Triple J hottest 100 of 2012 Predition Thread

[DaRenegade]

boyhumbug12 - Yeah plenty of time for song places to change between now and Aus day, Surrender is one that already looks a high chance of finishing above the spot I already listed it in. Sadly, already had to say goodbye to "Accident Murderers" by Nas & Rick Ross. Really good track that I just don't think will get enough votes.

Also yes, you should attempt to draft up a list. I didn't last year coz I thought I couldn't populate one fairly but with the help of J Play, FB shares for votes and other sites with their own voting polls and threads, it's not too hard and doesn't even take too long.

kBuck. The weird thing is how close some songs we both picked are to each other, probably even have a few in the same exact spot lol. Kanye will make it, just coz of his jjj's and mainstream popularity, and both "Clique" and "Mercy" should make it, especially coz Jay Z, another jjj fav the past few years, features on "Clique".

 

[thewitness]

Thanks for the analysis again thewitness.

Two questions if you have time, whereabouts are: Sweet Nothing + Bangarang? Also, did you find that any certain genre seemed to do better last year than your voting analysis showed? For example, did dance songs seem to go higher then what you had expected or was there no noticable difference between your vote gathering and the actual votes. Cheers.

Drummersolo did some analysis of my 2009 and 2010 tips and suggested that Aussie Hip-Hop and female artists were usually under-rated by my system and that Foreign Indie darlings (eg.Radiohead, Animal Collective, Grizzly Bear ...) were over-rated, that probably because of the bias towards that type of music by people who would also post their votes online. I think that some Unearthed and Like a Version artists might also be under-rated.
From 2200 votes Sweet Nothing is now into 8th, Bangarang at 45th.
Trembling Hands is at 39th, with the Temper Trap votes seeming being split between songs. With Need Your Love and Rabbit Hole both around the 80th mark. London's Burning just outside the 100.

 

[Juddy Blue Blue]

Yes there are no clear standouts this year so the predictions I'm expecting will be a bit more over the place. I wouldn't read much into those 1st set i posted, 1200 votes isn't enough to get any real conclusions from. Aiming for around 5000 again to get accurate predictions.
Now from around 1900 votes Gold on the Ceiling is 11th and I Will Wait 23rd.

Yeah mate I think any of about six songs could win it. Different to recent years.

How many votes all up do triple j usually end up getting? Around the million mark?

My votes to add to the list mate:

alt-J - Something Good
Father John Misty - Hollywood Forever Cemetery Sings
Foals - My Number
Frank Ocean - Lost
Japandroids - The House That Heaven Built
Major Lazer - Get Free {ft. Amber Coffman}
Tame Impala - Feels Like We Only Go Backwards
Twerps - He's In Stock
Violent Soho - Tinderbox
Thundamentals - Brother {Like A Version}

 

[DaRenegade]

thewitness what are the following at currently?

This Fire, Passerby, Tinderbox, Clique?

 

[Noobz0r]

Took me awhile but my top ten ended up being:

Kingswood - Medusa
Of Monsters and Men - Little Talks
Majer Lazer - Get Free
Arctic Monkeys - R U Mine
British India - I Can Make You Love Me
Children Collide - Sword to a Gunfight
Cosmo Jarvis - Love This
Oberhofer - Away Frm U
Plan B - Playing With Fire
Tame Impala - Elephant


Agree with most people here that thrift shop and little talks are locks for 1 and 2. I think that the amount of commercial airtime that Little Talks had been getting will get it over the edge.

 

[Outshined]

Started off with a short list of about 18, there were a fair few decent songs this year (inb4 music is going to shit and the hottest 100 is laughable). Anyway...

Flume - Sleepless (ft. Jezzabell Doran)
Calvin Harris - Sweet Nothing (ft. Florence Welch)
Temper Trap - Need Your Love
The Black Keys - Gold on the Ceiling
Passion Pit - Take a Walk
Major Lazer - Get Free (ft. Amber Coffman)
The Bloody Beetroots - Rocksteady
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis - Thrift Shop (ft. Wanz)
Plan B - Ill Manors
The Aston Shuffle - Can't Stop Now

Honourable mentions to
Deadmau5 - Channel 42
Disclosure - Latch
Millions - Nineteen
Django Django - Default

 

[thewitness]

thewitness what are the following at currently?

This Fire, Passerby, Tinderbox, Clique?

This Fire #79
Passerby #96
Tinderbox #208
Clique #50

 

[PAdman]

Working on my list atm, got this so far:

Alpine - Gasoline
Beach House - Myth
Black Keys - Gold On The Ceiling
Muse - Follow Me
Passion Pit - Take a Walk
Tame Impala - Elephant
Psy - Gangnam Style
Angus Stone - The Wolf And The Butler

**** it, might as well add

Of Monsters and Men - Little Talks
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis - Thrift Shop

It was gonna happen .

thewitness, what about those songs?

 

[thewitness]

Working on my list atm, got this so far:

Alpine - Gasoline
Beach House - Myth
Black Keys - Gold On The Ceiling
Muse - Follow Me
Passion Pit - Take a Walk
Tame Impala - Elephant
Psy - Gangnam Style
Angus Stone - The Wolf And The Butler

**** it, might as well add

Of Monsters and Men - Little Talks
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis - Thrift Shop

It was gonna happen .

thewitness, what about those songs?

Gasoline #39
Myth #30
Gold On the Ceiling #15
Follow Me #205
Take A Walk #42
Elephant #2
Gangnam Style (first vote i have seen) would put it in at #528 but i dont bother including songs not on the shortlist until they start getting a decent number of votes. Carly Rae Jepson - Call Me Maybe has 2 votes.
The Wolf and the Butler (also the first vote i have seen for this).
Little Talks #3
Thrift Shop #1

 

[DaRenegade]

thewitness whilst you're on fire...

Survival Expert, Panopticon, Silhouettes, Neighbour Neighbour, Nobody to Love, Just What I Am, Mercy, Around My Way, My Gun, Madness, 45, Medusa, Brother (Like a Version)?

 

[DrummoSolo]

My votes for you, witness.

alt-J - Breezeblocks
Flight Facilities - Clair de Lune
Foals - Inhaler
Frank Ocean - Thinking About You
Hermitude - HyperParadise (Flume Remix)
Hot Chips - Flutes
Japandroids - The House That Heaven Built
Major Lazer - Get Free
Purity Ring - Fineshrine
Something for Kate - Survival Expert

 

[Kaydon]

Love your work witness!

I'm interested in how amity affliction - chasing ghosts is going. A lot of the betting agencies have it at pretty short odds. I personally thought it would struggle to make it. Can you please tell me where it is currently placed?

And these songs if you don't mind:

Icona Pop - I love it
Alt-j - Something good
Flume - Sleepless
Flume - Holdin On
Django Django - Default
Grimes - Oblivion
Tame Impala - Feels Like We Only Go Backwards

Thanks

 

[Roger Smith]

Any ideas on who'll have the most songs ion the countdown this year? Last year i managed to get on the wombats at $8 which i thought was a steal and they ended up getting it with four. This year im thinking frank ocean will have three, flume may have three if they count his hermitude remix towards him, temper trap three (slight chance for four), mumford and sons possibly three and that's all i can think of... anyhow i dont think there's an artist with a big chance of getting four songs in.

 

[DaRenegade]

Tame Impala also have a good chance of getting 3 in.

 

[thewitness]

thewitness whilst you're on fire...

Survival Expert, Panopticon, Silhouettes, Neighbour Neighbour, Nobody to Love, Just What I Am, Mercy, Around My Way, My Gun, Madness, 45, Medusa, Brother (Like a Version)?

Survival Expert #56, Panopticon #219, Silhouettes #42, Neighbour Neighbour #113, Nobody to Love (No Votes), Just What I Am #60, Mercy #75, Around My Way #206, My Gun #25, Madness #54, 45 #50, Medusa #288, Brother (Like a Version) #93

 

[thewitness]

Love your work witness!

I'm interested in how amity affliction - chasing ghosts is going. A lot of the betting agencies have it at pretty short odds. I personally thought it would struggle to make it. Can you please tell me where it is currently placed?

And these songs if you don't mind:

Icona Pop - I love it
Alt-j - Something good
Flume - Sleepless
Flume - Holdin On
Django Django - Default
Grimes - Oblivion
Tame Impala - Feels Like We Only Go Backwards

Thanks

amity affliction -chasing ghosts #95
Icona Pop - I love it #13
Alt-j - Something good #347
Flume - Sleepless #12
Flume - Holdin On #19
Django Django - Default #15
Grimes - Oblivion #6
Tame Impala - Feels Like We Only Go Backwards #4

 

[PAdman]

just putting the top 20 in from what's been said so far.

1. thrift shop - macklemore
2. elephant - tame impala
3. little talks - of monsters and men
4. feels like we only go backwards - tame impala
5.
6. oblivion - grimes
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12. sleepless - flume
13. i love it - icona pop
14.
15. default - django django
16.
17.
18.
19. holdin on - flume
20.

 

[Silent Alarm]

http://thingsboganslike.com/2010/04/09/123-indie-rock-choruses/
Congratulations everyone. Via selecting the singles from bands who are barely even alternative, you have become a bogan.

Tame Impala also have a good chance of getting 3 in.

That's actually an issue for them. Well, not an issue. Kevin Parker is selling out hugely famous, high-capacity venues in London and New York, so I doubt being high on the list of a compilation of singles is a problem for him. But because Lonerism has so many good pop songs, they won't be etching out a top ten slot (though I bet I'm wrong...). People don't usually vote for more than the one song by a single artist. They have three-ish songs in contention, so they might just get a bunch of spots in the 20s to 30s.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Everyone listen to
Like I Does - Allday

Quality aussie hip hop over the top of Flumes Hyperparadise remix
I voted for it, get on it everyone

 

[Upgrayedd]

http://thingsboganslike.com/2010/04/09/123-indie-rock-choruses/
Congratulations everyone. Via selecting the singles from bands who are barely even alternative, you have become a bogan.

So because i like a catchy song i'm a bogan? Ok

Really hard, quite a few good songs this year, however i feel like just nominating all of frank oceans shortlisted songs

 

[DaRenegade]

Survival Expert #56, Panopticon #219, Silhouettes #42, Neighbour Neighbour #113, Nobody to Love (No Votes), Just What I Am #60, Mercy #75, Around My Way #206, My Gun #25, Madness #54, 45 #50, Medusa #288, Brother (Like a Version) #93

Surprised to see Neighbour Neighbour close to crack the 100 yet you said Tinderbox was 208. Thought if Violent Soho were to make it it'd be with Tinderbox. Guess it's early on in voting and all, no votes for Nobody to Love is strange, thought it'd be a popular choice seeing as Homme is the QOTSA/TCV lead singer, two bands the j's love. Also with Lupe Fiasco looking outsider with Around My Way which I was sure would make the 100 but again it's very early in voting and you don't have alot of data so far. 45 by Gaslight is alot higher than I thought it might be.

 

[thewitness]

Yeah it is only early on for the data. A few more hours on and Tinderbox is now at #141.

 

[DaRenegade]

thewitness sorry to ask again but what about...

Sweet Sour, Wanderluster, Accident Murderers, All or Nothing, Lost, Pyramids, Thinkin 'Bout You, Good Kid, Miracle Cure

 

[Fred Astaire]

What are your thoughts on Take a Walk by Passion Pit? It was released early in the year and I'm interested to compare it to a song like Surrender by Ball Park Music which was released later in the year.

I'm trying to compile a list and attempting to figure out a way of calculating early release bias.

Thanks

 

[Roger Smith]

http://thingsboganslike.com/2010/04/09/123-indie-rock-choruses/
Congratulations everyone. Via selecting the singles from bands who are barely even alternative, you have become a bogan.

Congratulations to you, by caring so much about what music other people enjoy and ripping on any bands that you feel are shit, commerical or have sold out, you are officially an absolute douche.