Rumour The Rumour Mill 2013 (trade and draft related)

[dogwatch]

Did i hear correct that John Butcher has been delisted? Surely he's worth a look butchers.

 

[Reptilia]

I think Crameri would be good for the development of Jones. You could argue that Crameri would get the number one defender sometimes thus allowing Jones more freedom and able to gain more confidence in AFL games.

 

[paulveed]

I raised this a week or so ago. Most responses were that Crameri didn't want the Dons to get zilch for his departure (which is very honourable - like Ward allegedly got a 3rd rounder trade for Sam Reid to go with him to GWS) but what about his new club? Surely he'd want his new club to have the best chances possible going forward, meaning if we can keep pick 22 and get a good 18yo as well as getting Crameri we will be that much more competitive. So I'm not sure I buy that line.

Has anyone considered the possibility that the Dogs have said we will give you a $1.8m or $2m deal over 4 years (more than he would get at Windy Hill) ONLY IF you agree to walk via the breach of contract option. We'll still trade for you if you aren't prepared to do that but you'll only get $1.6m (or whatever). Seems unlikely and is unMacca-like but could explain why Crameri is being offered overs for his worth (IMO).

Re the PSD: I can understand why someone with as much currency as Crameri would want to avoid the PSD, given we only have 4th pick. He could end up somewhere he doesn't want to be and didn't expect.

The thing with the PSD though is that while in theory 3 other teams have picks before us, how often do you see every or even a majority of teams taking picks in the PSD.
Usually the majority have filled their senior list prior to this draft.
I for one would be surprised for instance if GWS will participate at all. They will only be looking for top shelf type players, and my guess is they will have a full list already before the PSD.
That would leave at worst 2 teams with picks prior to us, and even that could well be an over estimation.

 

[Maddog1980]

You may well be right but Crameri has maybe only 5 good years left in him (let's assume he declines around 30-ish) whereas a new recruit that takes maybe 2 years to hit consistent form worthy of a regular senior place has say 10 good years left in him after that. So (simplistically) he would have twice the productive shelf-life of Crameri.

The other factor to weigh up is what are the chances in this year's draft of plucking a player at pick 22 who would be (a) considerably better than Crameri and (b) considerably worse? Let's say Crameri is ranked in the top 25% of AFL players right now. I'd say the chances of getting a better player at pick 22 are about 20-30%. The chances of getting a player about the same are also 20-30% and the chances of getting a worse one are about 50%. (Obviously this assessment might change if you have a better insight into the depth of the draftees than I have.)

So it becomes a question of do we take an untried player who has a 50% chance of not being as good as Crameri (but maybe a 25% chance of being better in the long run) AND who has 5-7 more years shelf-life than Crameri? Or do we go with the known ability and qualities of Crameri but with a use-by date of around 2018?

This will no doubt be influenced by thoughts of when our premiership window will be prised open. If we are thinking 2015 or 2016, Crameri may be worth it. I'm happy enough to go with what the club decides as long as it's for no more than pick 22, but my natural inclination is more with TK and 100action ... to work through the draft unless there's a great bargain to be had.

Less the 2 years that Crameri will get rubbed out for therefore 3 years of playing time. The risk vs reward is far too much. We're a joke if we trade anything for him. If there was zero chance he would get rubbed out for drug cheating then i might be willing to see us part with pick 22.

 

[Maddog1980]

So over all the talk about trading for Crameri or anyone from Essendon. At least the Patton discussion provides somthing different. Hoever if we are going to trade pick 4 and a player it should be for Boyd/Pick 1 not for an injury prone player especially coming off a knee reco.

 

[doggies ftw]

So over all the talk about trading for Crameri or anyone from Essendon. At least the Patton discussion provides somthing different. Hoever if we are going to trade pick 4 and a player it should be for Boyd/Pick 1 not for an injury prone player especially coming off a knee reco.

I think we would all love pick 1 but lets be honest, its not happening, Patton is the next closest thing so either we take the risk on him or we try something different but its not just a simple matter of choosing between Boyd or Patton.

 

[Maddog1980]

Pick 4 is an almost guaranteed 200 game player. Patton I'm not so sure. Yes he is a big forward, has done a knee recently, had other issues with his knees and shoulders. Will Patton play 200 games? Not on his current run rate.

Stick with pick 4 and lock in a gun player for the next 10 years.

Pick 4 - Low risk / High Reward
Patton - High risk / Very High reward

Pick 4 for me any day of the week.

 

[EASTWESTDOGS]

Rumor i was told today by a guy at work who is mates with Joe Misiti was that Crameri was going to say yes to the dogs deal but now the bombers have gone from a 2 year deal to a three year deal is going to stay at the bombers. Take with a grain of salt he swears that crameri loves the bombers and doesn't want to move.

 

[timtamWB]

Pick 4 is an almost guaranteed 200 game player. Patton I'm not so sure. Yes he is a big forward, has done a knee recently, had other issues with his knees and shoulders. Will Patton play 200 games? Not on his current run rate.

Cale Morton and Richard Tambling like this.

There are no almost guarantees in drafting. There is a higher likelihood, but I wouldn't say that it's almost guaranteed 200 games.

 

[scooter600x]

Forget about the psd. Players taken in the psd can't train with their new club until nearly Christmas and we all know what happens to guys with poor pre-seasons. We will be wanting him at training day 1

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Pick 4 is an almost guaranteed 200 game player. Patton I'm not so sure. Yes he is a big forward, has done a knee recently, had other issues with his knees and shoulders. Will Patton play 200 games? Not on his current run rate.

Stick with pick 4 and lock in a gun player for the next 10 years.

Pick 4 - Low risk / High Reward
Patton - High risk / Very High reward

Pick 4 for me any day of the week.

yeah that doesn't really make sense - Patton was a number ONE draft pick so even more 'guaranteed' but...

 

[Nath09]

Cale Morton and Richard Tambling like this.

There are no almost guarantees in drafting. There is a higher likelihood, but I wouldn't say that it's almost guaranteed 200 games.

Lets not forget Tim Walsh...or maybe we should...

 

[timtamWB]

Lets not forget Tim Walsh...or maybe we should...

I didn't include him due to his injuries. Whereas Morton and Tambling are just spuds.

 

[dogwatch]

Forget about the psd. Players taken in the psd can't train with their new club until nearly Christmas and we all know what happens to guys with poor pre-seasons. We will be wanting him at training day 1

Unless Maddog1980 is right and Crameri cops a ban of anything up to 2 years. Then we won't need him to clock on until pre-season 2016, assuming the suspension is over by then (depends when it starts).

 

[NthBondiDoggies]

Any more news on the rumor Hurley wants out? Mate in Melb - very unreliable - reckons it was his mum who had a go at the bombers. Hardness (if he can stay on the track) would be a great Mooney like add for Jones.

 

[Zgope1]

Just on Crameri, as i've said before, I am super keen. I've seen a fair bit of him and rate him very highly, I'm sure Mccartney would want him to develop his game further and put him into the midfield as a wrecking ball which would be huge.

I also remember a time where we lost Aker, Hall, Johnno and Hill and thought we'd still be ok because we had an intact midfield. What i neglected was how many goals our footy team lost in a short space of time. I didn't even mention Hahn, Eagleton or Higgins who could all put them through. How much these losses killed us to me has been a major defence of mine for Macca. Our list lost a hell of a lot of goals, AND a hell of a lot of games which definitely had its effects.

Now we've made a slow but healthy transition where our top 4 or 5 leading goalkickers are mainly babies- albeit with much less goals than the group before them. They are lead by Gia however who is on the way out and was still a 35+ goalkicker this year.

If we get Crameri it will seriously reduce the pain from when Gia goes. It just can't be underestimated how important he is to us. Another reason i don't want to lose JJ because he was developing into a big driver for us which we'll need for when Murphy goes.

 

[Rocketsurgery]

Rumor i was told today by a guy at work who is mates with Joe Misiti was that Crameri was going to say yes to the dogs deal but now the bombers have gone from a 2 year deal to a three year deal is going to stay at the bombers. Take with a grain of salt he swears that crameri loves the bombers and doesn't want to move.

If that's true. How can anyone wanna stay at a club that injected him with all sorts of rubbish and kept no record of what was injected or side effects. They committed a major breach of medical ethics putting people's well being in danger. And yet, he loves the club and wants to stay. If that was me I'd wanna be out of there in a heartbeat. There's still a nasty smell hanging over this drug saga. Would not surprise if the players knew exactly what they got, knew they were illegal and still agreed to it. Why else would you show so much loyalty to a club that put you in harms way? I guess time will tell how much he still loves the club.

 

[LukasTheGreat]

All this talk of Patton being injury prone is Rediculous, should we be offering Clay Smith one year contracts from here on out? He has done an ACL after all...

 

[Leezorr]

Brendan Goddard and Rob Murphy both did knees, clearly they don't deserve contracts either.

 

[who_let_the_dogs_out]

Someone posted in the Patton thread said his contacts at the club say Patton was in for a medical yesterday... Can anyone shed any light on this?

It doesn't add up for mine, how can a contracted player outside of trade week be attending another club's medical evaluation?

 

[ThirdLegUp]

Someone posted in the Patton thread said his contacts at the club say Patton was in for a medical yesterday... Can anyone shed any light on this?

It doesn't add up for mine, how can a contracted player outside of trade week be attending another club's medical evaluation?

If both GWS and Patton agree to a possible trade elsewhere, there is nothing stopping a contracted player from being traded. The player would definitely not be doing this without his clubs knowledge. Thus it appears GWS must be sure of getting Buddy, And Patton would take that as his cue to look for better opportunities. It is really only a KPP who could do this, as anyone else would have to compete to get into any side regardless. However Patton being a KPF, he would be very aware that many sides in the league would have him starting 18 no problem, so why stay at a club where you will suddenly go from being prime target to 3rd-4th in line,over night.

 

[Reptilia]

Someone posted in the Patton thread said his contacts at the club say Patton was in for a medical yesterday... Can anyone shed any light on this?

It doesn't add up for mine, how can a contracted player outside of trade week be attending another club's medical evaluation?

I live right around the corner from the club.. i realy should put a camera somewhere or drive past more to see if i see these things.

 

[who_let_the_dogs_out]

If both GWS and Patton agree to a possible trade elsewhere, there is nothing stopping a contracted player from being traded. The player would definitely not be doing this without his clubs knowledge. Thus it appears GWS must be sure of getting Buddy, And Patton would take that as his cue to look for better opportunities. It is really only a KPP who could do this, as anyone else would have to compete to get into any side regardless. However Patton being a KPF, he would be very aware that many sides in the league would have him starting 18 no problem, so why stay at a club where you will suddenly go from being prime target to 3rd-4th in line,over night.

If Patton is indeed undergoing a medical then Buddy to Giants would have to be a done deal.

There's just something strange about the whole thing. Hopefully the club doesn't do anything silly and trade pick 4 and a player.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

If Patton is indeed undergoing a medical then Buddy to Giants would have to be a done deal.

Not necessarily.

In this whole situation, people seem to forget Tomlinson. While often hidden in Cameron's shadows, the kid is an absolute gun and a perfect third tall.

In addition, Patton and Boyd are quite similar players and I'm not entirely sure that you can play both of them in the same team.

Patton has had injury setbacks and will likely start next year behind Boyd, Tomlinson and Cameron, and thus they risk him lowering further in value. If GWS do indeed intend to take Boyd (which they'd be crazy not to), trading Patton is not as bad an idea as people make it out to be.

 

[Fossie 32]

If that's true. How can anyone wanna stay at a club that injected him with all sorts of rubbish and kept no record of what was injected or side effects. They committed a major breach of medical ethics putting people's well being in danger. And yet, he loves the club and wants to stay. If that was me I'd wanna be out of there in a heartbeat. There's still a nasty smell hanging over this drug saga. Would not surprise if the players knew exactly what they got, knew they were illegal and still agreed to it. Why else would you show so much loyalty to a club that put you in harms way? I guess time will tell how much he still loves the club.

Interesting......
like the username