Victorian Covid Outbreak 2021

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500 odd cases today, will probably hit 4 figures by next week I’d imagine
And all this plus more in Lockdown

Coming next week, the amazing plan to see us out of Lockdown.
 

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It's getting to the point where case numbers are meaningless to be honest.
It's an important data point to scale up though. If the hospitalisation rate is way down on expectations then there is more scope to open. Which you are saying.
 
It's getting to the point where case numbers are meaningless to be honest. Hospitalisation numbers are the thing to watch. Interestingly enough, Victoria is trending better than NSW in terms of cases in hospital.


In terms of the health outcomes yes. In terms of effectiveness though they are bad news.

We are in a full lockdown without much more than can be done in terms of rules and it is not controlling the spread, only slowing it.
 
It's getting to the point where case numbers are meaningless to be honest. Hospitalisation numbers are the thing to watch. Interestingly enough, Victoria is trending better than NSW in terms of cases in hospital.


The more cases you have the more likely you are to get a higher rate of hospitalisations. They aren’t meaningless, in fact they will be so high that Dan will likely skip the 70% and not do anything anything meaningful until 80%
 
The more cases you have the more likely you are to get a higher rate of hospitalisations. They aren’t meaningless, in fact they will be so high that Dan will likely skip the 70% and not do anything anything meaningful until 80%

That's the thing. The relationship isn't linear. As more people get vaccinated, the hospilisation rate will begin to drop. Last time I heard, there was only one person hospitalised in Victoria who was double-vaxxed.
 
In terms of the health outcomes yes. In terms of effectiveness though they are bad news.

We are in a full lockdown without much more than can be done in terms of rules and it is not controlling the spread, only slowing it.

I'm just assuming it's gone in terms of controlling the spread. As you note, the only thing that can be done is to slow it. Hopefully the vaccination rate can outpace the amount of people getting seriously ill with it. I fully expect to get COVID sometime in the future, given how infectious it is.
 
Our current vaccination rate is nowhere near "cases dont matter anymore" territory.

I'm not so sure. Even one dose is offering some protection and I reckon that's reflected in the hospitalisation numbers - 87% of those in hospital are unvaccinated in Victoria. Case numbers by all means should be reported but I can't see any scenario where they are brought to zero. Slowing the growth in case numbers is obviously a sensible public health measure so as to reduce the impact on hospital numbers.
 
12 deaths today for NSW

7 unvaccinated
.
3 were double dose fully vaccinated

It's not a magic shield as we know and deaths will still occur in the fully vaccinated, particularly in the elderly. As more people get vaccinated, we should see a higher proportion of deaths being vaccinated people. But as far as I can see in the data, you stand a much better chance of survival being double vaxxed. It's a numbers game.
 

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It's not a magic shield as we know and deaths will still occur in the fully vaccinated, particularly in the elderly. As more people get vaccinated, we should see a higher proportion of deaths being vaccinated people. But as far as I can see in the data, you stand a much better chance of survival being double vaxxed. It's a numbers game.
And also: "Of the people in intensive care, 172 are unvaccinated, 50 have received one dose and six were fully inoculated"...
 
Spend 18 months completely terrifying your own people and keeping them locked down, then turn around and say this


We have got to normalise this, we have got to pass through and beyond this pandemic.”

The Premier said he did not believe that vaccine passports would be a permanent feature of everyday life.

We don’t have a passport for the flu,” he said.
 
Spend 18 months completely terrifying your own people and keeping them locked down, then turn around and say this


We have got to normalise this, we have got to pass through and beyond this pandemic.”

The Premier said he did not believe that vaccine passports would be a permanent feature of everyday life.

We don’t have a passport for the flu,” he said.

Are you trying to make some kind of point here, or are you running with the "it's just a flu" line?
 
Spend 18 months completely terrifying your own people and keeping them locked down, then turn around and say this


We have got to normalise this, we have got to pass through and beyond this pandemic.”

The Premier said he did not believe that vaccine passports would be a permanent feature of everyday life.

We don’t have a passport for the flu,” he said.

Yeah you've lost me here. We don't have a passport for the flu because it's not a novel virus. There is a fair bit of immunity to it and we have a full vaccination program to deal with it. Andrews noted he doesn't see it as a permanent feature of life - isn't that what you want?

In the meantime, while the public health response is still in place, those of us who have been vaccinated and are at a far lower risk of being a burden on the health system will get to more stuff than those that haven't. In time the risk will be lessened across the board as immunity builds up and there will be a time when they will be longer required. At that point, we should be able to deal with COVID in the same way we deal with the flu (despite it being far more virulent).

Just for the record, everytime I visit my father-in-law in aged care, I have to sign a declaration that I've had a flu shot.
 
So all of a sudden this wicked, deadly, highly infectious, virus becomes the flu?

No. I said you deal with it in a similar manner.

Again do you understand the concept of a novel virus? You can start to deal with it in a similar manner as immunity builds up in the population due to vaccination plus exposure to the virus itself. Because this strain is novel, humans haven't been exposed to it and therefore do not have immunity to it. It's one of the reasons why something as benign as the common cold killed indigenous populations around the world when colonists appeared - they simply didn't have the immunity to deal with it.

The main issue is how much pressure that novel virus puts on your health care system. Not just to deal with the virus itself but the impact it has on other disease. At the moment, we still getting a large number of relatively healthy people presenting at hospital with COVID.


Part of the problem here is we undersell how dangerous flu is.
 

Part of the problem here is we undersell how dangerous flu is.
Nope, sorry, no longer taking anecdotal stories from nurses and doctors seriously anymore.

If they want to provide information on hospitalisations including age, bmi and comorbidities, then I’ll gladly take a look.

But just having a random dr and nurses talk about hospitals being full of otherwise healthy young people, no longer cuts it.

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If they want to provide information on hospitalisations including age, bmi and comorbidities, then I’ll gladly take a look.

You know those hospital beds are still occupied regardless of whether they're young, fit and healthy, or old, fat and unhealthy, right?

An occupied bed is an occupied bed that's not available for someone else.

Sure, ideally we wouldn't have close to 2/3 of the population overweight or obese. But we do.
 
You know those hospital beds are still occupied regardless of whether they're young, fit and healthy, or old, fat and unhealthy, right?

An occupied bed is an occupied bed that's not available for someone else.

Sure, ideally we wouldn't have close to 2/3 of the population overweight or obese. But we do.
Then obesity is the crisis and not covid.
 

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