Triple J Hottest 100 2024 - Now with added 200-101 and 2004 Throwback

[CURVE]

I haven't voted for about 10-15 years, so I went onto the Triple J website to have a look at the songs listed, and there are only two songs that I've heard, and they are both from the same group, Teen Jesus and Jean Teasers, a local band that came from the same Canberra suburb that I grew up in.

 

[Loonerty]

Warm Tunas is back with their accurate but not accurate predictions.

Their current top 10 (EXTREMELY early):

Spoiler

10. Amyl and the Sniffers - U Should Not Be Doing That
9. Fontaines D.C. - Starburster
8. Spacey Jane - One Bad Day
7. Charl xcx & Billie Eilish - Guess
6. Billie Eilish - Birds of a Feather
5. Ocean Alley - Tangerine
4. The Rions - Physical Medicine
3. Kendrick Lamar - Not Like Us
2. Chappell Roan - Good Luck, Babe!
1. Royel Otis - Murder On The Dancefloor (Like A Version)

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Warm Tunas is back with their accurate but not accurate predictions.

Their current top 10 (EXTREMELY early):

Spoiler

10. Amyl and the Sniffers - U Should Not Be Doing That
9. Fontaines D.C. - Starburster
8. Spacey Jane - One Bad Day
7. Charl xcx & Billie Eilish - Guess
6. Billie Eilish - Birds of a Feather
5. Ocean Alley - Tangerine
4. The Rions - Physical Medicine
3. Kendrick Lamar - Not Like Us
2. Chappell Roan - Good Luck, Babe!
1. Royel Otis - Murder On The Dancefloor (Like A Version)

I'd love it, but Starburster will still be lucky to make the 100 let alone the top 10. I feel the voters who send their votes to Warm Tunas are more aligned to Double J than the younger tik-tok crowd which skews the predictions.

 

[Loonerty]

I'd love it, but Starburster will still be lucky to make the 100 let alone the top 10. I feel the voters who send their votes to Warm Tunas are more aligned to Double J than the younger tik-tok crowd which skews the predictions.

Definitely, though I think it's still pretty good for judging what will make the countdown in a general sense.
5 of the top 10, 14 of the top 20, 28 of the top 50 and 70 of the 100. 159 of the 200 as well.

 

[JT_the_Man]

Warm Tunas is back with their accurate but not accurate predictions.

Their current top 10 (EXTREMELY early):

Spoiler

10. Amyl and the Sniffers - U Should Not Be Doing That
9. Fontaines D.C. - Starburster
8. Spacey Jane - One Bad Day
7. Charl xcx & Billie Eilish - Guess
6. Billie Eilish - Birds of a Feather
5. Ocean Alley - Tangerine
4. The Rions - Physical Medicine
3. Kendrick Lamar - Not Like Us
2. Chappell Roan - Good Luck, Babe!
1. Royel Otis - Murder On The Dancefloor (Like A Version)

Spoiler

I only really give 6 of those a genuine chance of being in the top 10 on the day. Top 3 probably not far off at all and will all make the top 10. Physical Medicine probably more between 20-40 imo, Tangerine similar although I’m probably underestimating the Ocean Alley fan base so maybe top 20-25. 6 & 7 seem pretty accurate, 8 who knows with Spacey fans, I’d say it will be in the top 20. I can’t see 9 or 10 being anywhere near the top 10, more likely to hear them in the 90s if at all especially Starburster.

 

[thewitness]

thewitness you doing a prediction again this year?

No, i'm done now (that's what I'm saying at the moment).

 

[NotAMagpieBogan]

Diet Pepsi by Addison Rae is a dark horse for top 10 imo, she was already reasonably big, but its blown up in the last month.

 

[JT_the_Man]

Just had another look at Tunas and the inaccuracy is only increasing with more data so far imo.

Spoiler

There is two Amyl songs in the top 10 and both Physical Medicine and Starburster have more votes than Good Luck Babe.

 

[Loonerty]

Just had another look at Tunas and the inaccuracy is only increasing with more data so far imo.

Spoiler

There is two Amyl songs in the top 10 and both Physical Medicine and Starburster have more votes than Good Luck Babe.

Like I said before I think Tunas is going to be good to get a sense of what will make the 100-200 and decent accuracy at what will comprise the top 10, but it won't get many spot on.

 

[JT_the_Man]

Like I said before I think Tunas is going to be good to get a sense of what will make the 100-200 and decent accuracy at what will comprise the top 10, but it won't get many spot on.

While I don’t disagree, I also wouldn’t be terribly shocked if half the current top 10 manage to finish outside the top 50.

 

[Schulzenfest]

That ****ing mediocre Murder on the Dance Floor cover being anywhere near #1 in the predictions is absurd. Sounds like a bunch of 16 year old boys practicing for their high school music exam. The guy can barely sing.

 

[JT_the_Man]

Spoiler

Don’t know how to feel about A Bar Song by Shaboozey cracking the top 10 on Tunas…

 

[notarobot]

Everytime I look at warm tunas the list changes drastically and the number of votes appears to go down or up randomly like he is deleting duplicates or not legit votes? I was pretty sure that fake votes bombed last year's list and it was happening again but not sure if he is correctly identify them.

 

[Loonerty]

Hmm I feel like whenever I look the total votes is only increasing

 

[notarobot]

At one point not like us had over 300 votes and was in first place while the Chappell roan was 7th. He has since removed about half of the the not like us votes. Plus other songs moved a bit.

 

[JT_the_Man]

At one point not like us had over 300 votes and was in first place while the Chappell roan was 7th. He has since removed about half of the the not like us votes. Plus other songs moved a bit.

Yeah noticed this a couple days ago, it pretty much reverted to the leaderboard from a week or so earlier.

 

[DaRenegade]

yeah not sure what’s happening with Tuna’s but it looks like we’ll be seeing a lot of Royal Otis and Charli XCX this year, the top 50 has been released now…

atleast we won’t have 7 Gender Flip songs to suffer through

 

[JT_the_Man]

I reckon Charli breaks G Flips record.

 

[Bring Back the Wave]

What's everyone's hot takes?
Here's a couple Ive been thinking of:
1. Bird of a Feather to win. Good Luck Babe is the obvious favourite but Billie has such a good hottest hundy history, I think she might be primed to edge out this one as it was a massive song.
2. Gracie Abrams to crack the top 10 with That's So True. Massive year for her and massive song, if it was earlier then a definite chance to win but I'm thinking Prada 2023 kinda uptick.
3. One Bad Day or/and Girl$ to be the highest Australian song on the countdown. Royel Otis had a massive year but are notorious sliders on 100WT. I'm thinking Rush for last year.
4. Leavemealone to poll higher than places to be. Same as last year where 100WT had Fred again with a song higher than the other. Has been the most streamed Fred song in the last 28 days which shows the longevity. Definite top 10.
5. Tangerine to be top 15. Tiktok reestablished OAs influence in Aussie indie with Confidence going viral again. Given it created more fans, I think it's definitely going to poll high

 

[JT_the_Man]

What's everyone's hot takes?
Here's a couple Ive been thinking of:
1. Bird of a Feather to win. Good Luck Babe is the obvious favourite but Billie has such a good hottest hundy history, I think she might be primed to edge out this one as it was a massive song.
2. Gracie Abrams to crack the top 10 with That's So True. Massive year for her and massive song, if it was earlier then a definite chance to win but I'm thinking Prada 2023 kinda uptick.
3. One Bad Day or/and Girl$ to be the highest Australian song on the countdown. Royel Otis had a massive year but are notorious sliders on 100WT. I'm thinking Rush for last year.
4. Leavemealone to poll higher than places to be. Same as last year where 100WT had Fred again with a song higher than the other. Has been the most streamed Fred song in the last 28 days which shows the longevity. Definite top 10.
5. Tangerine to be top 15. Tiktok reestablished OAs influence in Aussie indie with Confidence going viral again. Given it created more fans, I think it's definitely going to poll high

1 - I don’t see Birds of a Feather taking it tbh. I actually have Guess as my smoky, it’s risen as the most popular Charli track and has the Billie Eilish crossover appeal.
2 - Agree, I can see this. Definitely top 15.
3 - Wouldn’t surprise me.
4 - Again, wouldn’t surprise me. Only issue I could see is how early it released (December last year). Sometimes people forget / lean the newer track.
5 - Nah, I disagree tbh.

A couple of my own.

1. I like the way you kiss me to finish top 15 (don’t know if I’m game enough to say top 10, but I can see it). This song was massive earlier in the year, I expect it to outperform the Tunas ranking comfortably.
2. Guess top 3. Idk if it’s that hot of a take, but like I said I see it as a smoky now.
3. Messy top 10. Was massive on TikTok.
4. Diet Pepsi top 20. Is this a hot take? Idk. But somehow I expect it happens.
5. Charli breaks the record for most songs.
6. Lunch outperforms expectation while Birds of a Feather underperforms. Lunch to finish around 20, Birds of a Feather between 4-8.

 

[screech]

 

[Perko16]

Hottest prediction (2nd / Final)



1. Chappel Roan - Good luck, Babe!



Billie Eilish - BIRDS OF A FEATHER



Royel Otis - Murder On The Dancefloor (LAV)



Kendrick Lamar - Not Like Us



Lola Young - Messy



Spacey Jane - One Bad Day



Charli xcx & Billie Eilish - Guess



Dom dolla - Girls



G flip (LAV)



10. Fred again & baby k - Leave me alone





Gracie Abrams - That’s so true



Charli xcx, Lorde - girl, so confusing



Tommy Richman - Million dollar baby



LUNCH



Fred again.., anderson .Paak - Places to be



A bar song (Tipsy)



Dom dolla - Cave



Ocean alley - Tangerine



Backbone



20. Childish Gambino - Lithonia





Like love



Artemas - I like the way u kiss me



The Rions - Physical Medicine



Charli xcx - Apple



Lime Cordiale - Cold treatment



Sza - Saturn



Diet Pepsi



Post Malone & Morgan Wallen - I Had Some…



RUFUS DU SOL - Music Is Better



30. Olivia Rodrigo - Obsessed





kid laroi - Girls



Dua Lipa - Training season



Billie Eilish - WILDFLOWER



360



Billie Eilish - CHIHIRO



Glass animals - Creatures in heaven



RUFUS DU SOL - Lately



Dominic Fike - Misses



Fisher - Boost up



40. Von dutch





Sam Fender - People watching



Lime Cordiale - Enough of the sweet talk



Gracie Abrams - Risk



Bring Me The Horizon - Kool aid



Tyler the Creator - Sticky



Gigi Perez - Sailor song



Gracie Abrams - I love u, I’m sorry



Old mervs - What you’ve lost



Big Dawgs - Hanumankind



50. Glass animals - A tear in space





Thelma Plum - Nobody’s baby



Fred again ft Lil Yaughty - Stayinit



Skeggs - High beaming



Central Cee - b4b



Tate McRae - it’s ok…



Ruel & DMAs - What a life



Royal Otis - Heading out the door



Fred again - fear less



Doechii - Nissan Altima



60. Lime Cordiale - The Big Reveal; Ou L’Hypocrite





Hockey Dad - Safety Pin



Beyoncé - Texas hold ‘em



Charli xcx & Troye Sivan - Talk talk



Dice - Quick to judge



Kendrick Lamar - Luther ft Sza



Skeggs - Out of my head



Peach prc - Secret



U Should Not Be Doing That



Tyler the Creator - St. Chroma [Ft. Daniel Caesar]



70. the Weeknd - Dancing in the flames





Kendrick Lamar - tv off



365



Finneas - For Cryin' Out Loud!



Royal Otis - Foam



top10 staTues that cRieD bloOd



Sexy to someone



Quavo & Lana del ray - Tough



The Weeknd - Timeless



Joey Valence - The baddest (badder) ft ae



80. Lime Cordiale - Strangers





L’amour de ma ve



Rubens - Black ballon’s



Fontaines D.C. - Starburster



kid laroi - Baby I’m back



Pacific Avenue - Lucy



RUFUS DU SOL - Break my love



Teenage Dads - Weaponz / Boyfriend



Kendrick Lamar - euphoria



Peach prc



90. King Stingray - Through the trees





Good Neighbours - Home



Tyler the Creator - Noid



Hockey Dad - Base Camp



Billie ellish - The greatest



The Rions



Sonny fodera - Someday



Magdalena bay - Image



Budjarah - Is it ever going to make sense



beabadoobee - Beaches



100. Just stand there



Remi Wolf or RATATATA (101)

 

[thewitness]

No, i'm done now (that's what I'm saying at the moment).

DaRenegade
I've given in to temptation and have started rebuilding my prediction algorithm with last years results. Interesting if Charlie XCX of 2024 still shows the same massive over estimation in vote prediction counting as Charlie XCX of 2017, 2019 and 2021?

 

[JT_the_Man]

With voting shut I'll give a (somewhat bold I suppose, but this count always surprises) top 20 prediction.

1. Chappell Roan - Good Luck, Babe!
2. Kendrick Lamar - Not Like Us
3. Charli XCX feat. Billie Eilish - Guess
4. Lola Young - Messy
5. Dom Dolla - girl$
6. Spacey Jane - One Bad Day
7. Billie Eilish - Birds of a Feather
8. Royel Otis - Murder on the Dancefloor LAV
9. Gracie Abrams - That's So True
10. Fred again.., Anderson .Paak & Chika - places to be
11. G Flip - Cruel Summer LAV
12. Artemas - I like the way you kiss me
13. Fred again.. & Baby Keem - leavemealone
14. Charli XCX - Von dutch
15. Billie Eilish - Lunch
16. Charli XCX feat. Lorde - Girl, so confusing
17. Chase & Status and Stormy - BACKBONE
18. Charli XCX - 360
19. Addison Rae - Diet Pepsi
20. Dom Dolla & Tove Lo - CAVE


For those curious I've also been dabbling in a bit of coding lately and tried to build a prediction model. It's simple and rough around the edges mainly cause I haven't had time to sort out as much data as I would like / fix all the discrepancies with naming conventions across different datasets, so I'm not even gonna bother posting the full results unless I (highly unlikely) find some time between now and Saturday to properly work out all the kinks and finish it... But I will say that it has consistently had Birds of a Feather winning.