Strategy Trade and List Management Thread Part 7 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[Doggy]

Source?

Bulldogs supoorter pessimism

 

[RedWhite&Blue]

Source?

Sorry just edited my post - my opinion only.

 

[El Rancho]

Those players are available if the team with access doesn't want to match though. Still the 20th rated player instead of the 15th is all I'm saying.

If the team doesn't want to match them, then the pick doesn't slide back, so not an issue.

We are talking about different things though and I'm happy to leave it at that. You are talking about player ratings and I'm talking about who is available to pick.

Either way, lets hope we get a few great kids through the door

 

[Bald]

I suspect Garcia re-signing with the club is reliant on the Dan Houston

5

Dan Houston

Age

27

Ht

186cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.2

5star

K

11.8

4star

HB

6.4

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

3.0

5star

MG

289.2

4star

D

17.6

4star

K

11.6

4star

HB

6.0

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.4

4star

MG

319.9

5star

D

16.6

4star

K

12.4

5star

HB

4.2

4star

M

7.0

5star

T

2.6

4star

MG

279.8

5star

to Collingwood deal getting done.

 

[Libbaaaa]

Looks like we are offering O'Halloran an extra 3 years on his existing deal to get him over.

 

[cherrypie]

Looks like we are offering O'Halloran an extra 3 years on his existing deal to get him over.

That’d be a long contract for a fringe player

 

[Doggy]

That’d be a long contract for a fringe player

He played 19 games this year..

 

[Dogs Rule]

I suspect Garcia re-signing with the club is reliant on the Dan Houston to Collingwood deal getting done.

To Collingwood? FFS.

I really hope we're not going to sit on our hands over the next week and a half.

Internal development on its own ain't gonna cut it.

 

[dergert]

Have we traded Bont yet?

 

[threenewpadlocks]

If the team doesn't want to match them, then the pick doesn't slide back, so not an issue.

We are talking about different things though and I'm happy to leave it at that. You are talking about player ratings and I'm talking about who is available to pick.

Either way, lets hope we get a few great kids through the door

But you have to look at it both ways.

A player being bidded on doesn't just suggest that those players, who are not avaliable to us, are good footballers.

It also suggests that the non-bidded on players (avaliable to us) may be worse footballers than initially thought, hence our desire to want to bid on those players in the first place.

If we had pick 1 next year but the best 10 talents were all father/sons not avaliable to us, we'd spend 10 times bidding on players then watching them matched. We wouldn't claim that our pick 11, the best player avaliable to us, is practically worth pick 1, because we'd all understand that the 11th best talent is equally because the best non-F/S is not that good a footballer, as much as it's becuase all the F/S happen to be magically better that year.

 

[Foxman98]

But you have to look at it both ways.

A player being bidded on doesn't just suggest that those players, who are not avaliable to us, are good footballers.

It also suggests that the non-bidded on players (avaliable to us) may be worse footballers than initially thought, hence our desire to want to bid on those players in the first place.

If we had pick 1 next year but the best 10 talents were all father/sons not avaliable to us, we'd spend 10 times bidding on players then watching them matched. We wouldn't claim that our pick 11, the best player avaliable to us, is practically worth pick 1, because we'd all understand that the 11th best talent is equally because the best non-F/S is not that good a footballer, as much as it's becuase all the F/S happen to be magically better that year.

The other thing never factored in is they are still available players 1)For the club who they are tied too 2)Dunkley Mosquito ect ones where bid isn't matched

 

[cherrypie]

He played 19 games this year..

Only 14 where he wasn’t sub or a late emergency in. He’s definitely a fringe player - 18th most games for GWS this year, with Kelly/Coniglio/Taylor playing fewer due to injury

 

[grassman75]

Have we traded Bont yet?

Next year

 

[RedWhite&Blue]

That would create more risk for the National Draft threat though right?

It would and that's why Sam needs to be on the phone to the teams that have picks in the Pre-Season Draft before Geelong to see if they'll take Smith against his wishes... like we did with Jade Rawlings in 2003. If we can't find a team willing to do that then any threats of walking him a 100% hollow.
For those to young to remember 2003 here is the story that ran after we railroaded Rawlings to join the Bulldogs:

Rawlings joins Dogs​

November 13, 2003 — 11.00am

The controversial "Veale deal" was consummated last night when Jade Rawlings, the once-reluctant and aggrieved party to the most unusual arrangement in AFL trade history, agreed to join the Western Bulldogs.
Only hours before leaving Melbourne for a Fijian honeymoon with wife Samantha, Rawlings accepted a four-year Bulldog offer believed to be worth more than $1.2million. The fourth year is conditional on Rawlings meeting specified per formance targets.
"I'm rapt to be finally going to the Western Bulldogs. Initially I had indicated I was keen to play with my brother (Brady), but now that the deal is done I'm delighted to be playing with the Bulldogs,"

Rawlings said. "The Western Bulldogs have treated me and my new wife Sam extremely well and they have been thoroughly professional in all their dealings with us.
"It's great to be going away knowing that I am at the Western Bulldogs and when I return I'm looking forward to getting back into training and meeting my new teammates."
His signing closed three weeks of conjecture about his intentions and should allow the former Hawthorn defender to begin pre-season training with his new teammates when he returns to Melbourne in 10 days.

Although the Bulldogs have chosen Rawlings in the pre-season draft, which will be held on December 16, the AFL is certain to grant him permission to commence training as soon as the contract is lodged.
In the same way, former Port Adelaide midfielder Nick Stevens and Carlton can formalise their arrangement and ask that he be allowed to start training at Optus Oval. The Blues have the second pick in the pre-season draft.

Bulldog coach Peter Rohde drove to the airport to speak with Rawlings last night, after spending several hours calling his players to tell them of the news.
He described the signing as structurally important for the team but symbolically important for his club.
"It (the signing) is obviously important because we can now be more certain of the set-up of our team. He's just the sort of player we need up forward," Rohde said.

"But I think also it is pretty important for the entire club. We made a pretty big stand, we took a risk. We could have taken the easy way out but we decided to stand on our digs and it's all been worthwhile."
The risk Rohde spoke of was to concoct a deal with Hawthorn last month that not only kept Rawlings from being traded to the club of his choice - the Kangaroos - but which drove him into the pre-season draft where it was difficult to elude the Bulldogs.

On face value, the deal handsomely rewarded the Hawks, who received Danny Jacobs from Essendon, and the Dons, who received Mark Alvey and a prized first-round national draft pick from the Dogs, but delivered only the unproven Hawthorn teenager Lochlan Veale to Whitten Oval.
As such, the arrangement became known as the "Veale deal". It drew immediate and sharp criticism from the AFL Players Association. The AFL released a statement only hours after the trade window closed that spoke of the integrity of its rules needing to be upheld.
Rawlings, 26, did not conceal his disappointment and was at first hostile to the prospect of becoming a Bulldog. His manager, Liam Pickering, sought advice from the AFLPA and later explored the possibility of his client entering the national draft to force the Bulldogs into overlooking him for teenage standout Adam Cooney.

"We were reasonably confident all the way along but some things you can't be certain of until they are done," said Rohde.
"We pulled a bit of a cat out of the bag by getting him past the trade period and from there we were always in the box seat but there was never any guarantee."

 

[grassman75]

And we got Cooney anyway.

Iirc Rawlings kicked 7? On debut v the eagles

 

[Sentinel]

It would and that's why Sam needs to be on the phone to the teams that have picks in the Pre-Season Draft before Geelong to see if they'll take Smith against his wishes... like we did with Jade Rawlings in 2003. If we can't find a team willing to do that then any threats of walking him a 100% hollow.
For those to young to remember 2003 here is the story that ran after we railroaded Rawlings to join the Bulldogs:

Rawlings joins Dogs​

November 13, 2003 — 11.00am

The controversial "Veale deal" was consummated last night when Jade Rawlings, the once-reluctant and aggrieved party to the most unusual arrangement in AFL trade history, agreed to join the Western Bulldogs.
Only hours before leaving Melbourne for a Fijian honeymoon with wife Samantha, Rawlings accepted a four-year Bulldog offer believed to be worth more than $1.2million. The fourth year is conditional on Rawlings meeting specified per formance targets.
"I'm rapt to be finally going to the Western Bulldogs. Initially I had indicated I was keen to play with my brother (Brady), but now that the deal is done I'm delighted to be playing with the Bulldogs,"

Rawlings said. "The Western Bulldogs have treated me and my new wife Sam extremely well and they have been thoroughly professional in all their dealings with us.
"It's great to be going away knowing that I am at the Western Bulldogs and when I return I'm looking forward to getting back into training and meeting my new teammates."
His signing closed three weeks of conjecture about his intentions and should allow the former Hawthorn defender to begin pre-season training with his new teammates when he returns to Melbourne in 10 days.

Although the Bulldogs have chosen Rawlings in the pre-season draft, which will be held on December 16, the AFL is certain to grant him permission to commence training as soon as the contract is lodged.
In the same way, former Port Adelaide midfielder Nick Stevens and Carlton can formalise their arrangement and ask that he be allowed to start training at Optus Oval. The Blues have the second pick in the pre-season draft.

Bulldog coach Peter Rohde drove to the airport to speak with Rawlings last night, after spending several hours calling his players to tell them of the news.
He described the signing as structurally important for the team but symbolically important for his club.
"It (the signing) is obviously important because we can now be more certain of the set-up of our team. He's just the sort of player we need up forward," Rohde said.

"But I think also it is pretty important for the entire club. We made a pretty big stand, we took a risk. We could have taken the easy way out but we decided to stand on our digs and it's all been worthwhile."
The risk Rohde spoke of was to concoct a deal with Hawthorn last month that not only kept Rawlings from being traded to the club of his choice - the Kangaroos - but which drove him into the pre-season draft where it was difficult to elude the Bulldogs.

On face value, the deal handsomely rewarded the Hawks, who received Danny Jacobs from Essendon, and the Dons, who received Mark Alvey and a prized first-round national draft pick from the Dogs, but delivered only the unproven Hawthorn teenager Lochlan Veale to Whitten Oval.
As such, the arrangement became known as the "Veale deal". It drew immediate and sharp criticism from the AFL Players Association. The AFL released a statement only hours after the trade window closed that spoke of the integrity of its rules needing to be upheld.
Rawlings, 26, did not conceal his disappointment and was at first hostile to the prospect of becoming a Bulldog. His manager, Liam Pickering, sought advice from the AFLPA and later explored the possibility of his client entering the national draft to force the Bulldogs into overlooking him for teenage standout Adam Cooney.

"We were reasonably confident all the way along but some things you can't be certain of until they are done," said Rohde.
"We pulled a bit of a cat out of the bag by getting him past the trade period and from there we were always in the box seat but there was never any guarantee."

The entire Rawlings/Veale situation was ick. Unsurprisingly he was a bust for us, as a player who didn't want to be there in the first place.

That year was a horror offseason for us, turning Nathan Brown, Mark Alvey, our pick 19 and our PSD pick 1 into Jade Rawlings, Steven Koops, Peter Street and Adam Morgan. God knows how we managed to get back into finals relatively quickly after that.

 

[Bald]

To Collingwood? FFS.

I really hope we're not going to sit on our hands over the next week and a half.

Internal development on its own ain't gonna cut it.

I suspect Joe Richards (who has just requested a trade to Port) will go with Gold Coasts pick 13 (which Collingwood will acquire) for Dan Houston and Port are keen on one of Richards or Garcia.

 

[Doggies_13]

But you get the 15th best "available" player. I understand that FS and academy picks are talented kids, but they are simply not available and we would never have had access to them.
I'm talking about AVAILABILITY, not talent list

It’s actually not the 15th best as free agency compo has pushed the pick to 17. So even ignoring the F/S and Academy players. We get the 17th ranked player from the open draftable players. The pick has already slid.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

The entire Rawlings/Veale situation was ick. Unsurprisingly he was a bust for us, as a player who didn't want to be there in the first place.

That year was a horror offseason for us, turning Nathan Brown, Mark Alvey, our pick 19 and our PSD pick 1 into Jade Rawlings, Steven Koops, Peter Street and Adam Morgan. God knows how we managed to get back into finals relatively quickly after that.

Ironically enough, the whole 2003 draft was probably the weakest in history, so the idea of trading out of it probably wasn't the worst idea", and didn't necessarily cost us, and getting Adam Morgan or Steven Koops was not worse than drafting any of the 16 players drafted in the top 35 that played fewer than 20 AFL games.

Though obviously we weren't to know that at the time and there wouldn't have been a perception in us making the decisions that the draft was "weak and it's possible players flopping at other clubs may have developed at us.

 

[Foxman98]

It’s actually not the 15th best as free agency compo has pushed the pick to 17. So even ignoring the F/S and Academy players. We get the 17th ranked player from the open draftable players. The pick has already slid.

And here’s the issue at 15 you’re probably getting the 17th-18th best “available” but the further it goes back the more academy players come in you’re getting the 23rd-25th range from moving 2 back,

Our original puck last year was 10 but wasn’t used until pick 13 and the Brisbane pick we had was 17 but wasn’t used until pick 23 the difference later on gets bigger and bigger

 

[Libbaaaa]

Dare I say Cooney making sense?

 

[Doggies_13]

Dare I say Cooney making sense?

View attachment 2133966

Problem is Pies want pick 13 to get Houston in.

 

[ossie_21]

Dare I say Cooney making sense?

View attachment 2133966

Horrible for us and great for Geelong, how surprising.

 

[Philthy1]

Dare I say Cooney making sense?

View attachment 2133966

except mega trades never happen

 

[threenewpadlocks]

And here’s the issue at 15 you’re probably getting the 17th-18th best “available” but the further it goes back the more academy players come in you’re getting the 23rd-25th range from moving 2 back,

Our original puck last year was 10 but wasn’t used until pick 13 and the Brisbane pick we had was 17 but wasn’t used until pick 23 the difference later on gets bigger and bigger

There's two factors at play here:

• If a father/son or academy player gets bidden on earlier, it is equally likely that the player available to us is suddenly worse as a footballer (say their athletic testing at the combine is more disappointing than anticipated) than it is that that father/son player has "risen")
• Even if that's not true and the player is equally as good in an absolute sense, footy is a zero sum game. Player ability is all relative and player value is all in relation to other players, because for every win there's a loss. If 17 aliens came from Mars and landed on earth and all teams except Brisbane got that alien to play for them, we would understand that Brisbane would be the worst team in the league next year, because they would be the only one without this footy-playing alien. It doesn't make the capacity of their existing list any worse in football skills, they can kick a footy just as well as they could this year. But the lack of availability of the Aliens means that their list is not good any more.

In other words, we are only getting the 20th best talent, and pick 20 is pick 20 is pick 20, irrespective of whether a father son player was "ever" "avaliable" to us.