Week 1 of Finals Tips and Crowd Expectations

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Adelaide vs. GWS 28pts 40K Adelaide too strong at home, GWS haven't learnt as yet to play as a team.
Geelong vs. Richmond 25pts 84k Geelong hasn't lost to Richmond at the MCG since 1999, it won't change this year.
Sydney vs. Essendon 18pts 22K For some reason I think Swans may falter a little in the finals. Have no idea why.
Port Adelaide
vs. West Coast 8pts 33k Meh, who cares.

When you are desperately hoping for something of course there is no reason for your thought process.
 
I thought Geelong would be heavy favourites. We just beat Richmond a couple weeks back while out of form and missing half our side. We are not that bad at the MCG, we have been winning games them there for 10 years. We nearly seem underdogs on the thread which is suprising.

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Adelaide 22 v GWS: 51/capacity
Geelong v Richmond 999 : 98/capacity
Sydney 47 v Essendon: 42
Port 1 v West Coast : 51/capacity

Capacity meaning whatever they actually make available

Port v West Coast to be 0-0 draw as port can't beat top 8 teams and west coast can't beat anyone away from Perth. Ken Hinkley reminds his players that west coast only made finals because Adelaide didn't actually care, and they perhaps aren't top 8 quality. They still struggle, but kick a behind in golden point to win.

We beat Port there earlier this year.
 
I thought Geelong would be heavy favourites. We just beat Richmond a couple weeks back while out of form and missing half our side. We are not that bad at the MCG, we have been winning games them there for 10 years. We nearly seem underdogs on the thread which is suprising.

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Being perfectly honest - we played like utter dogshit last time on a ground we hadn't played for years. That doesn't discredit your win. You obviously had key injuries, but from what I'm aware of Selwood won't be back which is probably the biggest. Right now, I've got you probably slight favourites based on both sides best available.
 
The stars in the sky over the next fortnight suggest...

Adelaide 43 pts
The inversely proportional rotations of Uranus and its moons suggests Adelaide will threaten to blow the f out of GWS early as the lead escalates. The eclipse index of the constellation of Scorpio is at an astronomical low, meaning only one thing: before the third quarter ends Adelaide take the foot off a bit and the margin plateaus

Richmond 12 pts
All aboard the Tiggy train. Choo Choo. Dangerfield and Selwood won't be very effective and Townsend will kick 3.

Essendon 38 pts
Essendon will be explosive in the first quarter just like they were against Port earlier in the year and the Swans won't have an answer.

Port Adelaide 56 pts
We smashed WC in everything but score last time we played. Expect the same but with better shots on goal. Will be a blowout.
 

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Adelaide V GWS 15pts 50K

Geelong V Richmond 28pts 96K

Sydney V Essendon 85pts 38K

Port Adelaide V West Coast 58pts 50K

I hope I am wrong but I doubt both Adelaide games will get 50k. Unlike at the MCG the Adelaide Oval members pay full price which for two games is fairly expensive given the Crows will host one more.
 
Being perfectly honest - we played like utter dogshit last time on a ground we hadn't played for years. That doesn't discredit your win. You obviously had key injuries, but from what I'm aware of Selwood won't be back which is probably the biggest. Right now, I've got you probably slight favourites based on both sides best available.
Fair enough but I wouldn't trade Hawkins, Duncan, Blicavs and Selwood to move it back to Simonds though. We will have a lot stronger team this time around but I agree Tigers really sucked at Geelong, we shall see in a fortnight then.

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The stars in the sky over the next fortnight suggest...

Adelaide 43 pts
The inversely proportional rotations of Uranus and its moons suggests Adelaide will threaten to blow the f out of GWS early as the lead escalates. The eclipse index of the constellation of Scorpio is at an astronomical low, meaning only one thing: before the third quarter ends Adelaide take the foot off a bit and the margin plateaus

Richmond 12 pts
All aboard the Tiggy train. Choo Choo. Dangerfield and Selwood won't be very effective and Townsend will kick 3.

Essendon 38 pts
Essendon will be explosive in the first quarter just like they were against Port earlier in the year and the Swans won't have an answer.

Port Adelaide 56 pts
We smashed WC in everything but score last time we played. Expect the same but with better shots on goal. Will be a blowout.
What happened last time we played at Adelaide Oval? and the time before that? The game at Subiaco just seems like a flukey outlier when you look at the greater trend of recent matches between Port and West Coast
 
What happened last time we played at Adelaide Oval? and the time before that? The game at Subiaco just seems like a flukey outlier when you look at the greater trend of recent matches between Port and West Coast

We dominated absolutely everything that day just couldn't put it on the scoreboard.. 5 more scoring shots, 30 more inside 50's, 9 more clearances. If you're using that game as to why you'd be betting on hoping we miss as many easy shots as we did in that game.

Our defensive structures have improved a hell of a lot since round 8 so I doubt you'll have 22 scoring shots from 39 inside 50's again. So many of those we kick a point and you just run down the field and get uncontested goals type game. Doubt it will happen again, the odds for the game at $1.45 to $2.90 are spot on.
 
Adelaide by 53 - Obviously things can change but Adelaide have proven to be very good on their home deck and GWS looked a bit of a shambles this week.

Geelong by 4 - Reckon this will be tight all day, unless Geelong give the Tiges a head start and then I can see the crowd noise helping the Tigers go on to a comfortable victory.

Swans by 62 - Swans just look far too good at the moment.

Port by 11 - Not confident on this tip. Bit of a battle of flat-trackers.

Reckon whoever loses Cats/Tigers is out in straight sets while the winner has the easiest path to the Grand Final. That's the most pivotal game of the first round of finals in terms of Premiership calculations.
 
Adelaide 115-86 GWS Sydney Giants
Geelong 76-92 Richmond
Sydney 107
-76 Essendon
Port Adelaide 156-65 West Coast. Take THAT for stealing Melbourne's spot!
 

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Week 1 of Finals Tips and Crowd Expectations

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