Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 4 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[LittleG]

We have two second rounders at this stage.

Indicative draft order: Top 14 settled, your club's picks

Check out your club's picks as they stand

www.afl.com.au

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

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View attachment 1231096

This gives you a minor points bump, think you'll probably be able to find more value at this stage unless we can get another earlier second rounder in via trade.

EDIT: Looking at indicative order Adelaide (23 and 37) Hawthorn (20 and 24 - best offer, but might be too much for Hawks to move up only 5 spots) Richmond (26 and 28) and Geelong (30 and 32) can both offer you more value if they wanted to move up.

Think of the draft as:
Top 3 players
Gap
Next 15 players
Drop off
Next 15 players
Further drop off
Then a whole bunch of speculation.

We will have a pick inside the 4-18 range. Even only a small upgrade from pick 20 to pick ~15 is a good upgrade.

I expect our best offer will be from Brisbane in exchange for late picks and their future first. Richmond with picks 26-28 is probably the most likely to trade both picks to get to pick ~15.

There will be multiple clubs looking to move up the draft order into the picks before 20…. And we will be one of the very few (maybe only) to want to move back. Club will want at least 300 more points to make a move back and I suspect the best bid will be closer to 400 points.

 

[adogsfan5]

Trade the City of Hume to Collingwood for a 2022nd rounder and they give us 30% of the rates collected?

Haha god how did that get in here! Sorry!!

 

[bobs head soup]

We have two second rounders at this stage.

Indicative draft order: Top 14 settled, your club's picks

Check out your club's picks as they stand

www.afl.com.au

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

,
View attachment 1231096

This gives you a minor points bump, think you'll probably be able to find more value at this stage unless we can get another earlier second rounder in via trade.

EDIT: Looking at indicative order Adelaide (23 and 37) Hawthorn (20 and 24 - best offer, but might be too much for Hawks to move up only 5 spots) Richmond (26 and 28) and Geelong (30 and 32) can both offer you more value if they wanted to move up.

Who says our pick is 15? Could well be 18.

 

[Foxman98]

Yes it's his choice because he wasn't given a clear run at it when Dunkley and Treloar went down. Hence not enough of a chance.
Call all the Bullshit you want but it's pretty obvious to most. Hey if he wins us a few more flags I doubt many will care.

He’s still not better than Bont Libba Macrae Baz even CD was a better mid then him

 

[Happy Mastenator]

Think of the draft as:
Top 3 players
Gap
Next 15 players
Drop off
Next 15 players
Further drop off
Then a whole bunch of speculation.

We will have a pick inside the 4-18 range. Even only a small upgrade from pick 20 to pick ~15 is a good upgrade.

I expect our best offer will be from Brisbane in exchange for late picks and their future first. Richmond with picks 26-28 is probably the most likely to trade both picks to get to pick ~15.

There will be multiple clubs looking to move up the draft order into the picks before 20…. And we will be one of the very few (maybe only) to want to move back. Club will want at least 300 more points to make a move back and I suspect the best bid will be closer to 400 points.

Why would you want a future first rounder?

You need points this year otherwise you'll go into deficit and your picks next year will move down. I'm going to guess you'll need approx 1,500 points (after discount) at least to match a bid that comes in in the first couple of picks.

As you say though that Richmond trade looks the most likely.

 

[Norm De Guerre]

Lipinski has been given plenty of opportunities to nail his spot for good. Clearly he hasn't been able to for whatever reason.

The whole thing about the coach playing favourites...is there a coach that doesn't? We've played 40 odd players this year, so that's the definition of everyone getting a chance. Plenty have nailed their spots.

Lipinski can either back himself to force
his way in or take the cash go to a bottom club and maybe walk into the side (no guarantees and what if that sides kids pass him and he again ends up on the fringe?). That's his choice.

He isn't being frozen out because of a personality clash with the coach.

Its because he hasn't been able to supplant others in the side when given the opportunity 11 times this season.

I'd ask who's role in the midfield rotations would he replace right Now?

The Bont. Macrae, Smith, Libba, Dunkley, Hunter or Treloar? The latter is the only one that you could mount an argument against on form right now. However the club will always want to punt on him turning that form around as his pace and ball carrying ability is the point of difference that he has over the likes of Lipinski replacing him in this side.

The guy is a pure mid that is surplus to requirements in a team that has gone all in on building a team around its mids. Its unfortunate that this has happened to a lifelong bulldogs supporter and must be gut wrenching for him. The thing is that this is his career and sentiment is for fans. He clearly understands where he is in the pecking order and has had his management put out the feelers to other clubs.

He is fortunate that he has the fallback option of a contract which is probably bare bones on the table or he can try his luck elsewhere.

Quality players are squeezed out of good sides all the time. Indeed its how the expansion sides are set up as a means of maintaining their growth. I hope he stays as he's a favourite of mine as I regard his kicking as second to literally no-one in our side. Having said that I wont be surprised if he goes.

 

[immortalmike]

He’s still not better than Bont Libba Macrae Baz even CD was a better mid then him

Debatable on the last two.
Also they both can play different roles to good effect.

 

[TBOW]

Think of the draft as:
Top 3 players
Gap
Next 15 players
Drop off
Next 15 players
Further drop off
Then a whole bunch of speculation.

We will have a pick inside the 4-18 range. Even only a small upgrade from pick 20 to pick ~15 is a good upgrade.

I expect our best offer will be from Brisbane in exchange for late picks and their future first. Richmond with picks 26-28 is probably the most likely to trade both picks to get to pick ~15.

There will be multiple clubs looking to move up the draft order into the picks before 20…. And we will be one of the very few (maybe only) to want to move back. Club will want at least 300 more points to make a move back and I suspect the best bid will be closer to 400 points.

I read an article (I think on AFL.com) suggesting clubs will be bidding hard to get pick 20 as it the final chance to get NGA listed players before they can be matched.

As you say Collingwood has already traded out of the first round and no one else has that need, so we are well placed to maximise the value of that pick.

 

[Virgin Dog]

I read an article (I think on AFL.com) suggesting clubs will be bidding hard to get pick 20 as it the final chance to get NGA listed players before they can be matched.

As you say Collingwood has already traded out of the first round and no one else has that need, so we are well placed to maximise the value of that pick.

It's an interesting situation where the premiers pick will end up holding that premium (since Pick 18 becomes 20 after Darcy and Daicos)

 

[bobs head soup]

It's an interesting situation where the premiers pick will end up holding that premium (since Pick 18 becomes 20 after Darcy and Daicos)

Are they the only likely matched bids in the top 20?

 

[Virgin Dog]

Are they the only likely matched bids in the top 20?

No other father sons within range unless there's a complete shock. A couple months out from the draft last year, Pickett was looking like a 3rd rounder, and went Pick 8, so bolters do happen. It does look unlikely there's any others but not impossible

 

[Northernsoul74]

Are they the only likely matched bids in the top 20?

Mac Andrew Melbourne NGA a possibility.

 

[Virgin Dog]

Mac Andrew Melbourne NGA a possibility.

Can't be matched within top 20. I assumed the question was regarding how far back the premiers pick would end up being pushed

 

[Northernsoul74]

Can't be matched within top 20. I assumed the question was regarding how far back the premiers pick would end up being pushed

Ah right.

 

[Testekill]

Hi guys, haven't read your whole thread so you may have answered this already, but what do you think will be your best offers for your first rounder?

On the assumption you'd trade it for multiple later picks for draft points for Darcy.

Most likely we'll turn it into multiple second rounders.

 

[BulldogMuscle]

Jake Kelley as a KPD/Lockdown or two small for what we need?

 

[Sentinel]

Jake Kelley as a KPD/Lockdown or two small for what we need?

Off to Essendon

 

[BulldogMuscle]

Off to Essendon

More chance of winning a flag staying in Adelaide then Essendon, more power to him.

 

[Mojorisin]

Mac Andrew Melbourne NGA a possibility.

If Mac Andrew is on the board at pick 20 then i fully expect someone to be calling to get that pick to snatch him before the cut off.

 

[LittleG]

If Mac Andrew is on the board at pick 20 then i fully expect someone to be calling to get that pick to snatch him before the cut off.

Pick 20 will then be the last chance, so the cost will go up. Expect someone to trade in to pick ~18, as it will be a cheaper option.

 

[Mojorisin]

Pick 20 will then be the last chance, so the cost will go up. Expect someone to trade in to pick ~18, as it will be a cheaper option.

Don't think the price will go up. Think it just stays the same. I imagine picks 15-20 being the same value on the night.

 

[Struggle]

Pick 20 will then be the last chance, so the cost will go up. Expect someone to trade in to pick ~18, as it will be a cheaper option.

If the dees really rate him, there's a fair chance they trade up for him too

 

[godoggies15]

Anyone else hearing Ceglar from Hawks is on his way to the Kennel?.....the person who told me does get some good mail though quite often he gets it very wrong

 

[Testekill]

Anyone else hearing Ceglar from Hawks is on his way to the Kennel?.....the person who told me does get some good mail though quite often he gets it very wrong

That wouldn't shock me; we're in the market for a mature ruck that can be competitive in the ruck and Ceglar would be pushed out by the Hawks picking up the Collingwood guy. Would be pretty cheap as well so seems a no brainer.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

Are there likely to be a few players who don’t want to play under Mitchell?