Prediction The lid

[00VicWard001]

Some simple statistics to illustrate just how challenging it is to win the flag in any given year. You have to win three finals (if you finish top four) to clinch the premiership. You can lose the first week, so that contingency is eliminated from this analysis. But, whether you win the QF or not, you need three finals wins in succession to lift the cup.

And even if you go into those three finals matches with a supposed win probability of 75% in each game (incredibly high, but let's run with that), your overall probability of winning the three games sits at 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75 = 0.42.

So even a team who is runaway favourites going into every one of their 'must-win' finals is still well under a 50% chance to get it done in the end. You have to push the win probability in every game to 80% (an utterly ridiculous figure for finals combatants, really) to get the overall probability of a flag to even nudge over 50%.

So the 'flag-flog' dichotomy just isn't supported by any reasonable view of the circumstances at play here. I believe we have the best chance of anyone from here to get it done. But to suggest that any team whose logical probability of success is still 50% (at most) should then absolutely expect to win the whole shebang is just a clear denial of the objective facts at play for mine.

Please, what you are saying is purely theoretical (and has nothing to do with objective facts).

What are the odds of Geelong winning 11 games in a row? Theoretically... based on your statistical premise - the odds of us beating the Saints is something like 5%.

This is true if you look at this as a sequence of games in a row and you look at this from game 1 looking at the future 10 games in a row. However, this week, when we're actually playing the Saints - the odds are not 0.05% are they?

What does that tell you? That outside of theory - we actually don't look at the likelihood of winning as a sequence of games in a row. We judge (objectively) winning/losing chances based on each game on it's own. The Grandfinal and all finals before it will be individual games with specific chances of wining based on each teams form, injuries, illnesses, players available, tactical styles, ground they play at, the weather... essentially new variables.

Back to your example - If a runaway favourite turns up to each game, then it is very likely they will win each game.

Otherwise, you are pretty much saying that Brisbane - assuming they make the top 4 - have just as much chance of winning the premiership as Geelong or Melbourne. And Brisbane will play the MCG in week 1.

Each game we play is a new game. We only look at sequences over a significant proportion of games. But even then, I don't think its applicable to football. It's not like its the same die being spun 100 times. In football, in 100 games, you play 17 other opponents multiple times. Your team will not be the same in game 1 and game 100. You will play in varying grounds with varying weather, tactics, coaches and so on. If it were a perfect predictor, then every team would win a premiership every 18 years.

 

[iameviljez]

What are the odds of Geelong winning 11 games in a row? Theoretically... based on your statistical premise - the odds of us beating the Saints is something like 5%.

That is not what goyoucatters is saying at all.

 

[00VicWard001]

That is not what goyoucatters is saying at all.

I just extrapolated his premise of winning 3 finals in a row. He based it as 42% for any team. Which is theoretically and statistically correct, but is not applicable in real life. I pointed out that 11 games ago, we'd have the odds of winning this next game at 5%. When really, each game has the most realistic odds just before the game is actually being played.

It is no point looking at future games and predicting if we win or lose them. The only game that matters is the next game right in front of you. Thats how football teams look at it, and I dont know why supporters would try and complicate things. Chris Scott isnt sitting there with his calculator working out the odds for winning the grand final.

 

[Lana]

Please, what you are saying is purely theoretical (and has nothing to do with objective facts).

What are the odds of Geelong winning 11 games in a row? Theoretically... based on your statistical premise - the odds of us beating the Saints is something like 5%.

This is a horrible misunderstanding of probability

 

[fpm84]

I’m excited because we have a gear we haven’t had in previous years and the fact is that there are a lot of teams with question marks at the moment.
Melbourne deserve respect, they’ve been there and done it and even in this up and down run they’ve still shown they have that great footy in them when things click. Sydney despite their reputation as a hardened tough outfit have a record that’s not dissimilar to ours in finals footy in the last 10 seasons so I’m not worried about them from a ‘Sydney know how to get it done’ perspective but they ARE good for at least one good finals performance most years so they’re a danger to us.

We’ve got our best chance in a while though

I reckon we've had a second gear for the last few years that has been good enough to beat most teams, but this season we seem to have a third gear. Third quarter v Dogs, fourth quarter v Port. We can demolish a team in the midfield, completely restrict them from scoring and pile on the goals ourselves. It's like we can take all of the opposition's best punches and then blitz them. I don't think I've seen that from a Geelong side since 2011.

 

[catempire]

Some simple statistics to illustrate just how challenging it is to win the flag in any given year. You have to win three finals (if you finish top four) to clinch the premiership. You can lose the first week, so that contingency is eliminated from this analysis. But, whether you win the QF or not, you need three finals wins in succession to lift the cup.

And even if you go into those three finals matches with a supposed win probability of 75% in each game (incredibly high, but let's run with that), your overall probability of winning the three games sits at 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75 = 0.42.

So even a team who is runaway favourites going into every one of their 'must-win' finals is still well under a 50% chance to get it done in the end. You have to push the win probability in every game to 80% (an utterly ridiculous figure for finals combatants, really) to get the overall probability of a flag to even nudge over 50%.

So the 'flag-flog' dichotomy just isn't supported by any reasonable view of the circumstances at play here. I believe we have the best chance of anyone from here to get it done. But to suggest that any team whose logical probability of success is still 50% (at most) should then absolutely expect to win the whole shebang is just a clear denial of the objective facts at play for mine.

Well said. To put it another way, Geelong is currently a $3 favourite for the flag which implies if you could simulate the rest of the season from here they’d only win 33% of the time. Melbourne is at $3.25 implying a 30% probability of a flag. Sydney is next at $7 implying 14%, followed by Brisbane $12 (8%), Collingwood $13 (7.7%) and the rest above $21 implying <5% chance.

 

[00VicWard001]

Well said. To put it another way, Geelong is currently a $3 favourite for the flag which implies if you could simulate the rest of the season from here they’d only win 33% of the time. Melbourne is at $3.25 implying a 30% probability of a flag. Sydney is next at $7 implying 14%, followed by Brisbane $12 (8%), Collingwood $13 (7.7%) and the rest above $21 implying <5% chance.

Maybe I’m not understanding the point of why this is being brought up - however the point im trying to make is that the season isn’t theoretically simulated from here.

I don’t look at this as simply stating the odds of winning the premiership and therefore being wary that it has a low chance even for the favourite - I look at each game as an individual game with its own varying factors.

 

[00VicWard001]

This is a horrible misunderstanding of probability

It’s not a misunderstanding- rather - I’m just struggling to understand and articulate why we are talking about theoretical odds from round 20, when each game is played on its own merits. I’d be interested to get your take on it.

 

[iameviljez]

I just extrapolated his premise of winning 3 finals in a row. He based it as 42% for any team. Which is theoretically and statistically correct, but is not applicable in real life. I pointed out that 11 games ago, we'd have the odds of winning this next game at 5%. When really, each game has the most realistic odds just before the game is actually being played.

It is no point looking at future games and predicting if we win or lose them. The only game that matters is the next game right in front of you. Thats how football teams look at it, and I dont know why supporters would try and complicate things. Chris Scott isnt sitting there with his calculator working out the odds for winning the grand final.

No, by goyoucatters logic, the odds of winning any next game are independent of the previous one. It’s the odds of winning 11 in a row that are minuscule.

The only point goyoucatters is trying to make is, effectively, flags are hard to win so don’t go crazy if we don’t win this one.

 

[catempire]

Maybe I’m not understanding the point of why this is being brought up - however the point im trying to make is that the season isn’t theoretically simulated from here.

I don’t look at this as simply stating the odds of winning the premiership and therefore being wary that it has a low chance even for the favourite - I look at each game as an individual game with its own varying factors.

I understood the point to be the opening line of goyoucatters post:

Some simple statistics to illustrate just how challenging it is to win the flag in any given year.

You can calculate the probability of a series of events. It’s theoretical but illustrative.

 

[00VicWard001]

No, by goyoucatters logic, the odds of winning any next game are independent of the previous one. It’s the odds of winning 11 in a row that are minuscule.

The only point goyoucatters is trying to make is, effectively, flags are hard to win so don’t go crazy if we don’t win this one.

goyoucatters ah, I get what you’re saying and agree with you. Carry on, ignore my raving.

Thanks for explaining.

 

[catsfootyfan89]

Lid is off for me. We're winning this

 

[Chinacats]

Some simple statistics to illustrate just how challenging it is to win the flag in any given year. You have to win three finals (if you finish top four) to clinch the premiership. You can lose the first week, so that contingency is eliminated from this analysis. But, whether you win the QF or not, you need three finals wins in succession to lift the cup.

And even if you go into those three finals matches with a supposed win probability of 75% in each game (incredibly high, but let's run with that), your overall probability of winning the three games sits at 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75 = 0.42.

So even a team who is runaway favourites going into every one of their 'must-win' finals is still well under a 50% chance to get it done in the end. You have to push the win probability in every game to 80% (an utterly ridiculous figure for finals combatants, really) to get the overall probability of a flag to even nudge over 50%.

So the 'flag-flog' dichotomy just isn't supported by any reasonable view of the circumstances at play here. I believe we have the best chance of anyone from here to get it done. But to suggest that any team whose logical probability of success is still 50% (at most) should then absolutely expect to win the whole shebang is just a clear denial of the objective facts at play for mine.

We’ve had about 8 goes at it since 2013. If you don’t win one of them then it’s a big fail!

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Lid status today: uncomfortably loose and slipping

 

[iameviljez]

We’ve had about 8 goes at it since 2013. If you don’t win one of them then it’s a big fail!

Yes, but with the caveat that the only time I think we have been the best team in it was 2019.

 

[Lana]

It’s not a misunderstanding- rather - I’m just struggling to understand and articulate why we are talking about theoretical odds from round 20, when each game is played on its own merits. I’d be interested to get your take on it.

Merits of the discussion of probability are like all on this board.

Given our last decade, it is not a infrequent comment that we weren't good enough or team A was destined to win it or beat us etc.

I think they'd be a very small overlap between the people making those types of comments and those who understood the point goyoucatters was making.

I'll just focus on your comment as it stood

"What are the odds of Geelong winning 11 games in a row? Theoretically... based on your statistical premise - the odds of us beating the Saints is something like 5%."

Assuming that

1. Winning or losing previous games has no effect on the probability of winning then next game (each game is an independent event)
2. probability of a draw is 0

lets say we have a game of two outcomes
Winning with a P(W)=0.7
Losing with a P(L)=0.3


Pr(W=2) = Pr(Wg1) X Pr(Wg2)
Pr(W=X)= Pr(W)^x


The low odds that you describe would be chances of winning 11 games in a row given that we have 11 games to play. Holding the assumptions above. Pr(W=11) = Pr(W)^11 = (0.7)^11 = 0.02 ish

Our current situation is better described as given that Geelong has won the last 10 games what is the probability it will win 11 in a row.



The upside-down u ( intersection ) is the when two events both occur

Pr(W=11 intersection W=10) = Pr(W=11) as the only situation were you win both 10 and 11 games is where you win 11 games.

in this case P(W=11|W=10) = Pr(W=11)/ Pr(W=10) = Pr(W)^11 / Pr(W)^10 = Pr(W)= Pr(W=1)=0.7

Back to the finals scenario, assuming it a knock format to simplify it, where we have to win 3 in a row

Pr(W=3)= Pr(Wg1=1) X Pr(Wg2=1) X Pr(Wg3 =1) = Pr(W=1)^3 = 0.343

 

[catempire]

Merits of the discussion of probability are like all on this board.

Given our last decade, it is not a infrequent comment that we weren't good enough or team A was destined to win it or beat us etc.

I think they'd be a very small overlap between the people making those types of comments and those who understood the point goyoucatters was making.

I'll just focus on your comment as it stood

"What are the odds of Geelong winning 11 games in a row? Theoretically... based on your statistical premise - the odds of us beating the Saints is something like 5%."

Assuming that

1. Winning or losing previous games has no effect on the probability of winning then next game (each game is an independent event)
2. probability of a draw is 0

lets say we have a game of two outcomes
Winning with a P(W)=0.7
Losing with a P(L)=0.3


Pr(W=2) = Pr(Wg1) X Pr(Wg2)
Pr(W=X)= Pr(W)^x


The low odds that you describe would be chances of winning 11 games in a row given that we have 11 games to play. Holding the assumptions above. Pr(W=11) = Pr(W)^11 = (0.7)^11 = 0.02 ish

Our current situation is better described as given that Geelong has won the last 10 games what is the probability it will win 11 in a row.

View attachment 1464219

The upside-down u ( intersection ) is the when two events both occur

Pr(W=11 intersection W=10) = Pr(W=11) as the only situation were you win both 10 and 11 games is where you win 11 games.

in this case P(W=11|W=10) = Pr(W=11)/ Pr(W=10) = Pr(W)^11 / Pr(W)^10 = Pr(W)= Pr(W=1)=0.7

Back to the finals scenario, assuming it a knock format to simplify it, where we have to win 3 in a row

Pr(W=3)= Pr(Wg1=1) X Pr(Wg2=1) X Pr(Wg3 =1) = Pr(W=1)^3 = 0.343

 

[Chinacats]

Yes, but with the caveat that the only time I think we have been the best team in it was 2019.

Could argue 2020 we had advantages that put us in a better position. 2021 should’ve finished top after the H & A and now again in 2022 from this point we should finish top . Unfortunately 2nd doesn’t cut it anymore for this lot! Win or nothing!

 

[Chinacats]

Merits of the discussion of probability are like all on this board.

Given our last decade, it is not a infrequent comment that we weren't good enough or team A was destined to win it or beat us etc.

I think they'd be a very small overlap between the people making those types of comments and those who understood the point goyoucatters was making.

I'll just focus on your comment as it stood

"What are the odds of Geelong winning 11 games in a row? Theoretically... based on your statistical premise - the odds of us beating the Saints is something like 5%."

Assuming that

1. Winning or losing previous games has no effect on the probability of winning then next game (each game is an independent event)
2. probability of a draw is 0

lets say we have a game of two outcomes
Winning with a P(W)=0.7
Losing with a P(L)=0.3


Pr(W=2) = Pr(Wg1) X Pr(Wg2)
Pr(W=X)= Pr(W)^x


The low odds that you describe would be chances of winning 11 games in a row given that we have 11 games to play. Holding the assumptions above. Pr(W=11) = Pr(W)^11 = (0.7)^11 = 0.02 ish

Our current situation is better described as given that Geelong has won the last 10 games what is the probability it will win 11 in a row.

View attachment 1464219

The upside-down u ( intersection ) is the when two events both occur

Pr(W=11 intersection W=10) = Pr(W=11) as the only situation were you win both 10 and 11 games is where you win 11 games.

in this case P(W=11|W=10) = Pr(W=11)/ Pr(W=10) = Pr(W)^11 / Pr(W)^10 = Pr(W)= Pr(W=1)=0.7

Back to the finals scenario, assuming it a knock format to simplify it, where we have to win 3 in a row

Pr(W=3)= Pr(Wg1=1) X Pr(Wg2=1) X Pr(Wg3 =1) = Pr(W=1)^3 = 0.343

Dear me! If you win 10 in a row you’re expected to win the next game and then the next etc…

 

[Lana]

Weren't you a mod ... at least you haven't created a wiki

 

[goyoucatters]

We’ve had about 8 goes at it since 2013. If you don’t win one of them then it’s a big fail!

As the raw probabilities demonstrate, even in a year like this one (where we actually look to be the best side in it, for a change), we're less than a 50% chance of taking it out.

So if you equate failing to beat those odds in any given year with the spectre of a 'big fail', I simply have to disagree.

 

[catempire]

Weren't you a mod ... at least you haven't created a wiki

Who says I haven’t?

 

[Chinacats]

As the raw probabilities demonstrate, even in a year like this one (where we actually look to be the best side in it, for a change), we're less than a 50% chance of taking it out.

So if you equate failing to beat these odds in any given year with the spectre of a 'big fail', I simply have to disagree.

You haven’t factored in finals experience and pre game favouritism for each individual game. compared with swans , woods dockers blues, Dees etc we have the most experience and will be favorite in every game we play. No excuses football club time has approached unfortunately. Your jittery- ness hopefully won’t grip the coaching Staff and team yet again! Cup or nothing! And no excuses and effed up win % formulas need apply!

 

[Mr Meow]

As the raw probabilities demonstrate, even in a year like this one (where we actually look to be the best side in it, for a change), we're less than a 50% chance of taking it out.

So if you equate failing to beat those odds in any given year with the spectre of a 'big fail', I simply have to disagree.

Yeah the closest we have gotten to odds on premiers was 2020 as we made the grand final and then were $2.10 to win the game. Of course before the finals we wouldn't have been, but for that reason 2020 is quite obviously the one that got away. The finals system means it's very, very difficult to "expect" a premiership right up until you qualify for the grand final. That's why winning 3 in a short period - as Brisbane, Geelong, Hawthorn and Richmond did - is quite remarkable, especially within 20 years.

Side note: were Geelong ever the favourites heading into a finals series from 2012 onwards? I know we finished top 2 a few times, but I'm not sure until this year we were backed that heavily this late.

 

[Lana]

Who says I haven’t?

I assumed the best tsk tsk tsk, your parents must have always wondered where it all went wrong