Politics The Hangar Politics Thread

[TheGrizz]

This is basically the same result as 4 years ago if current counts hold. Maybe the coalition gain an extra seat. But not the convincing move in by then everyone expected

By the time I went to bed they had lost/were losing 3 or 4 seats to independents in Metro areas, which was a bit damning.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

When are we going to see the day when rubbish political adds are put out to pasture.

When politicians legislate away their exemption from truth-in-advertising laws.

(I'm not optimistic)

 

[eth-dog]

By the time I went to bed they had lost/were losing 3 or 4 seats to independents in Metro areas, which was a bit damning.

Mornington and Hawthorne are neck and neck between the Liberals and Indipendents, but the latter was held by Labor.

Given how unpopular Dan Andrews is, what does this say about Matthew Guy?

Also the Nationals seem to have done well this election.

 

[DERO]

Mornington and Hawthorne are neck and neck between the Liberals and Indipendents, but the latter was held by Labor.

Given how unpopular Dan Andrews is, what does this say about Matthew Guy?

Also the Nationals seem to have done well this election.

 

[ant555]

Mornington and Hawthorne are neck and neck between the Liberals and Indipendents, but the latter was held by Labor.

Given how unpopular Dan Andrews is, what does this say about Matthew Guy?

Also the Nationals seem to have done well this election.

I think It is more a Liberal Party thing.
We keep hearing from the likes of Peta Credlin that it is because they have gone away from their base support but the simple fact is they bled seats to the Teal independents in the federal election due to being slow to recognize climate change is an issue for the majority of voters and this issue hurts them at Victorian level as well as they can not compete with the Greens preferences always going to Labor because of the LP historically being anti climate change.
Their messaging and adds are terrible as well. Although most of it was simply a lie the "cuts Guy " adds got through. 90% of people do not want to research what is in the adds.
Matthew Guy was old news . No one really knew him before and most still do not know him.
The Nats have done well because they have worked hard in their own electorates and focused on the local issues and won back a few seats from independents that could not really get enough done.
As soon as the Liberals realize it is not longer 1960 and get on board with the fact that having sensible options in regards to climate change rather than dragging their feet they will see some of the vote coming back.

Despite Andrews recording a good win their vote has to be a concern as well. They have 37% of the vote which is low as well. LNP has 35%.
Labor has also lost ground in the LC looking like losing 3 spots. Libs have picked up 1, Nats have picked up 2 and the Greens picking up 3 . Legalize Canibus party looks like getting two seats .
The margins are not as big as they seem.

 

[Old Campaigner]

I think It is more a Liberal Party thing.
We keep hearing from the likes of Peta Credlin that it is because they have gone away from their base support but the simple fact is they bled seats to the Teal independents in the federal election due to being slow to recognize climate change is an issue for the majority of voters and this issue hurts them at Victorian level as well as they can not compete with the Greens preferences always going to Labor because of the LP historically being anti climate change.
Their messaging and adds are terrible as well. Although most of it was simply a lie the "cuts Guy " adds got through. 90% of people do not want to research what is in the adds.
Matthew Guy was old news . No one really knew him before and most still do not know him.
The Nats have done well because they have worked hard in their own electorates and focused on the local issues and won back a few seats from independents that could not really get enough done.
As soon as the Liberals realize it is not longer 1960 and get on board with the fact that having sensible options in regards to climate change rather than dragging their feet they will see some of the vote coming back.

Despite Andrews recording a good win their vote has to be a concern as well. They have 37% of the vote which is low as well. LNP has 35%.
Labor has also lost ground in the LC looking like losing 3 spots. Libs have picked up 1, Nats have picked up 2 and the Greens picking up 3 . Legalize Canibus party looks like getting two seats .
The margins are not as big as they seem.

The former LNP strategist they had on the ABC election coverage pointed out that Andrews isn't exactly popular, and thinks the outcome is more of an indictment on the LNP than a show of support for Andrews. That's been three elections now where the LNP have campaigned a fair bit on right wing culture war stuff and they've got their arses handed each time. Maybe they'll learn next time that while that shit might be a vote winner in regional Queensland swing states and is red meat for the hard right wing of the Vic Libs it's costing them votes in the suburbs.

It should be fun with the upper house cross bench containing some pretty random parties likely to hold the balance of power. I wonder if we'll be the first state to legalise weed.

 

[sameolds33]

yeh hes not my cup of tea - acts like he's working in society's best interests to save the world - nah he's just another money guy

In August 2019 I went to a talk in the Adelaide Town Hall by the doctor who organised the rescue of the Thai boys soccer team. The disdain he had for Musk was extraordinary. Apparently, an egotistical time waster and self promoter when there was no time to waste and other people were selflessly putting their lives at risk. The submarine option was assessed by experts as a test run with little chance of achieving success and a huge prospect of calamity.

 

[faible]

In August 2019 I went to a talk in the Adelaide Town Hall by the doctor who organised the rescue of the Thai boys soccer team. The disdain he had for Musk was extraordinary. Apparently, an egotistical time waster and self promoter when there was no time to waste and other people were selflessly putting their lives at risk. The submarine option was assessed by experts as a test run with little chance of achieving success and a huge prospect of calamity.

Watching the documentary there's simply no way Musk's idea would have worked.

The divers were having to take the oxygen tanks off their backs and take them through behind them because the space wasn't wide enough to fit through the tiny widths and twists and turns. So no way known was the submarine idea going to happen.

Then he went off and called the bloke a pedo once he realised he wasn't getting any glory himself.

 

[sameolds33]

Watching the documentary there's simply no way Musk's idea would have worked.

The divers were having to take the oxygen tanks off their backs and take them through behind them because the space wasn't wide enough to fit through the tiny widths and twists and turns. So no way known was the submarine idea going to happen.

Then he went off and called the bloke a pedo once he realised he wasn't getting any glory himself.

Yep, they tested it in a swimming pool and even without the twists and turns of the narrow caves it was a non-starter.

I see he's in the news again today. Elon Musk 'not above the law' says attorney, as women fired from Twitter file discrimination lawsuit

 

[eth-dog]

So Labor end up with 56 seats. I know there was a statewide swing away from them but that's baffling after the last 4 years, they shouldn't have gained more seats.

 

[faible]

So Labor end up with 56 seats. I know there was a statewide swing away from them but that's baffling after the last 4 years, they shouldn't have gained more seats.

I don’t know if you’ve seen what the state and federal liberal party has been up to the last 3 years, but that would explain it.

 

[eth-dog]

I don’t know if you’ve seen what the state and federal liberal party has been up to the last 3 years, but that would explain it.

I have. But with all the lockdowns, the hotel quarantine screw ups and everything the coalition should have been able to at least eat into the difference somewhat.

 

[Jade]

I have. But with all the lockdowns, the hotel quarantine screw ups and everything the coalition should have been able to at least eat into the difference somewhat.

It’s almost like people can see that the Andrews government has been an overwhelmingly positive government.

 

[TheGrizz]

It’s almost like people can see that the Andrews government has been an overwhelmingly positive government.

It really isn't. The results of the election are really just more of an indictment on the LNP than anything.

The primary votes won was not too far apart with Labor 37% (actually down -5.8% from the last election) to 34 LNP (-0.8%).
The explanation for the swing in seats is the preferences of smaller parties (who had a major uptick overall) which swung further away from the LNP.

Essentially there was a significant group of people who didn't want to vote for Andrew that couldnt bring themselves to vote for LNP either.

 

[Jade]

It really isn't. The results of the election are really just more of an indictment on the LNP than anything.

The primary votes won was not too far apart with Labor 37% (actually down -5.8% from the last election) to 34 LNP (-0.8%).
The explanation for the swing in seats is the preferences of smaller parties (who had a major uptick overall) which swung further away from the LNP.

Essentially there was a significant group of people who didn't want to vote for Andrew that couldnt bring themselves to vote for LNP either.

Significant.

 

[boncer34]

Significant.

29% isn't significant?

Labor had a 6% swing against it in the primary. Behind closed doors there's plenty in the party who are aware that's not a great result.

Liberals just, hilariously, sucked more.

 

[faible]

I have. But with all the lockdowns, the hotel quarantine screw ups and everything the coalition should have been able to at least eat into the difference somewhat.

Should, but were incapable of it. The federal LNP were a disaster and the state branch is incompetent.

Their campaign efforts were woeful, their choice of candidate was poor, and they’re leaning way too heavily in to the religious-right to make ground up instead of reassessing where they’re at and what they should actually represent if they want to represent a significant portion of the population.

The teal independents are basically where the LNP should be at IMO.

 

[TheGrizz]

Significant.

Well... simple maths say so.

Labor dropped by 6 percent.
The difference between Labor and LNP was 3% in total, despite LNP losing .8%.

If just half the people who ditched Labor went to the LNP, the primary vote is the same - so yeah that 6 percent is significant. LNP were just so unpopular that they somehow managed to pick up none of the people who dropped off Labor.

It would also indicate that the Andrews government being an 'overwhelming success' isn't as universally thought as you suggest.

 

[Old Campaigner]

Well... simple maths say so.

Labor dropped by 6 percent.
The difference between Labor and LNP was 3% in total, despite LNP losing .8%.

If just half the people who ditched Labor went to the LNP, the primary vote is the same - so yeah that 6 percent is significant. LNP were just so unpopular that they somehow managed to pick up none of the people who dropped off Labor.

It would also indicate that the Andrews government being an 'overwhelming success' isn't as universally thought as you suggest.

The biggest issue for the LNP was that a lot of the voters they managed to pry away from Labor were in very safe Labor seats so it had no effect on the eventual outcome.

Meanwhile the nuffy shit and culture war talking points the LNP were campaigning on turned away a heap of voters from the eastern suburbs.

The upper house results probably give a better indication of the way the state voted than the lower house, and that's looking like an ALP minority with a grab bag of greens, legalise weed, reason party, and other left leaning groups holding the balance of power.

 

[jmoo wan]

I think most people would rather compliment boncer than vote for matthew guy.

 

[boncer34]

I think most people would rather compliment boncer than vote for matthew guy.

Tag me coward

 

[Old Campaigner]

Sad news today. Maybe this'll be the catalyst for right wing politicians to stop courting ****ed in the head extremists and conspiracy theorists.

 

[Lore]

Sad news today. Maybe this'll be the catalyst for right wing politicians to stop courting ****ed in the head extremists and conspiracy theorists.

Not while they think it'll win them votes, unfortunately.

 

[Lore]

"A bloke standing in the cold on a blade of grass in Canberra is not a threat to our national security," Mr Albanese said.

Squatting Russian diplomat refusing to leave terminated Canberra embassy site

A Russian diplomat is squatting on Commonwealth land in Canberra, after Russia was blocked from building an embassy at the site.

www.abc.net.au

might be quote of the week

 

[Howard Moon]

Shameless cretins at it again, think another boat is on the way too