Analysis The overly optimistic and ambitious 'How we can make the Top 4' thread

[kerrazy]

So after our performance against the giants, I am suddenly full of false hope that our season may actually be somewhat salvageable. What a good time to analyse what we need to do to make the Top 4.

Unfortunately there have been a few games this season that will come back to bite us in the arse, which means that we have to rely heavily on other teams doing a number on the teams above us in order to have a chance.

However, after what has been a disappointing season, we are still in with a chance (albeit small) of winning the cup. Who woulda thought?

Lets look at the remaining fixture and in particular games of importance:

Round 21:

Freo vs Crows
Tigers vs Cats

Round 22:

WC vs Hawks
Kangaroos vs Swans
GWS vs Freo
Port vs Crows
Lions vs Cats
Bombers vs Bulldogs

Round 23:

Crows vs WC
Cats vs Melbourne
Swans vs Richmond
Kangaroos vs GWS
Freo vs Bulldogs
Hawks vs Pies

A look at the ladder:

1 Hawthorn 20 16 0 4 122.40 64
2 Sydney 20 15 0 5 146.90 60
3 Adelaide 19 14 0 5 141.10 56
4 GWS Giants 20 14 0 6 137.60 56
5 Geelong 19 14 0 5 137.10 56
6 West Coast 20 14 0 6 129.20 56
7 Bulldogs 20 14 0 6 115.30 56
8 Nth Melbourne 20 12 0 8 108.50 48

Freo have games against the Crows, Giants and Bulldogs. Talk about a harsh way to end the season and how ironic, having to rely on them to cause some damage for us.

First things first, to make the Top 4 we need to win our last two games as a bare minimum. Unfortunately even if we do, there is a lot riding on other games in order for this to even happen.

Top 4 contenders:

Hawthorn:
Last 2 games against us and the pies, providing that we beat them next week and they lose against the pies, they could fall out of the top 4, with us replacing them. How sweet would that be?

Sydney:
Games against the Roos and Richmond is looking like 2 wins for them. But they will definitely be games of interest. They would need to lose both games for us to sneak up above them. Highly unlikely.

Adelaide:
3 games left for the Crows. They have games against Freo, Port and us in the final round. If they beat Freo and Port, then they will finish above us. Really need them to lose starting this week!

GWS:
Need these guys to lose at least 1 game out of the Roos and Freo. Looking unlikely but there is always a chance of an upset.

Bulldogs:
We are on even points, yet have a better percentage then these guys. Provided that we win our two games, it doesnt matter how these guys fair against the other teams in their remaining games.


There are many possibilities in these last few rounds, but signs are point to us finishing 6th, maybe 5th. However upsets are always possible, wouldnt it be nice if we could sneak into the top 4 by seasons end?

 

[Stereophonic]

So may if only we beat the Bulldogs, we should have beaten the pies, how did we not score against Adelaide in the last and if only we believed against Geelong and Sydney thoughts going through my head. One of those converted to a win and we would be playing for a top 2 spot in Adelaide.

 

[kerrazy]

So may if only we beat the Bulldogs, we should have beaten the pies, how did we not score against Adelaide in the last and if only we believed against Geelong and Sydney thoughts going through my head. One of those converted to a win and we would be playing for a top 2 spot in Adelaide.

Isnt it funny how bad we have played this year, yet we are still in with a shot. Those games have bitten us right in the anus.

 

[FatPizza]

Isnt it funny how bad we have played this year, yet we are still in with a shot. Those games have bitten us right in the anus.

Well just think about our wins against Melbourne and GWS. As well as we played against GWS we did sort of steal that one, and we deserved to lose against Melbourne. So in the end it's balanced itself out over the year thus far.

 

[kerrazy]

Richmond winning this game would be good.

 

[stinger05]

YELLOW n BLACK!

 

[EagleShore]

Those conditions required for us to make the top 4 are too fanciful.

But yesterday felt like a fanciful dream, so you never know.

I think more important than where we finish is how we play over the next couple of weeks. There were some good signs yesterday of things than have been missing all year. Principally, Yeo played well and it made a massive difference in the end. Gov and Darling were a bit down. I reckon those three are key to our chances in the finals.

We know what to expect from Naitanui, Shuey, and JK...but those three talls in Gov, Darling, and Yeo have got to fire offensively for us to have a sniff in September. Add Hurn to that (we saw what a difference his 60m bullets do with that Butler - Darling - Sheppard - goal transition ).

 

[frenchconnection]

Well just think about our wins against Melbourne and GWS. As well as we played against GWS we did sort of steal that one, and we deserved to lose against Melbourne. So in the end it's balanced itself out over the year thus far.

When a game is as close with only minutes to go can't say we stole the match against GWS. Seeing as we were within a goal with only minutes/seconds to go, the winner was always going to be whoever was in front when the siren went. A game of football is over 4 quarters as we well and truly know as that's where we have fallen down in earlier games. Can't afford to take your foot off the pedal. Against Melbourne I will probably give you that one, but Melbourne did make a lot of errors in that last quarter both skill wise and bad decisions.

 

[FatPizza]

When a game is as close with only minutes to go can't say we stole the match against GWS. Seeing as we were within a goal with only minutes/seconds to go, the winner was always going to be whoever was in front when the siren went. A game of football is over 4 quarters as we well and truly know as that's where we have fallen down in earlier games. Can't afford to take your foot off the pedal. Against Melbourne I will probably give you that one, but Melbourne did make a lot of errors in that last quarter both skill wise and bad decisions.

Not saying we didn't deserve to have the chance to win yesterday, we played well enough to deserve it. But winning it in the fashion we did was almost like daylight robbery. That's just my opinion. However I certainly don't classify it as a lucky victory, it's the sort of win that'll hold us in good stead for the next couple of weeks.

 

[dajesmac]

From memory it's one win from two means we likely finish seventh. Two wins would mean we finish sixth.

Anything higher than that relies on unlikely results happening that are out of our control.

Having said that though Richmond are all over the Cats today.

 

[WCErevival]

Top 4 is literally impossible now. Best we could do is 5th. 6th more likely.

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Top 4 is literally impossible now. Best we could do is 5th. 6th more likely.

Yep. The loss to Collingwood and Barrass being rested was unacceptable.
The Crows fade out and loss to the Dogs poor as well. Not smashing Melbourne and Carlton hurt out percentage.

That's our season right there. Killed with in a month of footy.

 

[Eagleboy68]

Loss to Adelaide at home has bitten us hard.
We would sit in the top 4 now.

We rely on teams above us losing.

Richmond could beat Sydney. They are a bit of a bogey side for them.

Port could beat Adelaide being a showdown who knows.

Lions against geelong?? Anything can happen with sides trying to finish the year on a high note.

Best chance for us is to beat hawks and Adelaide and build massive self belief and win it from 5th being the first to do so in the current finals format.
We travel all the time and know how to deal with it and seem like we have timed our form perfectly?

We know from this year we haven't been far off beating top 4 sides on the road and we weren't playing well then.

Looking forward to the next 3 weeks.

 

[ConcreteWaters]

We're not going to make it, but top 6 might not be too bad this year. A week off, a home final, then we have to travel two weeks to make it to the big dance. If we're lucky we get Geelong or the Dogs away from their home grounds at the 'G' in the semi. Prelims can go either way (two out of three Hawks premierships were on the back of very close shaves against the Crows and Port). I think with the week off before finals, the 5th and 6th teams are in no worse position than the teams that lose the QF, it's just a different order of away finals.

 

[eaglespremiers]

We're not going to make it, but top 6 might not be too bad this year. A week off, a home final, then we have to travel two weeks to make it to the big dance. If we're lucky we get Geelong or the Dogs away from their home grounds at the 'G' in the semi. Prelims can go either way (two out of three Hawks premierships were on the back of very close shaves against the Crows and Port). I think with the week off before finals, the 5th and 6th teams are in no worse position than the teams that lose the QF, it's just a different order of away finals.

Dogs aren't making the four from here.

 

[ep2018]

From memory it's one win from two means we likely finish seventh. Two wins would mean we finish sixth.

Anything higher than that relies on unlikely results happening that are out of our control.

Having said that though Richmond are all over the Cats today.

We could even fall behind the dogs in 7th even if we win our last two, depending on whether the dogs will boost their % beyond ours with Essendope and a flaccid freo to come. 16 wins and 7th makes me feel really uncomfortable.

 

[Suma Magic]

5th/6th would be awesome.

Can't see us beating the crows. Best hope is the dogs losing I suppose.

 

[eaglespremiers]

We could even fall behind the dogs in 7th even if we win our last two, depending on whether the dogs will boost their % beyond ours with Essendope and a flaccid freo to come. 16 wins and 7th makes me feel really uncomfortable.

We'd have to only just win both games and then they'd have to have two 20 goal wins in a row for the percentage to be made up.

 

[The_Eagles]

Damn, it felt like 'destiny was in our own hands' if we could bowl over Hawthorn and Adelaide.. but it's looking remote. Still, I'll be glued to the TV and app these last 2 weeks in hope..

 

[Gizza]

Oddly enough I think the Hawks actually have the highest chance of dropping out. Their form hasn't been absolutely amazing this year and the Pies have been playing some pretty decent footy. They've got the lowest percentage.

Our best chance I think is Pies beating the Hawks and North beating GWS. But perhaps Adelaide losing the Showdown could happen.

 

[The_Eagles]

Oddly enough I think the Hawks actually have the highest chance of dropping out. Their form hasn't been absolutely amazing this year and the Pies have been playing some pretty decent footy. They've got the lowest percentage.

Our best chance I think is Pies beating the Hawks and North beating GWS. But perhaps Adelaide losing the Showdown could happen.

My first thought was Hawks have highest chance of dropping out, but 3 losses in 4 games for the all-conquering Hawthorn...Nah

 

[Gizza]

My first thought was Hawks have highest chance of dropping out, but 3 losses in 4 games for the all-conquering Hawthorn...Nah

It might not be a good chance. But I still think it's more likely than Swans, Adelaide or Geelong.

 

[dajesmac]

We could even fall behind the dogs in 7th even if we win our last two, depending on whether the dogs will boost their % beyond ours with Essendope and a flaccid freo to come. 16 wins and 7th makes me feel really uncomfortable.

True. I think we'd be okay on that front but you're right it is possible. And wow, yes, 16 wins at 7th is utterly bizarre. We had 16 wins and a draw last year.

I think we'll be 7th with 15 though.

 

[ep2018]

If we finish 7th I hope North do us a favour and beat GWS in the last round at Etihad. Would give us a better chance of beating GWS in their first finals campaign than Dogs at the MCG.

 

[boondy]

Cant make top 4 even if we win both games .
Then we need to win 4 away games to be premiers .