The US Presidential Election Thread

[Makeshift Park]

Just quietly, I fear today is gonna be a write-off as far as my professional productivity goes.

Only so much brainspace you can dedicate to doing your job whilst furiously cycling through AP election results and Twitter with CNN and ABC coverage playing simultaneously.

 

[giantroo]

 

[Makeshift Park]

2024 presidential election live updates: Donald Trump wins Florida

Polls are starting to close in the 2024 Presidential election. Follow live updates from the AP on Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, results, electoral votes by state, voting issues, analysis and more.

apnews.com

The single most useful website for keeping track of US election results.

The map automatically updates with new results.

The majority of news services around the world use AP's election coverage as the basis of their own.

When AP calls a state, the TV and radio stations follow suit.

 

[Chadwiko]

 

[Chadwiko]

 

[Makeshift Park]

View attachment 2159218

Democrats would be happy with early results in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

If that continues, and Wisconsin joins them, the blue wall wins the election for the Democrats once again.

 

[The Warlord]

Shows what I know

 

[Hojuman]

Didn't think l'd take an interest, but stuck at home.
Big red Trump wall M.P. ?

Can Kamala get up from here ?

 

[Makeshift Park]

Didn't think l'd take an interest, but stuck at home.
Big red Trump wall M.P. ?

Can Kamala get up from here ?

I'm looking at all the outstanding votes in the suburbs of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, counties where Harris is leading Trump by a far bit, and absolutely she can.

Flipside is that its so close you can't discount something unexpected happening, like a typically blue Virginia going to Trump. (He's been performing unusually well there too)

Prediction wise... I'm sticking with my gut instinct from yesterday: that it'll take the best part of a week to figure out who won, but in the end Harris will have a slim victory.

 

[Ichiro #51]

I'm looking at all the outstanding votes in the suburbs of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, counties where Harris is leading Trump by a far bit, and absolutely she can.

Flipside is that its so close you can't discount something unexpected happening, like a typically blue Virginia going to Trump. (He's been performing unusually well there too)

Prediction wise... I'm sticking with my gut instinct from yesterday: that it'll take the best part of a week to figure out who won, but in the end Harris will have a slim victory.

The leads in Pennsylvania/Wisconsin/Iowa are flipping minute by minute. Seems after all the hoopla about the polls being rigged etc. they were pretty spot on. Tight as can be. The next week/month/ however long is going to be an absolute shitshow.

 

[DocSholl]

Looking good for Harris in Penn. Trump would want a bigger lead given its mostly the red counties that have been counted so far

 

[Makeshift Park]

The leads in Pennsylvania/Wisconsin/Iowa are flipping minute by minute. Seems after all the hoopla about the polls being rigged etc. they were pretty spot on. Tight as can be. The next week/month/ however long is going to be an absolute shitshow.

Yep. Selzer might not have been the canary in the coalmine after all. The closeness of the race is probably the worst result from an internal US security perspective.

Meanwhile, I'm a simple man so I just keep looking at these three maps of current vote trends and outstanding votes.

Wisconsin:



Michigan:


Pennsylvania:


Trump can win the other four swing states as decisively as he likes, and it won't matter so long as there's no unexpected losses from the other states and those suburban trends in these three states continue.

 

[the big lebowski]

Trump looks like he’ll win from here

Harris under performing amongst

• latinos
• black people
• young people

 

[DesertRoo]

Trump looks like he’ll win from here

Harris under performing amongst

• latinos
• black people
• young people

The Warlord, I know the election is way to early to call, but we've gone back and forwards about the main issues people will be voting on, I think the above would've mostly been affected by cost of living/inflation/economy issues, the democrats have really lost their base here.

 

[the big lebowski]

The Warlord, I know the election is way to early to call, but we've gone back and forwards about the main issues people will be voting on, I think the above would've mostly been affected by cost of living/inflation/economy issues, the democrats have really lost their base here.

Watching cnn all day the cost of living issue is the single biggest issue that seems to be hurting Harris.

Young men in particular are finding things too hard and are likely to see trump become president.

 

[the big lebowski]

There’s still a chance for Harris.
She’s down in 2/3 blue wall states but there is lots of votes to come in from major population centres.

Same with Georgia

But Harris is behind in these counts and will be relying on demographics that have let her down so far in the count

 

[Chadwiko]

Young men in particular are finding things too hard and are likely to see trump become president.

Despite the fact that his economic policies (if you can even call them that) will hurt them more than Kamala's.

So dumb.

 

[Makeshift Park]

Watching cnn all day the cost of living issue is the single biggest issue that seems to be hurting Harris.

Young men in particular are finding things too hard and are likely to see trump become president.

I'd wager that in my lifetime when conservative governments have won in any English-speaking western country, its been 9 times out of 10 because of economic issues, economic policy and perceived economic credentials.

(Occasionally something like an international conflict comes along that twists the narrative)

 

[the big lebowski]

Despite the fact that his economic policies (if you can even call them that) will hurt them more than Kamala's.

So dumb.

Makes as much sense to me as muslims protest voting against Harris only to see trump win.

Good luck Palestine with trump in charge

 

[the big lebowski]

I'd wager that in my lifetime when conservative governments have won in any English-speaking western country, its been 9 times out of 10 because of economic issues, economic policy and perceived economic credentials.

(Occasionally something like an international conflict comes along that twists the narrative)

You could argue that the last 2 elections will be decided against the incumbent (I’m counting Harris as the incumbent here) due to forces outside their control

Trump lost due to Covid

Harris loses due to inflation (that was a world wide phenomenon)

 

[tricknologist]

There's been a general backlash towards incumbents worldwide. Trump probably lost in 2020 due to that trend, but he'll probably benefit from it in this election. It also doesn't help that the vibes are so bad for the economy even though it's objectively performed well under Biden.

 

[The Warlord]

The Warlord, I know the election is way to early to call, but we've gone back and forwards about the main issues people will be voting on, I think the above would've mostly been affected by cost of living/inflation/economy issues, the democrats have really lost their base here.

Also the threat to democracy stuff not ringing true to them.

People remember Trump years as economic good times curtailed only by COVID

 

[Makeshift Park]

You could argue that the last 2 elections will be decided against the incumbent (I’m counting Harris as the incumbent here) due to forces outside their control

Trump lost due to Covid

Harris loses due to inflation (that was a world wide phenomenon)

Yeah but the flipside is that progressive parties are usually perceived to be better at managing health issues, hence Biden's win after more than a million people died of corona.

 

[Makeshift Park]

N Carolina called for Trump - AP and NYT

6 swing states to go

 

[The Warlord]

Despite the fact that his economic policies (if you can even call them that) will hurt them more than Kamala's.

So dumb.

The same people who voted for Brexit were those who would suffer.

The GOP mastered using cultural issues to get people to vote against their own economic interest decades ago.