Prediction The lid
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i reckon that analysis is way way off the mark and lacks any substance when you look across the season.
not sure how you are putting massive massive daylight between geelong + melbourne and fremantle who smashed melbourne at the MCG by about 7 goals and knocked us over at skilled stadium. Bit of an odd analysis to say they were never seen as a premiership fancy.
Sydney also beat melbourne at the MCG, so how you put "daylights" is odd again.
not really supported by much logic.
They were within a Jack Henry fingertip - or perhaps a Dion Prestia knockout - of beating us at the G. Don't underestimate them.
- Jun 5, 2007
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Since when is it off?
I've never thought Freo's style would hold up. They had a couple of very nice results early but lack scoring power. Like Carlton, they have been found out.
Sydney and Brisbane as I've said, I have had them on my radar most of the year as genuine top 4 chances and it's still very possible. So they are contenders, but not favourites.
The rest are smokies, which we have every year.
Nothing I've said is at all out of line with the betting odds for the flag or the opinions of neutrals + experts alike. It's fine to have two favourites and two who are a solid chance, then five who could do it but would need a Bulldogs 2016 run.
It doesn't mean upsets can't happen but speculation is merely positing the most likely scenario by probability.
Lid off = Geelong are one of the few who people think could win it. Embrace it, enjoy it, be grateful we are creating a solid platform for a flag assault. There's no point pretending otherwise to avoid disappointment.
Was amazing to play so badly for almost half the game and beat them playing their grand final. Their results against Gold Coast and North were even better. It's a very positive sign Geelong have had scratchy performances while still winning, I agree.
Have you not been reading this thread? Everyone is basically calling us premiers.
Look I know my opinion is different to the majority, but all these recent finals disasters has swayed me away from taking the lid off until 3QT of the grand final, 50 points up. If we make it to that stage.
Last time I was really really confident it was 2005. Disaster.
- Jun 5, 2007
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Uh yeah, I started this thread.
My comment, since when has the lid been off? Not for me.
There are too many things we can't control. But we have a much better style and are much better placed to win it.
We shall see. The lid is on for me
I think you missed the initial point of my post. I am not talking about the markets now or the flag fancies at the moment, I was saying how who has been favorites and discussed as flag favorites or teams right up there has fluctuated quite a bit this season depending on the teams form. At one point freo was getting traction as “flagmantle”, Brisbane was very hot for a while, Melbourne was considered so far ahead of everyone else at one point as well, Sydney is now getting a lot of traction as a flag fancy, Richmond have a fan base who would never write them off against anyone in a final. And geelong was considered just a bottom half of the 8 battler early on before hitting form. There was a time Carlton st kilda were considered better flag fancies than geelong
To summarize, a bunch of teams have shown when in form, they are more than capable of knocking over anyone in the AFL. There is no gap at all.
In terms of your definition of the lid off, we have the same definition reworded mrmeow
It's hope, not expectation, even if most neutrals would have us equal favourites. Our odds are what, $3ish so about a 33% chance? Let's even say 25% chance. That's a lot higher than anyone anticipated and therefore excitement comes. That's simply part of being a fan. Holding that 25% and daring to dream.
I can't believe people are still mistaking the concept of the lid. It doesn't imply the team have sewn it up, it means we are in with a genuine shot. Any top 2 team at this stage is lid off even though at least half of them fail to get the flag.
I get what you're saying but I find it so boring to bring every single football discussion back to "anyone can beat anyone else on any given day" or "whichever team finds form in finals will win it". Of course those facts can't be ignored but the more fun part at this stage is to speculate just who those teams will be.
That's why I don't bother getting into flag contender talk until late in the year. Now is the first reasonable time to start laying down predictions, even though ladder positions can and will change.
My ladder predictor from a few weeks ago had:
Geelong
Melbourne
Brisbane
Sydney
Freo
Collingwood
Carlton
Bulldogs
Richmond taking down Brisbane means they may sneak in for Bulldogs or Carlton, and perhaps Brisbane and Sydney will swap.
It's rare for me to pick a team outside the top 4 as a flag fancy (Bulldogs 16 did it, GWS 19 and Bulldogs 22 got thrashed in the big dance) so my ladder prediction was my logic. A team like Freo or Richmond winning it out of the top 4 could happen, but it falls into unlikely.
They are silly.
If Geelong get a final at the G against an interstate team they'll be equal favourite to make the GF along with Melbourne. Doesn't mean it will happen, but it's hard to say it wouldn't be our best chance in a while (greater chance than pandemic 2020 when we did make it).
Good post.
I do think a lot of the hype about Richmond is off past years form and not this years. I can easily see them going out by 10 goals first week of finals if they do make it. Not that hard to imagine seeing after they lost to north Melbourne
Vdubs
Hall of Famer
But there is. Not all Minds are universally wired like yours.
Each win brings us more expectation, more hope.
A loss would be so much harder to accept after all these wins.
A loss at home is even worse, particularly against a team that already had our measure once, and will likely be a finalist if they beat us.
Saints should be in the argument as much as Tigers.
I look at us play, and I still don't see a premiership team- I see snippets , like that third quater v Dogs. I still see average stuff like q1 and q4 v Dogs.
Yet, no other team seems to be better. Maybe, just maybe, Demons at their very best are THE BEST. IDK.
I have for a long time thought we were a middle of the road team , say 5-10th, but clearly, we are better than that.
But what I have gleaned since 2008 is that:-
the outright favourite team can get done in the GF- we were one loss that year, remarkable, Saints were pretty similar in 09.
a team can come from 7th and win in every state and win a GF against all odds- Doggies were amazing
a team can come from losing the first final, travel to WA, and play 4 finals winning the GF- Hawks were also astounding.
a single player can virtually be the difference in a GF- Dusty Martin- we win that 2020 GF if he dnp!!
So there are no conclusions except that anything can and does happen in finals.
BlakeyNoFlakey
Brownlow Medallist
Anything can happen in finals. There's no guarantee Geelong will even make the GF let alone win it. I'm not calling it the lid, just being realistic. The Cats are in a great position and look ready, but we won't know how it all works out until it happens. Don't get ahead of yourselves. One week at a time.
I actually agree with quite a lot of what you say there. My hope and excitement is in no way complacency. Favourites don't make it, at quite an alarming rate, as any playoffs/finals format lends to.
I'm under no illusions as to how difficult finals can be and that it is a whole new ball game. I'll have reservations at the back of my mind unless we are 100 points up in a grand final.
However, simply stating that I am glad we are right in the hunt and perhaps even one of the chief hunters (for now). If it hurts more after a loss, so be it. This is my hopeful method of supporting. I understand not all like to embrace that but I say we deal with sadness when required, and enjoy any hype before then.
Not calling us Premiers, just enjoying the possibility. That's lid off for me.
It's fun to be in it this time of year.
It's fun to be in it this time of year.
Chinacats
Norm Smith Medallist
- Sep 20, 2014
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Shorter quarters was an advantage to our old mob in 2020. Dees 21 we were nowhere near them? We were 40+ Up in round 23 against them and then…..
And then lost. After losing to them by 4 goals earlier in the season. And then lost by 83pts to them in a PF.
We were not anywhere close to them, no one was.
In terms of quality, we were nowhere near.
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This is the important point. You'd struggle to find a Cats fan who isn't scarred by the past 10 years of finals performances and who is hesitant about getting ahead of themselves. But what is the point in remaining glass half empty? To make it easier to handle the highly possible scenario we don't win? Where's the fun in that?
After the last two years of what we've had to deal with in the world, let's be upbeat for a change. It makes no differences to our on field performances what we believe, so let's get behind the boys and enjoy the ride. I like many others are waiting keenly for September to start to see what we serve up, but I am getting great enjoyment from what they've given us this year, once again putting ourselves in contention for a flag. As a Cats fan you have to be so proud to see us sticking it up the entire league. Too old and too slow apparently. There's plenty of fans from other clubs that would no doubt kill to follow a club like us.
We all know how bloody hard flags are to win, so embrace the excitement and hope. It's what being a supporter is all about!
there is still one weakness and it is a gleaming weakness that i think will be the reason we lose if we do lose, and that is our midfield is not a top tier one, it is a middle of the road one.
if melbourne or another side beats us, it will come from smashing us around the ball, it will not come from beating us around the ground in general play.
We have adapted the old malthouse collingwood strategy to try and compensate for this fact and it seems to be working miracles. the simple strategy is
1. do not play any midfielder extended time around the ball, have a large volume of players who rotate through the middle
2. always have fresh legs around the contest
3. the above two points executed well should result in players who are physically more able to bash and crash consistently for four quarters, and if you are playing a star studded midfield like melbournes who flog petracca and oliver the entire game, you will wear them down and get ontop for large periods, or at least nullify their influence.
malthouse was on air years ago saying this was their tactic against our champion midfield in the 07 prelim final, and he went on to say that it single handedly almost worked and won them the game that night.
Art Vandelay_
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Gone full catempire (anyone checked up on lady parma, not like him to miss selection melt night)
The bloody lid is off and its long bloody gone
Got 2011/2013 vibes. The best bloody team in it.
Success or failure will determine which one it is but god damn that lids off.
Genuinely feels like we're the one's to beat this year and not the gatekeeper like we've been recently
The bloody lid is off and its long bloody gone
Got 2011/2013 vibes. The best bloody team in it.
Success or failure will determine which one it is but god damn that lids off.
Genuinely feels like we're the one's to beat this year and not the gatekeeper like we've been recently
Stuff it. We will win the flag. There, the lids off.
You will see it flying over the suburbs of Melbourne on its way to the MCG as we speak. If you listen closely enough, you will hear billy brownless singing the geelong theme song from its tin lid.
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