Prediction The weekly (or daily) ladder predictor thread

[Philth]

It's nothing good. Best just pretend they don't exist.

Ten's of thousands of unread emails across multiple accounts. I don't know where to start.

Well at least plug your phone in a bit sooner next time!!

Battery critically low!!

 

[AuntyBlindEye]

Well at least plug your phone in a bit sooner next time!!

Battery critically low!!

Who do think I am? Superman?

 

[HTT]

I get us 3rd or 4th.

I actually don't mind. If we finish 4th, we'll beat the Cats.

If we finish 3rd, we travel. Maybe win, maybe not. If we don't, I reckon we meet the Cats in week 2 anyway. With the week break, I don't trust them to get the job done in the QF.

If we lose a QF, our SF would be against an EF winner, not the other QF loser...

 

[Elton Johns Wig]

If we lose a QF, our SF would be against an EF winner, not the other QF loser...

Yeah, just did that. Rookie error

 

[roacheee]

but part of me wouldn't mind a chance to lose a game just to re set before finals.

i wonder why we don't say
'i hope my surgeon has a bad day'
or
'gee i reckon my pilot is due for a loss'

keep us ebola/poo explosion free and i'll back us to win

 

[Michaels]

i wonder why we don't say
'i hope my surgeon has a bad day'
or
'gee i reckon my pilot is due for a loss'

keep us ebola/poo explosion free and i'll back us to win

Gee you have really nailed some comparable examples there...

 

[roacheee]

Gee you have really nailed some comparable examples there...

shows how stupid the whole 'we need a loss' thing is

we want professionals to fail, so that they can improve?

people only say that because they assume more motivation comes from losing than winning. they don't believe a team can have high motivation for extended periods just by winning alone

 

[Michaels]

shows how stupid the whole 'we need a loss' thing is

we want professionals to fail, so that they can improve?

people only say that because they assume more motivation comes from losing than winning. they don't believe a team can have high motivation for extended periods just by winning alone

It can help prevent complacency.

The sporting world is different to other regular environments.

Like I said, only if it didnt hurt our position.

Think of it this way, how many teams have gone on a 12 - 0 winning streak including finals?


But as it stands we are in a position where we have to keep winning to stay in the 4 anyway.

 

[TigersAlways]

We finish 4th and play Geelong away .... at the MCG .... delicious ..... and WIN

 

[JohnZ]

Would Richmond rather:
1) A QF in Perth with a guaranteed PF at the MCG or
2) A QF at the MCG with a potential PF in Perth?

 

[Truetiger]

I had a Richmond V Brisbane GF at the beginning of the season, put $150 on it and it is increasingly looking possible. Very excited.

Out of interest what’s the cash out amount?

 

[partycorolla]

Would Richmond rather:
1) A QF in Perth with a guaranteed PF at the MCG or
2) A QF at the MCG with a potential PF in Perth?

Well 1 doesn't gaurantee us a PF at the G, it only gaurantees us a SF at the G....

 

[HeadandShin]

Well 1 doesn't gaurantee us a PF at the G, it only gaurantees us a SF at the G....

Ok then ....

Would Richmond rather:
1) A QF in Perth with a guaranteed SF and likely PF at the MCG or
2) A QF at the MCG with a potential PF in Perth?

However a Lions win at the Gabba in 3 weeks will throw the cat amongst the pigeons.

 

[Tenacious T]

Can the ladder predictor predict if we play any one good above us?

 

[biaseddustyfan]

mine got us in 2nd vs west coke with gws in 4th

 

[yellowandblack21]

I reckon the key game for the whole top 4 is this weekend ... as much as it hurts to go for them the Blooze could really do us a favour this weekend and cause a boilover. Eagles drop one they shouldn't and we may just avoid that trip to Perth
(then run out of steam for the week after obviously)

 

[HTT]

I do the ladder predictor I get
1st Geelong 17-5
2nd-5th Richmond, West Coast, Brisbane, GWS 15-7/16-6, 115%+
6th Essendon 15-7 ~107%
7th Collingwood 13-9
8th Adelaide 11-11

Aside from 2-5 those are pretty much set in stone. Collingwood could jump Essendon if they knock them off in R23, but that doesn't matter anyway.
That middle is so close. There's 12 combinations from those 4 and any of them are feasible (though GWS 2nd is a stretch).

If we win out we finish top 4.
If it's only by a little bit each week, we come 4th
If we win by 50 for the next 2 and 30 for the last 2, we come 2nd
There's a bit in between that where we finish 3rd.

Brisbane v Geelong has some interesting effects

If Brisbane win, it reduces our chance of finishing 3rd as we'd then have to have a percentage between WC and Brisbane (while winning all 4). But it reduces our chance of finishing top 2 because we have to overtake both percentages.
If Geelong win, the percentage we need to overcome to make 2nd may be lower, but if we win all 4, and DON'T achieve the required percentage, we will be 3rd.

BUT It allows us to lose to WC and still finish 4th as long as we beat Brisbane. Means we'd need to chase a bit more percentage elsewhere though.

 

[BF Tiger]

Some not unreasonable results to see the Tigers finish top two...

Rd 21:
Lions beat Suns by (margin irrelevant)
Tigers beat Blues by 40 points
Eagles beat Crows by 30 points

Rd 22:
Cats beat Lions by 10 points
Tigers beat Eagles by 30 points

Rd 23:
Eagles beat Hawks by 20 points
Tigers beat Lions by 40 points

1st Cats
2nd Tigers
3rd Eagles
4th Giants (beating Hawks, Dogs and Suns)
5th Lions

 

[lvt06]

It can help prevent complacency.

The sporting world is different to other regular environments.

Like I said, only if it didnt hurt our position.

Think of it this way, how many teams have gone on a 12 - 0 winning streak including finals?


But as it stands we are in a position where we have to keep winning to stay in the 4 anyway.

I think in other years - even say 2018, that might've been the case.

I just think, the year we've had, the sheer numbers of players we have had out, we wont be approaching any game with complacent thoughts. Most people wrote us off, completely. That's the motivation.

 

[tunksy]

What a huge warm up for finals. Lions are a very different team to the one we have owned for years. Look hard to score against and their spread of goal kickers is decent. I think only the pies have beat them by over 30?

 

[Cotcho]

Looks like we need the Brions to either lose against the GC or smash them off the park and push their %age right up.

Looks a real shame that GWS beat the Swans on the weekend, That would have been very handy.

 

[TigerGod]

Some not unreasonable results to see the Tigers finish top two...

Rd 21:
Lions beat Suns by (margin irrelevant)
Tigers beat Blues by 40 points
Eagles beat Crows by 30 points

Rd 22:
Cats beat Lions by 10 points
Tigers beat Eagles by 30 points

Rd 23:
Eagles beat Hawks by 20 points
Tigers beat Lions by 40 points

1st Cats
2nd Tigers
3rd Eagles
4th Giants (beating Hawks, Dogs and Suns)
5th Lions

Obviously there is a typo there... Tigers beat Blues by 40 points AND Tigers beat Lions by 40 points.
You've left a zero out, Tigers beat Blues by 400 points

 

[BF Tiger]

Obviously there is a typo there... Tigers beat Blues by 40 points AND Tigers beat Lions by 40 points.
You've left a zero out, Tigers beat Blues by 400 points

If that was likely I'd be looking at other results to make the Tigers finish first.

 

[TigerTime_89]

		W	L	D	%
1.	Geelong	17	5	0	131.0%
2.	West Coast	17	5	0	118.3%
3.	Richmond	15	7	0	114.2%
4.	Brisbane Lions	15	7	0	113.9%
5.	GWS	14	8	0	119.2%
6.	Collingwood	12	10	0	108.6%
7.	Essendon	12	10	0	99.5%
8.	Port Adelaide	11	11	0	107.0%
9.	Adelaide	11	11	0	106.7%
10.	Western Bulldogs	11	11	0	95.6%
11.	Hawthorn	10	12	0	102.5%
12.	North Melbourne	10	12	0	98.7%
13.	Fremantle	10	12	0	94.8%
14.	St Kilda	9	13	0	85.3%
15.	Sydney	7	15	0	94.3%
16.	Carlton	7	15	0	85.4%
17.	Melbourne	7	15	0	82.7%
18.	Gold Coast	3	19	0	64.8%

QF1: GEELONG v Brisbane Lions
QF2: West Coast v RICHMOND
EF1: GWS v PORT ADELAIDE
EF2: COLLINGWOOD v Essendon

SF1: BRISBANE LIONS v Port Adelaide
SF2: WEST COAST v Collingwood

PF1: Geelong v WEST COAST
PF2: RICHMOND v Brisbane Lions

GF: West Coast v RICHMOND

 

[_RT_]

For us to finish top 4:

- Pies to lose one of their last 3 games

If Pies win out and we drop one our first final would likely be against Port at the MCG

If the Pies lose one and:

Us Lions & WCE lose one each then we play Geelong week 1
Us Cats & WCE lose one each then we play Lions/Eagles away week 1
We win out while Cats Lions & Eagles lose one each then we play Geelong week 1
We win out and Cats lose 2 then we play Lions/Eagles away week 1
We win out and Eagles/Cats lose 2 then we host Geelong at MCG week 1