Strategy Trade and List management (Add your rumour to the simmering stew that is the post season. Edition.)

[Mutt]

Jesus I ask an honest question

Other people sook it up and it’s still my fault

Lol wow, the people in here are so good

Let it go Matt - just a misunderstanding. Don't escalate.

I agree with the general gist of what you are saying about Champion Data. Nowhere near as relevant as analytics are in the NBA for example. We have a long way still to go to get truly meaningful data for our game. It is such a difficult game to distill into statistics it seems. Perhaps we will never have the quality of objective analysis available to baseball and basketball.

 

[TedDougChris]

On a lighter note , foghorn my all time favorite cartoon character
King Julien closing fast

Name change coming up mate ???

 

[King Harold]

Name change coming up mate ???

Might have too TDC ,
Been a lot of arrows coming my way lately !

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Jesus I ask an honest question

Other people sook it up and it’s still my fault

Lol wow, the people in here are so good

I sooked it up? An honest question? Mate you could win the Tour de France backwards with all the backpedalling you do. What a joke. Anwyay, I'm leaving it there, say what you want.

 

[TedDougChris]

Might have too TDC ,
Been a lot of arrows coming my way lately !

Much better success rate than your namesake. In terms of dodging. Almost Bont-esque evasion....

 

[perro_loco]

That would be a huge gain if true. How our midfield is ranked in the top 3 by CD beats me. We lack pace, foot skills, big bodies and having that damaging edge to be able to find a goal here and there, ours don't hit the scoreboard enough. Kelly would fill in a few gaps, hopefully by then our young key position players will be developed to make the most of it. Agree with many that we won flag ahead of our time, probably a couple of years away from the real window, so it would be a huge gain at a good time. Whether we can fit him into our salary cap would be the only question?

we did not win the flaG ahead of time. we won it at the right. we played the hardest footy with injuries and having to travel in each final. the preparation was perfect for the finals, hence the win. what we need to do now is replicate 2016. this is why I think we will have a really good year, and it is great that much of the media think that we are mid to lower end of the ladder. GO DOGS!!!

 

[perro_loco]

He looks our no 1 ruck at this stage, especially with Rough under an injury cloud.
Solid citizen off field and a former B&F winner as a ruck, I'm comfortable with getting him and his contract. He's only on Chris Mayne money

Bont can probably write his own cheque, JJ is on decent coin too now IIRC

is Roughead injured? F me dead. is this true? injured again? Noooooo!!!!

 

[perro_loco]

Surely this is people who don't know how to use stats, not stats per se?


And nobody's trying to claim that metres gained measures anything other than ... metres gained. If you kick it 20 metres to the opposition, you've gained 20 metres of territory. Nobody's saying it's an measure of "more metres gained = better game", it's just an measure of "you gained more metres in this game, which is generally consistent with playing a good game"

I don't see how it makes that stat inherently "bad" when it does what's advertised on the can. In that respect it's no different to measuring how many kicks a player had total: that tell you how many kicks they had irrespective of whether you kicked to a teammate or opposition player. Kicks are a measure of "how many times you kicked the ball, which is generally consistent with playing a good game".

Champion Data also measures stats like "retained metres gained" which is metres gained that goes to a teammate. It's not Champion Data's fault that the media doesn't use that stat instead of using the metres gained stat.


And so it should be, because a contested possession is any possession that's defined as a possession won where the opposition theoretically could have also won possession of the ball - ie they're physically present when the opposition won the ball, even if they're not physically beaten to the ball (that's a hard-ball get). Then a player giving a way a free kick is obviously physically present, and the opposition player wins the ball. What's the issue with that? Consider a marking contest - any free kick given away in a marking contest, if the mark was taken, it would be a contested mark (a type of contested possession) because the opposition is physically present - as they have to be to give away a free kick. I don't see the issue with that.


I love how there's quotation marks around stats as if it's some abstract concept that may or may not be real and it's something to be believed, as opposed to, you know, just what results from counting reality.

Are you afraid of them because they don't let you create an alternate reality?

It's also worth noting that Kane Cornes copped a heap of criticism from actual smart people on twitter for running that segment.

great response. also Cornes is a spud.

 

[perro_loco]

In age demographic we won ahead of time but I agree how can you measure football peak level to win a flag.

As you know I must disagree we will be really good but what gives you confidence we will be? You are not basing that purely on hope are you?

there is of course an element of hope MD, but I like to do it based on the evidence. I think we were pretty fair against the hawks and really good against the pies, but only for the first quarter. after that the dogs coaches instructed players to just play., conserve energy and have a good run. yes, Collingwood won fair and square, but we are a much better side than Collingwood. also, I think that last year was a bad year, and in spite of how bad it was, had we won two or three close games we would have played finals. 2017 was a typical hangover year from a list of young players. I think quite a few players have improved considerably. mclean has improved enormously, so has dale, and I like the new recruits. they add value to the side. if we are ok with injuries we will make the 8 for sure. and naughton is a real gun, imo. also English. and I have faith in Boyd. we are yet to see the best of him, imo. go dogs!!! oh and my middle name is: perro-the-optimist-loco.

 

[Mattdougie]

there is of course an element of hope MD, but I like to do it based on the evidence. I think we were pretty fair against the hawks and really good against the pies, but only for the first quarter. after that the dogs coaches instructed players to just play., conserve energy and have a good run. yes, Collingwood won fair and square, but we are a much better side than Collingwood. also, I think that last year was a bad year, and in spite of how bad it was, had we won two or three close games we would have played finals. 2017 was a typical hangover year from a list of young players. I think quite a few players have improved considerably. mclean has improved enormously, so has dale, and I like the new recruits. they add value to the side. if we are ok with injuries we will make the 8 for sure. and naughton is a real gun, imo. also English. and I have faith in Boyd. we are yet to see the best of him, imo. go dogs!!! oh and my middle name is: pero-the-optimist-loco.

Even if we suck this year I’m very excited to watch Naughton and hopefully English develop. They are the two “kids” that excite me the most on the list.

I’m very undecided although I will say the errors we made during JLT2 did really concern me. Still my biggest worry is the coaching set up.

I also question whether this group has the ability to get back to 2016 level buttome will tell. We must start well I’m not sure we have the mental strength to fight back from a bad start

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Let it go Matt - just a misunderstanding. Don't escalate.

I agree with the general gist of what you are saying about Champion Data. Nowhere near as relevant as analytics are in the NBA for example. We have a long way still to go to get truly meaningful data for our game. It is such a difficult game to distill into statistics it seems. Perhaps we will never have the quality of objective analysis available to baseball and basketball.

Analytics is the application of statistics.

Champion Data is just a stats collecting agency that sometimes publicise the fact that they collect stats.

It's up to the media to understand these stats and work them into whatever they're doing. If they do that badly it's not on Champion Data, they're just a body that is doing a glorified version of counting on your fingers.

There's analytics going on at the clubs, and anyone who is smarter than a media person in using stats gets kept by the clubs and obviously their analytical research gets kept under lock and key.

The difference is that NBA and MLB analytics can easily be done by the public because of open data. The AFL, which owns 49% of Champion Data chooses not to release information publicly so there's not a culture of amateur analytics as there is in America.

 

[perro_loco]

Even if we suck this year I’m very excited to watch Naughton and hopefully English develop. They are the two “kids” that excite me the most on the list.

I’m very undecided although I will say the errors we made during JLT2 did really concern me. Still my biggest worry is the coaching set up.

I also question whether this group has the ability to get back to 2016 level buttome will tell. We must start well I’m not sure we have the mental strength to fight back from a bad start

have faith MD. perro-the-optimist-loco

 

[TiAn_]

lol

 

[Mutt]

Analytics is the application of statistics.

Champion Data is just a stats collecting agency that sometimes publicise the fact that they collect stats.

It's up to the media to understand these stats and work them into whatever they're doing. If they do that badly it's not on Champion Data, they're just a body that is doing a glorified version of counting on your fingers.

There's analytics going on at the clubs, and anyone who is smarter than a media person in using stats gets kept by the clubs and obviously their analytical research gets kept under lock and key.

The difference is that NBA and MLB analytics can easily be done by the public because of open data. The AFL, which owns 49% of Champion Data chooses not to release information publicly so there's not a culture of amateur analytics as there is in America.

Yes but I'm questioning the efficacy of the data produced by Champion Data. Not all data are equal, so to speak.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Yes but I'm questioning the efficacy of the data produced by Champion Data. Not all data are equal, so to speak.

Unfortunately it's an insular world, sports stats. Champion Data is the only provider allowed to provide stats for the AFL - other business have been sued by the AFL - and it's 49% owned by the AFL. Clubs pay five figures for the package, the media gets a smaller amount. It's crap and why your valid concerns go nowhere.

 

[Mutt]

Unfortunately it's an insular world, sports stats. Champion Data is the only provider allowed to provide stats for the AFL - other business have been sued by the AFL - and it's 49% owned by the AFL. Clubs pay five figures for the package, the media gets a smaller amount. It's crap and why your valid concerns go nowhere.

Well put TNP.

 

[Mattdougie]

Unfortunately it's an insular world, sports stats. Champion Data is the only provider allowed to provide stats for the AFL - other business have been sued by the AFL - and it's 49% owned by the AFL. Clubs pay five figures for the package, the media gets a smaller amount. It's crap and why your valid concerns go nowhere.

So you actually admit the data we receive off CD is basically irrelevant due to its edited format and incomplete results that don’t explain final numbers aquarately?

So pretty much what I’ve said from day one ?

 

[TiAn_]

I hope TNP doesn’t earnestly respond with a nuanced post correcting the various errors there, because it’ll be a complete waste of time.

 

[TempletonTheRat]

Yes but I'm questioning the efficacy of the data produced by Champion Data. Not all data are equal, so to speak.

I worked for 18 years for a global market research company. We had a saying - "all data are wrong"

 

[TMoney22]

Unfortunately it's an insular world, sports stats. Champion Data is the only provider allowed to provide stats for the AFL - other business have been sued by the AFL - and it's 49% owned by the AFL. Clubs pay five figures for the package, the media gets a smaller amount. It's crap and why your valid concerns go nowhere.

It's such BS, one of my biggest frustrations in footy. Data modelling is part of my job and i could do some wonderful things with that data. I tried just with the basic stats of AFL website for a year but its just not worth the time.

The game would be so much better for fans like us if we had access. But its all about $$ i guess

 

[dogwatch]

Unfortunately it's an insular world, sports stats. Champion Data is the only provider allowed to provide stats for the AFL - other business have been sued by the AFL - and it's 49% owned by the AFL. Clubs pay five figures for the package, the media gets a smaller amount. It's crap and why your valid concerns go nowhere.

It's such BS, one of my biggest frustrations in footy. Data modelling is part of my job and i could do some wonderful things with that data. I tried just with the basic stats of AFL website for a year but its just not worth the time.

The game would be so much better for fans like us if we had access. But its all about $$ i guess

Sounds like the AFL's short term greed might not be so beneficial over the (more strategic) long term.

 

[Yojimbo]

Sounds like the AFL's short term greed might not be so beneficial over the (more strategic) long term.

Don't know about that DW, i will have to look up the stats.

 

[TedDougChris]

Sounds like the AFL's short term greed might not be so beneficial over the (more strategic) long term.

The AFL are greedy ??? What ever gave you that idea ???

 

[Fossie 32]

The AFL are greedy ??? What ever gave you that idea ???

 

[blagodellago]

I hope we do fork out $1,000,000+ for the Bont's next contract -- he deserves it. I'm happy to cop $200,000 less in the total cap.