emuboy]

Does anyone else still find it hard to believe that 23 years have gone by since Adelaide won the 1998 premiership, this flag now closer in time to 1975 than the present day?

 

[btdg]

Does anyone else still find it hard to believe that 23 years have gone by since Adelaide won the 1998 premiership, this flag now closer in time to 1975 than the present day?

It doesn't feel like Adelaide have that big a drought. Compared to Carlton, North, Essendon - I don't know why, but it feels like they were successful later and in a different era. I know they have made a grand final and a few prelims since, but it just seems weird that they are part of the 95-98-99-00 run of teams winning premierships and then having an extended drought.

I guess you could also include Brisbane (03) and Port (04) as part of a run of teams who rose to the top, then haven't been able to get back, whereas the teams that won after that (05, 06, 07, 08) have been consistently good since, and have partnered with the 'drought-breaker' teams to win almost every premiership since.

There's a hypothesis I think - the AFL with draft/salary cap entered a cyclical era from about 1990 onwards - teams rose, had a 3-5 year run, then dropped, then rose again. All of Carlton/North/Essendon/Adelaide/Brisbane/Port had their battles in the mid-00s and were rising, when expansion and the free agency/increased player movement dropped a double whammy.

Suddenly, the cycle was broken - it became really hard to top up (I remember Carlton in 2010-12 having pick 22, 45 in the draft and whiffing really badlyy on Bootsma, then needing a KPD and only being able to use picks in the 30s). Hawthorn/Geelong/Collingwood/West Coast/Sydney were already good, suddenly drafting on bsically even playing field with the rising teams, which let them stay at the top much longer albeit slightly different paths; Geelong (with Dangerfield/Ablett) were able to extend it even more; West Coast fell quickly (Judd/Cousins drama) but bounced back hard, while Sydney also took ages to fall, but bounced back with academy bonuses.

Meanwhile, the drought teams had been pretty weak all the way along and were sitting kind of mid-tablish (Ninthmond!) during the expansion era. They coped quite badly, really, and dropped first and hardest as the result of the weakened drafts... and so were among the first to rise again; Bulldogs, Melbourne, Richmond, etc. Brisbane also timed their really big drop a little ahead of the rest due to the go home 5... and again have bounced back first.

Only a theory, but it is interesting to me that 6 teams shared 9 straight premierships from 95-04 and none have won since. While 4 teams shared the next 11 premierships, have stayed relevant, before being overtaken by a bunch of teams who hadn't won anything in 35+ years. Odd pattern

 

[craffles]

Up the dons

 

[emuboy]

It doesn't feel like Adelaide have that big a drought. Compared to Carlton, North, Essendon - I don't know why, but it feels like they were successful later and in a different era. I know they have made a grand final and a few prelims since, but it just seems weird that they are part of the 95-98-99-00 run of teams winning premierships and then having an extended drought.

I guess you could also include Brisbane (03) and Port (04) as part of a run of teams who rose to the top, then haven't been able to get back, whereas the teams that won after that (05, 06, 07, 08) have been consistently good since, and have partnered with the 'drought-breaker' teams to win almost every premiership since.

There's a hypothesis I think - the AFL with draft/salary cap entered a cyclical era from about 1990 onwards - teams rose, had a 3-5 year run, then dropped, then rose again. All of Carlton/North/Essendon/Adelaide/Brisbane/Port had their battles in the mid-00s and were rising, when expansion and the free agency/increased player movement dropped a double whammy.

Suddenly, the cycle was broken - it became really hard to top up (I remember Carlton in 2010-12 having pick 22, 45 in the draft and whiffing really badlyy on Bootsma, then needing a KPD and only being able to use picks in the 30s). Hawthorn/Geelong/Collingwood/West Coast/Sydney were already good, suddenly drafting on bsically even playing field with the rising teams, which let them stay at the top much longer albeit slightly different paths; Geelong (with Dangerfield/Ablett) were able to extend it even more; West Coast fell quickly (Judd/Cousins drama) but bounced back hard, while Sydney also took ages to fall, but bounced back with academy bonuses.

Meanwhile, the drought teams had been pretty weak all the way along and were sitting kind of mid-tablish (Ninthmond!) during the expansion era. They coped quite badly, really, and dropped first and hardest as the result of the weakened drafts... and so were among the first to rise again; Bulldogs, Melbourne, Richmond, etc. Brisbane also timed their really big drop a little ahead of the rest due to the go home 5... and again have bounced back first.

Only a theory, but it is interesting to me that 6 teams shared 9 straight premierships from 95-04 and none have won since. While 4 teams shared the next 11 premierships, have stayed relevant, before being overtaken by a bunch of teams who hadn't won anything in 35+ years. Odd pattern

That's a really good and interesting post. I hadn't thought about the teams that won the 1995-2004 premierships hadn't won any more in 17 seasons since then, but that's true and quite remarkable.

It's also noteworthy that a similar thing has happened with some teams in the NRL that were strong in the 1990s and early 2000s, but have not been so successful since then. The Canberra Raiders were a very strong team in the 1990s, but fell into mediocrity after this and have only made one grand final in 2019 since then and no premiership since 1994. There were concerns about just how dominant the Brisbane Broncos could become after premierships in 1992, 1993, 1997 (SL), 1998 and 2000, but as it turned out the worries were unfounded. After winning the 2006 GF, the Broncos have made only one GF since then in 2015 which they lost, and the team has struggled in recent years. With the 1997 (ARL) and 2001 premierships in their trophy cabinets, the Newcastle Knights looked like they would be a superpower in regional NSW. The Knights have done nothing in 20 years since then. The Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs were one of the strongest Sydney teams in the 1990s and early 2000s, but have not won a premiership since 2004. They made GFs in 2012 and 2014 but were thrashed by Melbourne and South Sydney respectively, have not made the finals since 2016 and have been a very poor performer in the last couple of seasons, finishing last in 2021.