The US Presidential Election Thread

[Ichiro #51]

I agree with both your scenarios broadly.

Edit; above meant to be a reply to Chad.

Regardless of the outcome of this election, I don’t think there will ever be (or at least not for a very long time) a turning of the page on trumpism. It wouldn’t surprise me in the course of Trump aging and eventually dying, that the tech dudes use some kind of AI generated Trump to lead the base.

 

[Chadwiko]

Harris giving a very good speech so far, has to be said.

 

[Swallow_Wood]

Trumps gonna win it.

His utilisation of the anti-woke tech bro/comedy/faux intellectual community will get him over the line with white boys all over being sucked in by the show.

 

[tricknologist]

What are people’s thoughts on the MAGA movement surviving post Trump? Will there be a return to a more traditional Republican Party or will MAGA continue to be a big part of their identity?

It's difficult to say because, while much of MAGA revolves around Trump, it isn't purely about him. It's a reflection of shifts in the American right over the past two decades where various far right sentiments have taken hold (you could also see this as a broader global trend). The central issue wrt the viability of MAGA is that the US is still deeply polarised. Consistent electoral failures can push parties towards the centre so that they become politically viable again (e.g. the Democrats did this post-Reagan and Bush), which could happen to the Republicans if they lose enough times (and thus kill MAGA). But polarisation might prevent that from happening, especially because the margins in the last couple US elections have been razor thin. If the Republicans lose but only marginally so, they might not feel the need to moderate much at all, thus preserving MAGA.

It's also worth pointing out that, despite rampant doomerism, the American economy has performed very well under Biden. If Harris wins and the Democrats continue that trend, they might be able to lock the Republicans out of office for a considerable amount of time purely on the basis of a well functioning economy (they're certainly better positioned to provide that than a bunch of right wing culture warriors hopped up on populism). But that also depends on overcoming the vibes of voters, which can be difficult especially when polarisation is so deep.

It'll be here for quite a while though if Trump wins, which is concerning for a variety of reasons.

 

[Val Keating]

Isn't his model thing that he has a friendly chat and shoots shit about stuff. He isn't into cross examining people. (Not that I've even watched anything he's done for years. But that's how it was.)

Yep.

 

[The Warlord]

Trumps gonna win it.

His utilisation of the anti-woke tech bro/comedy/faux intellectual community will get him over the line with white boys all over being sucked in by the show.

But will they actually show up and vote? Hmmmmmmmmmm.

 

[The Warlord]

Brutal

 

[Chadwiko]

Just an absolutely monster, monster crowd. Massive.

 

[Swallow_Wood]

But will they actually show up and vote? Hmmmmmmmmmm.

Yeah, we'll see. Vote for the continued lolz and the further infantilisation of democracy.

 

[Ichiro #51]

It's difficult to say because, while much of MAGA revolves around Trump, it isn't purely about him. It's a reflection of shifts in the American right over the past two decades where various far right sentiments have taken hold (you could also see this as a broader global trend). The central issue wrt the viability of MAGA is that the US is still deeply polarised. Consistent electoral failures can push parties towards the centre so that they become politically viable again (e.g. the Democrats did this post-Reagan and Bush), which could happen to the Republicans if they lose enough times (and thus kill MAGA). But polarisation might prevent that from happening, especially because the margins in the last couple US elections have been razor thin. If the Republicans lose but only marginally so, they might not feel the need to moderate much at all, thus preserving MAGA.

It's also worth pointing out that, despite rampant doomerism, the American economy has performed very well under Biden. If Harris wins and the Democrats continue that trend, they might be able to lock the Republicans out of office for a considerable amount of time purely on the basis of a well functioning economy (they're certainly better positioned to provide that than a bunch of right wing culture warriors hopped up on populism). But that also depends on overcoming the vibes of voters, which can be difficult especially when polarisation is so deep.
It'll be here for quite a while though if Trump wins, which is concerning for a variety of reasons.

Thank you for your detailed reply.

I agree with your point about Trump and Maga being a reflection of the polarisation of American society. I do think Trump is only one who could’ve stoked the passion to level it has reached.

I also think the Republicans will never go back to the Judge Whitey image. While there are a lot of rich, white folks that are getting richer, they’re relatively fewer than ever before. The Republicans need the huge number of mostly lower class people that make up Maga. It’s reached the stage where MAGA and Trump ( or Trumpism) will be nigh on impossible for them to shake.

 

[The Warlord]

Yeah, we'll see. Vote for the continued lolz and the further infantilisation of democracy.

Among citizens ages 18-64, a higher proportion of women than men have turned out to vote since the mid-1990s when the Census began collecting this data. The gender gap tends to be particularly large among voters ages 18-44.

Gender Differences in Voter Turnout

Voter turnout refers to the proportion of eligible voters who cast a ballot in an election. Women have registered and voted at higher rates than men in every presidential election since 1980, with the turnout gap between women and men growing slightly larger with each successive presidential...

cawp.rutgers.edu

The girlies are super motivated to vote coz Roe v Wade and women tend to be more organised and socially competent.

I can't remember where I saw it, but the Harris campaign had some tool to identify the Girl In The Group Who Gets The Others Out To Vote, like physically makes them register then drives them to the polling place.

Because that person is effectively worth 5-10 votes.

The boys will post, and tweet and say, and claim etc etc they're all for Trump. Will they HAUL ASS down to the polling place to actually vote?

Nah.

 

[Dan]

Jimmy Kimmel shouldn’t throw stones

View attachment 2154074

By far the biggest sell out of all the late night hosts on television.

I wonder what the ‘Man Show’ version of Jimmy would think of the 2024 version.

 

[Dan]

That’s a bit precious from Joe.

Harris is jetting all over the place campaigning, to go to Austin for a three hour sit down basically takes a day out of the campaign.

Austin is an amazing place but it’s out of the way.

But that reasoning doesn’t apply to Trump? If he can do a 3 hour podcast why can’t she?

#excuses

 

[Chadwiko]

The boys will post, and tweet and say, and claim etc etc they're all for Trump. Will they HAUL ASS down to the polling place to actually vote?

Nah.

Unfortunately that's pre-2020 thinking.

When 95% of voting occurred in-person and on election day, it was valid and correct. But after 2020 with the wide roll-out of postal voting, absentee ballots, and pre-election day voting, that's no longer the case.

It didn't pan out in 2020 because Trump and the Republicans were idiots and rallied against it, insisting that their supporters should only vote in-person on election day. It probably cost him the election. (and resulted in this great song, tbh)

This time around though MAGA aren't making the same mistake again, and they're advocating hard for their base to vote early, vote by mail, vote however they want to.

It's going to be really interesting to see in the wash-up what the impact is. My fear is that it will push Trump over the line. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[tricknologist]

To be fair, there are some factors that likely benefitted the Republicans in 2020. For example, the Republicans conducted door knocking campaigns whereas the Dems refused to due to COVID. That won't be an issue this time, which could produce better results for the Dems.

 

[Chadwiko]

To be fair, there are some factors that likely benefitted the Republicans in 2020. For example, the Republicans conducted door knocking campaigns whereas the Dems refused to due to COVID. That won't be an issue this time, which could produce better results for the Dems.

The other factor to be considered; the vast majority of preventable Covid deaths were Republicans.

 

[Dan]

I agree with both your scenarios broadly.

Edit; above meant to be a reply to Chad.

Regardless of the outcome of this election, I don’t think there will ever be (or at least not for a very long time) a turning of the page on trumpism. It wouldn’t surprise me in the course of Trump aging and eventually dying, that the tech dudes use some kind of AI generated Trump to lead the base.

View attachment AIparrot_1730262677678.mp4

 

[The Warlord]

 

[blackshadow]

But that reasoning doesn’t apply to Trump? If he can do a 3 hour podcast why can’t she?

#excuses

Trump was already in Austin doing a campaign rally.

Then half his other rally walked out or fell asleep because Trump was three hours late. Really shows he cares for his supporters.

At least they weren't left stranded without busses because Donald doesn't pay his bills to working Americans.

 

[Dan]

Trump was already in Austin doing a campaign rally.

Then half his other rally walked out or fell asleep because Trump was three hours late. Really shows he cares for his supporters.

At least they weren't left stranded without busses because Donald doesn't pay his bills to working Americans.

If she wants to win, this is her chance to convince the undecided voters why they should vote for her.