List Mgmt. The possibility of needing to bottom out

[KermitJagger]

That last point is not right. The pies and cats sides are primarily based on good drafting.

Really? Explain to me why the majority of their recent early draftees are absolute busts then? They certainly have an element of being based on good drafting, but it's drafting in the latter part of the draft and not the early part. The majority of their recent first round picks are either not playing or not at the club, and their success has been on trading in needs.

Collingwood on the other hand have the following guys who have been traded in:

Treloar
Crisp
Greenwood
Roughead
Beams (classes as a trade in now)
Will Hoskin-Elliott
Adams
Howe

 

[lethalselbow]

Personally i think the thread title of "bottom out" is silly. Not going to happen, or needs to happen. Some more list turn over needs to happen and back in some of the youth.

Lots of retirements at the end of this year will bring the average age down, but it's who you replace them with.

The injury to Mitchell was the biggest set back, disrupting our entire starting 22. However, we should have had extra midfield depth.

 

[lethalselbow]

Did I miss the 100point thrashings this thread surely needs to be credible?

Three players in AA contention last year.

Bottoming out is a strategy to maximise things when you are already there. we arent.

Bottoming out is a crazy/silly strategy. Some things need to change, however.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

No need to bottom out.
The team is playing with a lack of confidence. Fox that and we will be fine

 

[A Cut Above]

Wanting to finish as low as possible for a good pick is so gutless, I can't even...

If our present form keeps up we'll bottom out this year intended or not.

Its also worth remembering clubs can influence their ladder position by deciding to trade or use picks, not by wanting to drop games. Trading for established stars buys short-term buoyancy whereas going to the draft means long-term investment. Trading out veterans speeds up the rebuild process, as we did with Mitchell, Lewis & Hodge.

If we have a raft of retirements as expected the club will be pressured to trade picks for mature talent and it'll be interesting to see which way they go. Bringing in mostly kids taken with 3rd and 4th rounders in recent years has hurt our depth of young talent which is why a lot of us want to see the club go back to the draft. That doesn't mean we want the club to deliberately drop games.

 

[lethalselbow]

No need to bottom out.
The team is playing with a lack of confidence. Fox that and we will be fine

Hopefully. Do need to fix it soon.

Think the game plan stinks, a little. Looks too conservative and you have to wonder how much the players would enjoy it.

Seriously, how well has our backline held together this year? It's the middle of the ground... and the forward line which stinks.

 

[Flag08]

Really? Explain to me why the majority of their recent early draftees are absolute busts then? They certainly have an element of being based on good drafting, but it's drafting in the latter part of the draft and not the early part. The majority of their recent first round picks are either not playing or not at the club, and their success has been on trading in needs.

Collingwood on the other hand have the following guys who have been traded in:

Treloar
Crisp
Greenwood
Roughead
Beams (classes as a trade in now)
Will Hoskin-Elliott
Adams
Howe

Yes really. The blokes you have listed are the top ups. The core of the side is built around: De Goey, Elliot, Stephenson up front, Pendles, Sidey and Grundy in the middle and Moore, Langdon, Maynard down back. All draftees.

 

[OnTheRocks]

Wanting to finish as low as possible for a good pick is so gutless, I can't even...

You play the players you believe will be part of your next flag, you try to win every game, and you take the pick you get the end. If its pick 4,iys pick 4.if its 10, its 10

Some ******* rubbish I'm reading here...

Pretty sure that's Clarkos way of thinking too. Having listened to his presser, there might be quite a few let go at seasons end.

 

[Hawkers Heroes]

Honesty all I want for the 22 on the field is to wear the Hawthorn jumper with pride and play like it's their last game. At the moment it looks like the players are going through the emotions and it doesn't look good for us as supporters and for future FA's.
I don't care if we get hammered playing all the younger kids but we have to try something.
Bottoming out is not the answer but at least try the kids who want to be at the Hawthorn Football Club.
Remember it's a team effort.

 

[Bugs1977]

A lot of you have probably already seen what what method we should take to move forward with our list rebuild. Some have been supportive of it and some not and that is fine. For those of you that haven't read what path I think we should undertake it is basically to keep on blooding our youth (Cousins, Lewis, Moore, Jones, CJ etc) which would more than likely result in a lower ladder position for us due to the extremely tough draw we have from here on out and with us sitting on 3-4 with the hardest games to come. I would much rather us not bottom out which is why I'm not totally against us writing this season off which if were all really honest with ourselves was done when Mitchell had his leg broken. I'll reiterate that this is only my opinion on what I think we should do and it is obviously not what Clarkson and Co will do.

I'm not sure how many of you follow the draft and who is up for grabs but there are 2 predicted generational talents in Noah Anderson and Matthew Rowell up for grabs both of whom are predicted to be above or at the same class of Sam Walsh. The fear I have is that by doing the honourable thing and finishing just outside the 8 then we'll miss out on either of those players leaving them for the likes of the Swans, Roos or even worse Carlton who would then have to pass that pick onto the Crows.

Now I'm not sure how many of you follow the NBA but for those of you that do you probably know this story well. Cast your mind back to the 1996-97 season where the San Antonio Spurs franchise player David Robinson broke his foot and missed the whole season which resulted in them finishing with the worse record in the league that year. Having the worse record also resulted in them getting the 1st pick in the draft and in turn the ability to pick the best college player available. The player they picked was a generational talent called Tim Duncan. Since drafting Duncan the Spurs have never missed the playoffs for 22 years and in that time have won 5 championships (1999*, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2014). *After finishing last in the league they went on to win the championship a couple of seasons later which is what I envision us doing.

Now before anyone gets their knickers in a knot and says that AFL and basketball are two different sports and blah blah blah yes I am quite aware of this however the main point I am trying to make here is that the situation the Spurs faced similar to ours. Both teams are at a crossroads in regards to list age and both have been dealt season ending injuries to their main star player. From memory Alastair Clarkson who has visited and learned off some of the best coaches in the world at some point spent some time with Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich.

Finally assuming we secure Coniglio and others in the offseason along with the return of Tom Mitchell I would fully expect us to be back in the hunt in 2020. The result of having one down season would also gift us an easier draw which we haven't had for well over a decade and although is not the be all end all would definitely assist in the 2020 team setting up their season. The other thing to think about is that if Coniglio was to resign with GWS then having that next generational talent to help Tom and JOM would be unbelievable. I don't want the Hawthorn Football Club being perennial losers or worse finishing just outside the 8 like Richmond used to do for so long which is why I am not against us having one down year.

 

[Xtreme]

Wanting to finish as low as possible for a good pick is so gutless, I can't even...

You play the players you believe will be part of your next flag, you try to win every game, and you take the pick you get the end. If its pick 4,iys pick 4.if its 10, its 10

Some ******* rubbish I'm reading here...

I never ever want to lose on purpose, we finish on the ladder wherever we finish due to the hard work that is put in throughout the seaon.

As long as every player puts in 100% in training, on game day that's all you can ask for.

I do not want to have miserable years ala Carlton and Melbourne due to "tanking", Hawthorn doesn't and will never tank!

 

[Spursfan]

Yes really. The blokes you have listed are the top ups. The core of the side is built around: De Goey, Elliot, Stephenson up front, Pendles, Sidey and Grundy in the middle and Moore, Langdon, Maynard down back. All draftees.

I don't understand this need to differentiate between draftees and 'top up' players traded in ? you're either a key player or you're not regardless of how you get on the list. I would argue Beams/Treloar/Adams are just valuable as Sidebottom/Pendlebury and Howe/Crisp are just as good if not better than Langdon/Maynard ie they are just as much 'core' players as the guys drafted.

 

[Roddy]

To me it's just part of the story/the ebb and flow of running a highly successful football club. We had a period of glorious success, and then inevitable occurred, several 'once in a generation' players retired or moved on to get a retirement package elsewhere, so we experience a few lean years while we re-build. We have a genius at the helm who has built us into a premiership winning force not once but twice, if he sticks around for another 4-6 years I have NO doubt he can do it again. This is how it works, it doesn't happen in the blink of an eye, it is simply not worth whining, sooking and gnashing your teeth about it.

 

[BobHawk]

Interesting read. As many have noted it is not a question of bottoming out but rather of using draft picks rather than trading them away. If we continue on the current trajectory we will finish bottom eight anyway so a critical decision is getting ready for next season and giving as much game time as possible to the kids. Naturally, this will mean that we finish at the lower end of the ladder. It also means that some of the older brigade will be under pressure (this should be the case right now anyway). I don't think it means long term rebuild either. My personal opinion is that the club has traded heavily in the past few post seasons and sacrificed good picks culminating in the Wingard trade which included trading Burton. IMO this was a big call for the club and was due to the pressure of losing out on Lynch and Shiel. I bet Wright would like to go into a trade without such high expectations for a change.

But I digress. I don't think the club can keep chasing big names without replenishing the list with draft picks. This seems to create a strategy where we are perpetually chasing quality trades to keep up with attrition of ageing players. I don't think that is sustainable and it becomes less sustainable as our best players get even older as we move further away from our successful era. We have been very fortunate this century with two once in a generation players (Mitchell & Hodge) being supplanted by (primarily) the 2004 draft where we picked up two key forwards (Rough & Buddy) plus Jordan Lewis. Trades filled the gaps and even then after losing Croad in 2008 we couldn't get it done until we picked up Brian Lake to fill Croad's spot. This took 5 years.

Anyway, another way to look at it is Collingwood in 2005. They didn't bottom out but an ordinary season resulted in them picking up Pendlebury and Thomas in one draft. I know people have argued that Collingwood tanked but I am not using this example for that reason & do not want to entertain discussion along those lines. I have stated previously that young players coming into the system in this era are much more professional, more developed and in many cases ready to go which dramatically reduces development time. This needs to be a consideration too.

 

[Davo-27]

every year for the past 4 years has been the same

step 1 - we back in our veterans
step 2 - they let us down
step 3 - we blood a handful of young talent
step 4 - the young talent revitalises us to a point we make finals
step 5 - we lose finals

for 4 years the same exact things happen or we dont make finals, during this time we have unearthed Sicily, Hardwick and Worpel (Burton as well) to a lesser extent Howe and Morrison.

ive tried being positive so far this season, but im tired of what is happening, if it was up to me i would play for the future from right now

B: Hardwick, Brand, Mirra
HB: Henderson, Sicily, Impey

C: Scully, Shiels, Morrison
R: McEvoy, JOM, Worpel

HF: Wingard, Gunston, Walker
F: Breust, Lewis, Ross

INT: Scrimshaw, Koschitzke, Cousins, Minchington

EMER: Miles, Jones, Moore

now IF you are playing players that are going to play in our next premiership, this is how you do it.

 

[Hawkers Heroes]

every year for the past 4 years has been the same

step 1 - we back in our veterans
step 2 - they let us down
step 3 - we blood a handful of young talent
step 4 - the young talent revitalises us to a point we make finals
step 5 - we lose finals

for 4 years the same exact things happen or we dont make finals, during this time we have unearthed Sicily, Hardwick and Worpel (Burton as well) to a lesser extent Howe and Morrison.

ive tried being positive so far this season, but im tired of what is happening, if it was up to me i would play for the future from right now

B: Hardwick, Brand, Mirra
HB: Henderson, Sicily, Impey

C: Scully, Shiels, Morrison
R: McEvoy, JOM, Worpel

HF: Wingard, Gunston, Walker
F: Breust, Lewis, Ross

INT: Scrimshaw, Koschitzke, Cousins, Minchington

EMER: Miles, Jones, Moore

now IF you are playing players that are going to play in our next premiership, this is how you do it.

I would swap Gunners and Lewis.
Backline just looks a little slow for my liking tho.
But all in good work and thinking.

 

[lethalselbow]

every year for the past 4 years has been the same

step 1 - we back in our veterans
step 2 - they let us down
step 3 - we blood a handful of young talent
step 4 - the young talent revitalises us to a point we make finals
step 5 - we lose finals

for 4 years the same exact things happen or we dont make finals, during this time we have unearthed Sicily, Hardwick and Worpel (Burton as well) to a lesser extent Howe and Morrison.

ive tried being positive so far this season, but im tired of what is happening, if it was up to me i would play for the future from right now

B: Hardwick, Brand, Mirra
HB: Henderson, Sicily, Impey

C: Scully, Shiels, Morrison
R: McEvoy, JOM, Worpel

HF: Wingard, Gunston, Walker
F: Breust, Lewis, Ross

INT: Scrimshaw, Koschitzke, Cousins, Minchington

EMER: Miles, Jones, Moore

now IF you are playing players that are going to play in our next premiership, this is how you do it.

Aren't Walker and Kozi in and off the injury list, currently. Need an uninjured game or two before you bring them in.

You're a harsh critic to have a crack at the 2016 going for the 4-peat. Sheesh!

 

[Davo-27]

Aren't Walker and Kozi in and off the injury list, currently. Need an uninjured game or two before you bring them in.

You're a harsh critic to have a crack at the 2016 going for the 4-peat. Sheesh!

im not having a crack, im telling the truth....

 

[RoughysMullet]

Use a top 10 pick on a gun mid/pressure forward that can make an immediate impact.. another year to get used our system for Scully and Wingard (play Wingard high half forward for Christ sake), recruit Cogs and Patton + get Tom Mitchell back, we are back to top 4 IMO.

Won’t bottom out- this year could be bottom 6 however if we don’t improve fast..

 

[Flag08]

Interesting read. As many have noted it is not a question of bottoming out but rather of using draft picks rather than trading them away. If we continue on the current trajectory we will finish bottom eight anyway so a critical decision is getting ready for next season and giving as much game time as possible to the kids. Naturally, this will mean that we finish at the lower end of the ladder. It also means that some of the older brigade will be under pressure (this should be the case right now anyway). I don't think it means long term rebuild either. My personal opinion is that the club has traded heavily in the past few post seasons and sacrificed good picks culminating in the Wingard trade which included trading Burton. IMO this was a big call for the club and was due to the pressure of losing out on Lynch and Shiel. I bet Wright would like to go into a trade without such high expectations for a change.

But I digress. I don't think the club can keep chasing big names without replenishing the list with draft picks. This seems to create a strategy where we are perpetually chasing quality trades to keep up with attrition of ageing players. I don't think that is sustainable and it becomes less sustainable as our best players get even older as we move further away from our successful era. We have been very fortunate this century with two once in a generation players (Mitchell & Hodge) being supplanted by (primarily) the 2004 draft where we picked up two key forwards (Rough & Buddy) plus Jordan Lewis. Trades filled the gaps and even then after losing Croad in 2008 we couldn't get it done until we picked up Brian Lake to fill Croad's spot. This took 5 years.

Anyway, another way to look at it is Collingwood in 2005. They didn't bottom out but an ordinary season resulted in them picking up Pendlebury and Thomas in one draft. I know people have argued that Collingwood tanked but I am not using this example for that reason & do not want to entertain discussion along those lines. I have stated previously that young players coming into the system in this era are much more professional, more developed and in many cases ready to go which dramatically reduces development time. This needs to be a consideration too.

Agree with all that. The Wingard trade is going to set our rebuild back a couple of years. Oh well, they will realise that and change tactics soon.

 

[lethalselbow]

im not having a crack, im telling the truth....

The truth about the 2016 side? Missing a prelim by a kick, etc, etc. Teams lose finals, from time to time. Nothing wrong with the 2016 crack.

2017+, maybe you have a case, but to have a crack at the 2016 4-peat effort, i think you are completely full of crap or should ring Clarkson and tell him you know better.

 

[grumbleguts]

For me it's all about our forwards. Otherwise our list holes seem fillable, eg Cogs, Brody.

What the hey are we doing with our forward line? It already is bad, and we're likely losing most of: Roughead, Burgoyne, Puopolo, Schoenmakers. Even adding Patton, and having him stay miraculously fit, we're still a wreck.

Do we even have enough current depth to field seven players in 2020, even without any injuries? It barely feels like it.

Breust, Gunston, Wingard, Lewis
Ceglar, Moore, Nash

Depth: Mitchington

Yet to debut: Hanrahan, Ross, Walker

Ffs we are absolutely abysmal, and have no real hope at development of even decent draft picks to competitive level/age before Gunston and Breust age out. We're facing complete annihilation here.

So Breust, Gunston, Wingard are our good core. Ceglar can't currently get a game due to poor form. Lewis and Moore look good but have less than five games each. Nash tries but isn't ready yet. Having Lewis, Nash, and Moore locked in best 22 for the entire 2020 season (without any other meaningful depth) is just going to be agony.

Every year since 2015 we dip four players into depth, sometimes five. We have a terrible best 7 and then a depth of one. Imagine resting two of those first four names... hot trash. The only depth player with even 1 game experience is Mitchington, a St K reject - who hasn't played a game for us and so far hasn't played a game at all for two years.

As it is we'll be relying on kids to play full seasons. Nobody gets dropped on bad form. Nobody gets to rest because of a niggle... VLF depth being called up due to injury. Even with Hanrahan and Walker managing to debut and taking a fantastic debut half season load, we're still playing 3+ gassed kids each week. No wonder Wingard has bad body language.

Maybe pray Puopolo stays on 1 year, keep Schoenmakers a year, and swing Mirra forward? Pretty garbage non solutions. TOB, Glass, Miles forward? Clutching at straws here.

How did Clarko let us get to this?

Apart from a KPF, we need to pick up 3-4 more 20yo+ players to have any hope at contending 2020-2022. We need to trawl every delisted player and find a few even C graders.

Its trade or die.

Gave a like for "what the hey"

 

[grumbleguts]

Anyone who thinks the draft is the key to premierships must spend a fortune on lottery tickets.

 

[Davo-27]

The truth about the 2016 side? Missing a prelim by a kick, etc, etc. Teams lose finals, from time to time. Nothing wrong with the 2016 crack.

2017+, maybe you have a case, but to have a crack at the 2016 4-peat effort, i think you are completely full of crap or should ring Clarkson and tell him you know better.

i agree 2016 was an exception where we went for the 4peat, but i was more talking about our list management during/after the 2016 season, maybe i should make that clear.

 

[lethalselbow]

i agree 2016 was an exception where we went for the 4peat, but i was more talking about our list management during/after the 2016 season, maybe i should make that clear.

All good. Just wanting to clarify. 2016 had to be as it was

2017+ hasn't been as good as can be.