Politics The Hangar Politics Thread

[faible]

US Election just got a lot closer.
Would've been a landslide for Trump if Biden stayed as the nominee.
Harris in my opinion is an underrated candidate, it's easy to forget she made massive inroads in the 2020 primaries before getting behind Biden. Trump will be Trump no matter what, but Harris will seem sensible next to him without the smugness that in part lost 2016 for Clinton. The fragility of Biden's candidacy made Trump's seem much stronger than it actually is. His base is loyal and loud, but it's still the 50% of independent voters that will decide the election.

I'd say it's back to a 50/50 race now. As we know US presidential elections aren't really national in our modern times as much as they are reliant on the results of ~5 swing states.
Pennsylvania is one of the most important of those states in question and I think that it'll probably go to Trump given he was shot there. JD Vance is Trump's pick to appeal to the rustbelt and I'd say it's certain Harris will choose a running mate from the same area.

Josh Shapiro is the Governor of Pennsylvania and is one of the names they keep mentioning as a potential running mate, I assume to try to swing that state.

Josh Shapiro - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[boncer34]

Different situation IMO, back then he was more of an unknown outsider (politics wise) whereas now he's got a fair portion of the country that dislikes him and might just need to be convinced to come out and vote for a better candidate. Biden probably didn't represent that compelling an option, Harris might.

Plus, with all the extra things we know and have seen him do, his personal attacks would come across more distasteful.

And a fair portion that loves him. Highest popular vote by number by any loser. Would've won him any other election.

And we'd seen all the "extra things" by that election too.

 

[Darealrath]

I think that's only in the last 24 hours as it was becoming increasingly talked about? But what Trump says and what Trump then does aren't necessarily in any way the same thing.

Well that's true for any politican but the way he made fun of them makes it pretty disingenuous to link him to them.

 

[justlookingaround]

Josh Shapiro is the Governor of Pennsylvania and is one of the names they keep mentioning as a potential running mate, I assume to try to swing that state.

Josh Shapiro - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Yeah, the first names thrown up so far are all governors of swing states.
The name I'm seeing favoured by (presumably) young people on social media is Senator Mark Kelly, who is an ex-astronaut, so we can be confident it won't be him.

 

[eth-dog]

US Election just got a lot closer.
Would've been a landslide for Trump if Biden stayed as the nominee.
Harris in my opinion is an underrated candidate, it's easy to forget she made massive inroads in the 2020 primaries before getting behind Biden. Trump will be Trump no matter what, but Harris will seem sensible next to him without the smugness that in part lost 2016 for Clinton. The fragility of Biden's candidacy made Trump's seem much stronger than it actually is. His base is loyal and loud, but it's still the 50% of independent voters that will decide the election.

I'd say it's back to a 50/50 race now. As we know US presidential elections aren't really national in our modern times as much as they are reliant on the results of ~5 swing states.
Pennsylvania is one of the most important of those states in question and I think that it'll probably go to Trump given he was shot there. JD Vance is Trump's pick to appeal to the rustbelt and I'd say it's certain Harris will choose a running mate from the same area.

Waltz, Shapiro and Fetterman would be the three they'd look at IMO. I think Waltz should be the one.

 

[boncer34]

Thing about Trump is, and I've said it a thousand times before, is he's not the disease. Trump is a symptom.

He's not some lonely right wing whack job standing out on his own, his views are echoed by millions of Americans and as unbelievable as that may appear to the rest of us it's a simple fact.

People point to his stacking of the supreme court, well guess what, Romney said he wanted to do the same thing in 2012. It's not a pure Trump thing, it's a widespread view of many Americans, I mean this is the country that sees children gunned down regularly and turn a blind eye.

To beat Trump you have to be an exceptional politician, Joe Biden for all his faults or successes at the end of the day has always been an exceptional politician, it's why him and Obama never really got touched, they were 2 exceptional politicians.

Hilary was a very good politician, and she came up short. Is Kamala in Biden's league? I dont think so, I think she's more Hilary's. Which is why I think she'll come up short and tbh short of jet packing Michelle Obama in and running it as a faux 3 Barrack term, I think anyone from the Democrats will come up short.

 

[boncer34]

Waltz, Shapiro and Fetterman would be the three they'd look at IMO. I think Waltz should be the one.

Your mate Bernie would be my pick. Gonna need a wildcard from somewhere

 

[faible]

And a fair portion that loves him. Highest popular vote by number by any loser. Would've won him any other election.

And we'd seen all the "extra things" by that election too.

I agree, but that was still only ~ 25% of the population, there was something like ~ 45% of the population that didn't vote at all. I'm not sure there'll be more Trump voters than there were in 2020. The whole Jan 6th thing, the criminal trial(s) and convictions, if you were part of the population who didn't vote in 2020, I'm not sure you'd have jumped onboard the Trump bandwagon since them, but I could see Harris appealing to a different cohort of voters to Biden.

 

[mcgrath_truther]

Your mate Bernie would be my pick. Gonna need a wildcard from somewhere

bernie won’t get anywhere with the older generation, he preaches moderate social reforms & thats essentially socialism to the average american

 

[boncer34]

I agree, but that was still only ~ 25% of the population, there was something like ~ 45% of the population that didn't vote at all. I'm not sure there'll be more Trump voters than there were in 2020. The whole Jan 6th thing, the criminal trial(s) and convictions, if you were part of the population who didn't vote in 2020, I'm not sure you'd have jumped onboard the Trump bandwagon since them, but I could see Harris appealing to a different cohort of voters to Biden.

Harris won't come within 5m of Bidens vote count is my prediction.

 

[eth-dog]

Your mate Bernie would be my pick. Gonna need a wildcard from somewhere

I feel that they won't get the swing voters if they go with Bernie. Both are very left wing. A moderate Governer from a rust belt state with 20 years of military experience and 17 years in both the house and Governer's chair is nothing to sneeze at.

 

[faible]

Your mate Bernie would be my pick. Gonna need a wildcard from somewhere

Whilst I think Bernie would be good for the US, I think his time has been and gone. His policies are probably what the country needs though.

 

[boncer34]

I feel that they won't get the swing voters if they go with Bernie. Both are very left wing. A moderate Governer from a rust belt state with 20 years of military experience and 17 years in both the house and Governer's chair is nothing to sneeze at.

Gotta swing for the fences. Playing it safe won't work.

 

[faible]

Harris won't come within 5m of Bidens vote count is my prediction.

It's a hard one to predict, in 2016 there was a heap of 'hidden' Trump voters they'd totally failed to account for, though he still lost the popular vote.

Non-compulsory voting plus electoral college and no AEC equivalent really is a shitty voting system.

 

[boncer34]

It's a hard one to predict, in 2016 there was a heap of 'hidden' Trump voters they'd totally failed to account for, though he still lost the popular vote.

Non-compulsory voting plus electoral college and no AEC equivalent really is a shitty voting system.

Compulsory voting aside it's not that much different. Howard was PM despite losing the popular vote.

I made a killing on Trump in 2016. I'm confident in my predictions and will be happy to be wrong.

 

[eth-dog]

Compulsory voting aside it's not that much different. Howard was PM despite losing the popular vote.

I made a killing on Trump in 2016. I'm confident in my predictions and will be happy to be wrong.

It's a bit different. They vote for a person for President and a person to represent their district in Congress. We vote for a person to represent our seat.

Yes, by and large we vote for who we want as PM but yeah.

 

[boncer34]

It's a bit different. They vote for a person for President and a person to represent their district in Congress. We vote for a person to represent our seat.

Yes, by and large we vote for who we want as PM but yeah.

Yes Eth I know all that.

But your last sentence is where I land. Your average Joe voter votes for a party. Many couldn't tell you who their local member was.

 

[Darealrath]

Yes Eth I know all that.

But your last sentence is where I land. Your average Joe voter votes for a party. Many couldn't tell you who their local member was.

Too soon mate.

 

[justlookingaround]

I think Trump is much more electable than he was in 2016 and 2020, he has also masterfully played off his legal troubles as political conspiracies, which is where the American people's collective psyche is automatically drawn to nowadays.
That's not just a right wing phenomena either, take for example immediate claims that Trump's shooting was staged as evidence of liberal conspiracism.

Right now polls point to a decisive Trump victory, but I think they are skewed by the fact that for the last 2.5 years people have felt that Biden wasn't physically fit enough to be president. Get some fresh air with Harris as a coherent alternative and it's not gonna be a walk in the park for Trump anymore.

Also with the whole Project 2025 thing - that is definitely the direction the Christian Right wants to take America. But that doesn't mean that's literally what will happen.
The thing about Western Democracy is, when you elect a political figure, be it a member of a party that forms government, or a President - you are basically electing a mascot for policy made up by think-tanks which are paid for by special interests. Look up the Institute of Public Affairs if you think we're immune to it in Australia. Trump is incredibly useful for these right wingers because he is a really, really effective mascot for conservatives. They have scapegoated LGBT + illegal immigrants as the need for transformative change and they want to use a second Trump term as the platform for that. However, according to the books I've read, the last Trump administration was incredibly dysfunctional, so who knows if there will be enough stability or anyone who actually stays in their job long enough to make big changes to the country.

 

[Darealrath]

I think Trump is much more electable than he was in 2016 and 2020, he has also masterfully played off his legal troubles as political conspiracies, which is where the American people's collective psyche is automatically drawn to nowadays.
That's not just a right wing phenomena either, take for example immediate claims that Trump's shooting was staged as evidence of liberal conspiracism.

Right now polls point to a decisive Trump victory, but I think they are skewed by the fact that for the last 2.5 years people have felt that Biden wasn't physically fit enough to be president. Get some fresh air with Harris as a coherent alternative and it's not gonna be a walk in the park for Trump anymore.

Also with the whole Project 2025 thing - that is definitely the direction the Christian Right wants to take America. But that doesn't mean that's literally what will happen.
The thing about Western Democracy is, when you elect a political figure, be it a member of a party that forms government, or a President - you are basically electing a mascot for policy made up by think-tanks which are paid for by special interests. Look up the Institute of Public Affairs if you think we're immune to it in Australia. Trump is incredibly useful for these right wingers because he is a really, really effective mascot for conservatives. They have scapegoated LGBT + illegal immigrants as the need for transformative change and they want to use a second Trump term as the platform for that. However, according to the books I've read, the last Trump administration was incredibly dysfunctional, so who knows if there will be enough stability or anyone who actually stays in their job long enough to make big changes to the country.

There's plenty of reasons to dislike Trump and not want him in power but the latter part of your post is why the "threat to democracy" and "fascist" attacks on Trump are so dumb. One, most of them couldn't even define fascism, but mainly they overrate the power of a leader/government. The constitution and institutions are so strong/embedded in a country like America that it's difficult enough to just implement policy changes around the edges.

 

[faible]

the last Trump administration was incredibly dysfunctional, so who knows if there will be enough stability or anyone who actually stays in their job long enough to make big changes to the country.

Trump has already flagged wanting to replace key roles with loyalists, which is kind of where the accusations of anti-democratic fascism are coming into it. There was a bill he tried to pass in his last term that would have cut a heap of long-term government positions and made them political appointments as well. Plus the whole SCOTUS ruling that was obviously a pro-Trump thing, the Jan 6th thing, I'm sure there's others.

Reading about things like Hungary under Orban or even the fall of the Weimar Republic is a useful comparison for where things could go from here if there isn't a suitable number of people left in the administration to stop it, e.g. Mike Pence growing a conscience at the last second last time around.

I think a lot of wealthy white men like to fund Trump and the GOP because they'll do things that are beneficial for wealthy white men, but a Trump administration with even less competent people left to apply checks and balances leaves the door open for long-term problems.

 

[justlookingaround]

There's plenty of reasons to dislike Trump and not want him in power but the latter part of your post is why the "threat to democracy" and "fascist" attacks on Trump are so dumb. One, most of them couldn't even define fascism, but mainly they overrate the power of a leader/government. The constitution and institutions are so strong/embedded in a country like America that it's difficult enough to just implement policy changes around the edges.

Personally I feel the basis that has been used to level accusations of fascism is dated. It is holding 2024 politics to 1924 norms. Fascism as a political movement is antiquated, the fascist governments of Italy and Germany were defeated, but in truth elements of its ideology have been absorbed and utilised by all number of governments in the decades since.

 

[justlookingaround]

Trump has already flagged wanting to replace key roles with loyalists, which is kind of where the accusations of anti-democratic fascism are coming into it. There was a bill he tried to pass in his last term that would have cut a heap of long-term government positions and made them political appointments as well. Plus the whole SCOTUS ruling that was obviously a pro-Trump thing, the Jan 6th thing, I'm sure there's others.

Reading about things like Hungary under Orban or even the fall of the Weimar Republic is a useful comparison for where things could go from here if there isn't a suitable number of people left in the administration to stop it, e.g. Mike Pence growing a conscience at the last second last time around.

I think a lot of wealthy white men like to fund Trump and the GOP because they'll do things that are beneficial for wealthy white men, but a Trump administration with even less competent people left to apply checks and balances leaves the door open for long-term problems.

Yes, I agree, I'm not trying to make out like I think Project25 is bs or anything, more just pointing out that it's the work of a think-tank rather than official policy.
I think it's a fool's errand trying to predict what Trump will do domestically. Even knowing his worst impulses it was still shocking when the attack on the capital happened and when he literally tried to stop the transfer of power.

 

[Old Campaigner]

The constitution and institutions are so strong/embedded in a country like America that it's difficult enough to just implement policy changes around the edges.

I don't think that is quite the case, the supreme court and a number of lower courts just make shit up at this point.

 

[Lore]

I don't think it's the "undecideds" that will decide it... Since America doesn't have mandatory voting, and has pockets of decided voters who are actively discouraged/prevented from voting through various means, the turnout of "decideds" matters more than what those who are undecided, particularly in swing states.