The importance of Witts and Grundy

[Jelly Bean]

Still need a Good Ruckman to take you to the Premiership

Premiership teams in 2012, 2013, and last year didn't have great ruckmen. Of the runners up, only Freo had a great ruckman.

 

[TradeDraft]

Premiership teams in 2012, 2013, and last year didn't have great ruckmen. Of the runners up, only Freo had a great ruckman.

I never said you had to have a Great Ruckman I said a Good Ruckman. Mumford could be argued as best Ruck in the AFL

 

[mike123]

Premiership teams in 2012, 2013, and last year didn't have great ruckmen. Of the runners up, only Freo had a great ruckman.

2012 Shane Mumford and Mike Pyke - A pretty good combination both capable ruckman and forwards.

2013 Max Bailey and David Hale - Hale is one of the best forwards for a ruckman and Bailey who was decent.

2014 Ben McEvoy and David Hale - pretty good combination Ben McEvoy great around the ground contested marker, had and avarage season but is a good player.

 

[cleomenes]

Yep, but for the structure of the team and to keep them in the same side playing senior footy together, we need them to be able to be rested up forward and be a threat

This is absolutely true

 

[DWil6]

2012 Shane Mumford and Mike Pyke - A pretty good combination both capable ruckman and forwards.

2013 Max Bailey and David Hale - Hale is one of the best forwards for a ruckman and Bailey who was decent.

2014 Ben McEvoy and David Hale - pretty good combination Ben McEvoy great around the ground contested marker, had and avarage season but is a good player.

2013 and 14 are underwhelming but serviceable.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Jelly Bean]

I never said you had to have a Great Ruckman I said a Good Ruckman. Mumford could be argued as best Ruck in the AFL

Well you need a good everything to take you to a premiership, but you need other things to be great (e.g. typically parts of the midfield and backline). Which suggests that the ruck is not quite as important as those areas.

 

[Jelly Bean]

2012 Shane Mumford and Mike Pyke - A pretty good combination both capable ruckman and forwards.

2013 Max Bailey and David Hale - Hale is one of the best forwards for a ruckman and Bailey who was decent.

2014 Ben McEvoy and David Hale - pretty good combination Ben McEvoy great around the ground contested marker, had and avarage season but is a good player.

All of these were okay combinations, but hardly the strength of the team.

And your comment about 2014 is interesting - because you are saying it was an example of a year of a good combination, but then admit that McEvoy had a bad year. So it wasn't a good performance in that year by the ruck combination, and they still managed to dominate to the flag. Which is my exact point.

 

[lozza63]

All of these were okay combinations, but hardly the strength of the team.

And your comment about 2014 is interesting - because you are saying it was an example of a year of a good combination, but then admit that McEvoy had a bad year. So it wasn't a good performance in that year by the ruck combination, and they still managed to dominate to the flag. Which is my exact point.

I think Ceglar played a role for the Hawks last year when "Bigboy" was out. He averaged as many hitouts as our 2 guys and kicked 8 goals vs a combined 11 to Grundy and Witts

The difference for the Hawks with Hale esp is that he impacts the scoreboard as Jolly did for us especially in 2010.

 

[PTpie]

So we just hang around for the next 3 years waiting for Witts to develop? So we can be a top 4 team...
What about Grundy he will take 5 years..

TG do you feel that Collingwood should challenge for the premiership every year? I would lose interest if the AFL became like the EPL and only the big 4 were in contention each season. In this age of equalisation with salary caps on TPP and off field spending it will never happen.

It takes time to rejuvenate a team list when people retire, leave or are delisted. We are under going that transition now so as a supporter you can reasonably expect 3 - 5 years of mediocrity. Teams like Geelong and Hawthorn have specifically targeted KPP and ruckmen through FA to fill the holes and guide the young talent because they take so long to develop and are a risky prospect.

No one thought Trent West or Orren Stephenson were crash hot - guess what? A premiership player and one that filled the hole after injuries. Brian Lake, Shaun Burgoyne, Ben McEvoy and now James Frawley will keep the Hawks relevant until Mitchell, Hodge, Lewis, Lake and Burgoyne all retire -which will happen soon. No one has the depth to cover that massive loss of talent and it will all happen within 12 - 24 months leaving them where Collingwood are now with perhaps a slightly more experienced but definitely less talented list.

The Pies have chosen a different path and invested in youth and our experienced guy (Jolly) broke down before we expected him too. Hudson came in and filled the hole for a couple of seasons and now the club have decided that our young lads have developed enough to toss them out of the nest and set them free. Have some faith man, those at the club may actually know a thing or two about footy, people and recognising and developing talent.

 

[Curto]

I planned on having my avatar for 15 years when i selected it 2 years ago. Each season Witts has shown significant improvement, and I expect next season he will become one of the leading ruckman in the comp, peaking in around 3 years to have an impact similar to Sandilands. He will be a gun.

Grundy is exactly the same but different. We need him to be able to do that David Hale role so that both of them play 230 games each for the club. I am most concerned that one will want to leave "for more opportunites in the ruck" at 25-26 at the height of their powers.

Yes it is about development, we will reap the rewards of having these young kids get games under their belt in a controlled manner that will guarantee both become great mates, great players and a formidable combination. Improvement will be more advanced in the AFL than the VFL, short term pain for long term gain.

I trust in our coach, list managers and development guys the same way I trust in Derek Hine. They are great, if not the best. We have got our shit together, now we be patient and hope that success comes quicker than the football "experts" believe. Flag in 2016 is my dream.

 

[PTpie]

While I certainly agree tall players (KPP and Rucks) take longer to develop there are always exceptions to the rule.

Take for example Matthew Lobbe @ Port Adelaide. Underrated, and not even mentioned in this thread yet unbelievably talented. Literally a one ruck team, plays more game time most other ruckmen in a team that runs more than any other. And of course Todd Goldstein @ North Melbourne.

Also it is worth noting that Lobbe and Goldstein debuted @ 21 and 20 and after they turned 23 have been preeminent at their clubs and mostly sole ruck. That tells me after 5 - 7 years in the AFL system we will see our young blokes dominating and should begin to notice serious improvement in Witts this year and Grundy in 2016/17.

So, are we far off? No. Our ruck men will develop and peak at almost (coincidentally?) the same times as our top draft picks in the midfield. That is a complete mind ****. Holy cow that is amazing! What were those tossers like Buckley, Hine, Rendell and co. thinking.

EDIT: Check this out for career comparison between Goldstein and Lobbe.

Another edit - Use that comparison tool and see the tiny difference between Witts and Goldstein at the same age.

 

[Anzacday]

Holy cow that is amazing! What were those tossers like Buckley, Hine, Rendell and co. thinking.

I gather you enjoy fishing?

 

[PTpie]

I gather you enjoy fishing?

I can't help myself - Our young rucks, if they follow similar career progression to Goldstein our Lobbe will actually be better than both of those guys going by statistics.

It just frustrates me that people can't see beyond today. Footy is played for a season but clubs develop for 5 and 10 years cycles. In those cycles only 1 team per year can win ultimate glory. The rest make up the numbers.

I'll finish this later .... wife is getting mad

 

[DNine]

These three links below cover the importance of ruckman. I tried hard to find the HTA Stats, but couldn't find them. I tried to find the percentage average too, but I just found the line in the third link that says that if a Ruckman can give you 10-12 HTA's a game, that is pretty good. I believe Witts and Grundy will be able to do that very soon, and if not only a couple shy of that.

Like the first link suggests, footy fans salivate to the prospects of someone like Sandilands playing for our club, getting heaps of taps, but the hidden value is in the things I am sure Witts and Grundy will bring. Both a very aggressive in their attacks on the man with the ball, or the ball itself. I am much more excited with the prospects of these two, than what I call Dopey Eyed Ruckman, who seem to have no real value, just sometimes a perceived value. Steve McKee dopey eyes, Josh Fraser dopey eyes, big men with a bright look in their eye, seem to do better. Crazy story, but one I have noticed for some time. Grundy is a bright eyed alert ruckman. Witts is sort of half half, like Minson and Mumford they do alright too. Aggressive natured ruckman are the best. Dopey eyed ruckman are often soft. None bigger than the ex Freo Ruckman Matthew Burton, I thought that bloke was going to fall asleep on the field sometime, and todays David Hale who although gets regular game time with Hawthorn, got less average tapouts than our two boys.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...ers-or-overrated-position-20140501-zr2f7.html

http://playerrater.com.au/news/statisticalanalysis

http://mikeorthedon.com/2013/05/20/get-rid-of-ruckmen/

 

[mike123]

I was on the Sandilands is overrated bandwagon until I read this.

"Sandilands' imposing nature and the fact you know he is going to win most taps means the opposition almost always plays an extra man at the stoppage, which means [Freo] can use Michael Johnson as a loose man across half-back," Healy said.

"His hitouts to advantage always have to be seen in light of that - how often do they lose the clearance but Michael Johnson gets the ball at half-back and sends it forward for them to score?"

 

[jackcass]

So you reckon Cox is a chance of playing then?

How about we see him play some footy before we start making too many predictions.

 

[jackcass]

2015 we will break even in the ruck and there will be a few games we dominate. I am more than confident in these boys.

A couple of points that I think is that there was little available that would be a significant upgrade, so what would be the point? Probably best available was Giles, would he improve us? a little. Would he help us win the 2015 or even 2016 premiership? Not at all. Will one or both of Witts and Grundy be better than Giles come 2017, absolutely! So get the games into them now. They will at least break even in 2015 and may well be one of the most feared combinations come 2016.

Also worth noting that often players that have a break out first year struggle in year 2 as clubs work them out etc (hope not for Langdon) so I'm tipping a big year from Grundy.

Agree, thing there will be a significant improvement in both this season.

 

[cleomenes]

Thanks everyone. This has been a most interesting discussion. We don't all agree on everything, but we do see a bright future in the two rucks. I initially posted this as a look at this season's prospects and what the two mean to them. A whole lot more has come to light, and most of it positive. Great to see.

 

[Boris the Contradiction]

So we should Trade Witts and Grundy for Mids and KPP’s?

Well that escalated quickly.

 

[Big Bryza]

A ruckmans best footy comes around the age of 26-30. Look at the best ruckman in the comp over the years. It's got me baffled why we haven't got one on the list.

Cam Wood is the answer to that. I'm more than happy to develop Witts and Grundy. They'll be peaking when our whole list will be in a few years.

 

[Big Bryza]

TG do you feel that Collingwood should challenge for the premiership every year? I would lose interest if the AFL became like the EPL and only the big 4 were in contention each season. In this age of equalisation with salary caps on TPP and off field spending it will never happen.

It takes time to rejuvenate a team list when people retire, leave or are delisted. We are under going that transition now so as a supporter you can reasonably expect 3 - 5 years of mediocrity. Teams like Geelong and Hawthorn have specifically targeted KPP and ruckmen through FA to fill the holes and guide the young talent because they take so long to develop and are a risky prospect.

No one thought Trent West or Orren Stephenson were crash hot - guess what? A premiership player and one that filled the hole after injuries. Brian Lake, Shaun Burgoyne, Ben McEvoy and now James Frawley will keep the Hawks relevant until Mitchell, Hodge, Lewis, Lake and Burgoyne all retire -which will happen soon. No one has the depth to cover that massive loss of talent and it will all happen within 12 - 24 months leaving them where Collingwood are now with perhaps a slightly more experienced but definitely less talented list.

The Pies have chosen a different path and invested in youth and our experienced guy (Jolly) broke down before we expected him too. Hudson came in and filled the hole for a couple of seasons and now the club have decided that our young lads have developed enough to toss them out of the nest and set them free. Have some faith man, those at the club may actually know a thing or two about footy, people and recognising and developing talent.

Brilliantly said.

 

[swiftdog]

These 2 arguably excite me the most as players, they've shown glimpses of becoming genuine A-graders at some point. We can argue about the worth of ruckmen all we like, but I was wondering the last time a team had 2 A-grade ruckmen on their list?

IF they develop to their potential (that they've shown glimpses of) they could both end up being top 5 rucks in the comp. If they can couple that with goalscoring presence then they'll cause numerous headaches for opposition coaches.

 

[Robroy22]

These 2 arguably excite me the most as players, they've shown glimpses of becoming genuine A-graders at some point. We can argue about the worth of ruckmen all we like, but I was wondering the last time a team had 2 A-grade ruckmen on their list?

Cox and Natinui weren't a bad pair? Mumford and Pyke?

 

[Chilli Con Incarnate]

Good thread. I agree wholeheartedly that we need these two players to step up to become a better team. Witts is ready to take another step again in my opinion. I expect big things from Wittsy this year, Grundy I think might need some more time.

The most important aspect of a good ruckman for me is their mobility and marking around the ground. Winning hit outs is nice, but ultimately all the best rucks use their size and advantages around the ground to help their team. When Jolly was at his best it was because he was like a really tall midfielder that could always be relied on to take a grab anywhere on the ground. Having a focal point like that for players to kick to is so important. Cox was also a good example of this; he'd show up at the right time in the forward line, or in defence, and take a momentum changing mark.

If Grundy and Witts can get more consistent at taking grabs then it will benefit out team no end.

 

[PTpie]

Hawthorn do... Well they challenge and win more flags than us.

Seriously? Now you are just trying to provoke me. We've lost more Grand Finals then they have contested.

The facts are there in the statistics that I linked in my previous post. Witts and Grundy, if they continue to improve at their current rate, will be better than T Goldstein and M Lobbe at 25 years of age. Imagine how good they will be at 26 - 30 which are viewed by all and sundry as the prime years for big units. Add that to the multiple top 10 draft picks running through the middle and a few Hine specials floating around the ground and we have a list to be envied.

I need to learn how to multi quote - but I feel the best ruckmen have a knack of reading the play and being where they are most needed at the right time. This is what sets guys like Jolly and Cox apart from Nic Nat, Mumford and Minson.

It is soul crushing to win possession in the centre, flick the pill to someone on the run at half back then bomb it inside 50 only to have Cox intercept it - time and again. Or vice versa to finally have a spare man in defence and double team Josh Kennedy and have Cox saunter in unopposed and mark 25 out right in front. Seriously that guy had bloody ESP or something. Jolly did for us and the Swans - watch a few 2010 games and see where and when he bobs in the games -bloody unreal. Those guys are all class, they never needed to hustle and bustle or smash and bash but they could if necessary. They just were in the right place at the right time, most of the time.