Strategy Trade and List Management Thread Part 7 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[JTCWBFC]

Who’s the best small forward not currently in the afl?

 

[redmania]

Who’s the best small forward not currently in the afl?

They're a kid at werribee that looks good. Can't remember his name. Harry geintell or Flynn young

 

[VitalDread]

Who’s the best small forward not currently in the afl?

Eddie Betts is playing local footy if that counts haha

 

[Spiritof82]

How many rubbish games short of 100 did his father Terry play for us? Boy, those Bulldogs teams of the early 80s were tough to watch.

Terry played 31 games for us, they were a bit like getting your teeth filled without painkiller, just 31 times more painful

 

[FoochPackage]

no draft picks

Can't trade if you don't have

we will have a 1st this year and 1st next year at a minimum. Its not an excuse

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Who’s the best small forward not currently in the afl?

Phoenix Spicer
(ducks)

 

[Bald]

we will have a 1st this year and 1st next year at a minimum. Its not an excuse

And we are linked to players? What’s the issue?

 

[WB_]

Forgetting contract length 2025 could be the last season for Libba, ADZ, Jones and Duryea. All in their 30s

Libba one concussion away.
ADZ form was good in 2024 but a dodgy calf.
Jones 34 next season and form slipped a little after knee injury.
Duryea surely last season.

Treloar just had a career best season, made the all-australian team while playing 23/24 possible games. Extremely unlikely next year is his last, unless his priorities shift away from the sport.

 

[SweatOnMySkin]

regardless of when Ads or Libba actually finish up the time for planning for life without them is now
We need to get some youth in via the draft and we need to prioritise Sanders development next year.

 

[geoffjennings79]

Can we send Smith AND Macrae to the Suns for their first 6 picks? Does anyone see any issue with this?

 

[Norm De Guerre]

You can never ever never ever replace Libba

Challenge is to get as close as possible that is the best you can do.

No you can't and were beginning to reap the wind that we sowed by not finding a way to rotate him in and out of the coal face. The problem that nobody ever seems to address is the fact that Libba and The Bont have been intractable cornerstones of our midfield to such an extent that it has forced quality mids to look to pastures anew. Just for opportunities to play one of the coveted roles as a starting mid a position that all of the games elite mids see as a god given birthright.

I don't think it's hard to argue that we lost all of Dunkley, Lipinski Smith and probably Macrae due to the Libba and Bont shaped elephant in our list management room. This is the price we've have to pay for the stability that two champions bring to the side. That Lipinski found and Smith is likely to find himself in teh same position at their respective new clubs is a lessen that they learn the hard way. The Saints are recruiting Macrae specifically for the role that Libba and The Bont stop him from playing with us. Much the same goes for Dunkley.

None of these footballing alphas want play the demeaning mostly unrewarded role that is the next step down. That of high half forward pushing into the midfield*.

And the wing has reverted to a specialists role of days gone by.



*Or the ruck.

The problem with SDK is that he's a young, contracted and highly-rated key position player that on an open market would be worth more than an uncontracted, young and very good mid coming off an ACL.

He would unquestionably improve us, but the prospect of attaching another asset to Smith, when we already don't have a first round pick this year, and not getting a midfielder in return would be in my opinion a terrible list management decision.

The actual problem is that the idea of a gun player coming off a long term injury being tradable due to him not being rushed into a side that is humming coming into a prelim. Is as fantastical as anything L. Ron Hubbard ever shat out in the name of science fiction.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

No you can't and were beginning to reap the wind that we sowed by not finding a way to rotate him in and out of the coal face. The problem that nobody ever seems to address is the fact that Libba and The Bont have been intractable cornerstones of our midfield to such an extent that it has forced quality mids to look to pastures anew. Just for opportunities to play one of the coveted roles as a starting mid a position that all of the games elite mids see as a god given birthright.

I don't think it's hard to argue that we lost all of Dunkley, Lipinski Smith and probably Macrae due to the Libba and Bont shaped elephant in our list management room. This is the price we've have to pay for the stability that two champions bring to the side. That Lipinski found and Smith is likely to find himself in teh same position at their respective new clubs is a lessen that they learn the hard way. The Saints are recruiting Macrae specifically for the role that Libba and The Bont stop him from playing with us. Much the same goes for Dunkley.

None of these footballing alphas want play the demeaning mostly unrewarded role that is the next step down. That of high half forward pushing into the midfield*.

I think this is a slightly unfair characterisation. I wouldn't describe it as a "problem" or a "price to pay" but just a necessary by-measure of a competition that allows for equalisation and the end-point of the team having more success than failure over the last 10 years.

It's also not as if losing these players doesn't reap benefits into the longer term - we will get draft picks for Dunkley and Smith that should help sustain us above and beyond the usual equalisation cycle, and in an indirect way, should sustain us for the next 20 years (as people have often pointed out with the "successful" drafting of Jordan McMahan, which got us a trade, which got us a pick for Ward, which got us a compensaion pick, which got us Macrae, which might get us an improvement in the next draft position. Ultimately this is the competition's equalisation practice working - for competitive balance, fan interest and pure fairness in a moral sense you want all teams with somewhat of a chance to win the flag over the long term, but as a majority of the clubs are still member-run with the intent of winning games of football, you still want to reward when clubs do these things well, like good quality coaching, drafting, talent development, list management and negotiating with other clubs and player managers (things we have done well over 10 years, so we deserve to get better draft picks through trading out these players that has meant our quality of draft picks over the last 5 years has been better than our ladder positions suggest).

I would also characterise that you're overstating the pure excellence of how well some of these players play, and the fact that they didn't get opportunities that their demonstrated talent proves. Bailey Smith's centre bounce attendances dropped from 52% to 30% from 2022 to 2023, because he simply lost form as a footballer. But he still had opportunity (through attending 40% of centre bounces over two years) to prove that he could be as good a footballer as Bont and Libba. He didn't.

 

[Dogs Rule]

Can we send Smith AND Macrae to the Suns for their first 6 picks? Does anyone see any issue with this?
View attachment 2115518

When it comes to high draft picks, the Suns remind me of this.

So if there's any way to get involved with them...

 

[SweatOnMySkin]

as far as our midfield rotations, it was really the Treloar recruitment that became the spanner in the works as far as breaking into the midfield for other players. Love Ads, and he's been great but it knocked everone bar bont and libba 1 spot further from getting the midfield role they wanted

 

[adogsfan5]

I would fully expect a player coming alongside a pick for Bailey Smith

Geelong don't want to offload their future pick atm
Probs have their sights on a big fish next year

Only guys I’d be interested in are SDK or osullivan. I don’t rate Jyhe Clark at all. Any other big names aren’t realistic.

 

[NthBondiDoggies]

We all understand why Macrae would leave but unless we get a good pick for him - why would we do it?

Did we use him in the best way? We saw that as the year went on Bont’s firm dropped off. He carries too much load and his ability to swing forward is limiting a great asset. Trelor is also playing well but like Danger needs to be managed for us to get a couple more years out of him.

I would play Macrae much more in Bont role - but as part of a clear second line midfield. Ie Bont, Trelor and Libba are line one and Macrae, West:Garcia and Sanders - there is a transition from one line to the other but we need to get the group to function as a unit. Today Bont goes out or forward and the team plays like Bont is still there. They need to bring something different.

We also need to increase the movement of our dinosaurs - having three talls makes us slow. All are daily mobile but we want to jump there intensity without burning them out. A way of doing this is having Bont as a forward rotation.

I would also look at rotations of Naughty down back - I am not saying this should be permanent but more like Grant- to go where the heat is. The VFL team did this very well with Khamis in the first final this year. Today if a player is getting beaten (JOD against Dear) and Khamis against Fogarty) we have little we can do. If we move Naughty down, Bont forward and Jack into mid we can deal with this.

 

[Ash1337]

Cats trade 16 F1 get 32 & Smith
Dogs trade Smith Macrae 32 Get 7 & 43
Saints Trade 7 & 43 get get Macrae 16, F1,

 

[threenewpadlocks]

We all understand why Macrae would leave but unless we get a good pick for him - why would we do it?

Did we use him in the best way? We saw that as the year went on Bont’s firm dropped off. He carries too much load and his ability to swing forward is limiting a great asset. Trelor is also playing well but like Danger needs to be managed for us to get a couple more years out of him.

I would play Macrae much more in Bont role - but as part of a clear second line midfield. Ie Bont, Trelor and Libba are line one and Macrae, West:Garcia and Sanders - there is a transition from one line to the other but we need to get the group to function as a unit. Today Bont goes out or forward and the team plays like Bont is still there. They need to bring something different.

We also need to increase the movement of our dinosaurs - having three talls makes us slow. All are daily mobile but we want to jump there intensity without burning them out. A way of doing this is having Bont as a forward rotation.

I would also look at rotations of Naughty down back - I am not saying this should be permanent but more like Grant- to go where the heat is. The VFL team did this very well with Khamis in the first final this year. Today if a player is getting beaten (JOD against Dear) and Khamis against Fogarty) we have little we can do. If we move Naughty down, Bont forward and Jack into mid we can deal with this.

We played better football in 2024 when we explicitly gave up trying to make Macrae an onballer anymore. As the saying goes the proof is in the pudding. It wasn't as if what you were describing wasn't an attempt to happen in 2024, and we lost games!

We went 3 wins, 5 losses with Macrae playing centre bounce this year. One of those three wins was where he attended just one center bounce for the game (hardly counts). A bit of an oversimplification but the point remains.

He's not in demand by any team, given his age and decline in form true for us is also true for other teams - other than St Kilda, who had no less than 10 different players attend no more than 227 but no less than 42 individual centre bounces last year (out of 592). Compare to just 4 players for the Dogs (Sanders, Gallagher, Garcia, Macrae himself). In other words, they need him, or any other cheaply acquirable player who has somewhat proven to be able to play at least some centre bounce minutes over the last 3 seasons.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Cats trade 16 F1 get 32 & Smith
Dogs trade Smith Macrae 32 Get 7 & 43
Saints Trade 7 & 43 get get Macrae 16, F1,

I wouldn't be paying F1 and 16 for pick 7, let alone including a downgrade from 32 to 43 for the benefit of doing so. You almost wouldn't pay pick 16 + pick 18 for 7, and that's the best case scenario if Geelong win the flag next year. On the other hand, Geelong could miss finals (pick 9), or even collapse in a heap, finishing bottom 7 (any pick better than the pick 7 we're trading for).

 

[spindles11]

Sam Davidson from Richmond VFL anyone? Won the VFL rising star. Started the season on a wing and got moved forward through injuries to other players. 6 ft 3 and runs a quick 2km time trial

 

[Ash1337]

I wouldn't be paying F1 and 16 for pick 7, let alone including a downgrade from 32 to 43 for the benefit. You almost wouldn't pay pick 16 + pick 18 for 7, and that's the best case scenario if Geelong win the flag next year. On the other hand, Geelong could miss finals (pick 9), or even collapse in a heap, finishing bottom 7 (any pick better than the pick 7 we're trading for).

This is the year to do it. Having 1 of Langford or Reid at worse or best case Lalor JOS Smillie available at 7 would be a great replacement for Smith. 43 & 44 can be traded up for 28 from Dons or grab anyone that slips the top 30. Next season the trading scape changes in a big way so having 2 F1s could be huge it also isn't necessary.

 

[Sentinel]

We all understand why Macrae would leave but unless we get a good pick for him - why would we do it?

Did we use him in the best way? We saw that as the year went on Bont’s firm dropped off. He carries too much load and his ability to swing forward is limiting a great asset. Trelor is also playing well but like Danger needs to be managed for us to get a couple more years out of him.

I would play Macrae much more in Bont role - but as part of a clear second line midfield. Ie Bont, Trelor and Libba are line one and Macrae, West:Garcia and Sanders - there is a transition from one line to the other but we need to get the group to function as a unit. Today Bont goes out or forward and the team plays like Bont is still there. They need to bring something different.

We also need to increase the movement of our dinosaurs - having three talls makes us slow. All are daily mobile but we want to jump there intensity without burning them out. A way of doing this is having Bont as a forward rotation.

I would also look at rotations of Naughty down back - I am not saying this should be permanent but more like Grant- to go where the heat is. The VFL team did this very well with Khamis in the first final this year. Today if a player is getting beaten (JOD against Dear) and Khamis against Fogarty) we have little we can do. If we move Naughty down, Bont forward and Jack into mid we can deal with this.

The one reason why we might want to do it is because his salary likely exceeds his output by a fair margin. Even if he's playing every game and doing ok, he's likely not at the level of his contract which was signed on the back of 3 AA seasons.

Exactly just how big that contract is, and how important it is to get it off the books, is unknown by anyone outside of the club.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

This is the year to do it. Having 1 of Langford or Reid at worse or best case Lalor JOS Smillie available at 7 would be a great replacement for Smith. 43 & 44 can be traded up for 28 from Dons or grab anyone that slips the top 30. Next season the trading scape changes in a big way so having 2 F1s could be huge it also isn't necessary.

For players that are even yet to play one AFL game, how can you be that certain that Lalor/JOS/Similie will become a better footballer than the concept of Geelong's F1 (when adding it to the value of pick 16 this year).

The trading scape changes in a big way next year, but it's actually for the other direction, that 1st rounders hold more value to the 2nd and 3rd round with the updated points system. Therefore multiple 1st rounders hold more genuine value with the updated points system, because they aren't so cheaply acquired by teams bucketing together the points of 2nd and 3rd rounders.

 

[Bulldogs85]

Sam Davidson from Richmond VFL anyone? Won the VFL rising star. Started the season on a wing and got moved forward through injuries to other players. 6 ft 3 and runs a quick 2km time trial

It was Reported by Josh Gabelich on Sen Sportsday that us, Collingwood and GWS are interested in Sam Davidson

 

[VitalDread]

Cats trade 16 F1 get 32 & Smith
Dogs trade Smith Macrae 32 Get 7 & 43
Saints Trade 7 & 43 get get Macrae 16, F1,

I don't see Saints trading their 1st rounder unless they have a pick straight after from the Battle compo