Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 6 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[Mr. Walker]

Ha!, caught you out! not true, because Poons isn't in Footscray anymore, and he wouldn't drive to Sunshine, not the same... Gotcha

Time to show your true colours - were you a Jimmy Wongs or a Poons man?

 

[Doggy]

I don't have the same connections anymore at the Dogs, but I do have well-placed contacts at a couple of other clubs, and what I hear from them is contrary to a lot of what is posted here about re-signings. I hear through them that English, Garcia, and even Smith are all expected to sign extensions at the Dogs. Smith is not assured to stay but he is definitely not gone either - he is more likely than not to stay is what I hear (including from a Hawthorn staffer.)

Some of the carry-on here about Marra is juvenile and disrespectful. Every other team in the league would be ecstatic to have him, yet many of our fans show him no respect. It's simply embarrassing.

This would be good if it comes off.

Geelong now seem to be the ones "guaranteed" to land Smith

 

[GetDimmaBack]

This would be good if it comes off.

Geelong now seem to be the ones "guaranteed" to land Smith

Hmmm...what's a media ''guarantee'' worth?

As the old saying goes: ''...not worth the paper it's written on (in)''.

 

[Iamspock]

Time to show your true colours - were you a Jimmy Wongs or a Poons man?

Poons, definitely. Showing my age, I remember my Dad going to Poons with a saucepan, which was filled with fried rice and brought home. I thought it was the best fried rice in the entire world. From what I remember, the contents of Jimmy Wongs' dim sims were always questioned.

 

[maddog37]

It helps Bailey Smiths profile to be a constant discussion point in the media. No hurry for him to sign and remove his name from the circle jerk.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

I'd be stoked if Baz stays. His play style would be great in our "evolution". He's also been a super nice, genuine guy in the times I've met him. Shame he gets shit for his social media following - good on him!

 

[HK_Bulldog]

Poons, definitely. Showing my age, I remember my Dad going to Poons with a saucepan, which was filled with fried rice and brought home. I thought it was the best fried rice in the entire world. From what I remember, the contents of Jimmy Wongs' dim sims were always questioned.

The owners who ran Poons now run Diamond Palace in Sunshine. Same great food with some changes here and there for a broader customer base.

 

[Mojorisin]

I'd be stoked if Baz stays. His play style would be great in our "evolution". He's also been a super nice, genuine guy in the times I've met him. Shame he gets shit for his social media following - good on him!

It'd be great if all the guys we wanted to keep signed on this season. Would be great to put up those that were hoping for an exodus.

 

[DueWest]

Baz to sign a 2+2 contract. Earmarked as the first ever Forges 'ambassador', also will be spruiking Vern Smith Cycles in Ballarat Rd, Maidstone. Children's Palace above the Victoria St underpass throwing in a few bob too.

Club has booked him at the window table at Poon's once a month, and on the door at the Plough too. He's gonna be a busy boy, but raking in the $$$...

Hang on, there's some blokes in white coats knocking at the front door...

Don’t know about Vern Smith but Beasley Cycles (Victoria and Buckley) are extremely interested

 

[PurpJuice]

I saw a post from Geelong supporters on Facebook talking about their age profile next year. They included Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

in their calculations as if he’s already joined.

 

[Doggy Dan]

Geelong demanded 2 firsts and a high second (plus some other jostling) for a 25yo Tim Kelly. With the $ they are offering Baz that is absolutely what we should be demanding in return.

Wasn’t TK contracted?

 

[goodcop badcop]

Been practically saying since my first post that we don't make enough list changes. So to prove my point that we don't compared to others, I thought I'd add it all up and do a ladder to see where we rank over the last 12 years.

Team	List changes​	Yearly Average​
Carlton	123​	10.25​
Essendon	120​	10​
Suns	117​	9.75​
Kangaroos	113​	9.4​
Brisbane	112​	9.3​
Melbourne	111​	9.25​
Sydney	109​	9.1​
Magpies	109​	9.1​
Hawthorn	108​	9​
Saints	107​	8.9​
Geelong	105​	8.75​
Eagles	105​	8.75​
Power	104​	8.7​
Fremantle	102​	8.5​
GWS	98​	8.2​
Richmond	95​	7.9​
Bulldogs	94​	7.8​
Adelaide	91​	7.6​
League Average	106.8​	8.9​

As you can see, we are the 2nd most conservative team in terms of list changes. Richmond to my surprise was 3rd, but I think they are about to move into a high turnover phase given the age of some players and their current ladder position. As for us we are making 1 less change a year compared to the league average.

Why did I do a ladder over the last 12 years and not 8 or 10 do you ask? The reason why I did this is because Power and McCartney have both been our list managers for 6 years. In Power's case he's been here for 6 and a half. So I thought this is a good chance to compare the two.

Has anything changed? The answer to that is not really. Both McCartney and Power have made 47 list changes as it stands right now. But what needs to be said is Power has an extra 2 Cat B rookies that McCartney never had and just took on Rypstra in the mid season draft. So really, we've become more conservative under Power as we are making less changes to our main list.

I'm going to try and break this down further between the two and look at what draft picks we've had what picks we've got and given up at the trade table then table it all up. I also want to look at the average ages we've drafted and traded as it just seems we're drafting and trading older under Power. I think I'll start up a different thread for all this though.

 

[Mojorisin]

Been practically saying since my first post that we don't make enough list changes. So to prove my point that we don't compared to others, I thought I'd add it all up and do a ladder to see where we rank over the last 12 years.

Team	List changes​	Yearly Average​
Carlton	123​	10.25​
Essendon	120​	10​
Suns	117​	9.75​
Kangaroos	113​	9.4​
Brisbane	112​	9.3​
Melbourne	111​	9.25​
Sydney	109​	9.1​
Magpies	109​	9.1​
Hawthorn	108​	9​
Saints	107​	8.9​
Geelong	105​	8.75​
Eagles	105​	8.75​
Power	104​	8.7​
Fremantle	102​	8.5​
GWS	98​	8.2​
Richmond	95​	7.9​
Bulldogs	94​	7.8​
Adelaide	91​	7.6​
League Average	106.8​	8.9​

As you can see, we are the 2nd most conservative team in terms of list changes. Richmond to my surprise was 3rd, but I think they are about to move into a high turnover phase given the age of some players and their current ladder position. As for us we are making 1 less change a year compared to the league average.

Why did I do a ladder over the last 12 years and not 8 or 10 do you ask? The reason why I did this is because Power and McCartney have both been our list managers for 6 years. In Power's case he's been here for 6 and a half. So I thought this is a good chance to compare the two.

Has anything changed? The answer to that is not really. Both McCartney and Power have made 47 list changes as it stands right now. But what needs to be said is Power has an extra 2 Cat B rookies that McCartney never had and just took on Rypstra in the mid season draft. So really, we've become more conservative under Power as we are making less changes to our main list.

I'm going to try and break this down further between the two and look at what draft picks we've had what picks we've got and given up at the trade table then table it all up. I also want to look at the average ages we've drafted and traded as it just seems we're drafting and trading older under Power. I think I'll start up a different thread for all this though.

Great work! Look forward to seeing your findings once you've delved deeper.

 

[Bald]

Been practically saying since my first post that we don't make enough list changes. So to prove my point that we don't compared to others, I thought I'd add it all up and do a ladder to see where we rank over the last 12 years.

Team	List changes​	Yearly Average​
Carlton	123​	10.25​
Essendon	120​	10​
Suns	117​	9.75​
Kangaroos	113​	9.4​
Brisbane	112​	9.3​
Melbourne	111​	9.25​
Sydney	109​	9.1​
Magpies	109​	9.1​
Hawthorn	108​	9​
Saints	107​	8.9​
Geelong	105​	8.75​
Eagles	105​	8.75​
Power	104​	8.7​
Fremantle	102​	8.5​
GWS	98​	8.2​
Richmond	95​	7.9​
Bulldogs	94​	7.8​
Adelaide	91​	7.6​
League Average	106.8​	8.9​

As you can see, we are the 2nd most conservative team in terms of list changes. Richmond to my surprise was 3rd, but I think they are about to move into a high turnover phase given the age of some players and their current ladder position. As for us we are making 1 less change a year compared to the league average.

Why did I do a ladder over the last 12 years and not 8 or 10 do you ask? The reason why I did this is because Power and McCartney have both been our list managers for 6 years. In Power's case he's been here for 6 and a half. So I thought this is a good chance to compare the two.

Has anything changed? The answer to that is not really. Both McCartney and Power have made 47 list changes as it stands right now. But what needs to be said is Power has an extra 2 Cat B rookies that McCartney never had and just took on Rypstra in the mid season draft. So really, we've become more conservative under Power as we are making less changes to our main list.

I'm going to try and break this down further between the two and look at what draft picks we've had what picks we've got and given up at the trade table then table it all up. I also want to look at the average ages we've drafted and traded as it just seems we're drafting and trading older under Power. I think I'll start up a different thread for all this though.

All this data tells me is that there is minimal correlation between turn over and premiership success.

 

[W W Biscuit]

Wasn’t TK contracted?

My recollection is that Kelly wanted to leave the Cats after one season, but that they held him to the second, and final, year of his contract. Following that, he was traded to WC.

 

[Mojorisin]

All this data tells me is that there is minimal correlation between turn over and premiership success.

I took from it that you should be aiming for somewhere in between say an average of 8-9. Obviously age demographic of those brought in and delisted does have an effect but the initial stats show as I expected that its a detriment to cut too deep ala roos and blues causing an agressive bottoming out, but also too few changes causes teams to stagnate like Crows and Dogs.
The only exception I see to this is the Tigers who also had fewer list changes but were able to keep a premiership list relatively untouched whilst toping up, the list changes will naturally be deeper this year and next though.

 

[LittleG]

My recollection is that Kelly wanted to leave the Cats after one season, but that they held him to the second, and final, year of his contract. Following that, he was traded to WC.

That is correct.

The trade amount was so large due to Freo also being interested and WC wanting to secure him.

I would ask for the same from Geelolong….. they set that precedent.

 

[Bulldog Brent]

Anyone find it interesting that others who got their ACLs after Baz are starting to return or train for a return. Surely Baz has a chance over the next month or two?

 

[PurpJuice]

Anyone find it interesting that others who got their ACLs after Baz are starting to return or train for a return. Surely Baz has a chance over the next month or two?

Playing Baz would be a huge mistake, it’s a risk him injuring himself further and impacting his trade value


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Golden_6]

Anyone find it interesting that others who got their ACLs after Baz are starting to return or train for a return. Surely Baz has a chance over the next month or two?

Who is coming back?

I think it’s flat out ridiculous that someone like McStay is returning to action 7 months after an ACL injury. That just seems absurd.

We as a club have had a significant amount of ACL reinjuries so I don’t want to see him this season. Libba, Clay, Roarke, McLean, Bruce off the top of my head. Conservative is the way.

 

[Doggy]

Who is coming back?

I think it’s flat out ridiculous that someone like McStay is returning to action 7 months after an ACL injury. That just seems absurd.

We as a club have had a significant amount of ACL reinjuries so I don’t want to see him this season. Libba, Clay, Roarke, McLean, Bruce off the top of my head. Conservative is the way.

Doubtful we see him ever again in our colours

 

[Bald]

Who is coming back?

I think it’s flat out ridiculous that someone like McStay is returning to action 7 months after an ACL injury. That just seems absurd.

We as a club have had a significant amount of ACL reinjuries so I don’t want to see him this season. Libba, Clay, Roarke, McLean, Bruce off the top of my head. Conservative is the way.

It was reported last night by Mitch Cleary that Docherty is a chance to play throughout the finals series.

Although from memory similar conversations were had about Bob Murphy potentially being ready on grand final day in 2016, but the risk wasn't worth it.

 

[Golden_6]

It was reported last night by Mitch Cleary that Docherty is a chance to play throughout the finals series.

Although from memory similar conversations were had about Bob Murphy potentially being ready on grand final day in 2016, but the risk wasn't worth it.

Docherty injured his in the opening round of the season. Again, that is just a ridiculous time frame.

He may be willing to take the high risk given his age, Blues finals hopes and previous knee history but it’s not something we should consider.

 

[Bald]

Docherty injured his in the opening round of the season. Again, that is just a ridiculous time frame.

He may be willing to take the high risk given his age, Blues finals hopes and previous knee history but it’s not something we should consider.

Agreed, which is why Bailey Smith has been listed as "season" on the injury report, whereas Docherty is listed as "indefinite" on Carltons. Baz won't play in 2024 (even I had thought it may be a possibility earlier in the year - but common sense is that he simply can not).

 

[goodcop badcop]

All this data tells me is that there is minimal correlation between turn over and premiership success.

Alright this is the list of the 8 premiers in that 12 year period. I also added a basic breakdown of what each club did. I’ll try to break it down further in the future as I am curious to know how we compare against them in the draft and trade period.

Teams	Trades/Free Agency	National Draft Picks	Rookie Picks	Mid Season Picks	Total List Changes
Melbourne	43​	41​	23​	4​	111​
Sydney	20​	47​	35​	7​	109​
Collingwood	33​	44​	26​	6​	109​
Hawthorn	34​	39​	28​	7​	108​
Geelong	26​	49​	28​	2​	105​
West Coast	26​	48​	26​	5​	105​
Richmond	22​	43​	23​	7​	95​
Bulldogs	28​	46​	17​	3​	94​

The majority of them are making around 1 more change than us a year. The obvious odd one out here is Richmond and I think they’ve made a mistake recently. In the last 5 years they made just 34 changes which is a low number. The problem was they thought they were still in a premiership window when they really weren't the last few years and sold the farm for Tarranto and Hopper. The highest draft pick they had in the last two drafts was pick 40 so you can understand why they didn’t cut that deep. They will surely have to this year.