Triple J hottest 100 of 2012 Prediction thread.

[Lemma]

I think smiddy was being a bit facetious there bro
Settle

 

[kBuck]

kbuck and drummosolo, will there be any more changes to your predictions?

Maybe shuffle around the positions of my top 15 a bit. Also might swap Illy - Cigarettes with Foo Fighters - Rope. Hopefully my work over the year will get me through!

Thinking of putting a special bounty on some songs if I miss them. Mainly the ones I removed from my original list when making the revised list.

 

[kBuck]

Saw some votes on facebook and thought of you thewitness!
1. Hanging on - Active child
2. Brother - Matt corby
3. The look - Metronomy
4. Pacific - Russian winters
5. Lay it down - The Rubens
6. I need a dollar - Aloe Blacc
7. Free - The Stoops
8. Awkward - San Cisco
9. History's door - Husky
10. Naked kids - Group love


Metronomy - The Look
Mutemath - Blood Pressure
Austra - Lose It
Ball Park Music - All I Want Is You
Busby Marou - Biding My Time
San Cisco - Awkward
Seeker Lover Keeper - Even Though I'm A Woman
Grouplove - Tongue Tied
Snakadaktal - Air
New Navy - Zimbabwe

 

[DaRenegade]

wow, i can't believe i didn't see this. that is the most ridiculous justification for stealing someones work that i've ever seen.

cost is not a justification for stealing. nor is stealing because you're greedy or poor. what you're essentially saying is that if i love every cd in jb hi-fi but can't afford them, i can just steal them.

this is exactly the same thing, you ignorant fool. "because you can" is not a justification either.

i wonder how you'd feel if i came down to your place of work, sampled every burger that you guys made, and then refused to pay for any of them because "i loved them all so much."

i'm not a massive anti-piracy nerd. like i said, guys like kanye and metallica who are greedy sell outs, who are already millionaires, and whose revenue actually comes more from merchandise and concert tickets, it's different.

but most of the acts that triple j do not fall into this category. most of these artists are struggling to earn as much as you do working full time at the burger joint. i'll reiterate - stealing from them is bullshit.

end of rant.

:lmao

What a load of crap.

 

[stuziman]

Here is my top 10 prediction

1. Gotye - Somebody that I used to know
2. Matt Corby - Brother
3. Black Keys - Lonely Boy
4. M83 - Midnight City
5. Lana Del Ray - Video Games
6. Boy and Bear - Feeding Line
7. Calvin Harris - Feel so Close
8. Foster the People - Helena Beat
8. Blue Juice - Act Your Age
10. Group love - tongue Tied

unlucky: nero - promises, the wombats - jump into the fog & florance and the machine - shake it out.

 

[Sanigav]

Here is my top 10 prediction

1. Gotye - Somebody that I used to know
2. Matt Corby - Brother
3. Black Keys - Lonely Boy
4. M83 - Midnight City
5. Lana Del Ray - Video Games
6. Boy and Bear - Feeding Line
7. Calvin Harris - Feel so Close
8. Foster the People - Helena Beat
8. Blue Juice - Act Your Age
10. Group love - tongue Tied

unlucky: nero - promises, the wombats - jump into the fog & florance and the machine - shake it out.

As I alluded to on the punting board, stuziman should be re-named SMARTman

 

[AdelUniCrowFan]

See you at Laneway...

I'll be there and at the Feist show the night prior.

I'm looking forward to my day going Austra, EMA, Chairlift, Active Child, Girls, Laura Marling, The Panics, The Horrors, Anna Calvi, M83.

 

[DaRenegade]

I reckon the top 10 is gonna be...

1. Gotye - Somebody That I Used To Know
2. The Black Keys - Lonely Boy
3. M83 - Midnight City
4. Boy & Bear - Feeding Line
5. Hilltop Hoods ft. Sia - I Love It
6. Calvin Harris - Feel So Close
7. Lana Del Rey - Video Games
8. Matt Corby - Brother
9. Foster the People - Helena Beat
10. Grouplove - Tongue Tied

 

[DrummoSolo]

A lot of people out there beginning to really under-rate Changed The Way You Kissed Me, in my opinion!

 

[DaRenegade]

^ Really don't like that song, I think it'll reach about 15-12th.

 

[FlyingBurittoBro]

wow, i can't believe i didn't see this. that is the most ridiculous justification for stealing someones work that i've ever seen.

cost is not a justification for stealing. nor is stealing because you're greedy or poor. what you're essentially saying is that if i love every cd in jb hi-fi but can't afford them, i can just steal them.

this is exactly the same thing, you ignorant fool. "because you can" is not a justification either.

i wonder how you'd feel if i came down to your place of work, sampled every burger that you guys made, and then refused to pay for any of them because "i loved them all so much."

i'm not a massive anti-piracy nerd. like i said, guys like kanye and metallica who are greedy sell outs, who are already millionaires, and whose revenue actually comes more from merchandise and concert tickets, it's different.

but most of the acts that triple j do not fall into this category. most of these artists are struggling to earn as much as you do working full time at the burger joint. i'll reiterate - stealing from them is bullshit.

end of rant.

Music piracy is not stealing. It is music piracy.

 

[kBuck]

A lot of people out there beginning to really under-rate Changed The Way You Kissed Me, in my opinion!

Agree. I think its a pretty banging song. I expect Example to have some other songs that will also do well.

 

[stuziman]

A lot of people out there beginning to really under-rate Changed The Way You Kissed Me, in my opinion!

Based in my analysis I'd say unless he has a massive diehard fan base, that song won't go better than top 10.

 

[DrummoSolo]

Based in my analysis I'd say unless he has a massive diehard fan base, that song won't go better than top 10.

You were doing basically facebook voting analysis on the betting thread if I remember? If so, go take a look at thewitness' list on the bottom of page 9 - it's basically that with a considerably larger sample of votes, and it places Example at 7th!

For mine, it was a mainstream song, thrashed in clubs, with a big voting base. It might not do better than top 10, but for mine, if I had the betting choice, I think it's the safest lock for top 10 outside of Gotye and Boy and Bear.

 

[stuziman]

Facebook, twitter & forums. Example just didn't come up much at all. I'm not saying its a bad song I'm just saying people from what I could tell avoided it.

 

[kBuck]

Facebook, twitter & forums.

I'm extremely skeptical of how representative these sources are of the much larger voting pool.

 

[screech]

I'll be there and at the Feist show the night prior.

I'm looking forward to my day going Austra, EMA, Chairlift, Active Child, Girls, Laura Marling, The Panics, The Horrors, Anna Calvi, M83.

Mines looking like Total Control (part), Austra, Cults (part), Chairlift, roving time (Yuck, Active Child, Pajama Club), Girls, roving time (Laura Marling, Twin Shadow, The Panics), The Horrors (part), Anna Calvi, M83

Spewing M83 clash with Washed Out

 

[stuziman]

I'm extremely skeptical of how representative these sources are of the much larger voting pool.

What other sources could paint a better picture?

You get to see actual votes and every single person who is in the major voting demographics use these.

I have also factored in airplay on different stations (lonely boy has been flogged on every station), timing of the release, popularity in the 16-26 demographic and fan clubs (Matt Corby is easily the most obesseed about artist in my prediction) he has Twitter and Facebook groups trying to get him to #1.

It's not a perfect science but on the 26th we will find out.

 

[thewitness]

From my stats that Example song is now sitting in 13th. I just have to clean it up a little and then i will post again.

 

[DrummoSolo]

What other sources could paint a better picture?

You get to see actual votes and every single person who is in the major voting demographics use these.

I have also factored in airplay on different stations (lonely boy has been flogged on every station), timing of the release, popularity in the 16-26 demographic and fan clubs (Matt Corby is easily the most obesseed about artist in my prediction) he has Twitter and Facebook groups trying to get him to #1.

It's not a perfect science but on the 26th we will find out.

It's overall a pretty good source, but even on a list the size of witness', it'll cough up some abnormalities. That said, I've done these lists the past two years (top 20/30 though), just off "feel", and completely missed stuff like Cloud Control and the Jezabels. The main issue is that the sort of people who use the facebook app, post on forums, etc etc, are the ones who care enough to vote for more, and I hate using this term, "underground" tracks. As such, the Corbys, Del Rays, and even the M83s of the countdown leave me a bit hesitant to accelerate them right to the top of the order.

Also, I really, really, REALLY have big questions over how big fan groups, or any organised sort of voting (you see the gamblers make mass accounts for voting as well) can really push a song up the order. The two main examples I have are gamblers allegedly flogging Tame Impala to beat Sparkadia last year only to Sparkadia to place a lazy 9 spots over them, and Parkway Drive having "voting groups with numbers to seriously challenge" and just BARELY scrapping the 100. Considering this year, 3,300 votes is the number (roughly) to MAKE the 100, I just don't see voting groups having much effect.

 

[stuziman]

Yeah your dead right about sparkadia. So if your right songs that have been flogged on commercial stations like nova, triple M will get higher overall. Does anyone remember dance the way I feel? Was that played on commercial stations? Could be an exception like M83 this year

 

[DrummoSolo]

Yeah your dead right about sparkadia. So if your right songs that have been flogged on commercial stations like nova, triple M will get higher overall. Does anyone remember dance the way I feel? Was that played on commercial stations? Could be an exception like M83 this year

It's not necessarily a golden rule - for example, Phoenix went top 5 two years ago without being massively played on stations, that Boy and Bear cover last year didn't get flogged on radio that I remember, but the general rule is that mainstream airplay can help elevate a song.

And yes, Dance The Way I Feel got caned by radio, especially after the lead singer, sadly, took his own life.

 

[jo172]

It's not necessarily a golden rule - for example, Phoenix went top 5 two years ago without being massively played on stations, that Boy and Bear cover last year didn't get flogged on radio that I remember, but the general rule is that mainstream airplay can help elevate a song.

And yes, Dance The Way I Feel got caned by radio, especially after the lead singer, sadly, took his own life.

Plenty of examples of unearthed artists who toured a lot but didn't receive commercial airplay polling well i.e Parlez Vous Francais etc.

 

[Roger Smith]

wow, i can't believe i didn't see this. that is the most ridiculous justification for stealing someones work that i've ever seen.

cost is not a justification for stealing. nor is stealing because you're greedy or poor. what you're essentially saying is that if i love every cd in jb hi-fi but can't afford them, i can just steal them.

this is exactly the same thing, you ignorant fool. "because you can" is not a justification either.

i wonder how you'd feel if i came down to your place of work, sampled every burger that you guys made, and then refused to pay for any of them because "i loved them all so much."

i'm not a massive anti-piracy nerd. like i said, guys like kanye and metallica who are greedy sell outs, who are already millionaires, and whose revenue actually comes more from merchandise and concert tickets, it's different.

but most of the acts that triple j do not fall into this category. most of these artists are struggling to earn as much as you do working full time at the burger joint. i'll reiterate - stealing from them is bullshit.

end of rant.

would you say it's almost as ridiculous as your justification for stealing from successful people?

 

[kBuck]

Does anyone remember dance the way I feel? Was that played on commercial stations?

Yes. It was smashed everywhere. Triple J/Commercial/Clubs. Lead singer committed suicide after it came out