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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
The Farce that is the free kick differential number
- Thread starter blaisee
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- #552
I know it wasn't me to whom you posed the question but I can remember one year (either '17 or '19) when just before the finals Dimma brought up the free kick differential and complained bitterly and henceforth despite not adjusting their style of play, Richmond received a dream run in the finals enabling them to block and hold on to their hearts content. So that factor and the fact that the umpires seem to put the whistle away more in finals could shed some light on it.
Nowhere have I suggested deliberate discrimination against Richmond. You're trying to put words in my mouth to distract from the point being raised.
What's your explanation for Richmond being -343 frees in h&a games, and -4 in finals?
He had a crack after a -11 at Geelong in 2017.
2017 +6 (3 games)
2018 -2 (2 games)
2019 +4 (3 games)
2020 -12 (4 games)
Which year was the dream run?
- Banned
- #555
Must've been that year then.
- Grimes handball was a clear throw on replay.
-You really want that free Bolton paid? He initiated the contact and was never going to make the contest.
- The ball touching the ground while Kennedy slides??? This is just clear bias
- Suggest you have another look, Grimes' right hand remains stationary while his left fist follows through with the ball. Pretty hard (i.e. impossible) to do with a "two handed shovel" as it's been described. Cotchin is very good at these.
- No, not really. Was stretching with that one.
- Have a look at the boundary-side vision from behind Ryan. Just after Kennedy grasps the ball, it falls into the space between his arms and slides along the ground with him for a second. As said earlier, DRS in cricket would've resulted in a not out. Can't really expect the umpire to pick it up.
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Do you know what the statistical difference was in the last 20 years after 10 rounds as well? I feel like Richmond’s -67 may be one of the worst on that front as well.
At Round 10 it was the biggest negative differential since 1980, when they were paying 80 frees a game and as many as 130.
I don't want to harp on about this; as stated, Richmond supporters have been pretty good about it for four years because we were winning. Now things are getting tight and it's starting to really bite.
And it's a bit much to expect oppo supporters to empathise after three flags. Probably belongs on the Richmond board.
He is assessing people assessing free kick differentials.
On moto g(6) plus using BigFooty.com mobile app
I'm not trying to distract from anything. I have given a very clear basis to why Richmond have persistently negative free kick differentials.
How about you actual explain the process / nature of this persistent bias against Richmond so I don't have to fill the gaps?
It is almost like you can't clearly articulate it because doing so would make clear how ridiculous it is. You are clearly more broadly an intelligent guy which probably explains why you are avoiding doing so.
I can only think of two broad reasons - deliberate conspiracy or pervasive unconscious bias that is all pervasive in the umpiring community. I think both those claims are ridiculous but perhaps you have a third?
Style of play
I don't know and can only make suggestions.
There are plenty of studies with similar findings to this very well-known one: http://faculty.smu.edu/chrisl/courses/psyc5351/articles/blackuniforms.pdf
Regarding better treatment in finals - I suggest it's due to the best (or at least, in-form) umpires officiating. Less-experienced umpires during the h&a season are falling prey to perceptions/influences unknown.
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kane249
Wibble
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Slowed down a bit for you, ball never hit the ground and Kennedy's forearm was under it clearly
Hate to break it to you but DRS would have paid it
I don't want to debate it any more. Have a look at the normal vision. Can't tell much from time-lapse.
Which is a big problem when you are rejecting without serious consideration the obvious explanation, can't you see?
That's interesting research but doesn't explain why Richmond is the outlier still. I'm sure it also wouldn't offset the no doubt much more studied phenomona of home crowd bias that should benefit Richmond over all
But here is a quick grab from the first page of a google search of "richmond free kick differential due to style of play" (i.e in support of the obvious explanation)
So we have a theory proposed....
Tigers’ free kick whinge is just wrong; is the top eight race down to 10? AFL Rd 10 Talking Points
Why moaning Tigers are just wrong; ’misunderstood’ rule still confuses: AFL Talking Pointswww.foxsports.com.au
The common wisdom is that teams who are first to the ball win more free kicks, because they put themselves in positions to be awarded them. The Tigers aren’t the best contested ball team, and in recent years have prioritised winning the ball on turnover and applying manic pressure.
Supported by analysis
Yet it is apparent Richmond’s lack of free kicks is less about the rub of the green than a particular style that has won the Tigers 19 games so far this season.
Richmond is also ranked No.18 in clearances despite its brilliant performances, playing a midfield style that often sees them losing the clearance but then aggressively tackling the ball carrier to ensure the ball isn’t released into space.
They have given away 58 free kicks for a high tackle when attempting a tackle — the most of any team.
NoCookies | The Australian
www.theaustralian.com.au
attested publicly by one of your players
“That’s the way we play, we go in hard and give a few high tackles away.
“It’s the way we’ve played over the past few years and it’ll probably continue that way.”
"That's the way we play": Tiger tyro fine with free kick differential
Liam Baker says the Tigers' ferocious tackling contributes to their bad luck with umpires.www.sen.com.au
and your coach....
kane249
Wibble
- Oct 27, 2006
- 52,860
- 71,056
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Other Teams
- Sth Freo, Liverpool, Chicago Bulls
In normal time people were saying it was anything from a 4M-10M kick to Kennedy as well.
So after reviewing the vision, Fox Footy determined it went at least 14.5M and that Kennedy clearly got his hands under it.
So sounds like the umpires got it right on both counts and you are advocating it was wrong because it didn't look right to you in real time.
Just accept it and move on.
At least you've made an effort. Nobody's disputing obvious frees. "Too high" is generally an easy one.
Doesn't explain why Richmond is last in frees for since 2017.
"Front-on contact" is a good one. Easy to judge but often overlooked to Richmond players for some reason.
Of course it can
1) The flipside of disproportionately allowing opponents to take first possession at stoppages means Richmond has less opportunity to get free kicks where they are paid at the highest frequency
2) Richmond are the only team that don't play Richmond!
Or you are just imagining Richmond get treated differently to other teams for the same infringement?
Hilarious thread.
The common denominator between Richmond having a bad free differential is - drum roll - Richmond.
What's changed about their playstyle since 2016, where they went from perennial basket case to winning 3 flags in 4 years?
You tin foil hats will find your answer there.
Imagine winning 3 of 4 flags and believing there's some AFL conspiracy/bias to stop you...
The common denominator between Richmond having a bad free differential is - drum roll - Richmond.
What's changed about their playstyle since 2016, where they went from perennial basket case to winning 3 flags in 4 years?
You tin foil hats will find your answer there.
Imagine winning 3 of 4 flags and believing there's some AFL conspiracy/bias to stop you...
This analysis also helps to explain the difference between regular season and finals as Richmond ramp up their effort to win inside footy and have traditionally won the clearances in their finals campaigns.
Interesting if that's true
Lol that useless trope won’t cut it on our Salt Mine thread NP.
Is that what this is? It sure is a large mine
Imagine winning 3 premierships in 4 years and still producing more salt than Chile?
Yet 2018 which produced the biggest free kick differential, we won most of our frees in the midfield.
None of you have countenanced the possibility that you are thoroughly sick of Richmond and as a result, more than prepared to look the other way when we get a raw deal. Understandable. End of discussion.
