Victorian Covid Outbreak 2021

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The mistake people are making is thinking that the snap lockdowns were effective. In 4/6 of them, all eventual total cases were already in isolation (as in the lockdowns ended up being a complete waste of time). Contact tracing is ultimately what put those spotfires out, just as it did in outbreaks that didn't use snap lockdowns.

Winter is a different ball game for contact tracing.

I don’t think seasonality makes any real difference, only if you go by theory peoples immune systems are down thus more susceptible to viruses in winter.

Also it seems logical to me the less places people can go will limit any outbreak, as those contacted will have less places to spread it.
 
I think the solution is pretty simple - offer everyone the vaccine and if a future outbreak happens and they haven't got the vax it's on them if they get sick from it, no more lockdowns will occur.

The biggest problem is the vax's can only be administered in 2 doses months apart, which will mean the above solution will take a number of months to happen.
 
You do realise same thing has happened in SA, WA (twice), Brisbane (twice) as well as Vic since December?

Did those states also put a fella in charge of HQ who hired two unqualified fitness trainers as HQ managers?

Did they stuff up contact tracing and name the wrong supermarket?

Are their contact tracers also texting people who weren’t even at the nominated hotspots?

Our contact tracers are copping a smashing this week and rightly so. They are the worst in the country despite being called gold standard.

The Wollert case was from a fortnight ago.

What’s this, our fourth or fifth lockdown?

I’ve said it numerous times and I’ll say it again - I feel so sorry for businesses on hold this week and casual workers not knowing when their next shift will be. Utterly painful.

We’re an embarrassment.
 
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I think the solution is pretty simple - offer everyone the vaccine and if a future outbreak happens and they haven't got the vax it's on them if they get sick from it, no more lockdowns will occur.

The biggest problem is the vax's can only be administered in 2 doses months apart, which will mean the above solution will take a number of months to happen.
That will be the solution in 2022 yes once they finally get the Pfizer doses and everyone who wants it can get the shot. At that point they’ll open the international borders and for the anti-vaxxers there’ll probably be atleast hundreds if not more deaths then, but that will be on them
 
Did they stuff up contact tracing and name the wrong supermarket?
They can only go on the information provided. And most of the issues in the past have been with information deliberately withheld.

They were probably told they went to Woolworths in Epping and both Woolworth Epping and Woolworths Epping North are both in Epping and it's not something a customer is going to pay attention to what each one is called. Even bank records would just show Woolworths #### Epping Vic (which is probably where they caught the mistakes as the store number would have gotten checked) but they don't get access to bank record immediately just what they are told by the person they are interviewing.

Probably the only other case that could be more confusing if it was Woolworths Karingal because there were 2 in the same shopping centre.
 
Did those states also put a fella in charge of HQ who hired two unqualified fitness trainers as HQ managers?

Did they stuff up contact tracing and name the wrong supermarket?

Are their contact tracers also texting people who weren’t even at the nominated hotspots?

Our contact tracers are copping a smashing this week and rightly so. They are the worst in the country despite being called gold standard.

The Wollert case was from a fortnight ago.

What’s this, our fourth or fifth lockdown?

I’ve said it numerous times and I’ll say it again - I feel so sorry for businesses on hold this week and casual workers not knowing when their next shift will be. Utterly painful.

We’re an embarrassment.

Last year was a result of Vic contract tracing and health in general being a shambles of organisation, and for that buck stops with govt.

Since then we’ve had one lockdown, maybe another coming now. I’d say our contact tracing is now relatively on par with other states. Proof will be in the coming days.
 
Numbers are fun.

For example, take a look at how the US vaccination program is impacting cases there.

View attachment 1137454View attachment 1137455

Something changed in January. Can you figure out what it is?

It was the end of the festive period where people gathered indoors in great numbers over Thanksgiving then Christmas, also the winter solstice where Vitamin D levels were at their lowest.

With the US numbers is that the vaccination curve follows the death curve not the other way around.

At the peak of the death toll only 3% of people had vaccinated. The vaccines had essentially no effect at all on that steep drop in deaths at the start of the year.
 
That will be the solution in 2022 yes once they finally get the Pfizer doses and everyone who wants it can get the shot. At that point they’ll open the international borders and for the anti-vaxxers there’ll probably be atleast hundreds if not more deaths then, but that will be on them
You realise front line staff who have had two jabs (Pfizer) already expect to need another before Xmas 2021.
 

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You realise front line staff who have had two jabs (Pfizer) already expect to need another before Xmas 2021.
Are there examples of people who’ve had two jabs that now have a reduction in immunity or is this expectation built purely from a guess?
 
You realise front line staff who have had two jabs (Pfizer) already expect to need another before Xmas 2021.
A 3rd booster shot has not even been identified as necessary yet. In fact last week they found that Pfizer was just as effective against the new varients compared to the initial covid strains (which is the main concern about the need for a 3rd shot).

The US would not even have a potential 3rd dose ready by Xmas 2021 since they still haven’t found a strain that can beat the vaccine, and so we sure as heck wouldn’t be doing a booster till late 2022.
 

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Victorian Covid Outbreak 2021

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