The race for the top 4

[ScrewInStuds]

And small forwards are massive in finals. I still think it is a major weakness for Sydney that could cost them.

Our mids are pretty effective when resting as small forwards (McVeigh, Parker, Jack, & McGlynn are all very solid up front) which frees up an extra midfield rotation and also makes match ups more unpredictable for the opposition. I think this is of more benefit to our gameplan than having a specialist small forward, particularly when Buddy is also good below his knees and capable of generating a lot of forward defensive pressure.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

And small forwards are massive in finals. I still think it is a major weakness for Sydney that could cost them.

Parker doing alright, but when you compare to Freo port and hawthorn how have two gun small forwards each it does look like a short coming

 

[KillaKanga]

Parker doing alright, but when you compare to Freo port and hawthorn how have two gun small forwards each it does look like a short coming

Lindsay Thomas and Boomer '20th Season' Harvey go alright.

oh this is a thread for top 4, nevermind. Maybe next year

 

[QuietB]

Parker doing alright, but when you compare to Freo port and hawthorn how have two gun small forwards each it does look like a short coming

Parker is a gun. But he is more midfielded/forward than out and out small forward.

Really? I've always seen them as the type that goes missing.

See Milne, Davis, Ballantyne last year. It's an unforgiving position in a big final.

I think it's a time when goal kicking midfielders generally decide who wins. Last year it was a bit of an anomaly with Lake and Gunston being the best two on ground.

It is not just the role of kicking goals. My personal view is that the Swans have too much tall timber up forward and opposition teams might be able to waltz the ball out when it hits the ground. Buddy provides excellent pressure. Reid doesn't. Tippett doesn't. Goodes is losing mobility. Sydney are going with a mark it or bust strategy. Who was the last tall forward to kick a bag in a grand final?

Our mids are pretty effective when resting as small forwards (McVeigh, Parker, Jack, & McGlynn are all very solid up front) which frees up an extra midfield rotation and also makes match ups more unpredictable for the opposition. I think this is of more benefit to our gameplan than having a specialist small forward, particularly when Buddy is also good below his knees and capable of generating a lot of forward defensive pressure.

Your mids are undoubtedly good goal kickers - but rarely from roving packs.

 

[clogged]

It is not just the role of kicking goals. My personal view is that the Swans have too much tall timber up forward and opposition teams might be able to waltz the ball out when it hits the ground. Buddy provides excellent pressure. Reid doesn't. Tippett doesn't. Goodes is losing mobility. Sydney are going with a mark it or bust strategy. Who was the last tall forward to kick a bag in a grand final?

Fair point - I see what you mean.

Gunston was very good last year, and Hawkins was dominant in 2011. But for the most part, the day of a key forward dominating in a big final is rare.

 

[FrancisX]

Parker is a gun. But he is more midfielded/forward than out and out small forward.



It is not just the role of kicking goals. My personal view is that the Swans have too much tall timber up forward and opposition teams might be able to waltz the ball out when it hits the ground. Buddy provides excellent pressure. Reid doesn't. Tippett doesn't. Goodes is losing mobility. Sydney are going with a mark it or bust strategy. Who was the last tall forward to kick a bag in a grand final?



Your mids are undoubtedly good goal kickers - but rarely from roving packs.

That's not what I saw with them against Geelong... I think the crumbing was as good as the marking around the ground.

 

[QuietB]

That's not what I saw with them against Geelong... I think the crumbing was as good as the marking around the ground.

I have that game on the ignore list. Just like the Sydney loss to GWS is on the ignore list. There is nothing worth taking from either of those games. In both instances one side didn't show up.

 

[FrancisX]

I have that game on the ignore list. Just like the Sydney loss to GWS is on the ignore list. There is nothing worth taking from either of those games. In both instances one side didn't show up.

Fair enough - guess we will see how this all unfolds finals time

 

[Dan87]

I don't think Longmire and match committee find it easy to include small forwards on game day. Every small forward is a spot that a resting midfielder does not have I suspect is part of the thinking. McGlynn was a specialist small forward, not significantly below ballantyne, Puopolo in any stat and was touch and go towards the end of last year before he evolved into a mid/forward.

I don't have the stats on me, but Sydney have traditionally been very good at goals from stoppages in fwd 50 i.e. roving goals in congestions, it was our bread and butter for quite a while.

small forwards need to be damn good and play through the midfield otherwise it puts further pressure on the MIDs IMO.

Not a weakness.

 

[Membling]

The effectiveness of a small forward is really determined by the match up. If you have a small defender able to mitigate a small forward then it doesnt really matter. It also depends on the structure employed by the team. If it is a more zonal structure then a small forward becomes more effective. If it is more congested and two way running then midfielders tend to become small forwards in transition

 

[JZTIME!]

And small forwards are massive in finals. I still think it is a major weakness for Sydney that could cost them.

Leon Davis and Hayden Ballyntine beg to differ

 

[QuietB]

Leon Davis and Hayden Ballyntine beg to differ

And Akermanis, Stevie Johnson and Chapman beg to differ with them.

 

[JZTIME!]

And Akermanis, Stevie Johnson and Chapman beg to differ with them.

Just pointing out that missing a small forward isnt that big of a deal, structure can stay the same. If its your only small forward then yes but most finals sides would have a couple

 

[QuietB]

I don't think Longmire and match committee find it easy to include small forwards on game day. Every small forward is a spot that a resting midfielder does not have I suspect is part of the thinking. McGlynn was a specialist small forward, not significantly below ballantyne, Puopolo in any stat and was touch and go towards the end of last year before he evolved into a mid/forward.

I don't have the stats on me, but Sydney have traditionally been very good at goals from stoppages in fwd 50 i.e. roving goals in congestions, it was our bread and butter for quite a while.

small forwards need to be damn good and play through the midfield otherwise it puts further pressure on the MIDs IMO.

Not a weakness.

I agree Sydney are very good at scoring goals from stoppages. Sydney clearly are very good from stoppages full stop and the tall forwards are no doubt instructed to create a stoppage if they do not mark it.

It is a stark contrast between the Hawks and Swans.

 

[QuietB]

Just pointing out that missing a small forward isnt that big of a deal, structure can stay the same. If its your only small forward then yes but most finals sides would have a couple

And that's my point, Sydney do not have a couple. They have midfielders playing as forwards.

 

[JZTIME!]

And that's my point, Sydney do not have a couple. They have midfielders playing as forwards.

Mcglynn, Jack and Parker are more than adept in that role and give more than most small forwards as mids so its actually a strength of theirs, harder to lock down

 

[Run n Spread]

Got a feeling there could be a surprise this year. Could a team outside the top 4 do it? Say Hawthorn or Geelong miss and hit 5th i reckon that's very possible or Collingwood or Port regain early season form and have an all mighty peak in September and a favourable run with well matched opponents and just have a good GF and their opponent a horror. More unlikely then likely but it has been that sort of year and if it was going to happen this would be the year for it.

As for the actual end of round 23 top 4 all teams in the top 8 seem to play each other from here so the crucial games speak for themselves. I've got Sydney, Freo, Geelong, Hawthorn spat out on a predictor but change 1 or 2 results and it looks totally different. Will be interesting.

 

[footy75]

Got a feeling there could be a surprise this year. Could a team outside the top 4 do it? Say Hawthorn or Geelong miss and hit 5th i reckon that's very possible or Collingwood or Port regain early season form and have an all mighty peak in September and a favourable run with well matched opponents and just have a good GF and their opponent a horror. More unlikely then likely but it has been that sort of year and if it was going to happen this would be the year for it.

As for the actual end of round 23 top 4 all teams in the top 8 seem to play each other from here so the crucial games speak for themselves. I've got Sydney, Freo, Geelong, Hawthorn spat out on a predictor but change 1 or 2 results and it looks totally different. Will be interesting.

good to see someone back on topic... I agree, Port will come good and North wont lose much more. I can see the Hawks slipping out. I will take that back IF they can beat Sydney.

 

[bombermick]

Fair point - I see what you mean.

Gunston was very good last year, and Hawkins was dominant in 2011. But for the most part, the day of a key forward dominating in a big final is rare.

The last 3 grand finals have had a dominant performance from a tall. Not sure it is as rare as many believe.

 

[Pegasaur]

Got a feeling there could be a surprise this year. Could a team outside the top 4 do it? Say Hawthorn or Geelong miss and hit 5th i reckon that's very possible or Collingwood or Port regain early season form and have an all mighty peak in September and a favourable run with well matched opponents and just have a good GF and their opponent a horror. More unlikely then likely but it has been that sort of year and if it was going to happen this would be the year for it.

As for the actual end of round 23 top 4 all teams in the top 8 seem to play each other from here so the crucial games speak for themselves. I've got Sydney, Freo, Geelong, Hawthorn spat out on a predictor but change 1 or 2 results and it looks totally different. Will be interesting.

Every year there is always the thought of "Could a team from outside the 4 win it?" Tbh I believe that this year it is less likely than previous years, in 2011 Carlton were just as strong as West Coast and finished 5th because one of the top 5 had too, 2012 West Coast were in the top 4 for a majority of the year and everyone new they had a chance to beat anyone at their best, Geelong was Geelong had they not played us who knows what would have happened and we had won 8 of our last 9 (or something around that) and just about had Adelaide if not for Tex's destructive second half and us running out of puff in the end. Last year I can remember a bunch of people talking up both Richmond and Collingwood as being the teams that could win it from outside the 4, they both one a stack of games and in Collingwood's case were finals veterans.

My point is that every year there always seems to be talk of "Could this be the year a team from outside the 4 wins it?" But this year, if anything, has a bigger gap between the top few teams (Sydney, Hawthorn, Freo) than most years and with a high likelihood of travel for the 5-8 teams I just can't see any team that finishes outside the top 4 being able to get past the semi (and definitely not a prelim).

 

[bradrowe#32]

Geelong has a good fixture - Giants, North, Freo, Carlton, Hawthorn, Geelong - but I can't see them winning the flag.

 

[apollo_creed]

Geelong has a good fixture - Giants, North, Freo, Carlton, Hawthorn, Geelong - but I can't see them winning the flag.

Are they playing home or away in the last round? Could make a difference.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Every year there is always the thought of "Could a team from outside the 4 win it?" Tbh I believe that this year it is less likely than previous years, in 2011 Carlton were just as strong as West Coast and finished 5th because one of the top 5 had too, 2012 West Coast were in the top 4 for a majority of the year and everyone new they had a chance to beat anyone at their best, Geelong was Geelong had they not played us who knows what would have happened and we had won 8 of our last 9 (or something around that) and just about had Adelaide if not for Tex's destructive second half and us running out of puff in the end. Last year I can remember a bunch of people talking up both Richmond and Collingwood as being the teams that could win it from outside the 4, they both one a stack of games and in Collingwood's case were finals veterans.

My point is that every year there always seems to be talk of "Could this be the year a team from outside the 4 wins it?" But this year, if anything, has a bigger gap between the top few teams (Sydney, Hawthorn, Freo) than most years and with a high likelihood of travel for the 5-8 teams I just can't see any team that finishes outside the top 4 being able to get past the semi (and definitely not a prelim).

the team outside the 4 has to face history which not only suggest winning a flag is not a real possibility but shows making a GF and even a prelim from outside the 4 is statistically close to impossible

 

[Bobby_]

And if you lose you're one game ahead (assuming we both win next round) with a worse percentage and a much tougher draw, but that's ok we're clearly no chance to make the top four

no chance now.

 

[QuietB]

I think top 4 is done. Just need to settle the order.