Triple J hottest 100 of 2012 Prediction thread.

[kBuck]

Any love for Pull Out My Insides by Does it Offend You, Yeah? on here? My mate had it in his car last night and I'd forgotten what a ripping track it was.

Could sneak in! I wouldn't completely rule it out at this stage. Picking the back 20 is harder than picking the top 20 I reckon!

Regurgitator released their album around the same time that some other very good music came out. However, based on their big fan base and past successes I wouldn't be shocked if it they had something in around 95-100.

 

[thewitness]

I think Pull Out My Insides by Does it Offend You, Yeah? will probably fall a bit short of the Top 100. Havn't seen many votes for the Gurg yet.

 

[Piko]

Could sneak in! I wouldn't completely rule it out at this stage. Picking the back 20 is harder than picking the top 20 I reckon!

Yer, when i counted votes there were about 60 songs possible of finishing 100-80, go's to show you never can tell.

 

[smiddy9]

Had a shortlist of like 200 and that was being strict, how i cut it to this i dont know, my number 1 was Sing it by Drapht just for the shear fact that i have an obsession with that song, could of quite easily gone every 360,drapht,nero song in there but i tamed myself. Everytime i hear everyone top 10 i sit and go **** i should of had that in but im still pretty happy with mine. Midnight City #1!!!

Drapht - Sing It (The Life Of Riley)
Example/Skream - Shot Yourself In The Foot Again

Hilltop Hoods - I Love It {Ft. Sia}

Last Dinosaurs - Zoom
M83 - Midnight City
Nero - Promises
Oh Mercy - Stay, Please Stay
San Cisco - Awkward
Tim & Jean - I Can Show You
360 - Boys Like You [Ft. Gossling]

 

[Ironmonger]

Might as well post mine:

Black Keys, The - Lonely Boy
Boy & Bear - Feeding Line
Decemberists, The - This Is Why We Fight
Gotye - Somebody That I Used To Know {Ft. Kimbra}
Little Red - All Mine
Lotek - Rock It {Like A Version}
Middle East, The - Land Of The Bloody Unknown
Skipping Girl Vinegar - You Can
Sparkadia - China
Vasco Era, The - Rock And Roll Is The Only Thing That Makes Me Feel Good

Packed full of Aussie indie/pop-rock.

I don't listen to JJJ much anymore so I'd have no idea what's going to finish where. But first time I heard Lonely Boy I thought to myself 'bet that'll do well in the hottest 100'.

Gotye & Kimbra will be a worthy number one.

 

[smiddy9]

seriously wish that someone had a place where i can download all the songs on triple j!! anyone got a good library that can turn in to a torrent haha

 

[DrummoSolo]

seriously wish that someone had a place where i can download all the songs on triple j!! anyone got a good library that can turn in to a torrent haha

Not that I'm certain I should be encouraging this on the forums, but it's not overly hard to find torrents of the last few H100 countdowns on some reasonably well known sites. Always a start.

 

[nobbyiscool]

seriously wish that someone had a place where i can download all the songs on triple j!! anyone got a good library that can turn in to a torrent haha

try iTunes, tightarse.

most of triple j is Australian, often independent artists.

they don't deserve to be ripped off if u enjoy their music.

go steal kanye west or Metallica all u like. but ripping off bands like stonefield or the jezabels is bullshit.

 

[kBuck]

try iTunes, tightarse.
go steal kanye west or Metallica all u like. but ripping off bands like stonefield or the jezabels is bullshit.

Agree :d

 

[smiddy9]

when you love every song played on triple youd think itd get a bit expensive!!

 

[AxelFoley]

'Changed The Way You Kiss Me' - Example.
'Helena Beat' - Foster The People.
'Under Cover Of Darkness' - Strokes, The.
'Rock And Roll Is The Only Thing That Makes Me Feel Good' - Vasco Era, The.
'All Of This' - Naked And Famous, The.
'Promises' - Nero.
'Majesty' - Panics, The.
'Feeding Line' - Boy & Bear.
'History's Door' - Husky.
'Days Are Forgotten' - Kasabian.

 

[Roger Smith]

Active Child - Hanging On
Architecture In Helsinki - Desert Island
Bon Iver - Calgary
Elizabeth Rose - Stars Ago {Rufus Remix}
Example - Midnight Run
Gotye - Somebody That I Used To Know {Ft. Kimbra}
Middle East, The - Land Of The Bloody Unknown
Rufus - Paris Collides
SBTRKT - Hold On {Ft. Sampha}
Wombats, The - Jump Into The Fog

Unlucky ones for me were M83 - Midnight City, Nero - Promises, Snakadaktal - Air.

Also haven't listened to STIUTK for about 6 months for obvious reasons but had to put it in cos was easily the best song to hit the radio this year (although i opted for Middle East as number 1)

 

[Roger Smith]

Also does any one have any thoughts on good bets? Sportingbet have a pretty big market with some good value for 2nd, 3rd and 4th songs.

Also looking at the 'Aussie songs in top 10' they've got 6, 5 & 7 songs at $3.50, $4 and $5 respectively, but i reckon 6 and 7 songs is no hope, 5 is possible but i reckon 4 and possibly 3 songs ($9 and $17) is pretty good value. I reckon there is only 2 aussie certainties (Gotye and Boy & Bear) and at least 5 near certainties (Calvin Harris, Florence, Example, Bon Iver & M83) for international artists. Also think that the international maybes (e.g Nero, Wombats, Black Keys, Lykke Li, etc) are more likely than australian maybes (Drapht, Jebidiah, Bluejuice, Architecture in Helsinki, Art V's Science, Hilltop Hoods, Matt Korby, etc) to hit the top 10. Anyone have any thoughts on this or other bets they'll make?

 

[DrummoSolo]

Also does any one have any thoughts on good bets? Sportingbet have a pretty big market with some good value for 2nd, 3rd and 4th songs.

Also looking at the 'Aussie songs in top 10' they've got 6, 5 & 7 songs at $3.50, $4 and $5 respectively, but i reckon 6 and 7 songs is no hope, 5 is possible but i reckon 4 and possibly 3 songs ($9 and $17) is pretty good value. I reckon there is only 2 aussie certainties (Gotye and Boy & Bear) and at least 5 near certainties (Calvin Harris, Florence, Example, Bon Iver & M83) for international artists. Also think that the international maybes (e.g Nero, Wombats, Black Keys, Lykke Li, etc) are more likely than australian maybes (Drapht, Jebidiah, Bluejuice, Architecture in Helsinki, Art V's Science, Hilltop Hoods, Matt Korby, etc) to hit the top 10. Anyone have any thoughts on this or other bets they'll make?

Gone through the votes in this song and they all predict a range of 2-5 Aussie songs. Not the worst hope, and you backed 2, 3, 4, 5, you'd make even money from 5 and profit from below. Worth a song!

Witness, did you make any progress on finding previous lists?

 

[saintal]

Decided to vote for the first time in a few years. Could only muster up 2 votes..the two Mastodon songs listed. I guess when you listen to about 30mins of JJJ a month that will happen...

 

[thewitness]

Witness, did you make any progress on finding previous lists?

I did find the last 2 years of my tips vs position finished, but i wasn't sure how relevant they would be to anyone so i didn't post them. I guess they might show what types of songs/genres my system doesn't pick up or over estimates.
I'll put them up for you to look at when i get home from work this arvo.

 

[thewitness]

Not sure what use this is really but here's the results of my vote counting system for the past two years.
Position 2009 Song My tip
1 Mumford & Sons - Little Lion Man 1
2 Art Vs Science - Parlez Vous Francais? 5
3 Hilltop Hoods - Chase That Feeling 2
4 Phoenix - Lisztomania 3
5 Bluejuice - Broken Leg 4
6 La Roux - Bulletproof 9
7 Lisa Mitchell - Coin Laundry 29
8 Lily Allen - Not Fair 21
9 Muse - Uprising 6
10 Florence & The Machine - Dog Days Are Over 12
11 Yeah Yeah Yeahs - Heads Will Roll 11
12 Dizzee Rascal & Armand Van Helden - Bonkers 31
13 Phoenix - 1901 14
14 Jamie T - Sticks 'N' Stones 22
15 Edward Sharpe & The Magnetic Zeros - Home 8
16 Gossip, The - Heavy Cross 99
17 Kasabian - Fire 10
18 Bag Raiders - Shooting Stars 15
19 Muse - Undisclosed Desires 18
20 Passion Pit - Sleepyhead 23
21 Temper Trap, The - Fader 16
22 Vampire Weekend - Cousins 26
23 Bloody Beetroots, The - Warp 1.9 39
24 Flight Of The Conchords - Carol Brown 41
25 Yeah Yeah Yeahs - Zero 20
26 Metric - Help I'm Alive 92
27 La Roux - In For The Kill 65
28 Sarah Blasko - We Won't Run 34
29 Sarah Blasko - All I Want 57
30 Flight Of The Conchords - Hurt Feelings 28
31 Seth Sentry - The Waitress Song 30
32 Paul Dempsey - Ramona Was A Waitress 36
33 Kid Cudi - Pursuit Of Happiness 24
34 Little Birdy - Brother 54
35 Muse - Resistance 45
36 Weezer - (If You're Wondering If I Want You To) I Want You To 19
37 Hilltop Hoods - Still Standing x
38 Passion Pit - Little Secrets 64
39 John Butler Trio - One Way Road 89
40 Angus And Julia Stone - And The Boys 50
41 Simian Mobile Disco - Audacity Of Huge (Ft. Chris Keating) 42
42 British India - Vanilla 35
43 Bloody Beetroots, The - Awesome (Ft. Cool Kids) x
44 Florence & The Machine - Rabbit Heart (Raise It Up) 40
45 Florence & The Machine - Drumming Song 96
46 Bon Iver - Blood Bank 37
47 Karnivool - Set Fire To The Hive 38
48 Temper Trap, The - Science Of Fear 43
49 Powderfinger - All Of The Dreamers x
50 Sia - Buttons {CSS Remix} x
51 Kasabian - Where Did All The Love Go 58
52 Vampire Weekend - Horchata 55
53 Miike Snow - Animal 33
54 Arctic Monkeys - Crying Lightning 61
55 Franz Ferdinand - No You Girls 25
56 XX, The - Islands x
57 Philadelphia Grand Jury - The Good News 52
58 Temper Trap, The - Love Lost x
59 Calvin Harris - I'm Not Alone 47
60 Lily Allen - 22 x
61 Grizzly Bear - Two Weeks 13
62 Bloc Party - One More Chance 62
63 Karnivool - All I Know 69
64 Middle East, The - Blood 17
65 Eskimo Joe - Foreign Land 59
66 Illy - Pictures x
67 Washington - Cement x
68 Prodigy, The - Omen 27
69 Death Cab For Cutie - Meet Me On The Equinox 66
70 Animal Collective - My Girls 7
71 Bertie Blackman - Byrds Of Prey 94
72 Sia - You've Changed 68
73 MSTRKRFT - Heartbreaker x
74 Art Vs Science - Friend In The Field 71
75 Wolfmother - New Moon Rising x
76 Julian Casablancas - 11th Dimension 77
77 Jet - She's A Genius x
78 Tame Impala - Remember Me 84
79 Yves Klein Blue - Getting Wise 70
80 Dizzee Rascal & Calvin Harris - Holiday x
81 Mumford & Sons - The Cave x
82 Miami Horror - Sometimes x
83 Basement Jaxx - Raindrops 74
84 Muse - United States Of Eurasia 90
85 Kasabian - Underdog 88
86 Flight Of The Conchords - Too Many Dicks x
87 Middle East, The - The Darkest Side 86
88 NOFX - Creeping Out Sara 51
89 Jay-Z - D.O.A. (Death Of Auto-Tune) 81
90 Florence & The Machine - Kiss With A Fist 97
91 Manchester Orchestra - I've Got Friends 49
92 Friendly Fires - Skeleton Boy 48
93 Bertie Blackman - Thump 60
94 Regina Spektor - Blue Lips 98
95 Silversun Pickups - Panic Switch 53
96 Deadmau5 - Ghosts N Stuff (Ft. Rob Swine) x
97 Regina Spektor - Laughing With x
98 Them Crooked Vultures - New Fang 76
99 Tegan And Sara - Hell 79
100 Foo Fighters - Wheels 100

Position 2010 Song My tip
1 Angus And Julia Stone - Big Jet Plane 2
2 Little Red - Rock It 1
3 Ou Est Le Swimming Pool - Dance The Way I Feel 7
4 Birds Of Tokyo - Plans 4
5 Boy & Bear - Fall At Your Feet 26
6 Adrian Lux - Teenage Crime 10
7 Cee Lo Green - **** You! 12
8 Wombats, The - Tokyo (Vampires & Wolves) 6
9 Art Vs. Science - Magic Fountain 11
10 Mark Ronson & The Business Intl - Somebody To Love Me {Ft. Boy George & Andrew Wyatt} 20
11 Pendulum - ABC News Theme {Remix} 15
12 Drapht - Rapunzel 33
13 Sia - Clap Your Hands 5
14 Kanye West - Runaway {Ft. Pusha T} 14
15 Duck Sauce - Barbara Streisand 46
16 Jezabels, The - Mace Spray 8
17 Mark Ronson & The Business Intl - Bang Bang Bang {Ft. Q-Tip & MNDR} 9
18 Cloud Control - There's Nothing In The Water We Can't Fight 16
19 Flight Facilities - Crave You {Ft. Giselle} 43
20 Washington - Sunday Best 25
21 Two Door Cinema Club - Undercover Martyn 27
22 Children Collide - Jellylegs 22
23 Bliss N Eso - Addicted 37
24 Sparkadia - Talking Like I'm Falling Down Stairs 51
25 Gotye - Eyes Wide Open 55
26 Crystal Castles - Not In Love {Ft. Robert Smith} 3
27 Florence & The Machine/Dizzee Rascal - You've Got The Dirtee Love {Live} 50
28 Darwin Deez - Radar Detector 32
29 Illy - It Can Wait {Ft. Owl Eyes} 99
30 Yeasayer - O.N.E 17
31 National, The - Bloodbuzz Ohio 18
32 Foster The People - Pumped Up Kicks 40
33 Tame Impala - Solitude Is Bliss 13
34 Naked And Famous, The - Punching In A Dream 36
35 Mark Ronson & The Business Intl - The Bike Song {Ft. Kyle Falconer & Spank Rock} 61
36 Chiddy Bang - Opposite Of Adults 21
37 Gorillaz - Doncamatic {Ft. Daley} 58
38 Naked And Famous, The - Young Blood 35
39 John Butler Trio - Revolution 30
40 Gyroscope - Baby, I'm Getting Better 38
41 Bliss N Eso - Down By The River x
42 Gorillaz - On Melancholy Hill 48
43 Yolanda Be Cool/DCUP - We No Speak Americano 49
44 Crystal Castles - Baptism 23
45 Boy & Bear - Rabbit Song x
46 Bag Raiders - Way Back Home 39
47 Birds Of Tokyo - Wild At Heart 78
48 Pendulum - Witchcraft 19
49 Jezabels, The - Easy To Love 41
50 Hot Chip - One Life Stand 44
51 Yeasayer - Ambling Alp 53
52 John Steel Singers, The - Overpass 54
53 Bliss N Eso - Reflections x
54 Miami Horror - Holidays {Ft. Alan Palomo} x
55 Vampire Weekend - Giving Up The Gun 64
56 Sia - Bring Night x
57 Example - Kickstarts x
58 Arcade Fire - The Suburbs 29
59 Washington - Rich Kids 98
60 Children Collide - My Eagle 96
61 Ou Est Le Swimming Pool - Jackson's Last Stand 63
62 Angus And Julia Stone - Hold On x
63 Arcade Fire - Ready To Start 31
64 Gypsy & The Cat - Jona Vark x
65 Dead Letter Circus - One Step 59
66 Cold War Kids - Audience 86
67 Vampire Weekend - Holiday x
68 Andy Bull - Dog {Ft. Lisa Mitchell} 73
69 Pendulum - Watercolour 57
70 Groove Armada - Paper Romance 67
71 Gypsy & The Cat - Piper's Song 56
72 Two Door Cinema Club - I Can Talk 76
73 Gypsy & The Cat - Time To Wander 69
74 Tame Impala - Lucidity 42
75 Hungry Kids Of Hungary - Coming Around 85
76 Kings Of Leon - Radioactive 80
77 Big Boi - Shutterbugg {Ft. Cutty} 28
78 Gorillaz - Stylo {Ft. Bobby Womack and Mos Def} x
79 Little Red - Slow Motion 74
80 Black Keys, The - Howlin' For You x
81 Klaxons - Echoes 24
82 Black Keys, The - Tighten Up 87
83 Arcade Fire - Modern Man 93
84 Washington - The Hardest Part x
85 Hot Chip - I Feel Better x
86 Evil Eddie - Queensland x
87 Birds Of Tokyo - The Saddest Thing I Know x
88 Kanye West - Monster {Ft. JAY-Z, Rick Ross, Nicki Minaj, Bon Iver} 84
89 Interpol - Barricade x
90 Art Vs. Science - Finally See Our Way 89
91 Bedroom Philosopher, The - Northcote (So Hungover) 100
92 LCD Soundsystem - I Can Change 71
93 National, The - Anyone's Ghost x
94 Xavier Rudd - Time To Smile 97
95 Broken Bells - The High Road 70
96 Jonsi - Go Do 60
97 Parkway Drive - Sleepwalker 90
98 Foals - Spanish Sahara 34
99 Dead Letter Circus - Big x
100 Muse - Neutron Star Collision (Love Is Forever) 91

 

[kBuck]

Great stuff!

Those top 10's looked pretty bloody good! I would be happy to get a top 10 close to those this year.

Can't really see a trend for 2009, but it seems your approach under estimates the amount of songs each artist will get in 2010. Not by much tho!

Must have felt great getting the first song announced correct in 2009.

 

[DrummoSolo]

For mine, a quick glance suggests that Aussie hip-hop is generally under-rated, and some of the indie darlings (Animal Collective, Arcade Fire, LCD Soundsystem, even the likes of Crystal Castles and Friendly Fires to an extent) get over-rated. There's also a slight trend towards a lot of female artists getting under-rated too. Interesting!

 

[DaRenegade]

Female artists underrated? There's been a huge push for them since the H100 of all Time when women complained and bitched that they'd been "unfairly overlooked" or whatever when only 2 of the songs featured female vocalists or something. The j's play more female fronted folk/songwriter groups and solo artists now than ever.

 

[kBuck]

Female singers are getting a lot better these days. I predict we will see a gradual increase in their showing in the count in future years.

I was reading on Wikipedia that 1.26 million people voted in last years count! Based on that would we assume a song would need about 10 k votes to make the list at all?

 

[Amelie23]

For what it's worth, my votes were as follows (half write-ins):

Adele - Someone Like You

Avicii - Levels

Black Keys, The - Lonely Boy

Damnwells, The - Feast Of Hearts

Florence & The Machine - What The Water Gave Me

Lana Del Rey - Video Games

M83 - Midnight City

Noah And The Whale - Waiting For My Chance To Come

Theophilus London - Flying Overseas {Ft. Devonte Hynes and Solange Knowles}
Tiny Victories - Mr. Bones


I'm posting some predictions for consideration soon.

 

[DrummoSolo]

Female artists underrated? There's been a huge push for them since the H100 of all Time when women complained and bitched that they'd been "unfairly overlooked" or whatever when only 2 of the songs featured female vocalists or something. The j's play more female fronted folk/songwriter groups and solo artists now than ever.

Sorry, what I meant was in regards to witness' polling of results - if you read his prediction charts, generally Australian hip hop songs and some female singers tend to chart higher than his predictions (have a look at Lisa Mitchell, lily Allen, etc etc), while some of the more critically acclaimed indie stuff, as detailed before, tends to chart well under his predictions.

 

[Amelie23]

Yeh, I've been thinking about female artists this morning too. Mainly because I keep moving around Lana Del Rey's "Video Games". I've got her bang in the middle of the top ten now.

It still strikes me that only in Hottest 100 history, only two number one songs have had female vocalists. And no female artist has won it outright, Missy Higgins was the closest from memory.

 

[Amelie23]

Re: Triple J hottest 100 of 2012 Prediction thread

Hottest 100 2011 - Top 30 Predictions

1. Somebody That I Used To Know {Ft. Kimbra} – Gotye
2. Midnight City – M83
3. Lonely Boy – The Black Keys
4. I Love It {Ft. Sia} – Hilltop Hoods
5. Video Games – Lana Del Rey
6. Brother – Matt Corby
7. Feeding Line – Boy & Bear
8. Helena Beat – Foster The People
9. Awkward – San Cisco
10. Contact High – Architecture In Helsinki

11. Jump Into The Fog – The Wombats
12. Feels So Close – Calvin Harris
13. Tongue Tied - GROUPLOVE
14. Sing It (The Life of Riley) - Drapht
15. Act Yr Age - Bluejuice
16. Scary Monsters And Nice Sprites - Skrillex
17. What The Water Gave Me – Florence + The Machine
18. Shake It Out - Florence + The Machine
19. Changed The Way You Kissed Me - Example
20. Otis {Ft. Otis Redding} - Jay-Z & Kanye West

21. Bounce – Calvin Harris
22. Lotus Flower - Radiohead
23. Turn Me On – The Grates
24. Endless Summer – The Jezabels
25. Under The Cover Of Darkness – The Strokes
26. Limit To Your Love – James Blake
27. She’s Like A Comet - Jebediah
28. Itchin’ On A Photograph - GROUPLOVE
29. Cameo Lover - Kimbra
30. Killer – 360

100. Mr Little Jeans – The Suburbs

My favourite time of year! Generally a very weak field this year which means we’re going to see a lot of average tracks go higher than they usually would/should (I’m looking at you brostep).
Observations:
*STIUTK to win by the largest margin in Hottest 100 history. I would estimate every second person voted for it.
*Owl Eyes cover of Pumped Up Kicks to come in at #32, same position as the original did last year.

Artist(s) with Highest Multiple Entries (Tie with 3 each)
Florence + The Machine (What The Water Gave Me; Shake It Out; No Light, No Light)
Bon Iver (Perth; Holocene; Calgary)
The Wombats (Jump Into The Fog; 1996; Techno Fan)
Foster The People (Helena Beat, Houdini, Call It What You Want)
*Although I think one of these will crack four, I just can’t decide