Analysis The mental ineptitude against so called "lesser" sides & general mediocrity of EFC (Since 2005)

[Macca18]

Collingwood definitely aren't a "lesser" side at the moment... so that part of the thread title isn't necessarily relevant...

But the general mediocrity of the club in BIG games since 2005 continues to live on.

 

[Macca18]

Let's try and have a sensible analysis of some of the reasons our club has been unable to win many of the so called "winnable" games since our last finals victory (2004).

Below is a list of the games (37) where our club has started "favourites" (or equal favourites) against sides of similar ladder position or worse and have lost. There are also many other examples (15+) where we have started favourites (or equal favourites) and have won by unexpectedly (for some) small margins. Some people label this typical "Essington" syndrome, but whatever you call it... it's a serious psychological problem that has gripped the club for over a decade now.

Now of course we have had some very memorable (and unexpected) victories during this period as well against some highly rated opponents (like every other club) but they are well and truly outnumbered by the lacklustre losses... again something that every other club also experiences but not to the scale of Essendon.

Many are criticised (and fair enough) for their lack of positivity prior to fixtures such as today (18th placed Western Bulldogs) but the statistics make for very poor reading as a lover of this club, as many of you are. Many will also point to us fielding many mid to lower table teams during this period (and also the drugs saga)... but the problem has also been prevalent during some of our 'better' years.

So... is it...
- The club cannot handle the pressure of being favourites?
- Underrating our opponents?
- Getting too ahead of ourselves after a good win or decent run of form?
- Overrated list?
- Mediocre midfield throughout this period?
- Poor coaching?
- Poor preparation?
- Egos?
- Other?
- All of the above?

Apart from obvious and natural improvement, how can we as a club improve in this area?

Please see the following list of examples...

2005:
- R2 vs Carlton @ MCG (4 point loss to eventual wooden spooners after leading by 28 points)
- R6 vs Brisbane @ ES (48 point loss at home to then bottom of the ladder, Brisbane)
- R20 vs Hawthorn @ MCG (13 point loss to then 14th placed Hawthorn)

2006:
- R7 vs Carlton @ MCG (33 point loss to eventual wooden spooners)
- R9 vs Port Adelaide @ ES (60 point loss at home to then 15th placed Port Adelaide)
- R16 vs Carlton @ MCG (Draw to eventual wooden spooners after leading by 12 points in the final two minutes)
- R20 vs Hawthorn @ ES (18 point loss to then 14th placed Hawthorn after trailing by 61 points at Half Time)

2007:
- R3 vs Carlton @ MCG (3 point loss to eventual 15th placed team after leading by 48 points at Half Time)
- R19 vs Fremantle @ Subiaco (63 point loss to 13th placed team)
- R21 vs Richmond @ MCG (27 point loss to eventual wooden spooners)

2008:
- R19 vs West Coast @ Subiaco (10 point loss to 15th placed team)

2009:
- R4 vs North Melbourne @ ES (12 point loss to then 12th placed team)
- R17 vs Richmond @ MCG (5 point loss to then 15th placed team)
- R18 vs West Coast @ Subiaco (27 point loss to then 14th placed team)
- R21 vs Fremantle @ Subiaco (54 point loss to then 15th placed team)

2010:
- R4 vs West Coast @ Subiaco (23 point loss to then 14th placed team and eventual wooden spooners)
- R14 vs Adelaide @ AAMI (84 point loss to then 14th placed team)
- R15 vs Melbourne @ MCG (19 point loss to then 14th placed team)
- R16 vs West Coast @ ES (32 point loss to then 16th placed team and eventual wooden spooners)
- R21 vs Brisbane @ ES (27 point loss to then 14th placed team)

2011:
- R11 vs Melbourne @ MCG (33 point loss to eventual 13th placed Melbourne, a team that had been thrashed in their previous three games)

2012:
- R10 vs Melbourne @ MCG (6 point loss to then 17th placed Melbourne who were winless with a percentage of 51.8%, we started the game in 2nd position)
- R22 vs Richmond @ MCG (45 point loss to eventual 12th placed Richmond)

2013:
- R8 vs Brisbane @ ES (8 point loss to then 15th placed Brisbane)
- R20 vs West Coast @ ES (53 point loss to eventual 13th placed West Coast)

2014:
- R5 vs St Kilda @ ES (16 point loss to eventual wooden spooners St Kilda)
- R13 vs Melbourne @ MCG (1 point loss to eventual 17th placed Melbourne after leading by 24 points in the second half)
- R23 vs Carlton @ MCG (Draw against 13th placed Carlton)

2015:
- R10 vs Geelong @ ES (Goalless at Half Time against 12th placed Geelong, who kicked the first 10 goals of the game in an eventual 69 point loss)
- R14 vs St Kilda @ ES (110 point loss against 13th placed St Kilda)
- R21 vs Gold Coast @ MS (2 point loss to 16th placed Gold Coast)

2016:
- Irrelevant due to player bans and finishing 18th

2017:
- R3 vs Carlton @ MCG (15 point loss to winless 16th placed Carlton)
- R7 vs Fremantle @ Subiaco (37 point loss to 11th placed Fremantle after leading by 19 points in the second half)
- R14 vs Sydney @ SCG (1 point loss to then 12th placed Sydney after leading by 19 points with 4 minutes to go)
- R15 vs Brisbane @ ES (8 point loss to then 18th placed & eventual wooden spooner Brisbane after leading by 20 points in the final quarter)

2018:
- R2 vs Fremantle @ Subiaco (16 point loss to then 17th placed side)
- R3 vs Western Bulldogs @ ES (21 point loss to then winless 18th placed side with a percentage of 47.6%)

Look forward to reading your responses.

We can now add 2019 Round 2 vs St Kilda @ ES to this list of mental ineptitude.

 

[Shane Heard]

We can now add 2019 Round 2 vs St Kilda @ ES to this list of mental ineptitude.

The Darkest Hour.

 

[yodellinhank]

So called.

 

[WindyHillZephyr]

I did an analysis on this last year. Turns out that betting on us when we are outsiders and betting against us when we are favourites is a positive outcome for the majority of the last ten years.

 

[Jesse Custer]

It’s simple. We have become a rubbish club. I’m not sure we stand for anything substantial, just mediocrity.

 

[boncer34]

Who says we're mediocre?

Former North medical guy did a sports physio presentation yesterday. Showed a graph of injuries over the past decade.

WE WERE NUMBER ONE BABY!!!

 

[Doss]

Having a rodeo turd clown running your fitness program will do that.

 

[eth-dog]

Yay injuries!

 

[Darealrath]

I did an analysis on this last year. Turns out that betting on us when we are outsiders and betting against us when we are favourites is a positive outcome for the majority of the last ten years.

Always reassuring when the reality matches the perception!

It's fair to say we've been very ordinary for a long time, but the random big upset has had the effect of a lot of us thinking that these performances should be our baseline. However I've had a nagging feeling the last few years that while we obviously played well in a lot of these upsets, the opposition were either off the boil or missing a couple of big names (or both) and there is a tendency not to take this into account. So while it looks like the team is then mentally soft when it then loses to a 'lower' team, its probably more that those results are indicative of the team's level given all the on field shortcomings (gameplan and weak midfield most obviously).

 

[yodellinhank]

In your face space coyote

 

[rumply]

Who says we're mediocre?

Former North medical guy did a sports physio presentation yesterday. Showed a graph of injuries over the past decade.

WE WERE NUMBER ONE BABY!!!

with a bullet?