Happy to accept fwiw
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VAFA General Discussion
- Thread starter Max Leader
- Start date
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I understand that... but at the moment they are shutting schools and entire countries. You think if players started getting sick they league would continue on?
That's an improvident comment from one so usually astute, Hedge.
HedgeFund
Norm Smith Medallist
Four countries have 90% of the cases. Italy, China, Sth Korea and Iran. A measured, sensible approach is all we need in Victoria (where we have a total of 21 cases out of a population of 5 million).
So yes, even if some players get sick, I’d expect the league to continue. We never stopped the whole season when a nasty bug went through a particular team/club in the past did we? The club tells the sick players to steer clear to ensure other players don’t catch it.
A commonsense approach which has worked well in the past 120 years
I hope your right but the country is bracing for a large outbreak. Let’s hope some solutions and containment is found.
Spot on
Over The Post
🐍Bless The OOBs🐍
- Nov 17, 2007
- 19,787
- 26,567
- AFL Club
- Richmond
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Ophidian Old Boys
We haven't had a nasty bug that an asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic person can transmit to others, either.
- Nov 13, 2006
- 4,329
- 3,196
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Boston Celtics
If worse-case scenario hits and the city gets locked down ala Wuhan I'd say it'll be a case of the weeks lost are either made up during bye weekends or not replayed and the points split. I can't see us losing a season.
I think there is a 100% chance that the VAFA will be seriously affected. I lean much closer to the comp being cancelled than us just having a normal season. But I’m hopeful we can all pull through and have a great finals series for all divisions, after an interrupted season. Keep washing those hands!
- Thread starter
- #359
- Oct 7, 2002
- 16,172
- 16,873
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
We can’t really predict anything but it wouldn’t be surprising to see comps seriously affected - 20-50% of the worlds population will be catching this thing over the next few months so there will definitely be some sort of impact.
HedgeFund
Norm Smith Medallist
Where on earth did you pull that statistic?
In China - the number of cases detected and closed (survived) is 62811. That’s 0.000056% of the population and it’s dramatically slowing down. Only 14816 are still active, and less than 100 new cases today.
How on earth will 1.6 - 4 billion people catch it?
Over The Post
🐍Bless The OOBs🐍
- Nov 17, 2007
- 19,787
- 26,567
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Other Teams
- Ophidian Old Boys
something something the world is not and will not implement a China-style lockdown until the disease runs its course something something nearly six billion people living outside China something something third world something something quality of health care something something.
Having spent several hours a day over the last month keeping tabs on how this pandemic has progressed and the responses of various governments to an evolving situation, I have got utterly sick and tired of trying to share information and asking people to make their own informed decisions rather than scream doomsday or pass it off as just a flu she'll be right mate.
The closer Australia comes to the wheels falling off, the more dismissive and strident and flippant the noise becomes.
We're not all going to die.
A lot of people will.
And regardless of how many do or don't, the entire nation is going to be shaken up like a mentos in a bottle of coke as far as the economy is concerned.
The correct place for further discussion external to its impact on VAFA, players and clubs is here:
www.bigfooty.com
Good luck everyone, I stop now
Having spent several hours a day over the last month keeping tabs on how this pandemic has progressed and the responses of various governments to an evolving situation, I have got utterly sick and tired of trying to share information and asking people to make their own informed decisions rather than scream doomsday or pass it off as just a flu she'll be right mate.
The closer Australia comes to the wheels falling off, the more dismissive and strident and flippant the noise becomes.
We're not all going to die.
A lot of people will.
And regardless of how many do or don't, the entire nation is going to be shaken up like a mentos in a bottle of coke as far as the economy is concerned.
The correct place for further discussion external to its impact on VAFA, players and clubs is here:
Science/Environment - Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Pandemic Declared
It looks like it began in dirty wild animals being sold for huma consumption, and once again the consequences of this stupidity is possibly being forced on the rest of us. I hope that this leads to the end of unsanitary cruel treatment of animals over there, but it probably won't. Updated...
www.bigfooty.com
Good luck everyone, I stop now
- Nov 13, 2006
- 4,329
- 3,196
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Boston Celtics
My mail is that the VAFA is meeting this arvo and sounds like we may be postponing until Easter and then re-assess after that...not sure if anyone has heard similar? Not sure what implications will be regarding trainings and practice matches...
eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Not sure about the rest of the clubs but we're going forward with training and practice matches right now. If they delay after easter (but does end up starting then) would it be a case of round 1 gets moved into one of the bye rounds so everyone still plays everyone twice?
- Nov 13, 2006
- 4,329
- 3,196
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Boston Celtics
I think decision on the season structure will be made at a later date if things go as they sound like they will. Depending on how many weeks we end up being delayed, we could make up the lost games during bye rounds? We may be guided by the AFL season - if they can push the whole season back a month then probably so too can the VAFA.
I would say my club (and most for that matter) would want to proceed with training and practice matches as normal. We may be advised not to, though.
Over The Post
🐍Bless The OOBs🐍
- Nov 17, 2007
- 19,787
- 26,567
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Other Teams
- Ophidian Old Boys
The difference between the AFL pushing the season back a month and the VAFA pushing the season back a month is that the AFL does not have dozens of cricket clubs demanding they get off the ovals at the instant Round 18 concludes. Good luck with that one.
- Nov 13, 2006
- 4,329
- 3,196
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Boston Celtics
Very good point
shows I've not been involved in local cricket for a long time.EFL have suspended all training and club activities until further notice
EFL have suspended all activity (training, practice matches etc) until further notice. Expect all suburban comps to do the same. This pandemic isn't expected to peak until late May, let alone subside...my money is on either a total abandonment of football season at some stage, or a half season/ few games at the back end for fun.
- Thread starter
- #369
Tipping the hairless one will want that one back!
Biggest problem is if an active player in a practice match or early round gets diagnosed then by law all players & some officials/volunteers from both teams may have to disappear for 14 days? What happens to the following 2 weeks matches? Players that live with elderly parents will have to make huge decisions.
Looks like a lost season.
THE EYE
Biggest problem is if an active player in a practice match or early round gets diagnosed then by law all players & some officials/volunteers from both teams may have to disappear for 14 days? What happens to the following 2 weeks matches? Players that live with elderly parents will have to make huge decisions.
Looks like a lost season.
THE EYE
Hair Hat
Cancelled
- Oct 20, 2019
- 97
- 92
- AFL Club
- North Melbourne
Not many 81 year old's playing local footy. So what happens when someone returns from overseas in July and brings it back with them? Do we start the merry go round again? Just trying to be realistic or we will never play sport again.
Over The Post
🐍Bless The OOBs🐍
- Nov 17, 2007
- 19,787
- 26,567
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Other Teams
- Ophidian Old Boys
It's not the fit young players who are the concern, although they should be. There's what, 3000+ VAFA players total? Someone give me an accurate figure if you've got one. Say a third of players pick up the virus and two thirds get off Old Scotch free.
On numbers alone - which are remarkably consistent worldwide - of those 1000 players:
830 will have no symptoms or will experience a mild case - "mild" being anything from a sore throat to pneumonia
120 will require hospitalisation
50 will require life support
2 will die
Fit, young, strong as an ox and completely invulnerable. For their age group, the case fatality rate is 0.2%. Do the math and prove me wrong.
But 1000 players were infectious. People appearing to be in rude health pass it on before symptoms show (if indeed they have any obvious symptoms), and become most infectious in the 48-72 hours immediately afterward.
On average they will have passed it on to (lowest average) 2.2 people. That's 2200 workmates / friends / family. Family includes parents and grandparents. The 0.2% death rate is consistent until people hit their 50s, then it goes up exponentially.
So the 81 year olds don't have to play footy. They just need to have Timmy pay a visit with the great-grandkids while infectious. Or they just need to toddle down to the ground to sit in the rooms perched up near the window talking about young Timmy's chances and how he would have been a shoe-in for the 1953 premiership side. And if they catch it and they have good karma and everything is in their favour, they will have a 1 in 5 chance of dying. Unless our wonderfully underfunded and overstretched health system doesn't have the beds, equipment and staff to look after everybody, in which case intensivists will examine their case on its merits and apply numerous criteria before deciding the limited resources are best spent on someone who is more likely to pull through, who is more likely to have a shorter stay in hospital, and who is more likely to lead a better quality of life post-treatment.
Informed opinion is a marvellous thing; it allows inquiring minds to make better decisions than if their sole knowledge is based on whatever the news and social media regurgitates and whatever the government wants you to hear. Get informed.
On numbers alone - which are remarkably consistent worldwide - of those 1000 players:
830 will have no symptoms or will experience a mild case - "mild" being anything from a sore throat to pneumonia
120 will require hospitalisation
50 will require life support
2 will die
Fit, young, strong as an ox and completely invulnerable. For their age group, the case fatality rate is 0.2%. Do the math and prove me wrong.
But 1000 players were infectious. People appearing to be in rude health pass it on before symptoms show (if indeed they have any obvious symptoms), and become most infectious in the 48-72 hours immediately afterward.
On average they will have passed it on to (lowest average) 2.2 people. That's 2200 workmates / friends / family. Family includes parents and grandparents. The 0.2% death rate is consistent until people hit their 50s, then it goes up exponentially.
So the 81 year olds don't have to play footy. They just need to have Timmy pay a visit with the great-grandkids while infectious. Or they just need to toddle down to the ground to sit in the rooms perched up near the window talking about young Timmy's chances and how he would have been a shoe-in for the 1953 premiership side. And if they catch it and they have good karma and everything is in their favour, they will have a 1 in 5 chance of dying. Unless our wonderfully underfunded and overstretched health system doesn't have the beds, equipment and staff to look after everybody, in which case intensivists will examine their case on its merits and apply numerous criteria before deciding the limited resources are best spent on someone who is more likely to pull through, who is more likely to have a shorter stay in hospital, and who is more likely to lead a better quality of life post-treatment.
Informed opinion is a marvellous thing; it allows inquiring minds to make better decisions than if their sole knowledge is based on whatever the news and social media regurgitates and whatever the government wants you to hear. Get informed.
The medical modelling based on the Australian approach to flatten the curve suggests the peak activity in Australia will be June/July. This will limit mortality and allow health system to best deal with surge. Hard to see football being played.
