To Ablett or not to Ablett.

[GmeUP]

Ablett/Adcock = greater risk with greater rewards.

Cross/Fisher = the safe option with little to gain or lose.

Having said that there's also the risk Fisher breaks his leg in the opening term of round 1 so basically evrythings a gamble and as always luck will play as big a part as skill.

 

[Big Nasty]

That's the ticket. You need to weigh up the risks in having him - vs the risks in not having him.

If you have him, you run the risk of losing a potential 100k on someone who trades him in *if* he has a bad game.

If you don't have him, you run the risk of falling behind as one would assume that buying ablett would mean setting him as captain. Which would put you 50+ points behind. Per week. (lowered slightly by the extra 100k you have to spend elsewhere...)

Flip sides though.

If Ablett doesn't perform. If he cops hard tag after hard tag (And honestly, it's the Nab cup... do we really put that much weight into it?) - Then his scores will suffer. I know that Crowley did a number on him. Twice. How? I'm sure that many opposition coaches will be asking the same question. Reckon they might have figured anything out?

Who knows. Ablett is a damned freak! And will be *the* decision that will make, or break most teams out there.

Actually in the second game against Crowley, Ablett had 14 possesions and a goal before he did his ankle with a couple of minutes to halftime, and he was clearly best on ground till then.

There's no point worrying about the heavy tags he will get during the season as he was recieving the heavy treament in '08, and was still the best player in the comp.

 

[Parasite]

Run along pumpkin.

Heh - pumpkin.

 

[Phamtom Menace]

Actually in the second game against Crowley, Ablett had 14 possesions and a goal before he did his ankle with a couple of minutes to halftime, and he was clearly best on ground till then.

There's no point worrying about the heavy tags he will get during the season as he was recieving the heavy treament in '08, and was still the best player in the comp.

The scary thing about the heavy tags is that if teams put too much focus on going after Ablett then Bartel, Selwood, Corey are going to tear them up

 

[robertg22]

Out: Pendlebury, K Cornes
IN: Hasleby, Ablett

 

[Knight Ryders]

I think in SC it is a crime not to pick the best players (I would rate these players to be Goddard, Ablett/Judd, Cox and Pav), especially given the double up of massive scores that SC can provide. I've picked a side with Ablett starting and I don't think it hinders my side at all. May be a little riskier in the backs.

The thing about Ablett last year was just when you thought you could afford him, he would knock out a 160 plus score. If you don't have him at the start, it could cost you 2 trades at some other stage and force you into a trade you're not entirely happy with.

My advice would be, if you don't have Ablett, you would want to know what you are doing in terms of strategy, trading etc.

 

[BigSledge]

Until reading this thread I managed to convince myself that I was gonna be able to make do without little baby jesus but now I've been converted!

Out Selwood & C Knights

In Ablett & Haselby

But I only did this because I didn't have to change my team too much and it saves me 2 trades I would have used during the season & I had around $100k in the kitty to upgrade to him as soon as possible. My team now has 13 keepers instead of 14 with a few potential keepers depending on form.

The other thing I wanted to bring up that this is the first year that Judd is close to full fitness since his time at West Coast so I'ld been planning to use him as my captain option along with Cox til I got either Jesus or Bartel.

 

[deasend]

Back to Ablett - I want to get him

Not sure if anyone knows or cares, but Cats v Hawks then Sydney I think..Not that that's ever stop Ablett...

His last three games against Sydney have been 254, 155 and 122.
His only game against the Hawks last year was where he was BOG and had 113 the year before that.

Ablett is just about the only player in the league that you look forward to when he plays Sydney.

 

[Spartan]

Lol, so with that logic, why pick any good players if they have the potential to get injured?

I can't understand people saying this.. you all make it sound like he DIDN'T recieve this type of attention last year??

Dear Jabroni,

I was just making a point. Anyone can get injured. Its not a reason not to pick them, however there is that element of risk. Some players are more prone to injury than others, either due to their body, style of play, etc. Some players might be recovering from a serious injury.

Gary Ablett Jr did get serious attention last year. He also missed 4 games last year (one could argue in part due to that 'attention'), thats almost 20% of the games for the regular season.

Its all about pros and cons. For me having Gazza has more pros than cons, however it wont be the same for the next person.

Cheers

Sparts

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Lol, so with that logic, why pick any good players if they have the potential to get injured?

It's about balancing the possibility of injury against the total investment. Ablett may be no more likely to get injured than Judd, Harvey or Cross, but if he does go down that's an extra $100,000 on your bench.

 

[sblack]

Another thing to consider. Due to the shortened NAB games, the scores are not reflective of true AFL games. They are only 7/8ths of the real score.

Adjusting for this, Ablett scored 206. An almighty score.

Still don't have him though, just thought that might get the fanboys excited

 

[jonoman89]

Hmmm......not sure about that trade.

Kerr is under priced and should be in the "keeper" catagory, upgrading kerr to ablett is a waste.

Players id be looking at ungrading to Ablett is a haselby, t tuck, b reilly or a b johnson(pies) or players around that 300k - 400k price, and combine that with a rookie that earnt you a bit of cash. Kerr to Ablett is a bit of a sideways trade in my opinion.

I dont think Kerr will be able to maintain 2006/07 scores with the first tag now. Plus he's not very consistent.

If you have Ablett, you are 90% guaranteed a 120+ score. You can pencil him in as captain every week (i did in 2008). He's worth 600k.

 

[GmeUP]

It's about balancing the possibility of injury against the total investment. Ablett may be no more likely to get injured than Judd, Harvey or Cross, but if he does go down that's an extra $100,000 on your bench.

But is Judd, Harvey or Cross likely to still finish in the top 10 overall scorers in the league if they miss 5 games through injury?

 

[Spartan]

Another thing to consider. Due to the shortened NAB games, the scores are not reflective of true AFL games. They are only 7/8ths of the real score.

Adjusting for this, Ablett scored 206. An almighty score.

Still don't have him though, just thought that might get the fanboys excited

I just blew a load.

But is Judd, Harvey or Cross likely to still finish in the top 10 overall scorers in the league if they miss 5 games through injury?

I could be wrong but i'm guessing Judd and Hodge both would have in the years they averaged 130+ ppg.

 

[swansfan51]

Another thing to consider. Due to the shortened NAB games, the scores are not reflective of true AFL games. They are only 7/8ths of the real score.

I know that is true in DT, but aren't SC scores all scaled to make sure they add up to a certain number of points anyway? I don't know the answer to this question but it's one I wish I did know for sure.

 

[sblack]

I just blew a load.

As expected



I could be wrong but i'm guessing Judd and Hodge both would have in the years they averaged 130+ ppg.

....

 

[sblack]

I know that is true in DT, but aren't SC scores all scaled to make sure they add up to a certain number of points anyway? I don't know the answer to this question but it's one I wish I did know for sure.

Yes, that is correct. People haven't clued into the fact that Champion Data are accounting for the shortened games in the NAB. 70 minutes instead of a normal 80 minutes. Accordingly, as someone pointed out in another thread, the total points reflects this change. The usual amount is 3300, but in these games they have been totaling 2890. Divide by 7, multiply by 8 and what do you know...3300 give or take.

So, if these games were full AFL games, we would be seeing much larger scores all round. Which makes some of the scores from the NAB (Ablett's 180, Lockyer's 160) that much more impressive. Even makes the solid scores from players like Haselby and Houlihan into very good scores (PH- 92/105 and RH- 95/108)

 

[GUMBLETRON]

But is Judd, Harvey or Cross likely to still finish in the top 10 overall scorers in the league if they miss 5 games through injury?

At $100,000+ less, they don't need to.

 

[GmeUP]

At $100,000+ less, they don't need to.

My point is Ablett has already proven he can, hence the 100,000+ price-tag. If you can get the same amount of games out of him the only bloke I see with the potential to catch him over the season is Judd if he recovers '06 form which is highly likely, hence if you have both from the start your 2 steps ahead of players that dont and 4 trades up as theirs no up down wasted on what should be the 2 best players in the comp.

 

[Ingall]

My point is Ablett has already proven he can, hence the 100,000+ price-tag. If you can get the same amount of games out of him the only bloke I see with the potential to catch him over the season is Judd if he recovers '06 form which is highly likely, hence if you have both from the start your 2 steps ahead of players that dont and 4 trades up as theirs no up down wasted on what should be the 2 best players in the comp.

That's how I'm looking at it.

 

[Parasite]

Yes, that is correct. People haven't clued into the fact that Champion Data are accounting for the shortened games in the NAB. 70 minutes instead of a normal 80 minutes. Accordingly, as someone pointed out in another thread, the total points reflects this change. The usual amount is 3300, but in these games they have been totaling 2890. Divide by 7, multiply by 8 and what do you know...3300 give or take.

So, if these games were full AFL games, we would be seeing much larger scores all round. Which makes some of the scores from the NAB (Ablett's 180, Lockyer's 160) that much more impressive. Even makes the solid scores from players like Haselby and Houlihan into very good scores (PH- 92/105 and RH- 95/108)

They also have extended benches too, do they not? So on average the TOG for the players would be less too, so the scores would be lower because of that too.

 

[Stakerz]

He's in my team.

 

[TigerGlory]

My team looks so much more balanced with Bartel in the side rather than Ablett, simply because that extra cash gives me the option to upgrade so many other blokes.

That said, Ablett is a freak. And i cant make up my mind.

 

[Judd_Magic]

My team looks so much more balanced with Bartel in the side rather than Ablett, simply because that extra cash gives me the option to upgrade so many other blokes.

That said, Ablett is a freak. And i cant make up my mind.

I'm with you mate. I find I can have Harvey instead of Richo and Hille instead of Ottens. I could also have Gilbee instead of Malceski if I chose to shore up my defense.

I need to make all these decisons by the end of NAB cup though as I am just going around on the team shuffling merry go round at the moment.

 

[Vacuous Space]

I assume the people who aren't getting Ablett at the start are planning to at some stage. The question I have is when? At what point is he cheap enough to buy? $650K? $600? What happens if he starts off on fire? Are you willing to hold off until the second half, perhaps never getting him at all? I know that happened to me with Judd one year in the past.

There's no way of knowing which strategy is the right one. I'm just surprised there are so many who aren't getting him given the conventional wisdom on Cox.