Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 2 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[PuzzledfromParkville]

McStay re-signed earlier in the year until the end of 2022.

Also if Carlisle plays in at least one of the next two games, his contract has an automatic trigger for an extension until the end of 2020 so he is effectively contracted also.

He will be playing next week. Other than a Trengrove like kick he was incredible in the last quarter

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

After watching him so closely and loving it, I’m convinced Naughton is the reincarnation of Nick Riewoldt and Dunkley is the next Josh Kennedy. Thoughts?

Hearing Nick talk about him game day and having him as his fav player, i think he sees it too. of course without the acting for frees or crying.

 

[Anja_Nees]

You said that he only kicks goals when they are dominating which is objectively wrong. Plenty of his goals have been when they are behind, to put them in the lead and sometimes even to win the match for them in the last 20 seconds

Plenty? Yeah nah. He might have bobbed up with some clutch goals but his record in games they have lost is deplorable and even in games they’ve won he’s been hot and cold.

In fact take out his Brisbane game and he’s statistically had a pretty bad year for a small forward in a side that’s been in the eight most of the season.

And I do see my share of Essendon games regrettably. If we actually get him I’ll keep an open mind but I don’t think he’s any improvement on Dickson, Lloyd and Dale.

 

[ScragCity]

Plenty? Yeah nah. He might have bobbed up with some clutch goals but his record in games they have lost is deplorable and even in games they’ve won he’s been hot and cold.

In fact take out his Brisbane game and he’s statistically had a pretty bad year for a small forward in a side that’s been in the eight most of the season.

And I do see my share of Essendon games regrettably. If we actually get him I’ll keep an open mind but I don’t think he’s any improvement on Dickson, Lloyd and Dale.

Oh yeah? What's the bench mark for a small forward, statistically? If you compare him to Charlie Cameron who most rate as the best small forward going around his stats are pretty similar. Unless you're only measuring him on goals...

 

[Unorth]

AMT is great at the defensive aspect of being a small forward. Racks up tackles. And he'd be third in total goal assists at our club this season.

But I'll say again, the issue isn't that he struggles just when Essendon's down. He struggles against the good teams regardless of the result. The low goal total in losses is one thing, but it's his goal totals against good teams that bothers me more. Because then the defense of 'of course a forward will struggle when his teams getting smashed' goes out the window.

The counting stats are unfortunately what the average joe footy fan gets access to and aren't the most advanced stats going around. But when it comes to scoreboard impact v top 8 sides, AMT has been undeniably poor this season. Yep - There's more to the game, and we're lacking a pressure forward. He'd fit in the team and I wouldn't be upset if we had him. Nor would a 500k contract bother me, that's not a huge issue when you consider how much cap space we have, and in general there'd be many worse contracts in the league. He'd also benefit from playing with such a dominant midfield group.

I'm not interested in painting him as crap or a downhill skier or whatever. But a) I'd say perhaps people get carried away with the highlight plays when on a consistent basis he's not as good as what his fan favourite status would indicate and b) again, I would have him in the team but it's fair to assume, with what Dodo's like, that it'd be a pain to acquire him and would cost us more than what he's really worth, and there may be far more sensible trades out there to get a forward that can produce something similar to Tippa's overall output.

I know this is all a lot of talk about a player that will probably just stay at Essendon. But it just interests me how polarising the views are on his game.

 

[footyfan000001]

Not sure why anyone who wants to be traded -wouldn’t want to come to us right now.

 

[Anja_Nees]

Oh yeah? What's the bench mark for a small forward, statistically? If you compare him to Charlie Cameron who most rate as the best small forward going around his stats are pretty similar. Unless you're only measuring him on goals...

Yeah...if you ignore that Cameron has 20 more goals for the season.

Kicking goals is a kind of important criteria for a small forward. And Tippa has gone goalless in eight games, as well as having a few too many single digit possession tallies, usually in the same games.

His upside is fine. He goes missing way too often and when he does he may as well not be on the field.

 

[Mattdougie]

AMT is great at the defensive aspect of being a small forward. Racks up tackles. And he'd be third in total goal assists at our club this season.

But I'll say again, the issue isn't that he struggles just when Essendon's down. He struggles against the good teams regardless of the result. The low goal total in losses is one thing, but it's his goal totals against good teams that bothers me more. Because then the defense of 'of course a forward will struggle when his teams getting smashed' goes out the window.

The counting stats are unfortunately what the average joe footy fan gets access to and aren't the most advanced stats going around. But when it comes to scoreboard impact v top 8 sides, AMT has been undeniably poor this season. Yep - There's more to the game, and we're lacking a pressure forward. He'd fit in the team and I wouldn't be upset if we had him. Nor would a 500k contract bother me, that's not a huge issue when you consider how much cap space we have, and in general there'd be many worse contracts in the league. He'd also benefit from playing with such a dominant midfield group.

I'm not interested in painting him as crap or a downhill skier or whatever. But a) I'd say perhaps people get carried away with the highlight plays when on a consistent basis he's not as good as what his fan favourite status would indicate and b) again, I would have him in the team but it's fair to assume, with what Dodo's like, that it'd be a pain to acquire him and would cost us more than what he's really worth, and there may be far more sensible trades out there to get a forward that can produce something similar to Tippa's overall output.

I know this is all a lot of talk about a player that will probably just stay at Essendon. But it just interests me how polarising the views are on his game.

Fair assessment and an intelligent post but I ponder to you several responses

1- it’s impossible to say he would be third in score assists in our team due to the fact our midfield is so dominate and he would be asked to do less work up the ground. This would effect his assist numbers BUT could increase his goal total

2- his stats top 8 v the rest are deplorable and imo effect the money any team would pay him. Many say he would have helped us beat the bottom teams and he may well but if we accept that we must accept he is next to useless if we make finals. To pay a bloke 500k that we may need to drop for finals is baffling logic for mine.

3- in his defence with us I would think he would be asked to play much closer to goal and his target hitting is generally very good but as many others I struggle to see the value in any player that we are bringing in purely for “pressure” as some suggest and then paying him a fair crack to do it. Coz we have cap room doesn’t mean we have to well overpay for smells when we already have a few that do the job near as well

 

[_M_16_]

I'm not on the Tippa bandwagon. YES, he gets tackles. But what is two tackles more a game?

Tippa averages 4.3 tackles a game.

From our team, Lloyd 2.5, Dale 1.9, Dickson 2.5, Mclean 3.9

The question is also where is Tippa getting those tackles? Forward 50 or in the middle etc? Are they creating turnovers or resulting in goals? Or just holding up the play for a stoppage?

I agree with those who point out his goal scoring issues vs top end teams. The number one role for forwards is to kick goals, not tackles. If you cannot stand up vs the good teams. How will you stand up in the finals where it matters? Yes of cause players in lower placed teams struggle to kick goals vs good teams. But Essendon have been in the 8 most of the year/middle rung. But he is to much a downhill skier for my liking. We could do with a pressure small with x factor, but I would rather one that is more consistent and can stand up vs quality.

Honestly don't think a couple of tackles more is significant enough to overlook lack of impact and lack of spread of goals.

Has kicked 3 or more goals in only 5 games so far this season. Demons 4, Early season out of form Lions 7, Dockers 3 Home, Blues 3, Roos 4

Games without goals. GWS Away, Saints Home, Magpies Home, Cats Away, Swans Away, Tigers Away, Hawks Home, Giants Home,
Crows Away, Suns Away, Power Home,

Games with goals. Demons Away, Lions Home, Roos Away, Dockers Home, Blues Home, Eagles Away, Swans Home, Roos Home, Bulldogs Home

Even last season in 2018, he went 14 games where he kicked 1 or 0 goals. He is simply a cameo player, and we can't afford to have forwards who are passengers for half to two thirds of the season.

Goals in 2018/2019 vs

Top - 2018 - 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 0 - 2019 - 0 7 0 0 0 1 0 = 18 from 15 games, six donuts and only one bag (3 or more), 11 from 14 if you take out Lions Game
Middle - 2018 - 0 1 0 0 1 2 - 2019 - 3 0 1 0 1 = 9 from 11 games, 5 donuts and one bag (3 or more)
Bottom - 2018 - 1 1 1 2 1 0 5 - 2019 - 0 4 2 0 3 1 4 0 = 24 from 15 games, 4 donuts, and 4 bags (3 or more)

He was more consistent in his spread of goals in games across 2018, but has really struggled against top and middle teams this season. His bag vs Lions is an outlier. Most of our current forwards have a better goal rate vs top 6-8 teams. So who does he knock out of our forward 50, for less goals and a couple of more tackles when goals win you games?

So the question is, is his extra couple of tackles a game worth is, vs his lack of consistency and production vs quality teams? He is 27 next season, how much more improvement do 27 year olds make?

As for his 15 goal assists? Yeah might be third best on our team, but many middle to forward half players on our team are in their teens for goal assists. Hardly much difference in that either. If anything maybe his lack of clangers and decent amount of inside 50's a game are a plus. The high inside 50 numbers per game tells me he goes up the ground to be more involved/where he has his most impact. Which means most of his disposals and tackles probably occur outside the forward 50. We need a small who impacts and does more inside 50.

Sorry guys, I just can't see him making a significant enough difference to what we have now. Even then I seriously doubt he will leave Essendon or come to us regardless.

 

[Smiley Boy]

After watching him so closely and loving it, I’m convinced Naughton is the reincarnation of Nick Riewoldt and Dunkley is the next Josh Kennedy. Thoughts?

Dunkley reminds me of Jobe Watson in his early pre jabbing days

 

[maddog37]

Tippa would benefit from being in a better environment and a decent coach.

Dealing with Dodo in any form is a huge negative.

On balance I reckon there is no way he is going anywhere.

 

[gangsta deluxe]

In terms of the Tippa discussion I do wonder whether him going missing in some games is just on him or if it is Essendon more broadly limiting a player of his style when they aren’t firing? Or both?

We’ve just assumed that he is a passenger in harder contests but that is at least the fault of a team with a soft midfield and one that when Saad is nullified cannot rebound quickly from defense. We’ve got a strong midfield and rebound capability in spades.

It’s a yes for me.

 

[mattwa]

Surely with the cap space we have and the ability to send out early picks to target a gun player we can do better than waste that on Tippa... Would rather just sign Dan Butler for cheap and save the draft picks and cap space for an out and out gun. Hopefully the club targets Jack Martin to replace Dickson in that medium forward crafty forward role....

 

[Ash1337]

Thoughts on some defenders that are currently out of contract at the end of 2019: Sam Frost - Melbourne
Daniel Mcstay - Brisbane
Alex Keath - Adelaide
Adam Tomlinson - GWS (RFA)
Jake Carlisle - St Kilda

I would like Frost. He's got the athleticism and strength. Also Keath is good.

On SM-G977B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[AFDogs]

Adam Tomlinson isn't getting better as a footballer. Didn't see him at all on Friday night. Bit of a downhill skier.

I would like Frost. He's got the athleticism and strength. Also Keath is good.

On SM-G977B using BigFooty.com mobile app

Trengrove > Frost. Frost makes silly decisions. Can do the amazing then kick the ball along the floor and turn it over. Has athleticism but isn't a great decision maker.

 

[Smiley Boy]

Adam Tomlinson isn't getting better as a footballer. Didn't see him at all on Friday night. Bit of a downhill skier.



Trengrove > Frost. Frost makes silly decisions. Can do the amazing then kick the ball along the floor and turn it over. Has athleticism but isn't a great decision maker.

100% agree if Trengrove makes us pull our hair out frost would send us bald

 

[AFDogs]

Carlisle or Moore and AMT or a fit and firing Jamie Elliot would complete our team. Brad Hill would be the icing on the cake.

Make it happen Power.

 

[fronkalicious]

Adam Tomlinson isn't getting better as a footballer. Didn't see him at all on Friday night. Bit of a downhill skier.



Trengrove > Frost. Frost makes silly decisions. Can do the amazing then kick the ball along the floor and turn it over. Has athleticism but isn't a great decision maker.

I watched Tomlinson live in the GWS early days. He’d gut run up and down the ground, despite his team getting belted every week.

Downhill skier he ain’t. Such a cheap shot phrase.

AMT tackles his ass off, but because he doesn’t play as well when his midfield gets hammered, he’s a downhill skier. Think about that. A small forward struggles when his midfield gets flogged. Shock horror.

I don’t want Tomlinson, and I’m happy to get tippa at the right price, but **** me the rhetoric on here about these guys is pathetic.

 

[mattwa]

Carlisle or Moore and AMT or a fit and firing Jamie Elliot would complete our team. Brad Hill would be the icing on the cake.

Make it happen Power.

I would hand over my membership if Jake Carlisle ever wore Red, White and Blue. He is an utter flog and the off the ball sh!t he was doing to Naughty against the Saints reiterated my hate for him. Jamie Elliot is similar to Sam Lloyd he is a natural goal kicker but doesnt have the pace that we need at that position.

Moore and Hill yes and yes but they will both be expensive.

 

[Mofra]

Coz we have cap room doesn’t mean we have to well overpay for smells when we already have a few that do the job near as well

I'll disagree here, I think a small quick pressure forward is something we need to add to the list. We're trying McLean in that role which is a success sometimes and not others, while Caverra just needs to concentrate on getting on the paddock but it seems like he was clearly a needs-based pick.
If we don't trade one in I suspect we take one at draft time.

 

[Mofra]

Trengrove > Frost. Frost makes silly decisions. Can do the amazing then kick the ball along the floor and turn it over. Has athleticism but isn't a great decision maker.

This, absolutely this. Frost is an incredible athlete but that's it.
Trengove holds down the no 1 KPD next year and maybe the year after, we target a gun no 2 KPD who can intercept mark (cough Keath cough) and our defence looks much, much better.

 

[Libba39]

I don't want to trawl through this entire thread, so can someone please explain to me where the Tippa to Bulldogs rumors come from? Sounds like absolute rubbish tbh.
Absolute cult figure at the bombers. Why would they trade him???

 

[FoochPackage]

Have people actually watched Dan Butler? Hes horrific. A massive pass from me.

 

[grassman75]

Not sure why anyone who wants to be traded -wouldn’t want to come to us right now.

Cos Bevo's lost the players...it's a rabble at the dogs, we've got the same line coaches just moved to different positions from their premiership spots, we are stagnant, drafting hacks from other clubs like Lloyd and Dureya...why would you come to the dogs.....

 

[King Harold]

I watched Tomlinson live in the GWS early days. He’d gut run up and down the ground, despite his team getting belted every week.

Downhill skier he ain’t. Such a cheap shot phrase.

AMT tackles his ass off, but because he doesn’t play as well when his midfield gets hammered, he’s a downhill skier. Think about that. A small forward struggles when his midfield gets flogged. Shock horror.

I don’t want Tomlinson, and I’m happy to get tippa at the right price, but fu** me the rhetoric on here about these guys is pathetic.