Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 6 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[TylerDurden]

Hawthorn are doing a much better job at not letting their interest leak out to the media, but I have my intel they're just as interested as Geelong.

He might (even probably) will still end up at Geelong so there's no real way to disprove what Cleary's saying but it shows you how ridiculous the media is sometimes. It isn't a done deal. Smith is still weighing up different clubs, but Cleary is only getting leaks from an overconfident Geelong.

We haven't leaked one iota of info on this. Which should tell you something.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

We haven't leaked one iota of info on this. Which should tell you something.

You're too smart of a club to allow this to influence your thinking when you're still a chance at the flag this year - plenty of time to worry about list management when the season's over.

Unlike Geelong, who are every chance to be a straight sets team this year.

 

[The Slitherin' Snake]

Fun little fact I came across today while doing some research - In the history of the game there have only been 12 players 200+cm and of those 12 we currently have 3 of them on our list - Darcy, English, Lobb.

Sorry but this just isn’t true.
Looking at r24 match ups these current players are all 200cm or more

Xerri
Reeves
Chol
Treakle
Gawn
D Cameron
Cox
D Moore
B Brown

I’m at 9 in two games. Plus our 3 and that’s 12

 

[FootyLad0]

You're too smart of a club to allow this to influence your thinking when you're still a chance at the flag this year - plenty of time to worry about list management when the season's over.

Unlike Geelong, who are every chance to be a straight sets team this year.

I mean every top 4 team is every chance to go straight sets every year, that's what happens when you finish top 4.
Cats just have a very good record in Semi Finals so it'll be interesting if they do go in "straight sets"

Hawks for example have done it twice in a short 5 year period not that long ago as have Lions and Dees.
Cats have done it once in 15 year period (2013)

I would say Cats being loud in the media is because they are confident they can land Bailey (if it even is coming from the club)
Whether it happens or not doesn't make anyone's list management strategy better or worse.

 

[PurpJuice]

I mean every top 4 team is every chance to go straight sets every year, that's what happens when you finish top 4.
Cats just have a very good record in Semi Finals so it'll be interesting if they do go in "straight sets"

Hawks for example have done it twice in a short 5 year period not that long ago as have Lions and Dees.
Cats have done it once in 15 year period (2013)

I would say Cats being loud in the media is because they are confident they can land Bailey (if it even is coming from the club)
Whether it happens or not doesn't make anyone's list management strategy better or worse.

Might indicate the deal is already done, which implies Cats have agreed to their 1st + f1 for Baz.

If they’re offering unders, you’d think it’d go to the very last day of trade period and they’d be less confident.

 

[FootyLad0]

Might indicate the deal is already done, which implies Cats have agreed to their 1st + f1 for Baz.

If they’re offering unders, you’d think it’d go to the very last day of trade period and they’d be less confident.

Might have a point there, we won't know until Trade Period either way.
He could very easily pick Hawks or elsewhere and media will look like fools.

There is no guarantee. What we do know is that Doggies will be compensated with at minimum a 2024 First Round pick. What gets added on after that and by whom is the sticking point.

 

[RWnBluey]

Sorry but this just isn’t true.
Looking at r24 match ups these current players are all 200cm or more

Xerri
Reeves
Chol
Treakle
Gawn
D Cameron
Cox
D Moore
B Brown

I’m at 9 in two games. Plus our 3 and that’s 12

Looks like google has let me down. Oh well. Let’s roll with your stats.

 

[Hoges64]

It's times like this you know the AFL media are playing the part of "advocating for teams they support / the big clubs".

Cleary is a Geelong supporter, no?

It feels like so often a media personality is either pushing the story that their team is balls deep for a player when it's equally as likely he's going to another club, or they're used as a pawn by the big clubs to try and publicly persuade player X to join one of the big clubs. Big players going to big clubs brings eyeballs and sponsors and dollars and the like.

I'll not be swayed from this opinion. Tell me that if Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

was heading to one of St Kilda, North or Carlton what the stories would be....

 

[Bulldogs85]

It's times like this you know the AFL media are playing the part of "advocating for teams they support / the big clubs".

Cleary is a Geelong supporter, no?

It feels like so often a media personality is either pushing the story that their team is balls deep for a player when it's equally as likely he's going to another club, or they're used as a pawn by the big clubs to try and publicly persuade player X to join one of the big clubs. Big players going to big clubs brings eyeballs and sponsors and dollars and the like.

I'll not be swayed from this opinion. Tell me that if Bailey Smith was heading to one of St Kilda, North or Carlton what the stories would be....

Yes Clearly is a Geelong supporter

 

[Sentinel]

Fun little fact I came across today while doing some research - In the history of the game there have only been 12 players 200+cm and of those 12 we currently have 3 of them on our list - Darcy, English, Lobb.

On that topic, I posted this in 2022:

List of tallest pairs playing together in the same AFL game:
1. Jarrod Witts (209cm) + Mason Cox (211cm)
2. Rory Lobb (207cm) + Aaron Sandilands (211cm)
3. Robbie Warnock (206cm) + Aaron Sandilands (211cm)
4. Tim English (207cm) + Sam Darcy (209cm*)

Fair to say this will easily be the tallest trio in AFL history when they play together.

*unofficial until records are updated following his growth spurt, Darcy's height was officially 205cm this season

As of 2024 English and Darcy are both now listed at 208cm.

 

[BrunswickDog]

If I was Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

's manager, and wanted to drive up his price, these leaks are exactly how I would do it.

Look for the Godfather offer.. .

 

[JTCWBFC]

I’m sure this has come up in here already. But does anyone know (or think they know) why smith is allegedly so keen to leave?

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I’m sure this has come up in here already. But does anyone know (or think they know) why smith is allegedly so keen to leave?

We're offering him two years at 800k. He'll get five or six years at 1.2 or 1.3 million wherever he goes.

It's not that he necessarily wants to leave (nor does he have any desire to take a pay cut to stay), it's as a very unique player on and off the field other clubs are going to make him one of the highest-paid players in the league.

 

[W W Biscuit]

I'm delighted to inform everyone that JUH's supposed family member, who has been reliably informing bomberblitz since 2020 that JUH is desperate to be at Essendon and will get there ASAP, is still going as of July 28

View attachment 2087052

I'm confused. JUH wants to play for a massive club, and yet is destined for Essendon?

 

[GetDimmaBack]

I’m sure this has come up in here already. But does anyone know (or think they know) why smith is allegedly so keen to leave?

I've never really found anything concrete on this either.

All I ever find is, "he's gone" to (insert club here), or various rumours which contradict each other.

Perhaps we'll get lots of "...no idea, but he's gone", responses, JTCWBFC.

 

[Guido]

The dogs have been keeping an eye on Rayner for a long time. He will be fielding free agency offers next year but he has been sounded out in case he wants to come home a year earlier.

I think I've seen a few posts mention Rayner as a potential target as a pre-agent.

Can someone explain why we'd try to pry Rainer out a year before Free Agency?

If he's happy to come to us this year, then surely he'd be ok with selecting us next year, as long the wages/terms were still up there?

I know it introduces risk of losing him to a change of mind or someone trumping our offer in the next 12 months - but those risks could be counter-balanced by risks of a massive loss of form or a long term injury bringing any contract offer down.

Making the assumption that everything remains equal and he'd be happy to move across to us next year, surely possibly swapping a first rounder (+ who knows what) to get him this year rather than next (for zero cost in trade capital) is silly?

How is essentially swapping, say, a first rounder for one extra year of his contributions, good business?

 

[bobs head soup]

I’m sure this has come up in here already. But does anyone know (or think they know) why smith is allegedly so keen to leave?

Purely from what has been posted here and on woof over the last year, it seems more the case that the club (staff and players) have tired of Smith and his difficulties and we've given him an offer well below market, happy to move him on.

 

[weltschmerz]

I think I've seen a few posts mention Rayner as a potential target as a pre-agent.

Can someone explain why we'd try to pry Rainer out a year before Free Agency?

If he's happy to come to us this year, then surely he'd be ok with selecting us next year, as long the wages/terms were still up there?

I know it introduces risk of losing him to a change of mind or someone trumping our offer in the next 12 months - but those risks could be counter-balanced by risks of a massive loss of form or a long term injury bringing any contract offer down.

Making the assumption that everything remains equal and he'd be happy to move across to us next year, surely possibly swapping a first rounder (+ who knows what) to get him this year rather than next (for zero cost in trade capital) is silly?

How is essentially swapping, say, a first rounder for one extra year of his contributions, good business?

I think if he's out, Brisbane would rather trade him now than get FA compensation next year because they'd get more in trade. They've got the reins right now because he's in contract.

 

[Dog 36]

We're offering him two years at 800k. He'll get five or six years at 1.2 or 1.3 million wherever he goes.

It's not that he necessarily wants to leave (nor does he have any desire to take a pay cut to stay), it's as a very unique player on and off the field other clubs are going to make him one of the highest-paid players in the league.

Glad the club has stuck to the offer then.

I seriously find it hard to believe clubs would be offering that for him

If we were to pay him what others are offering even $1.0M I would hate to see what Bont, Darcy, JUH, Richards etc etc would ask for.

Bailey Smith will never be an elite midfielder when he butchers the ball like he does.

 

[grassman75]

I'm confused. JUH wants to play for a massive club, and yet is destined for Essendon?

They are a massive disappointment….so i guess its still massive

 

[Mojorisin]

I think I've seen a few posts mention Rayner as a potential target as a pre-agent.

Can someone explain why we'd try to pry Rainer out a year before Free Agency?

If he's happy to come to us this year, then surely he'd be ok with selecting us next year, as long the wages/terms were still up there?

I know it introduces risk of losing him to a change of mind or someone trumping our offer in the next 12 months - but those risks could be counter-balanced by risks of a massive loss of form or a long term injury bringing any contract offer down.

Making the assumption that everything remains equal and he'd be happy to move across to us next year, surely possibly swapping a first rounder (+ who knows what) to get him this year rather than next (for zero cost in trade capital) is silly?

How is essentially swapping, say, a first rounder for one extra year of his contributions, good business?

It would be a risk on the both teams part and on rayners.
From the dogs perspective.
This year he may have less teams competing for his signature compared to free agency where there is no trade cost. which would drive a contract price up.
If the dogs wait another year that could mean another year with an inferior list.
Waiting another year could also see another club sell their dream and cut in line.

From Rayners perspective.
Signing a deal now is a guarantee where as if he holds off another year his form could drop or an injury could occur lowering his value.
Midfield minutes, next year there will be few midfield minutes to go around at the Lions with more mids coming in/stepping up.
Team success what team would rayner rate higher list wise and more capable of getting him a flag in 2025.

From Brisbane's perspective.
Trading Rayner likely nets them more then the band one compensation he likely triggers (pick after natural pick in first round), Lions shouldn't fall out of the 8 next year even without rayner so pick 12 is best case scenario (potentially pick 19)
Does Brisbane think Rayner would help them win the premiership in 2025? If so theyre better off holding and taking the lower return. Injury or form drop off is also a risk to the lions, i doubt any slump or injury puts him below band 1 territory but if he does regress they're less chance of a premiership and only get compensation rather then a trade larger then that single pick.

 

[Guido]

It would be a risk on the both teams part and on rayners.
From the dogs perspective.
This year he may have less teams competing for his signature compared to free agency where there is no trade cost. which would drive a contract price up.
If the dogs wait another year that could mean another year with an inferior list.
Waiting another year could also see another club sell their dream and cut in line.

From Rayners perspective.
Signing a deal now is a guarantee where as if he holds off another year his form could drop or an injury could occur lowering his value.
Midfield minutes, next year there will be few midfield minutes to go around at the Lions with more mids coming in/stepping up.
Team success what team would rayner rate higher list wise and more capable of getting him a flag in 2025.

From Brisbane's perspective.
Trading Rayner likely nets them more then the band one compensation he likely triggers (pick after natural pick in first round), Lions shouldn't fall out of the 8 next year even without rayner so pick 12 is best case scenario (potentially pick 19)
Does Brisbane think Rayner would help them win the premiership in 2025? If so theyre better off holding and taking the lower return. Injury or form drop off is also a risk to the lions, i doubt any slump or injury puts him below band 1 territory but if he does regress they're less chance of a premiership and only get compensation rather then a trade larger then that single pick.

To be clear, I have no questions on Brisbane's or Rayner's thinking/incentives re: pulling the trigger early, should they choose the earlier trade/contract. Plenty of reasons it would be in their best interests.

But purely from our perspective, IMO the odds are against it being a good value play. A first round pick for an additonal 12 months of his contributions is a massive amount to pay. Our club stakeholders would HAVE to consider it likely to be the difference between a flag or not, for it to even be considered? But when clubs typically overpay for "the final piece of the puzzle", it rarely plays out that way...

On the potential negatives of missing out on him altogether if we don't move now, if in 12 months he chooses elsewhere, we still have the first rounder, which could be net a player just as good as him or used in a package for an elite player. But if we do get him as planned 12 months later, it's perfect, we still have the first rounder.

IMO it would be such a high stakes, almost seemingly desperate, move. Back ourselves in to be his best option in 12 months.

And if we miss out, sometimes our big offers that don't get over the line save us from ourselves.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

Purely from what has been posted here and on woof over the last year, it seems more the case that the club (staff and players) have tired of Smith and his difficulties and we've given him an offer well below market, happy to move him on.

I don’t think it is an unreasonable offer from the Bulldogs, he was poor in 2023, sat out 2024 with a ACL, and it will take a bit to get him back to speed in 2025. The offer we have for him is based on what he is worth. Geelong are desperate for decent youth, Hawthorn is trying to “bring him home”, let them fight it out, and we come out with good picks in a midfielders strong draft.

 

[ScragCity]

If you have a chance to bring in a player of Rayner's quality then you just get it done. You don't fart around to try to save an extra draft pick.

 

[scooter600x]

To be clear, I have no questions on Brisbane's or Rayner's thinking/incentives re: pulling the trigger early, should they choose the earlier trade/contract. Plenty of reasons it would be in their best interests.

But purely from our perspective, IMO the odds are against it being a good value play. A first round pick for an additonal 12 months of his contributions is a massive amount to pay. Our club stakeholders would HAVE to consider it likely to be the difference between a flag or not, for it to even be considered? But when clubs typically overpay for "the final piece of the puzzle", it rarely plays out that way...

On the potential negatives of missing out on him altogether if we don't move now, if in 12 months he chooses elsewhere, we still have the first rounder, which could be net a player just as good as him or used in a package for an elite player. But if we do get him as planned 12 months later, it's perfect, we still have the first rounder.

IMO it would be such a high stakes, almost seemingly desperate, move. Back ourselves in to be his best option in 12 months.

And if we miss out, sometimes our big offers that don't get over the line save us from ourselves.

We also had the opportunity to sign Barry Hall from the Swans a year earlier than we did but the Swans wanted our first rounder (pick 13). We wanted to keep our first round pick for our father-son draftee, Ayce Cordy.

I'm guessing there's probably been more than just me on this board who has thought from time to time; what might have we been able to do with Baz in 2009?

Zac Dawson was St Kilda's full back, just saying.