The Marvel Curse

[PJays]

Why are teams who play out of Marvel Stadium so bad?

Is this just a coincidence or is there any connection with playing at Marvel?

Marvel teams have played 115 seasons in the AFL. 24 for St Kilda, Essendon, Bulldogs and North and 19 seasons for Carlton.

In 115 seasons, only 2 flags. Essendon in 2000 and Dogs 2016.

45 finals appearances from 115 seasons. A 39% strike rate. An underachievement given over that period, 47% of teams made finals. Non-Marvel teams would've been around 50% to counter the 39% Marvel rate.

None of the 5 clubs made finals 50% of the time. The Dogs and Essendon were best with 11 from 24.

And 10 wooden spoons. All 5 teams winning at least one. With Saints (2), North (2) and Carlton (4) the worst culprits.

What explains this?

Anything in particular, or just random chance?

 

[The 747]

Why are teams who play out of Marvel Stadium so bad?

Is this just a coincidence or is there any connection with playing at Marvel?

Marvel teams have played 115 seasons in the AFL. 24 for St Kilda, Essendon, Bulldogs and North and 19 seasons for Carlton.

In 115 seasons, only 2 flags. Essendon in 2000 and Dogs 2016.

45 finals appearances from 115 seasons. A 39% strike rate. An underachievement given over that period, 47% of teams made finals. Non-Marvel teams would've been around 50% to counter the 39% Marvel rate.

None of the 5 clubs made finals 50% of the time. The Dogs and Essendon were best with 11 from 24.

And 10 wooden spoons. All 5 teams winning at least one. With Saints (2), North (2) and Carlton (4) the worst culprits.

What explains this?

Anything in particular, or just random chance?

Flags are a pretty crude metric.

Essendon were a dominant side in 00-01. Flag in 2000, GF in 2001.

St Kilda were unlucky not to win at least one flag and were around the mark for five or so years.

Essendon fell in a hole, Carlton in a never-ending hole (both of their own making).

North were a prelim side then collapsed.

The Dogs won a flag and made a GF in a six year period.

 

[PJays]

Flags are a pretty crude metric.

Essendon were a dominant side in 00-01. Flag in 2000, GF in 2001.

St Kilda were unlucky not to win at least one flag and were around the mark for five or so years.

Essendon fell in a hole, Carlton in a never-ending hole (both of their own making).

North were a prelim side then collapsed.

The Dogs won a flag and made a GF in a six year period.

Essendon and Dogs are both average teams over this period. 11 finals appearances, 1 flag, 1 wooden spoon.

St Kilda unlucky not to win a flag or 2. 9 finals. Lots of 9ths and 10ths. You could say they've been pretty average.

North and Carlton really bring the averages down. Neither has played a Grand Final this century. Neither even lost a close prelim. Carlton 5 finals in 19 years.

But it's interesting to me that none of the 5 clubs are above average on any metric.

 

[The 747]

Essendon and Dogs are both average teams over this period. 11 finals appearances, 1 flag, 1 wooden spoon.

St Kilda unlucky not to win a flag or 2. 9 finals. Lots of 9ths and 10ths. You could say they've been pretty average.

North and Carlton really bring the averages down. Neither has played a Grand Final this century. Neither even lost a close prelim. Carlton 5 finals in 19 years.

But it's interesting to me that none of the 5 clubs are above average on any metric.

It is interesting but I am not convinced there is much to it - other than correlation.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Saints, Bulldogs and North are probably the 'small 3' of Victoria so probably explains a lot to begin with. The fact they get smaller crowds is a reason they play most home games at Marvel. Carlton and Essendon still get quite a few home games at the MCG but have sucked this century (bar very early on) for unrelated reasons.

 

[HTPunter]

Don’t think it’s a thing. Coincidence that all those teams have had genuinely bad eras that have nothing to do with which stadium they play at. Maybe you could make an argument Saints 2009/2010 were less experienced at the MCG, but both years they played multiple finals in a row at the G & had 9 MCG games 2007-2008 including 3 finals so it was hardly foreign to them.

All up it’s
MCG 10 (massive boost from 2 big eras)
Kardinia 4
Gabba 3
Marvel 2
Perth 2
SCG 2
Adelaide 1

Think really none of the performances from the 5 clubs in OP can be attributed to ground.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Are Carlton and Essendon looking to move away from Marvel coming years?

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

People who don't think home grounds are the biggest advantage in sport across the world, and always have been - are either dumb or in denial.


Whilst the MCG is obviously shared, at least the home teams get to play teams there that pretty much never play there - and they also get experience playing at the ground that hosts the big finals.

Being a tenant at Docklands gets you very, very close to completely fu** all in terms of advantage.

You either play another tenant there, or a team that plays there heaps also. Plus, any sort of home ground advantage relating to the conditions is rendered useless come finals time anyway.


I'd argue that Docklands was the biggest fu** up in the history of the game by a long stretch in terms of the AFL trying to even up the comp.

 

[The 747]

Are Carlton and Essendon looking to move away from Marvel coming years?

I am not sure that they have that freedom of choice.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

Are Carlton and Essendon looking to move away from Marvel coming years?

At least Carlton and Essendon get their regular MCG 'big games'. That gives them realistic finals exposure.

If you don't get that, like the other Docklands don't, it's like handbrake on your club.

 

[Cmarsh]

Why are teams who play out of Marvel Stadium so bad?

Is this just a coincidence or is there any connection with playing at Marvel?

Marvel teams have played 115 seasons in the AFL. 24 for St Kilda, Essendon, Bulldogs and North and 19 seasons for Carlton.

In 115 seasons, only 2 flags. Essendon in 2000 and Dogs 2016.

45 finals appearances from 115 seasons. A 39% strike rate. An underachievement given over that period, 47% of teams made finals. Non-Marvel teams would've been around 50% to counter the 39% Marvel rate.

None of the 5 clubs made finals 50% of the time. The Dogs and Essendon were best with 11 from 24.

And 10 wooden spoons. All 5 teams winning at least one. With Saints (2), North (2) and Carlton (4) the worst culprits.

What explains this?

Anything in particular, or just random chance?

The Saints were bad for pretty much all of the 100 years or so before they entered Docklands.

 

[The 747]

I'd argue that Docklands was the biggest fu** up in the history of the game by a long stretch in terms of the AFL trying to even up the comp.

Perhaps, but I am not sure what else they could have done. It was either push it all to Waverley (with no train line) or try to retain suburban grounds where a) most clubs didn't have the money and b) the clubs that had the money they wanted to draw crowds to the big grounds and c) the local community wouldn't agree with a stadium build/upgrade.

 

[PJays]

The Saints were bad for pretty much all of the 100 years or so before they entered Docklands.

Yeah well Carlton and Essendon had about 30 something flags between them, too

Now Essendon hasn't won a final in 20 years and Carlton hasn't made a grand final in 25...

 

[PJays]

You either play another tenant there, or a team that plays there heaps also. Plus, any sort of home ground advantage relating to the conditions is rendered useless come finals time anyway.

Spot on

Teams from outside Victoria play at Marvel, on average, 3 or 4 times a year. Their veteran players will have played there 20 or 30 times. (Eg Travis Boak 40 times, Jack Darling 35, Dayne Zorko 34, Rory Sloane 28 etc).

When Melbourne teams travel interstate, it's somewhere they'll play once every two years. Or maybe once a year.

To add to this, you don't get huge crowd advantages at Marvel in many cases. Brisbane and Sydney originated from Melbourne teams so they've always got a few thousand supporters.

Melbourne has had many South Australians migrate across the border in recent decades, and plenty of Adelaide fans included.

But when small Melbourne clubs (Dogs, Dees, Saints, North) play elsewhere in Australia, there's a few hundred fans cheering them.

So with both crowd support and ground familiarity, Melbourne teams are at a significant disadvantage in the AFL. But especially Marvel tenants. And clubs with small fan bases.

Marvel just doesn't provide a meaningful home ground advantage in the same way that, say, the Gabba does for Brisbane.

And as you note, unlike the MCG, tenants aren't being prepared for finals which are played outdoor in sometimes rainy, windy conditions.

 

[Freomaniac]

Yeah well Carlton and Essendon had about 30 something flags between them, too

Now Essendon hasn't won a final in 20 years and Carlton hasn't made a grand final in 25...

Well yes that is true. Carlton and Essendon have won 16 flags each. Collingwood has won 16 flags as well.

Hawks, demons and Richmond have won 13 flags each.

It helps being a tenant at the MCG.

It also helps being a side that has won at least 10 grand finals at MCG like a Geelong too.

 

[PJays]

At least Carlton and Essendon get their regular MCG 'big games'. That gives them realistic finals exposure.

St Kilda has hosted 1 game at year at the MCG the last 2 years. The 150th celebration vs Essendon, and a Thursday night vs Collingwood this year

Both games had crowds of 69,000, with Saints getting two of their best wins of the last 2 years. It gives our players the opportunity to play at the "home of football" in front of big crowds, and our fans a bigger stadium experience. And boosted the coffers.

I hope St Kilda pushes for 2 a year permanently. It's a no-brainer and ticks a lot of boxes. And with the AFL owning Marvel we should be able to make it work.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

I suspect there isn’t much else to it than three of the clubs being Carlton, North and Essendon. Who have all been shit for large parts of the period.

 

[Teen Wolf]

NM, Stk & WB make finals more often now than they did pre-2000.

Essendon's current finals streak consists of losses outside Victoria, and at the MCG vs Carlton, North, and Geelong. Last time they won a final was at the MCG against Melbourne...

 

[GC2015]

Why are teams who play out of Marvel Stadium so bad?

Is this just a coincidence or is there any connection with playing at Marvel?

Check out this thread - MCG tennants vs Marvel tennants: 11 flags vs 2 flags

 

[PJays]

NM, Stk & WB make finals more often now than they did pre-2000.

That's just because of other equalisation measures. Draft, salary cap and free agency rules.

St Kilda once had a 17 year streak of missing finals (1974-1990) which immediately followed North doing the same for 15 years (1959-1973). Overlapping these two eras was Melbourne's 22 year streak (1965-1986).

In fact St Kilda made finals 6 times in their first 64 years- preceding their golden era of 60's and early 70's, where they won one flag from three grand finals. North Melbourne was similar with 5 appearances in their first 49 years before their own golden era of flags in 75 and 77. The Dogs began with 13 straight seasons of missing finals (1925-1937) and didn't make consecutive years until the 1950s. Joel Selwood has won more finals than St Kilda in its entire history.

Those types of things don't happen anymore in the AFL era. If you were to analyse say 1994 - 2023 you'd find every AFL team has made finals at least ~30% of the time over the last 3 decades. Except Gold Coast who haven't made it so far. Freo who started in 1995 would be next lowest I think, with 28%, being 8 appearances in 28 seasons.

Draft, salary cap and free agency restructions have led to more equal opportunities. But home ground advantage is one factor that hasn't been equalised and realistically can't ever be.

 

[SplintWhisky]

Are Carlton and Essendon looking to move away from Marvel coming years?

Since Eddie Macguire isn't here I will do the thing he always says when someone brings this up "Yeah they want to leave Marvel and come back to the G after they took all that AFL cash to play more home games there".

Eddie pays $2 each time you bring that up in front of people.

 

[NetworkNerd]

Whats the minimum games to be considered 'playing out of Marvel'

Collingwood 2023 played 2 home games at Marvel. Does that count?

 

[Dazb86]

Might be not playing finals at Marvel. Who knows?

 

[phantom13]

Brisbane and Sydney originated from Melbourne teams so they've always got a few thousand supporters.

Melbourne has had many South Australians migrate across the border in recent decades, and plenty of Adelaide fans included.

But when small Melbourne clubs (Dogs, Dees, Saints, North) play elsewhere in Australia, there's a few hundred fans cheering them.

And as I mentioned previously, half, if not most, of Geelong's fan base lives in Melbourne. I know loads of Geelong supporters. If Geelong has 25,000 people at the game and most of them are members sitting near the play, but Carlton or Collingwood have 45,000 and they're a bit louder, hardly a huge disadvantage. I'd call that fairly neutral.

Look we had a little spat about this yesterday, guns down cause id actually like to ask a question about the bolded.

You use alot of data (which i think is you finding causation and confirmation bias but that aside) do you have stats to back up the bolded? Or is it anecdotal.

Particularly on the Geelong 25k and Carlton 45k (which is a 20k difference equivalent for Marvel at capacity would be 35k to 15k which is massive) but do you have any data to back those up?

 

[PJays]

Look we had a little spat about this yesterday, guns down cause id actually like to ask a question about the bolded.

You use alot of data (which i think is you finding causation and confirmation bias but that aside) do you have stats to back up the bolded? Or is it anecdotal.

Particularly on the Geelong 25k and Carlton 45k (which is a 20k difference equivalent for Marvel at capacity would be 35k to 15k which is massive) but do you have any data to back those up?

Not hard data.

Just based on general observations and logic like:

• The small population of Geelong and the huge population of Melbourne
• The historical movements between the areas would result in spread. As a theoretical example, if 70% of Geelong barracked for Geelong 50 years ago, and 30% of those people (and their descendants) have moved to Melbourne over the past 50 years, you'll have plenty of Geelong fans in Melbourne (in addition to the ones already there)
• The fact I personally know a lot of Geelong fans living in Melbourne
• The fact that Geelong people are more likely to commute to Melbourne for work, and thus more likely to be willing to travel to Melbourne. Compared to say, bayside Saints fans or Northern suburbs Roos fans comparable willingness to travel to Geelong for footy

I think with crowds there's a kind of cancelling out impact, in a sense. It's not a ratio thing.

St Kilda is a small club, as you would know, often our crowd is outdone by the opposing crowd. But I think if both teams have solid numbers in the venue, both fanbases will make noise when their team gets going, because many fans don't make any noise whatsoever- until their team fires. So you've got potential for great noise from both sides. My point about Geelong was, historically (and perhaps this will change with a bigger capacity stadium and more people coming from Melbourne) was they have a huge crowd advantage 8 or 9 times a year. Where 80 or 90% of the crowd's cheering them. Any other Melbourne club only gets that 4 or 5 times a year- when they host interstate clubs in Melbourne. So I consider that a significant advantage for Geelong during the Home and Away season.

And actually, data on Geelong bears out the fact they overachieve in Home & Away relative to finals. They've finished top 4 20 times in the past 35 years. But only 4 flags.

Every time Geelong wins the flag they're clearly the top team and heavy favourites heading into finals (2007, 2022) or one of the clear top 2 (2009, 2011). They also lost one where they were short-priced favourites (2008). And about 15 other times in my life, they've been one of the main contenders and failed to win.

This isn't a coincidence.

St Kilda hasn't won in Geelong since 1999. The Western Bulldogs won last year and it was their first win since 2003. Both St Kilda and Bulldogs have beaten Geelong plenty of times in Melbourne over those periods. When Dogs and Saints play Geelong in Melbourne, they simply don't have the same advantage the Cats have in Geelong, with both the crowd and the ground shape (KP being uniquely thin).

So I think Geelong has a significant advantage which inflates their Home and Away record probably by the order of 1 or 1.2 wins (on average) and 1 or 2 ladder positions each year. But when they lack that advantage during finals they get shown up. Their true position in the pecking order becomes apparent.

And the Brisbane and Sydney thing, it's just based on personal observations that those teams often have decent support in Melbourne. Which isn't surprising since they originate from Melbourne clubs 28 and 43 years ago respectively, which is only a generation ago.