Autopsy The Stats Don’t Lie: VicBIAS By The Numbers - An Empirical Analysis

[demondavey]

Fair enough, but Port are hardly the worst culprits and it’s not what is up for discussion here anyway. Start a new thread maybe?

He won’t talk about Victorian clubs the same way.

 

[underthestars]

How is this even a debate? Victorian teams - the big ones - play far more games in their home state than non-victorian teams. teams like collingwood and richmond and melbourne get to know the ground on which every grand final is played and every victorian final - meaning there is always a big advantage come grand final day for these teams. they get the big marquee games to grow their brand, they get the unconscious bias on the field by officials who are emotional beings like us all - meaning big calls more often fall in their favour. none of this is debatable except by the ignorant or the troll. the interstate teams you could argue have a better chance to make the lower fringe of the eight due to genuine home ground avantage during the year. that is it. in approximate order the comp favours collingwood, richmond, melbourne, geelong, followed by west coast, brisbane, adelaide, sydney, port, freo, hawks, carlton and essendon move much higher up the bracket when they are enjoying a few strong years as they get more mcg games scheduled, and less travel. then you have the fodder - gws, suns due to low crowd support, and the victorian fodder who get slotted in to a schedule where the afl has holes left after all the marquee clubs have been placed - st kilda, bulldogs, north.
Now look at the premiership ladder since the afl created the docklands stadium in 2000 and moved the unwilling teams there, bribing carlton and essendon with far better deals than the three fodder teams.
vic-bias? Since that first 2000 final only one mcg tenant has lost a grand final to an interstate or non-mcg tenant.

 

[Freomaniac]

Because Adelaide have a strong financial position thanks to being the first afl team established in Sa?

It’s not that complicated.

you should be happy with your current situation in the last 10 seasons. Sure no Port flag, but you have won 5 finals in the last 10-12 years.

If you want a worse situation than Ports, you can barrack for Gold coast, or worse, Fremantle.

 

[Freomaniac]

How is this even a debate? Victorian teams - the big ones - play far more games in their home state than non-victorian teams. teams like collingwood and richmond and melbourne get to know the ground on which every grand final is played and every victorian final - meaning there is always a big advantage come grand final day for these teams. they get the big marquee games to grow their brand, they get the unconscious bias on the field by officials who are emotional beings like us all - meaning big calls more often fall in their favour. none of this is debatable except by the ignorant or the troll. the interstate teams you could argue have a better chance to make the lower fringe of the eight due to genuine home ground avantage during the year. that is it. in approximate order the comp favours collingwood, richmond, melbourne, geelong, followed by west coast, brisbane, adelaide, sydney, port, freo, hawks, carlton and essendon move much higher up the bracket when they are enjoying a few strong years as they get more mcg games scheduled, and less travel. then you have the fodder - gws, suns due to low crowd support, and the victorian fodder who get slotted in to a schedule where the afl has holes left after all the marquee clubs have been placed - st kilda, bulldogs, north.
Now look at the premiership ladder since the afl created the docklands stadium in 2000 and moved the unwilling teams there, bribing carlton and essendon with far better deals than the three fodder teams.
vic-bias? Since that first 2000 final only one mcg tenant has lost a grand final to an interstate or non-mcg tenant.

Like you care lol

How many flags has the dockers, suns and giants have won?

 

[underthestars]

Like you care lol

How many flags has the dockers, suns and giants have won?

freo have at least seen a grand final played on their home ground. pity they failed to grab that once in a lifetime chance. but i do feel for them, doomed to a st kilda like existence, yet with only one neighbour to compete with? now that's poor. they rank below gws for success already, soon the suns will pass them by, then tassie. and in difty years i'll be looking at the saints sole flag and think, well, it could have been worse...

 

[Freomaniac]

freo have at least seen a grand final played on their home ground. pity they failed to grab that once in a lifetime chance. but i do feel for them, doomed to a st kilda like existence, yet with only one neighbour to compete with? now that's poor. they rank below gws for success already, soon the suns will pass them by, then tassie. and in difty years i'll be looking at the saints sole flag and think, well, it could have been worse...

As stated.... If the dockers had the same admin under the Ross Lyon coaching era of 2012-19 back when we 1st started in 1995, dockers would of had more finals success.

I wouldn't of said dead certain to win a flag from 1995-2023, but I will say this, had Freo been 10-15 better in certain seasons, freo would of made more finals.

It's not the lack of flags that hurt. It's the lack of (back to back) finals to me. The lack of periods Freo didn't make finals for 2 or 3 years in a row. Ross Lyon era of 2012-5 is the only time Freo made finals for at least 2 years in a row.

Such as winning one more cle game in 1997, means dockers would of got 8th in 1997 and lost to top placed saints in a qualifying final.

As I said, I would trade our win vs port in round 23 in 2014 in exchange to beat Port on round 22 , 2005. That means Port would of missed out on a finals spot in 2005 and Freo got in that finals spot instead. That means back to back finals in 2005-6. That means dockers finished 5th in 2014, but I don't care.

Beating Essendon in docklands in 2021 would of got Freo 8th as well. That means back to back finals in 2021-22 as well.

I'm not to fussed about GWS playing more preliminary finals than Freo.

I want Freo to at least back to back 5th to 8th placed finishes before even thinking of contending for a flag.

It would take a bit for gold coast to surpass Fremantle's finals success. The sun's need to win a final 1st.

Tassie? They need to set up their team well to be decent in the long term. When the 20th side comes in, history shows interesting results on certain non Vic sides when they start.

Swans went to Sydney in 1982, struggled at 1st and made finals in 1986-7.

West coast and Brisbane came to the comp in 1987. The 1st decade of both sides could not be different.

Eagles wins 2 flag from 3 grand finals with excellent local WAFL talent.

Brisbane struggled to make finals until 9 years in.

Crows came in 1991, made finals in 1993, flags in 1997-8.

Freo came in 1995, took them until 2003 to make finals.

Port came in 1997, had that run from 2001-5 with a 2004 flag to top that off.

When Tassie comes in 2028 and Canberra comes in 2029, one team will be successful in the 1st 10 years, the other one will struggle.

 

[Freomaniac]

freo have at least seen a grand final played on their home ground. pity they failed to grab that once in a lifetime chance. but i do feel for them, doomed to a st kilda like existence, yet with only one neighbour to compete with? now that's poor. they rank below gws for success already, soon the suns will pass them by, then tassie. and in difty years i'll be looking at the saints sole flag and think, well, it could have been worse...

Also I will say this.... Saints fans would love to have someone pump up money to turn Moorabbin oval into a decent stadium to hold 30-35,000 seats like Geelong cats Kardinia park.

Would give the saints a home ground advantage.

Had Carlton not become a powerhouse and not won as many flags as they have, would you think they would love Princes park done up to 30-35,000 seat capacity and play 6-9 games a year there? Absolutely.

 

[underthestars]

we would love to play games at moorabbin. the afl wouldn't.

 

[Freomaniac]

we would love to play games at moorabbin. the afl wouldn't.

Of course you would. If that means a stand out Home ground advantage like the old pre 1986 VFL era, of course you would want that.

funny as it would cost only 100 million to turn Moorabbin into an afl standard venue.

 

[Freomaniac]

How could no flags be a statistical possibility? Had the results in those games been reversed an interstate team still would have won

What about the 15 years before 2006 how many interstate teams won the flag then? 92, 94, 97, 98, 01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06 - oh wow looks like a lot of interstate sides winning flags, I guess Vicbias didn't exist between the years 92-2006?

The sooking is hilarious especially when you consider some all time teams have won flags since 2007 - Cats, Hawks and Tigers sharing 11 flags between them.

so... Collingwood beat Brisbane in the 2023 AFL grand final.

So since 2007-2023, only Sydney in 2012 and Eagles of 2018 are the only non vic sides to win a flag.

Also no grand final between 2 non vic sides has occured since 2006.

 

[Proud New Father of 3]

Regarding the video - unless you're going to examine what the free kicks are actually for, and whether or not the decisions were fringe calls, quoting free kick stats are irrelevant. Using free kicks as a metric for favourable umpiring has long been debunked.

How many free kicks were for our of bounds on the full? Or deliberate out of bounds? Are these "biased" calls? How many were objectively bad decisions?

Also, for the most part, the Victorian media (and the interstate media from what I can tell) when referencing favourable umpiring, doesn't use total free kick count. It might be used to reinforce a position, but it is very rarely talked about. It's mainly football nuffs that bring it up.

 

[RUNVS]

I think of the last 17 Grand Finals 15 have been won by Victorian teams tells you all you need to know.

It is like saying "well 30 of the last 31 Australian Prime Ministers have been men, that is just pure luck, and you never know, the next 15 Prime Ministers could be women to even it all out"

 

[Old Man Jenkins]

Because Adelaide have a strong financial position thanks to being the first afl team established in Sa?

It’s not that complicated.

Your club have been constantly on the receiving end of bad karma ever since stabbing South Australia in the back.

Chokers, dream final, 119, tarps, crippling debt etc.

Let me guess, it's the SANFL's fault that Port Adelaide have been in a weak financial position over the years?

 

[philthy05]

Your club have been constantly on the receiving end of bad karma ever since stabbing South Australia in the back.

Chokers, dream final, 119, tarps, crippling debt etc.

Let me guess, it's the SANFL's fault that Port Adelaide have been in a weak financial position over the years?

Your insane rants time and again after your bullshit gets proven to be nothing more than a crazy sad man with an agenda have become comical.

I can picture a caricature cartoon little old man waving his fist with your words.

 

[Freomaniac]

Royal Commission/Operation Heartland. How many times does this have to be explained?

good point...

Why Victorian clubs can't win

www.brisbanetimes.com.au

 

[longdonkey]

How about the tribunal

Maynard - knocks out player finishes his career - gets off on a technicality plays finals
Houston - knocks out player - gets 5 games will play no finals

Was Maynard playing the difference that got them over the line in some of those tight games?

Will Houston not playing be the difference in the finals for Port?

 

[ibd77]

Was unfair umpiring an outcome of the 2007 AFL investigation into non Victorian flags?

There was other Danky factors affecting that season.

 

[ibd77]

Let me guess, it's the SANFL's fault that Port Adelaide have been in a weak financial position over the years?

facts are facts.

 

[longdonkey]

Get ready to see VicBias in all its glory at the tribunal this week. No way will they let Pickett miss trial Games and the first month of next season.

 

[longdonkey]

In fact we are seeing it already in the media who were happy to hanged, drawn and quartered Houston with outrage and disgust and quotes like the worst hit of the year (ah remember Webster). Meanwhile the same turds floating in the cistern of the media are coming up with every excuse under the sun for Pickett.

All despite Houston not hitting Rankine high while Pickett has hit Moore high and there has been the same outcome.

It's a disgrace and Port should take the AFL to court. Oh that's right the AFL own Port - Guess that's not going to happen . RIGGED.

 

[Freomaniac]

Where's our vic bias then?

Its not Vic Bias anymore... Not when the 2024 grand final happened.

The trend and vibe now is North Bias.

Not being Bias towards North Melbourne but Bias Towards the Nsw and Queensland clubs.

 

[Freomaniac]

Get ready to see VicBias in all its glory at the tribunal this week. No way will they let Pickett miss trial Games and the first month of next season.

Its not Vic Bias anymore....

Its North Bias.

North Bias is being Bias towards the NSW and Queensland clubs.

So According to the AFL, This is their prefered teams they want Success.

1. Northern States Clubs. So GWS Giants, Gold Coast suns , Brisbane and Sydney.

2. Victorian sides with big fan bases or teams that play home games at the MCG in Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Richmond, Hawks, Demons

3. Geelong as they are more profitable getting 35,000 in Kardinia than docklands tenants.

4. Docklands tenants like Saints, Bulldogs and Kangaroos. They could get 20-25,000 a home games but cant make money due to massive rent Prices. Crazy that the Cats Get more profits in getting 35,000 at Kardinia than 55,000 at docklands.

5. WA clubs. Eagles get 50,000 on average on a sunday arvo. Dockers get 35-40,000 on sunday arvo.

6. SA clubs despite Both clubs getting at least 35,000 at adelaide oval home games minimum. Mind you, If the people that runs the AFL Saw the bay 13 poo fight threads, they will do everything in their power to prevent either SA clubs in making a grand final.




When Tassie comes into the AFL, I am unsure where they will be ranked.


Papa G you are right..... SA and WA clubs dont even get the sloppy 2nds or even the sloppy 3rds in the AFL bedroom. lol

 

[longdonkey]

Its not Vic Bias anymore....

Its North Bias.

North Bias is being Bias towards the NSW and Queensland clubs.

So According to the AFL, This is their prefered teams they want Success.

1. Northern States Clubs. So GWS Giants, Gold Coast suns , Brisbane and Sydney.

2. Victorian sides with big fan bases or teams that play home games at the MCG in Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Richmond, Hawks, Demons

3. Geelong as they are more profitable getting 35,000 in Kardinia than docklands tenants.

4. Docklands tenants like Saints, Bulldogs and Kangaroos. They could get 20-25,000 a home games but cant make money due to massive rent Prices. Crazy that the Cats Get more profits in getting 35,000 at Kardinia than 55,000 at docklands.

5. WA clubs. Eagles get 50,000 on average on a sunday arvo. Dockers get 35-40,000 on sunday arvo.

6. SA clubs despite Both clubs getting at least 35,000 at adelaide oval home games minimum. Mind you, If the people that runs the AFL Saw the bay 13 poo fight threads, they will do everything in their power to prevent either SA clubs in making a grand final.




When Tassie comes into the AFL, I am unsure where they will be ranked.


Papa G you are right..... SA and WA clubs dont even get the sloppy 2nds or even the sloppy 3rds in the AFL bedroom. lol

Be sure the AFL would have been banking on a Carlton v Collingwood Grand Final this year but sometimes injuries and stuff get in the way.
The entire Academy thing was put in place by the AFL to decrease the number of Vic players going to the northern states so the Vic clubs would be stronger not to make the northern clubs stronger. Its a massive miss by the AFL and they try letting the other clubs have Academies as well to counter it. So you now have David Rodan's kids being eligible for Essendon under Academy rules while he is father/son for Port. And at the same time you have the Camporeale twins going to Carlton despite never living in Vic and the same thing happened to Luke McCabe's son.

The entire drafting system is a massive dogs breakfast and is getting a joke and equalisation is not possible with all the side rules to help certain states or clubs.

I'm starting to think that not being able to trade first round picks would be a good thing and if a team picks somebody in the first round there is no matching and the player goes to the team that choose him whether they are academy or father/son. That's the only way there can ever be equalisation.

 

[Freomaniac]

Be sure the AFL would have been banking on a Carlton v Collingwood Grand Final this year but sometimes injuries and stuff get in the way.
The entire Academy thing was put in place by the AFL to decrease the number of Vic players going to the northern states so the Vic clubs would be stronger not to make the northern clubs stronger. Its a massive miss by the AFL and they try letting the other clubs have Academies as well to counter it. So you now have David Rodan's kids being eligible for Essendon under Academy rules while he is father/son for Port. And at the same time you have the Camporeale twins going to Carlton despite never living in Vic and the same thing happened to Luke McCabe's son.

The entire drafting system is a massive dogs breakfast and is getting a joke and equalisation is not possible with all the side rules to help certain states or clubs.

I'm starting to think that not being able to trade first round picks would be a good thing and if a team picks somebody in the first round there is no matching and the player goes to the team that choose him whether they are academy or father/son. That's the only way there can ever be equalisation.

Solid post.

I wont deny the drafting and trading and free agency system is flawed.

But the Academy rules when they 1st started. In the early 2000s when Brisbane and Sydney won flags.

The main reason why they were started was to help Develop NSW and Queenland hopefuls into AFL draftees.

You are a Port Supporter. If you want to draft local talent, you look at the SANFL.

I am a dockers fan, I want local talent, I look at the WAFL.

Victorian sides have the VFL and that TAC up or under 18s cup or country league to look at local talent.

When tassie comes in, theyhave the Tassie State league.

If Northern Territory comes in, they look at the NTFL.

 

[longdonkey]

Solid post.

I wont deny the drafting and trading and free agency system is flawed.

But the Academy rules when they 1st started. In the early 2000s when Brisbane and Sydney won flags.

The main reason why they were started was to help Develop NSW and Queenland hopefuls into AFL draftees.

You are a Port Supporter. If you want to draft local talent, you look at the SANFL.

I am a dockers fan, I want local talent, I look at the WAFL.

Victorian sides have the VFL and that TAC up or under 18s cup or country league to look at local talent.

When tassie comes in, theyhave the Tassie State league.

If Northern Territory comes in, they look at the NTFL.

Strangely Hinkley doesn't seem to be too interested in SANFL. He brought in a development coach from Country Vic and we get a lot of players from country Vic. We do occasionally do get SANFL players in the mid-season draft (twice) the other time we got Narkle.

I would welcome zoning rules to come back in. Given half of SA I would expect Port to get a lot right, maybe not under this regime but generally.