Prediction Upside: North v Pies

[Shagga is all Class]

Collingwood have to be good in 2016. They have blown their load this year and next in the draft and blown wads of cash.

Gone for known quantities and should benefit from having Pendles and Swan forward.

This year's off season is the Bucks equivalent of a crazy Vossy roll of the dice.

 

[TooUglyForFugly]

Big hurdle for Pies to jump for any improvement is Nafans extremely consistent dropoff in coaching performance around June each season

It's usually that time when Eddie's BJs have inflated Nathan's head to unhealthy proportions. Then the season ends in disappointment.

 

[Saintly31]

One pretty reliable indicator of improvement is sides finishing outside the 8 with high percentage. Us with 119.5 in 2013, WC 116.9 and Crows 114.1 in 2014.

Collingwood's 106.3 is higher than a 12th-place team should do but still only has them 10th if you rank the teams by % and is 10% below the above teams that have underperformed on wins recently. And given that it's up from 94.1/11th the year before, you could argue that they've already had their leap forward and probably don't have another one of the same magnitude in them next year.

You could argue that RZ, but I think that is a simplistic view not taking into account other more important factors in their favour.

They have added another gun to their midfield, I can't see any older important players declining enough to affect them (maybe Swan), natural improvement to their various talented younger players, and assuming a decent run with injuries I think bottom half of 8 is certainly a realistic target for them.

 

[Tas]

James Aish didn't struggle to make the Brisbane team. He was top-10 in their 2014 Best and Fairest as an 18 year old, and was very much a required player that they did not want to lose. He will be elite, and will thrive playing in Melbourne on the MCG.

He played 11 games this year, he struggled to make a bottom 4 team, and arguably wouldn't have played 11 if he didn't crack the sads during the season.

He might become a very good player, but there are a lot of early pick players that don't make it not because of a lack of ability but are lacking in other areas like will, determination, etc. How a kid responds when they are struggling often tells you more than when they are cruising. He definitely has talent but that isn't all you need to succeed at AFL level.

Many believe that Jeremy Howe has much improvement within him, but despite that, he's still finished in the top-10 in Melbourne's best and fairest in 2014 and 2015. That's not too bad for a plodder.

Every player has a lot of improvement in them, ex-Melbourne players who were in the system for some time have typically struggled to improve. Will he? Wont he? I don't know. I am only basing expectation based on historical output.

Hopefully he can become a better player at the club he barracked for as a child, and with good players around him. I think most Collingwood supporters are prepared to wait and see without any great expectations yet though.

That's the difference, my post wasn't one of 'hope', it was just an observation based on current output. All the players recruited may become exceptional players but that is based on a metric most haven't shown a basis in reality at AFL level to date so my expectation is always tempered based on what evidence players have shown.

Adam Treloar is a very, very good player. Attempting to try to talk him down won't change that. He had a fantastic 2015 despite his groin injury, which should be fine now after his infamous surgery. I believe he'll take his game to another level playing in Melbourne on the MCG.Collingwood have eleven players on the list that have played in a premiership, and know how to win a flag. Ten of them played in the Collingwood 2010 premiership team, as well as Travis Varcoe who played in the Geelong premiership teams of 2009 and 2011. That's plenty of premiership knowledge and experience around the club.

I agree Treloar is a fantastic kid and I didn't talk him down, I just said he is going to replace someone in the side that has a quantifiable output already, and they will no longer have the opportunity they did when Treloar comes into the side and I used our Bastinac/NDS example of what happens when you bring in someone who will dislodge an existing player. When trying to quantify the overall improvement to the side you have to factor who is likely going to be displaced as a result.

I also fail to see the relevance of where their former clubs finished. There have been many great players who play for struggling clubs, and numerous Brownlow Medallists played in teams that didn't make even make the finals.Six of those losses were by under two goals, and three of those losses were by under one goal. Collingwood didn't win any of the close matches, but were the better team in four of them.

I am just saying the players coming in aren't like front-liners from a team like Hawthorn, there is an unknown element in terms of how they will perform with a significantly greater weight of expectation placed on them.

Supporter will generally have an optimistic point of view.

Of course there aren't any guarantees in footy, but I feel quite confident that Collingwood can beat the same teams again next season.

Of course you are confident, you are a supporter. I am confident we will beat Collingwood next year, one of us is obviously going to end up disappointed. You have solid theories why you will win, I have solid theories why we will win but someone will be wrong. Supporters are often wrong about a lot of things even if theoretically they make sense.

Most of what I have said is based on observations based on output, if Collingwood can improve they will obviously exceed my expectations based on recent historical evidence, for your expectations to be realised you however require improvement to happen beyond recent historical performances. I don't know if teams will improve or not, or if they will improve at a significantly greater rate than other teams improve, my observations are just based on known output. They might all improve radically, but I don't have a crystal ball.

Therefore it's quite possible they could win six or seven more matches next year by turning some of the close losses into wins, as well as natural overall improvement.Firstly, Nathan Freeman isn't a loss because he hasn't played a single game. He can't weaken the Collingwood team because he's never been in it. One of the reasons he left was because he didn't even rate his own chances of getting a game, which is a shit attitude to have, and there are serious questions over the state of his hamstring.

Freeman isn't a loss because he hasn't played a game? He is a top 10 pick, if your top talent doesn't realise then it is a loss. What if he becomes the next Ablett at St Kilda? Would he then be a loss? As I said, Treloar didn't come for free like a free agent, it is only in the future with the benefit of hindsight that we can determine how good trades have been. Early on Carlton fans would have been excited about the Judd trade, probably not so much any longer.

Paul Seedsman was no longer required, so he isn't a loss either. He was being shopped around, so he decided to search for a new club instead. If I was home, I would have been more than happy to drive him to the airport for his flight to Adelaide myself. Bye Seeds!

I don't think he was a particularly big loss for Collingwood but nonetheless we wont really know how the trade for Howe pans out until we see what kind of impact he has for Collingwood vs what becomes of Seedsman and Kennedy. Seedsman was more steak knives, Kennedy was a first round player.

Ben Kennedy played only five matches this year and averaged eleven disposals. He played eight matches in 2014 and averaged only twelve disposals. There are too many of his type readily available, but all the best to him. He isn't a loss and doesn't weaken Collingwood's team though.

You don't need to play him down, I never rated him that highly and I have said in recent years that Collingwood had too many small players with similar strengths and weaknesses so moving him on I think was a wise decision. The problem isn't really the player, it is Collingwood's pick 19 that was used on him, the issues isn't the player being moved on but the underlying draft pick that was used to acquire him. Who knows, Howe might be a really big win for Collingwood in the long-run, however, that is only going to happen if Howe can deliver much better output than he has at Melbourne.

I don't know who the "others" are you mentioned though, so I can't comment on them. Maybe you can please provide the names of those players instead so I can share my opinion on them. I don't know who you could be referring to.What is Levi Greenwood being paid at Collingwood? I don't believe it to be an excessive amount. James Aish rejected a greater offer from North Melbourne, and they were determined to get him, so it seems your club rates him very highly, and rightly so. A lot of people seem to be ignorant or have forgotten the immense talent of Aish. This article might refresh some memories.Collingwood, Geelong, Port Adelaide, and maybe even GWS could pass North Melbourne next season. At this stage, I believe three of them will finish higher. Time will tell.

My mistake, I thought you traded some more players for draft picks but you guys just de-listed them.

 

[KillaKanga]

I'd love to play Collingwood in a final. Not because I'm super confident but because playing 'big' Victorian clubs in a final has a huge buzz. Winning would be orgasmic. Just like the Bombers and Tigers wins recently.

 

[Only Forwards]

.

If you two are gonna have a verbal stoush this thread is going to have 2 posts per page.

 

[NorthernLights]

Not at all. I wasn't responding to you on anything you said. Thanks for responding to me though. Cheers!

Twas a joke mate

 

[bengrina]

He played 11 games this year, he struggled to make a bottom 4 team, and arguably wouldn't have played 11 if he didn't crack the sads during the season.

He might become a very good player, but there are a lot of early pick players that don't make it not because of a lack of ability but are lacking in other areas like will, determination, etc. How a kid responds when they are struggling often tells you more than when they are cruising. He definitely has talent but that isn't all you need to succeed at AFL level.



Every player has a lot of improvement in them, ex-Melbourne players who were in the system for some time have typically struggled to improve. Will he? Wont he? I don't know. I am only basing expectation based on historical output.



That's the difference, my post wasn't one of 'hope', it was just an observation based on current output. All the players recruited may become exceptional players but that is based on a metric most haven't shown a basis in reality at AFL level to date so my expectation is always tempered based on what evidence players have shown.



I agree Treloar is a fantastic kid and I didn't talk him down, I just said he is going to replace someone in the side that has a quantifiable output already, and they will no longer have the opportunity they did when Treloar comes into the side and I used our Bastinac/NDS example of what happens when you bring in someone who will dislodge an existing player. When trying to quantify the overall improvement to the side you have to factor who is likely going to be displaced as a result.



I am just saying the players coming in aren't like front-liners from a team like Hawthorn, there is an unknown element in terms of how they will perform with a significantly greater weight of expectation placed on them.

Supporter will generally have an optimistic point of view.



Of course you are confident, you are a supporter. I am confident we will beat Collingwood next year, one of us is obviously going to end up disappointed. You have solid theories why you will win, I have solid theories why we will win but someone will be wrong. Supporters are often wrong about a lot of things even if theoretically they make sense.

Most of what I have said is based on observations based on output, if Collingwood can improve they will obviously exceed my expectations based on recent historical evidence, for your expectations to be realised you however require improvement to happen beyond recent historical performances. I don't know if teams will improve or not, or if they will improve at a significantly greater rate than other teams improve, my observations are just based on known output. They might all improve radically, but I don't have a crystal ball.



Freeman isn't a loss because he hasn't played a game? He is a top 10 pick, if your top talent doesn't realise then it is a loss. What if he becomes the next Ablett at St Kilda? Would he then be a loss? As I said, Treloar didn't come for free like a free agent, it is only in the future with the benefit of hindsight that we can determine how good trades have been. Early on Carlton fans would have been excited about the Judd trade, probably not so much any longer.



I don't think he was a particularly big loss for Collingwood but nonetheless we wont really know how the trade for Howe pans out until we see what kind of impact he has for Collingwood vs what becomes of Seedsman and Kennedy. Seedsman was more steak knives, Kennedy was a first round player.



You don't need to play him down, I never rated him that highly and I have said in recent years that Collingwood had too many small players with similar strengths and weaknesses so moving him on I think was a wise decision. The problem isn't really the player, it is Collingwood's pick 19 that was used on him, the issues isn't the player being moved on but the underlying draft pick that was used to acquire him. Who knows, Howe might be a really big win for Collingwood in the long-run, however, that is only going to happen if Howe can deliver much better output than he has at Melbourne.





My mistake, I thought you traded some more players for draft picks but you guys just de-listed them.

Do you work Tas?

 

[Tas]

Do you work Tas?

Not today, but I do generally. Do you care or are you taking a survey?

 

[Tas]

If you two are gonna have a verbal stoush this thread is going to have 2 posts per page.

I wanted to address their concerns in the post they replied to, I explained my point of view, I don't expect there needs to be any follow ups because I covered everything in the one post.

 

[Hearts to hearts]

What do you mean by "slam dunk?" I simply don't understand this kind of thought process. It goes without saying that nothing is certain in footy, and there isn't any team that is guaranteed of playing in the finals of course. In my opinion Collingwood will be top-4 contenders next season though, and I also believe there isn't any stand-out and invincible team.I'm absolutely still "pushing that barrow." James Aish will be an A-grade star, and I'm absolutely rapt he's at Collingwood. He has an elite footy brain and skills on both sides, and playing in Melbourne on the MCG will bring out the best in him. He will immediately improve Collingwood. He has just turned 20 years of age, yet many speak of him as if he's 25 and has already shown what his capable of.Nathan Brown had a knee reconstruction in 2011, and a shoulder reconstruction in 2014, which can happen in footy, but he isn't injury prone. He's one of the vice-captains and finished 6th in Copeland Trophy after playing 21 matches this year. You might be getting mixed-up with his identical twin brother Mitch Brown of West Coast. Ben Reid has had two years of soft tissue problems, but nothing prior to that. He returned late last year and performed well, and is reported to be in his best condition in years and already preparing for next season. I'm quite happy with those two 26 year old premiership winning key defenders.I think the plan is to play Ben Reid in defence, and he has already returned and played well late in the season. The club is confident he is over his problems, and his form after he returned late last season supports that, so I think it's expected. It was important that he played those last five matches without any concerns.

The uncertainty of footy forecasting doesn't "go without saying" when someone posts that their hope - Aish being an A grader - is a 100% guaranteed fact. Aish wasn't rated as highly as our own Luke Macdonals is his draft year or rising star first year, and none of us see him as more than a promising young player who may or may not go on to fulfil his promise.

If Collingwood's list is a quarter as good as you claim, they have been miserably underperforming for several years. In fact, since they ditched their coach.

 

[Horace]

If you two are gonna have a verbal stoush this thread is going to have 2 posts per page.

Is looking very promising. Kissstephsarse and Tas might just conceivably debate one another for at least the next 5 years. I'm backing Tas to win this debate though.

 

[TooUglyForFugly]

As long as he doesn't continue his essays about Petrie.

I have a terrible memory. When was the last time an ex-player-turned-coach of the same club became a premiership coach?

 

[Horace]

Is looking very promising. Kissstephsarse and Tas might just conceivably debate one another for at least the next 5 years. I'm backing Tas to win this debate though.

Oh just read Tas's post that says he has finished answering Kissstephsarse. That will only encourage the 'arse to keep going

 

[boneofshin]

As long as he doesn't continue his essays about Petrie.

I have a terrible memory. When was the last time an ex-player-turned-coach of the same club became a premiership coach?

Worsfold.

 

[Lorne Malvo]

I just kept scrolling past and thought wtf how bored is this dude. All I saw was the black and white flag the rest is a blur

I didn't even read it and fell asleep just scrolling. What a waste of time

 

[TooUglyForFugly]

Worsfold.

Ta.

 

[Horace]

Just by the way, either the Age is looking for a few more readers or the Pies are going to be the real deal this year because we have had 3 articles on them this week on consecutive days. Today it is about Aish, yesterday Elliot and Treloar the day before.

I'm backing they are looking for a few more readers although you would have to think that targetting Pie fans for readers is a low result strategy.

 

[Horace]

And does anyone else remember back in 1990 when the Pies broke their 32 year Premiership drought, the Sun or the Herald Sun or whatever it was called back then dined out on that result all the way to Christmas and the New Year.

 

[TooUglyForFugly]

Just by the way, either the Age is looking for a few more readers or the Pies are going to be the real deal this year because we have had 3 articles on them this week on consecutive days. Today it is about Aish, yesterday Elliot and Treloar the day before.

I'm backing they are looking for a few more readers although you would have to think that targetting Pie fans for readers is a low result strategy.

Low hanging fruit. Looks like Arjen took a bite too.

 

[RobZombie]

Looks like Oxley's getting plenty of game time next year then.

That's a bugger for Scharenberg.

 

[Hearts to hearts]

Looks like Oxley's getting plenty of game time next year then.

That's a bugger for Scharenberg.

Another reminder of the stupidity of firm predictions. Too much uncontrolled good or bad luck involved.

 

[DaveyBoy123]

Looks like Oxley's getting plenty of game time next year then.
That's a bugger for Scharenberg.

They'll still claim MS did his job this year, since he was apparently one of the major reasons that Aish wanted to become a pie.

 

[RobZombie]

They'll still claim MS did his job this year, since he was apparently one of the major reasons that Aish wanted to become a pie.

And Knightmare will still claim MS was a great draft pick and just bad luck while Garner is a bust because he's been injured.

 

[the big lebowski]

Without paying any attention to the Pies i thought i might have a look at our upside for next year.

I have broken it into 3 categories:

1: Organic growth from within best 22

2: New players to come into the best 22

3: Potential for regression in best 22 players

Organic Growth of Best 22

Assuming that the pre lim final is our best 22, with Turner out and Wells in, i see upside as follows:

Wells: Obviously this is being very hopeful but i just can't imagine that he will have a third year in a row like he has. That would end his career in such a disappointing manner. I can't see us getting 22 games plus finals out of him but i pray/hope/expect him to be there for the big games and to make a difference.

Ziebell/Cunnington: Upside is there for me. I say it every year but another years development should see a small incremental increase in output for 2 of our most vital players.

Goldy: Essentially improves every year. Obviously we would not expect the same leap as last year but a small improvement again would be invaluable.

Brown: Never had a preseason but looks ready to kick on from what was a disappointing end to the year in the finals. Expecting 40 goals from him this year.

Garner: See Brown. Fit and firing playing 22 games should improve our forward half with pressure acts alone.

Atley: Great second half to the year after looking like he was going to stagnate. Play him off half back and be done with it IMO.

Tarrant: Surprised most in 2015. Just need him to back it up and hope for some small improvement that comes with belief, experience etc.

Swallow: Still think he isn't back to his best yet. Maybe he never will but i still think he can improve part of the way there.

Jacobs: Didn't think i would be writing this but a full years worth of tagging might help us win a game or two extra throughout the year.

New Players into the Best 22

So this is hard because to come in, someone has to go out.

In my best 22, Turner has gone out for Wells.

Gibson seems the most under pressure to me. However as per the next part, there may be issues with older players dropping off, then there are always injuries.

Anderson: One would hope that he is straight into our best 22 from round 1. Whether that means replacing a Gibson or maybe an injured player from our best 22.

Mcdonald: I think he will have a very strong year. Who he gets into the team infront of is another question. I think Hansen is becoming surplus as his best footy has been too far sporadic. Spud has been great but may regress with age or need to be managed.

Black: I hope and expect confidence to return playing for a decent VFL team. Hopefully the lack on interest at trade time gives him a rocket. Would need an injury to break in though.

Wood: Fast becoming make or break to a certain degree. Might survive into 2017 with a 2016 like 2015, but that would be his final year to cement a spot.

Dumont: Seems to be ready to go. But again, how does he fit into the best 22?

Threats

Waite/Higgins: Despite them both turning up to preseason day 1, i still hold some reservations. They both had career best years last year. Hitting that mark again may prove wishful thinking (probably more so in Waite's case given his age).

Petrie: Thought he had a good 2015 being the main man every game (bar one for suspension). Getting on though so may not play to the same level. In terms of concern this ranks low individually as i expect Brown to have a very good year. However if a drop off in form coincides with similar from Waite we may struggle.

Spud: Wouldn't be surprised if he has a down year. No real reason for this other than gut feel. We do seem to have some cover for him however.

Boomer: Surely he can't keep playing to such a high level in the year when he breaks the all time record for games played. Surely.