Speculation Tom Barrass [UFA 2027]

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Mate what you’re forgetting is with Barrass you’d have your sights set on top 4 next year.

12 and F12 is being very generous to their value because that’s todays valuation of them, with this years a good chance of improving to minimum 13/14 and next years anywhere from 14-18.

That’s more than fair for who you’re getting and if it propels you to contender status then list managers are doing that deal every day of the week.

You’re preaching to the converted. He’s a gun. But he’ll also be 29 with back issues and wants out due to false promises. You won’t be getting 2 1sts and I’ll happily take that to the bank.
 
Because if we are going to go down this rabbit hole, should previous trade valuations be factored in then?

If we assume current draft positions, Hawthorn with 2 1st rounders at current position is worth pick 2 in terms of draft points.

Is Tom Barrass worth that, when

Dangerfield went for Pick 9 and 28
Dawson went for pick 18
May for pick 6
Hogan for 6 and 23

We should do that.

Dangerfield, free agent, traded because it would get slightly better return than compensation.
Dawson, traded for a later first because Adelaide could take him for nothing in the PSD
May - contracted but having cultural issues, moves as part of the Hogan deal (injured and depressed)

Neale, Gibbs, Lever might be better examples.
 
Because if we are going to go down this rabbit hole, should previous trade valuations be factored in then?

If we assume current draft positions, Hawthorn with 2 1st rounders at current position is worth pick 2 in terms of draft points.

Is Tom Barrass worth that, when

Dangerfield went for Pick 9 and 28
Dawson went for pick 18
May for pick 6
Hogan for 6 and 23

Are the Eagles chasing draft points? No.

Those examples don't include unknown future picks. The clubs knew what they were getting at the time of those trades.

And future picks are discounted to a degree as you get zero benefit for the first 12 months.

2024 pick 11 slides to 13.

Next years draft is one of the most compromised to date. Say 2025 Hawks pick is 14. That likely slides to 17 to 20.

Can see the Eagles adding a future 2nd or 3rd.
 

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We should do that.

Dangerfield, free agent, traded because it would get slightly better return than compensation.
Dawson, traded for a later first because Adelaide could take him for nothing in the PSD
May - contracted but having cultural issues, moves as part of the Hogan deal (injured and depressed)

Neale, Gibbs, Lever might be better examples.

Lever a great one.

Melbourne received a 2nd and 3rd back in exchange for their 2 1sts (10 and 18).

Making the total deal worth, in terms of draft points, the same as … a 1st and 2nd.
 
So? Which club here do you think sets the price? Hawthorn put the bigger contract in front of him, WC have the current contract.
West Coast can set whatever price they want, he is contracted. I am just suggesting our use of one asset doesn’t have to mean we value him the same with the other.

West coast only think he is worth 750 over 3 years, should that lessen what they value him at?
 
Because if we are going to go down this rabbit hole, should previous trade valuations be factored in then?

If we assume current draft positions, Hawthorn with 2 1st rounders at current position is worth pick 2 in terms of draft points.

Is Tom Barrass worth that, when

Dangerfield went for Pick 9 and 28
Dawson went for pick 18
May for pick 6
Hogan for 6 and 23
How many of those blokes had 3 years to run on their contract?
 
You’re preaching to the converted. He’s a gun. But he’ll also be 29 with back issues and wants out due to false promises. You won’t be getting 2 1sts and I’ll happily take that to the bank.
So you wouldn’t trade two late firsts if it meant instantly improving your list with an AA calibre player in the position you need most?

Decent chance at least one of those picks doesn’t make it to 200 games.
 
Lever a great one.

Melbourne received a 2nd and 3rd back in exchange for their 2 1sts (10 and 18).

Making the total deal worth, in terms of draft points, the same as … a 1st and 2nd.
Points grading is worth **** all when there isn't a FS/Academy tied to it.

Just because pick 24 and 32 equal pick 12 (no I didn't do the math I could be off there) doesn't mean they are equal.
 
Youre having a laugh no? He’s one of the best backmen in the league in his prime with 3 years to run on his contract. With the Hawks cracking the 8 this week that pick is now outside 10.

It’s both first rounders easily, especially if you climb a couple more spots (likely with your fixture). You cant be going after a contracted top 5 defender and not having to pay up for him.

~12 and F12 is more than fair for both sides.
Dubious. 1x AA squad nomination in his career and 0 team selections. Can count on one hand the number of times he's finished top 10 in the John Worsfold Medal.
 
Lever a great one.

Melbourne received a 2nd and 3rd back in exchange for their 2 1sts (10 and 18).

Making the total deal worth, in terms of draft points, the same as … a 1st and 2nd.

The ladder positions are different for the team losing the player since Adelaide's second round pick was at the end of the round compared to WC's being right at the start.

But having the trade follow as:

#11 and Future 1st for Tom Barrass and future 3rd is about the same.
 
West Coast can set whatever price they want, he is contracted. I am just suggesting our use of one asset doesn’t have to mean we value him the same with the other.

West coast only think he is worth 750 over 3 years, should that lessen what they value him at?
We offered him 4 years but he wants 5 is a part of the impasse we are at.
 

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So much posturing, I love it.

So you wouldn’t trade two late firsts if it meant instantly improving your list with an AA calibre player in the position you need most?

Decent chance at least one of those picks doesn’t make it to 200 games.

I personally wouldn’t. 1 1st, yep. Barrass has played an average of 17 games a season across last five years and I wouldn’t expect that number to increase over next 5. If we could get 80 out of him, I’d be happy. But it’s not worth 2 1sts.
 
The ladder positions are different for the team losing the player since Adelaide's second round pick was at the end of the round compared to WC's being right at the start.

But having the trade follow as:

#11 and Future 1st for Tom Barrass and future 3rd is about the same.

Predicting ladder positions is fraught with danger. It’s fun to assume Hawks will rise, but Pies did that and their pick swap with us will now actually be a downgrade for us.

Only reasonable measure is to assume picks remain as is.
 
Predicting ladder positions is fraught with danger. It’s fun to assume Hawks will rise, but Pies did that and their pick swap with us will now actually be a downgrade for us.

Only reasonable measure is to assume picks remain as is.

I am assuming pick #11 stays as pick #11 the following year. Two pick #11s for Barrass and a pick in the low 30s.
 
So much posturing, I love it.



I personally wouldn’t. 1 1st, yep. Barrass has played an average of 17 games a season across last five years and I wouldn’t expect that number to increase over next 5. If we could get 80 out of him, I’d be happy. But it’s not worth 2 1sts.
I love the hypocrisy to then include a season where he gets tunnelled and misses the rest of the season and also the Covid season where he played 18 games. Which was every game. Take out his single season ending injury courtesy of Jack and he’s actually been pretty durable. You’re getting a fantastic player and a sharp mind on and off the field too.
 
A third rounder is a pick in the 40s, not 30s.

Based on picks this year at present, not including picks pushed back

10 + 10 for Barrass + 42 puts Barrass at worth pick 3.

Too much.

Sounds appropriate given the size of his contract being offered and that he is already contracted.

Tim Kelly was more expensive.

The real worry, I know, if that a future first becomes a top five pick.
 
Sounds appropriate given the size of his contract being offered and that he is already contracted.

Tim Kelly was more expensive.

The real worry, I know, if that a future first becomes a top five pick.

It might sound appropriate, I’m just saying it will never happen. It’d be arguably the biggest trade in afl history based on draft pick worth.

10 + 30 puts Barrass worth at pick 8 which is far more reasonable, which is where I think it’ll land.
 

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Speculation Tom Barrass [UFA 2027]

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