Mega Thread VICBias - Genuine Discussion Part 2

[AstonSouffle]

Why did Optus stop at 60k capacity, found that it wasnt a massive increase over the previous stadium ?

The argument goes that WAFC realised they'd rather still be able to charge their premium pricing, and artificially kept it down.

Everyone said it should have been 80k, but clearly Freo don't pack out 60k so unsure if that version of events holds much water.

 

[sr36]

But that could continue on, Hawthorn appear to be on the up, Geelong rarely slump, the next decade could see Hawthorn win another 2 or 3, Geelong the same, throw in Carlton who are in the equation without their injuries, the Dogs too.
In 10yrs time it could easily be another 8-2 split to Vic clubs because 2 or 3 of the above have had 'the best list and or tactics'.
I dont think its fair to simply say we're just better, without addressing the imbalance that it results in.

Yeah it could continue on or it might switch to a powerhouse from Brisbane, like preceded it. In the short term, I think Sydney are the most likely and GC are putting together one hell of a list. Port are strong. Fremantle just have a couple of holes to fill. Dogs have some awesome players and a couple of youngsters that could be anything.

 

[doppleganger]

Lets consider that H&A fixturing balances out as evident in the even split of Vic v non Vic final 8 over the past 10yrs.

Who cares about final 8?
You want to be top4 (top2 really) to make the GF.

In the last 10 years, the 5 Melbourne teams who are Marvel tenants have combined for 0 top4 finishes.

In the last 10 years, non-vic sides have dominated the top of the table.

BL - 4 top4 finishes, 3 of them being top2
GWS - 3 top4 finishes
PA - 4 top4 finishes, 3 of them being top2
Syd - 5 top4 finishes, 3 of them being top2
WC - 2 top4 finishes, both being top2

Collingwood the most advantaged Melbourne team in terms of fixture have had 4 top4 finishes, only 1 of them being top2.

H&A fixturing is biased towards teams who retain a home ground advantage, AFL House policy reduced Melbourne teams home ground advantage.

The results speak for themselves, the H&A fixture is biased to teams who actually enjoy home game advantage.

Lets also consider finals are also fairly balanced over the past 10yrs.

Non-vic teams have lost 5 PFs at home ground to travelling teams in the last 10 years

It is only Collingwood in 2019 who have lost a home ground PF to a travelling team.

It is a fact that hardened superstar teams like Richmond and Hawthorn were able to win finals on the road on thier way to flags.

 

[HR Roughnstuf]

I guess if you look at the final 8 over the past decade and a half the fact that its been a 50/50 split of Vic v non Vic suggests that the advantages/disadvantages across the league balance out.
We have Freo and GC underperforming, you have North and Essendon.

When you look beyond the H&A it becomes obvious that come GF day there is no question that the advantage swings heavily to Vic clubs when playing a Non Vic and its those Vic teams that get watered down advantages/disadvantages that have benefitted the most.
Geelong with its unique home ground with MCG familiarity thrown in, Hawthorn with its Tassy fortress and MCG familiarity.
Collingwood/Richmond with their large supporter base and MCG home ground.
All dominant teams in that period.

So the question needs to be asked, if fixturing with all its advantages/disadvantages leads us to a balanced final 8, the finals through its balanced pathways leads to often Vic v non Vic GF's, why do Vic clubs lead the way 13-2.
Surely you can conceed that if non Vic clubs can make the GF via a balanced system that the GF is an issue that non Vics cant overcome to any worthwhile extent and something needs to be done.

You have it the wrong way around. Vic teams dominating non-vics in grand finals is because the system is stacked against vic teams making it to the GF. If they can make it to the GF they are more likely to be a better team than a non-vic who can bank wins with a genuine homeground advantage.

Let’s compare the H&A 2024 seasons for our clubs.

Port Adelaide (counting Adelaide Oval as a home ground):
Games with a home ground advantage: 11
Neutral games: 2
Games with a home ground disadvantage: 10

Hawthorn, counting the MCG and Launceston as home grounds:
Games with a home ground advantage: 6
Neutral games: 9
Games with a home ground disadvantage: 8

What a massively significant advantage to Port Adelaide here. There is also an argument that Port playing North Melbourne in Hobart is a neutral game.

This is the reason why non-vic teams disproportionately dominate the top 8, the advantageous H&A fixture gets them there, but get found wanting on the biggest stage.

 

[AstonSouffle]

Bleh if you ran the numbers, of average attendance vs. out of state teams, then as a percentage of that clubs membership... effectively an actual assessment of how loyal a club's fans are. My hypothesis is that for the most part across the league this would be quite even and it would have a mixture of Vic/Non-Vic sides.

Game is healthy, I don't think it's VicBias, I think it's can the blockheads at the top go through effective change management and consult who they need to consult first?

Take this NGA stuff, Melbourne should be bashing down the door asking why they got their pants pulled down not getting Mac Andrew and the ruling is reversed later. To a lesser extent Motlop for Freo, and I'm sure there's others. It's just dumb.

What I do wish is that there was more collective celebration that our game is our national game, and that marquee events outside of Victoria are championed in the media. Gather Round is a step in the right direction (celebrating SA), and I hope this continues because well... it's good for everyone.

 

[JackOutback]

Who cares about final 8?
You want to be top4 (top2 really) to make the GF.

In the last 10 years, the 5 Melbourne teams who are Marvel tenants have combined for 0 top4 finishes.

In the last 10 years, non-vic sides have dominated the top of the table.

BL - 4 top4 finishes, 3 of them being top2
GWS - 3 top4 finishes
PA - 4 top4 finishes, 3 of them being top2
Syd - 5 top4 finishes, 3 of them being top2
WC - 2 top4 finishes, both being top2

Collingwood the most advantaged Melbourne team in terms of fixture have had 4 top4 finishes, only 1 of them being top2.

H&A fixturing is biased towards teams who retain a home ground advantage, AFL House policy reduced Melbourne teams home ground advantage.

The results speak for themselves, the H&A fixture is biased to teams who actually enjoy home game advantage.


Non-vic teams have lost 5 PFs at home ground to travelling teams in the last 10 years

It is only Collingwood in 2019 who have lost a home ground PF to a travelling team.

It is a fact that hardened superstar teams like Richmond and Hawthorn were able to win finals on the road on thier way to flags.

And if the ultimate prize was making the preliminary final, you might have a point. Who cares if you have a slightly greater chance of getting a home prelim if the result of winning that is giving another team the advantage in the only match that matters.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

We won't know, let's wait until the 15 year period has concluded. Don't jump at shadows and what ifs, It's a poor mindset.

Not when you have a clear trend.
You mob want to point to vic v non vic GF results to paint a balanced picturs, but even that is skewed to pre and post 07.
Surely your argument isnt that trends are influenced by an imaginary line dividing vic clubs to the rest?

The chances of pre 07 GF''s going to non Vics followed by post 07 going to vics being a legitimate set of results is laughable, it simply shouldnt happen like that and I challenge anyone to find another sporting competition in the world where 15yr swings in success occur based on geography that havent had artificial influence applied.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

So if they had made ‘pro vic’ changes the situation would clearly be worse now? So why make changes based on ‘vibe’

I’d suggest wooden spooner 2023 west coast not getting its second draft pick till pick 30 might suggest where issues lie

Lol, its 15-2 in actual Premierships and 9-2 when a Vic plays a non Vic since, how much worse would you like it before questions are asked?

 

[PenfoldsFan]

Yeah it could continue on or it might switch to a powerhouse from Brisbane, like preceded it. In the short term, I think Sydney are the most likely and GC are putting together one hell of a list. Port are strong. Fremantle just have a couple of holes to fill. Dogs have some awesome players and a couple of youngsters that could be anything.

Where does the form guide suggest a gambler stake their money?

 

[sr36]

Where does the form guide suggest a gambler stake their money?

You can have North. I'll have Sydney. A slab for the next flag?

 

[PenfoldsFan]

Who cares about final 8?
You want to be top4 (top2 really) to make the GF.

In the last 10 years, the 5 Melbourne teams who are Marvel tenants have combined for 0 top4 finishes.

In the last 10 years, non-vic sides have dominated the top of the table.

BL - 4 top4 finishes, 3 of them being top2
GWS - 3 top4 finishes
PA - 4 top4 finishes, 3 of them being top2
Syd - 5 top4 finishes, 3 of them being top2
WC - 2 top4 finishes, both being top2

Collingwood the most advantaged Melbourne team in terms of fixture have had 4 top4 finishes, only 1 of them being top2.

H&A fixturing is biased towards teams who retain a home ground advantage, AFL House policy reduced Melbourne teams home ground advantage.

The results speak for themselves, the H&A fixture is biased to teams who actually enjoy home game advantage.


Non-vic teams have lost 5 PFs at home ground to travelling teams in the last 10 years

It is only Collingwood in 2019 who have lost a home ground PF to a travelling team.

It is a fact that hardened superstar teams like Richmond and Hawthorn were able to win finals on the road on thier way to flags.

Well if vic clubs are still winning flags despite poorer top 2/4 placings then there must be an imbalance somewhere as it defies logic, this should be acknowledged, investigated and rectified.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

You can have North. I'll have Sydney. A slab for the next flag?

Deflection post.

Try again.

 

[SuperSub17]

And if the ultimate prize was making the preliminary final, you might have a point. Who cares if you have a slightly greater chance of getting a home prelim if the result of winning that is giving another team the advantage in the only match that matters.

This is some bizarro logic.

Doesn’t matter who you are, to win a flag you must:

a) Make a prelim
b) Win that prelim
c) Win the GF

That’s it. There are no other paths.

So there ARE other matches that matter. It then follows that advantages in A and B do help you compared to if you don’t have them.

(I’m not saying that one necessarily outweighs the other, btw - but that’s what this thread is about)

 

[PenfoldsFan]

You have it the wrong way around. Vic teams dominating non-vics in grand finals is because the system is stacked against vic teams making it to the GF. If they can make it to the GF they are more likely to be a better team than a non-vic who can bank wins with a genuine homeground advantage.

Let’s compare the H&A 2024 seasons for our clubs.

Port Adelaide (counting Adelaide Oval as a home ground):
Games with a home ground advantage: 11
Neutral games: 2
Games with a home ground disadvantage: 10

Hawthorn, counting the MCG and Launceston as home grounds:
Games with a home ground advantage: 6
Neutral games: 9
Games with a home ground disadvantage: 8

What a massively significant advantage to Port Adelaide here. There is also an argument that Port playing North Melbourne in Hobart is a neutral game.

This is the reason why non-vic teams disproportionately dominate the top 8, the advantageous H&A fixture gets them there, but get found wanting on the biggest stage.

So you think the 8 should be 6 vic and 2 non vic with the GF advantage also to the 6 vic clubs yeah?

In a national competition?

 

[sr36]

Deflection post.

Try again.

Basically, the way I see it, we've had

Brisbane then Geelong then Haw then Richmond as dominant teams recently who a brace of flags each.
3 Vic 1 Non Vic.

Then other teams who were generally thereabouts without being dominant and have snuck a couple of flags each here and there Collingwood, WCE and Sydney - 1 Vic and 2 Non-Vic.

Then you've had the 1 flag teams - Port, Melb and Dogs who've had shorter stints without getting to dominant eras
1 NV, 2 Vic.

I'm just not seeing the Vic/NV thing. I see 18 teams with different advantages and disadvantages.But most of all I see a really even comp. We're going into a final series where the whole top 8 other than Carlton have a shot. Yet all we're hearing about is intenable bias - even from the teams getting the easiest path into the Granny. And I think the 9th team would go OK if they were in there too.

You guys have a great path to the Granny. Try enjoying that and hoping your boys are good enough to get you there before worrying about who you will meet and whether or not they have been on a plane recently. I sure as hell hope you give the Cats a touch up - no idea who you'll get after that.

 

[doppleganger]

and yet, 15 of the last 17 premiers have been Victorian. You would think those numbers would indicate something was wrong.

11 of the 15 were won by 3 teams.

All it indicates is that Geelong, Hawthorn and Richmond have produced really good teams.

Geelong and Hawthorn are the two vic clubs who are closest to non-vic clubs.

Geelong have their own unique home ground advantage, they also have own region and attract players by not being in Melbourne for the more relaxed lifestyle.

Hawks travel 9-10 times every season, and play the least games in Melbourne during H&A.

Richmond won 4 premiership

 

[RUNVS]

11 of the 15 were won by 3 teams.

Yes, and all 3 of those teams were able to use free agency to lengthen their premiership window.

 

[doppleganger]

Well if vic clubs are still winning flags despite poorer top 2/4 placings then there must be an imbalance somewhere as it defies logic, this should be acknowledged, investigated and rectified.

Agree, the H&A fixture needs to be rectified to stop bog average teams like Adelaide, Brisbane and WC to ride their ground imbalance to an undererved H&A ladder position.

Thus they wouldn't get the undeserved easy run of home finals to qualify for a GF, where they just sit back for a good month with no travel, and get used to even more ground advantage to qualify for the GF.

Then get shown up as frauds on GF day by a hardened team who wins anywhere and everywhere.

 

[doppleganger]

Yes, and all 3 of those teams were able to use free agency to lengthen their premiership window.

Why do you pretend that it is a Victorian list management strategy only?

Brisbane have succesfully attracted senior talent via trade / FA also.

The following is the list of senior talent Brisbane attracted in last 7 off-seasons

C.Cameron, L.Hodge, M.Adams, L.McCarthy, L.Neale, J.Lyons, Ah Chee, Birchall, Ellis Yeoman, Daniher, Cockatoo, D.Fort, Gunston, Dunkley, Doedee

In that time they also enjoyed 4 QLD zone draft picks, plus some star father son picks.

Lions have finished - 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 2nd, 5th - enjoying 9 home finals in last 6 seasons.

But you somehow think they are disadvantaged compared clubs like Essendon or North.

 

[sr36]

11 of the 15 were won by 3 teams.

All it indicates is that Geelong, Hawthorn and Richmond have produced really good teams.

Yep. The 9 other Vic teams couldn't match those teams either.

We're about to embark on a final's series and as always the two top teams have the best path to the Granny and are thus in the best position to win the flag. One of those teams had their ladder position helped by getting an extra home ground advantage game. The other one has been helped by special recruiting rules that have given them priority access to 3 All Australian stars. Yet their fans are claiming that the cards are stacked against them ...

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Agree, the H&A fixture needs to be rectified to stop bog average teams like Adelaide, Brisbane and WC to ride their ground imbalance to an undererved H&A ladder position.

Thus they wouldn't get the undeserved easy run of home finals to qualify for a GF, where they just sit back for a good month with no travel, and get used to even more ground advantage to qualify for the GF.

Then get shown up as frauds on GF day by a hardened team who wins anywhere and everywhere.

I too enjoyed 2018

 

[Byron_Clanger]

I too enjoyed 2018

Mate's still filthy about Rioli and Sheed. Literally seething

 

[sr36]

Yes, and all 3 of those teams were able to use free agency to lengthen their premiership window.

2 of them had their great teams weakened by Free Agency - losing the two best players of that generation.

Does it only count in one direction?

 

[doppleganger]

I too enjoyed 2018

I enjoyed 2018 too, the big PF upset of Richmond was one of my fav nights at the footy ever. Perhaps unfair that Rich didnt get any ground advantage in either of their 2018 finals, but that is how week1-3 works for Vic teams.

WC were better than the Pies in 2018, beat us twice at the G and also in Perth.

 

[doppleganger]

2 of them had their great teams weakened by Free Agency - losing the two best players of that generation.

Does it only count in one direction?

It is "good faith" RUNVS you are talking to!

He will somehow twist Buddy walking out on Hawthorn and going to Sydney as evidence that Sydney are disadvantaged.