Prediction Upside: North v Pies

[blackshadow]

Without paying any attention to the Pies i thought i might have a look at our upside for next year.

I have broken it into 3 categories:

1: Organic growth from within best 22

2: New players to come into the best 22

3: Potential for regression in best 22 players

Organic Growth of Best 22

Assuming that the pre lim final is our best 22, with Turner out and Wells in, i see upside as follows:

Wells: Obviously this is being very hopeful but i just can't imagine that he will have a third year in a row like he has. That would end his career in such a disappointing manner. I can't see us getting 22 games plus finals out of him but i pray/hope/expect him to be there for the big games and to make a difference.

Ziebell/Cunnington: Upside is there for me. I say it every year but another years development should see a small incremental increase in output for 2 of our most vital players.

Goldy: Essentially improves every year. Obviously we would not expect the same leap as last year but a small improvement again would be invaluable.

Brown: Never had a preseason but looks ready to kick on from what was a disappointing end to the year in the finals. Expecting 40 goals from him this year.

Garner: See Brown. Fit and firing playing 22 games should improve our forward half with pressure acts alone.

Atley: Great second half to the year after looking like he was going to stagnate. Play him off half back and be done with it IMO.

Tarrant: Surprised most in 2015. Just need him to back it up and hope for some small improvement that comes with belief, experience etc.

Swallow: Still think he isn't back to his best yet. Maybe he never will but i still think he can improve part of the way there.

Jacobs: Didn't think i would be writing this but a full years worth of tagging might help us win a game or two extra throughout the year.

New Players into the Best 22

So this is hard because to come in, someone has to go out.

In my best 22, Turner has gone out for Wells.

Gibson seems the most under pressure to me. However as per the next part, there may be issues with older players dropping off, then there are always injuries.

Anderson: One would hope that he is straight into our best 22 from round 1. Whether that means replacing a Gibson or maybe an injured player from our best 22.

Mcdonald: I think he will have a very strong year. Who he gets into the team infront of is another question. I think Hansen is becoming surplus as his best footy has been too far sporadic. Spud has been great but may regress with age or need to be managed.

Black: I hope and expect confidence to return playing for a decent VFL team. Hopefully the lack on interest at trade time gives him a rocket. Would need an injury to break in though.

Wood: Fast becoming make or break to a certain degree. Might survive into 2017 with a 2016 like 2015, but that would be his final year to cement a spot.

Dumont: Seems to be ready to go. But again, how does he fit into the best 22?

Threats

Waite/Higgins: Despite them both turning up to preseason day 1, i still hold some reservations. They both had career best years last year. Hitting that mark again may prove wishful thinking (probably more so in Waite's case given his age).

Petrie: Thought he had a good 2015 being the main man every game (bar one for suspension). Getting on though so may not play to the same level. In terms of concern this ranks low individually as i expect Brown to have a very good year. However if a drop off in form coincides with similar from Waite we may struggle.

Spud: Wouldn't be surprised if he has a down year. No real reason for this other than gut feel. We do seem to have some cover for him however.

Boomer: Surely he can't keep playing to such a high level in the year when he breaks the all time record for games played. Surely.

If Lindsay's injury worries are sorted I expect a much better 2016 from him - I'd include him in your organic growth list.

 

[the big lebowski]

If Lindsay's injury worries are sorted I expect a much better 2016 from him - I'd include him in your organic growth list.

True that. Though LT's antics almost reached a tipping point for me last year.

 

[sickmick92]

Firstly, Nathan Freeman isn't a loss because he hasn't played a single game. He can't weaken the Collingwood team because he's never been in it. One of the reasons he left was because he didn't even rate his own chances of getting a game, which is a shit attitude to have

Hahahaha! He left because your saviour Nafan offered him a bullshit contract (bear in mind he was on comparative peanuts as it was) so that Collingwood could afford to bring in their targets.

 

[ArjenTheGreat]

Low hanging fruit. Looks like Arjen took a bite too.

Funnily enough I don't have access to The Age, (I don't like the whole subscription thing) I live predominantly in the Qantas lounge, but spend most of my time between Queensland, Singapore, Philippines and London. I avoid Melbourne unless the boys are running around, in which case I make special exemption.

 

[hilly]

Firstly there aren't any stand-out teams above apart from Hawthorn, and even they were simply just better than the rest this year without ever really looking invincible.

Ha yeah apart from the Grand Final.

 

[Egga]

Without paying any attention to the Pies i thought i might have a look at our upside for next year.

I have broken it into 3 categories:

1: Organic growth from within best 22

2: New players to come into the best 22

3: Potential for regression in best 22 players

Organic Growth of Best 22

Assuming that the pre lim final is our best 22, with Turner out and Wells in, i see upside as follows:

Wells: Obviously this is being very hopeful but i just can't imagine that he will have a third year in a row like he has. That would end his career in such a disappointing manner. I can't see us getting 22 games plus finals out of him but i pray/hope/expect him to be there for the big games and to make a difference.

Ziebell/Cunnington: Upside is there for me. I say it every year but another years development should see a small incremental increase in output for 2 of our most vital players.

Goldy: Essentially improves every year. Obviously we would not expect the same leap as last year but a small improvement again would be invaluable.

Brown: Never had a preseason but looks ready to kick on from what was a disappointing end to the year in the finals. Expecting 40 goals from him this year.

Garner: See Brown. Fit and firing playing 22 games should improve our forward half with pressure acts alone.

Atley: Great second half to the year after looking like he was going to stagnate. Play him off half back and be done with it IMO.

Tarrant: Surprised most in 2015. Just need him to back it up and hope for some small improvement that comes with belief, experience etc.

Swallow: Still think he isn't back to his best yet. Maybe he never will but i still think he can improve part of the way there.

Jacobs: Didn't think i would be writing this but a full years worth of tagging might help us win a game or two extra throughout the year.

New Players into the Best 22

So this is hard because to come in, someone has to go out.

In my best 22, Turner has gone out for Wells.

Gibson seems the most under pressure to me. However as per the next part, there may be issues with older players dropping off, then there are always injuries.

Anderson: One would hope that he is straight into our best 22 from round 1. Whether that means replacing a Gibson or maybe an injured player from our best 22.

Mcdonald: I think he will have a very strong year. Who he gets into the team infront of is another question. I think Hansen is becoming surplus as his best footy has been too far sporadic. Spud has been great but may regress with age or need to be managed.

Black: I hope and expect confidence to return playing for a decent VFL team. Hopefully the lack on interest at trade time gives him a rocket. Would need an injury to break in though.

Wood: Fast becoming make or break to a certain degree. Might survive into 2017 with a 2016 like 2015, but that would be his final year to cement a spot.

Dumont: Seems to be ready to go. But again, how does he fit into the best 22?

Threats

Waite/Higgins: Despite them both turning up to preseason day 1, i still hold some reservations. They both had career best years last year. Hitting that mark again may prove wishful thinking (probably more so in Waite's case given his age).

Petrie: Thought he had a good 2015 being the main man every game (bar one for suspension). Getting on though so may not play to the same level. In terms of concern this ranks low individually as i expect Brown to have a very good year. However if a drop off in form coincides with similar from Waite we may struggle.

Spud: Wouldn't be surprised if he has a down year. No real reason for this other than gut feel. We do seem to have some cover for him however.

Boomer: Surely he can't keep playing to such a high level in the year when he breaks the all time record for games played. Surely.

Good summary. I would also add Dal Santo to orgasmic improvement - he missed about 10 games last year.

Flip side is that, other than Wells, Dal and LT, the rest of our best 22 had a good run with injury. Dal will hopefully have a better 2016, but I guess we should expect someone else to be missing.

 

[TooUglyForFugly]

Good summary. I would also add Dal Santo to orgasmic improvement - he missed about 10 games last year.

Flip side is that, other than Wells, Dal and LT, the rest of our best 22 had a good run with injury. Dal will hopefully have a better 2017, but I guess we should expect someone else to be missing.

2017?

 

[Egga]

2017?

Edited, thanks. Think I might have been getting a it ahead of myself...

 

[TooUglyForFugly]

Edited, thanks. Think I might have been getting a it ahead of myself...

Two weeks

 

[boneofshin]

Edited, thanks. Think I might have been getting a it ahead of myself...

I think you were getting ahead of yourself when you talked about Dal's orgasmic improvement :sternlook

 

[MeatHookSodomy]

Without paying any attention to the Pies i thought i might have a look at our upside for next year.

I have broken it into 3 categories:

1: Organic growth from within best 22

2: New players to come into the best 22

3: Potential for regression in best 22 players

Organic Growth of Best 22

Assuming that the pre lim final is our best 22, with Turner out and Wells in, i see upside as follows:

Wells: Obviously this is being very hopeful but i just can't imagine that he will have a third year in a row like he has. That would end his career in such a disappointing manner. I can't see us getting 22 games plus finals out of him but i pray/hope/expect him to be there for the big games and to make a difference.

Ziebell/Cunnington: Upside is there for me. I say it every year but another years development should see a small incremental increase in output for 2 of our most vital players.

Goldy: Essentially improves every year. Obviously we would not expect the same leap as last year but a small improvement again would be invaluable.

Brown: Never had a preseason but looks ready to kick on from what was a disappointing end to the year in the finals. Expecting 40 goals from him this year.

Garner: See Brown. Fit and firing playing 22 games should improve our forward half with pressure acts alone.

Atley: Great second half to the year after looking like he was going to stagnate. Play him off half back and be done with it IMO.

Tarrant: Surprised most in 2015. Just need him to back it up and hope for some small improvement that comes with belief, experience etc.

Swallow: Still think he isn't back to his best yet. Maybe he never will but i still think he can improve part of the way there.

Jacobs: Didn't think i would be writing this but a full years worth of tagging might help us win a game or two extra throughout the year.

New Players into the Best 22

So this is hard because to come in, someone has to go out.

In my best 22, Turner has gone out for Wells.

Gibson seems the most under pressure to me. However as per the next part, there may be issues with older players dropping off, then there are always injuries.

Anderson: One would hope that he is straight into our best 22 from round 1. Whether that means replacing a Gibson or maybe an injured player from our best 22.

Mcdonald: I think he will have a very strong year. Who he gets into the team infront of is another question. I think Hansen is becoming surplus as his best footy has been too far sporadic. Spud has been great but may regress with age or need to be managed.

Black: I hope and expect confidence to return playing for a decent VFL team. Hopefully the lack on interest at trade time gives him a rocket. Would need an injury to break in though.

Wood: Fast becoming make or break to a certain degree. Might survive into 2017 with a 2016 like 2015, but that would be his final year to cement a spot.

Dumont: Seems to be ready to go. But again, how does he fit into the best 22?

Threats

Waite/Higgins: Despite them both turning up to preseason day 1, i still hold some reservations. They both had career best years last year. Hitting that mark again may prove wishful thinking (probably more so in Waite's case given his age).

Petrie: Thought he had a good 2015 being the main man every game (bar one for suspension). Getting on though so may not play to the same level. In terms of concern this ranks low individually as i expect Brown to have a very good year. However if a drop off in form coincides with similar from Waite we may struggle.

Spud: Wouldn't be surprised if he has a down year. No real reason for this other than gut feel. We do seem to have some cover for him however.

Boomer: Surely he can't keep playing to such a high level in the year when he breaks the all time record for games played. Surely.

I would say JMac in organic growth if he can stay fit. Looked good for the most part. I am still having nightmares about the swan mark in the rain though.

 

[the big lebowski]

I would say JMac in organic growth if he can stay fit. Looked good for the most part. I am still having nightmares about the swan mark in the rain though.

You have an interesting name. Sounds uncomfortable

 

[Woodson]

Clearly Collingwood has more potential upside - underperformance will do that, as they are coming off a much lower base and have more room to improve. Having said that, North's finals shouldn't offset the fact the team barely hit first gear through the home and away - the couple of times they did play well should remind us how much more scope for improvement we have in our list, despite finishing top four with a bullet.

The obvious point to make about Collingwood's upside is that it is probably still a couple of years away from hitting its prime, so a big jump next year seems optimistic (and even longer term, they will need the kids to peak and have Cloke still firing).

I agree wholeheartedly with your comments here H2H but at the same time, I can easily see the Pies pulling off a North of the last two seasons.. coming from outside the Top 4 to play-off in the prelim. Look at what Simmo has done with WCE in just his second season minus losing KPP. Buckley knows what he is doing. Most coaches are scapegoats anyway… it's the players not willing to respond that makes the coaches post-game address very awkward. I find it amusing how certain coaches find the most amusing angles of approach in their post game addresses after a loss. Some will do the smart thing and praise the opposition enough that it mows down the excuses of why their team lost. Brad knows… well, I hope he does.. that MULTIPLE DUMB LOSSES can't be tolerated if North want to finish Top 4. North will have ONE at least. Most top teams seem to drop a game where the lesser team plays LIGHTS OUT and squeezes over the line. That's ok… but when it becomes a common pattern is why certain coaches NEED to cop it sweet from the fan base/ media.

 

[Woodson]

And does anyone else remember back in 1990 when the Pies broke their 32 year Premiership drought, the Sun or the Herald Sun or whatever it was called back then dined out on that result all the way to Christmas and the New Year.

Considering they have mass appeal.. That's perfectly ok.. consider that when else do you want the 'hidden stories' from GF players sprawl out??

Everyone has story. That's the great thing about sports. The Shane Clayton story is a beauty, the Brett Allison comeback late in the season of '99 is another gem to read up on.. then there are heartbreakers… like Matty Armstrong and Jason McCartney. Cam Mooney being at the right place, right time.. And how about Stevo?? The way he was NEVER gonna play with the ankle injury… the docs did one helluva job. There are literally katrillion stories out there. Much of the season why I embraced the NFL from way back in the late 80's. Wayne Schwass was a guest on Corey's post cast last season and they were talking about Pagan, how Schwatter fell in love with the NFL for much of the season of captivating stories inspired into a movie. Great listening.