List Mgmt. Welcome to Geelong, Tanner Bruhn

[cats_09]

Re: Bruhn vs Warner

Here's the Footywire comparison when selecting 'at the same age'

There's some areas Warner has Bruhn covered, while other areas our guy leads the way - overall though, it's pretty close, especially when factoring in the extra TOG for Warner

 

[D BRIDGE]

Warner is on an entirely different level than Bruhn.

It's a weird comparison because they are very different players.

My boy Bruhn is tracking nicely, but Warner is an absolute star.

 

[Gazza Greatness]

Warner is on an entirely different level than Bruhn.

It's a weird comparison because they are very different players.

My boy Bruhn is tracking nicely, but Warner is an absolute star.

Yeah Warner at this point to be sure has been the better footballer and is a gun both inside and outside but come The Swans Vs The Cats round 14 game at the SCG and hopefully with an additional finals game, I sure hope they spend a bit of time 'one on one' playing on each other because I think 'my boy and yours' Bruhn will pleasantly surprise how far he has progressed and how good a footballer he has become!

 

[PzBlinky]

Yeah missed the ToG% line when I skimmed it.

Still the 18% difference is nearly the same as a full quarter of football for Warner at 81% ToG%

Yeah, exactly. Makes it even harder to compare the stats on top of different roles. I'd be happy if Bruhn gets up to regular 70-75%, which he isn't far away. That would be in line with our mid rotation policy and give him a bit more chance to impact. Not that far away as it is, probably next year?

 

[DanA]

Warner is on an entirely different level than Bruhn.

It's a weird comparison because they are very different players.

My boy Bruhn is tracking nicely, but Warner is an absolute star.

That’s certainly public opinion but I was interested to see what the difference was statistically as a bit of a benchmarking exercise against the gold standard.

And the answer appears not much on a per minute basis but a fair bit on a game basis. Warner is doing a little more outside and hitting the scoreboard, Bruhn is doing a bit more inside.

The major discrepancy apparent in terms of stats is TOG and I’m interested as to why. Is it fitness, versatility, or just Geelong’s game plan? Can Bruhn linearly scale his numbers with more TOG and have a similar statistical output to Warner or is that asking too much?

 

[Gazza Greatness]

That’s certainly public opinion but I was interested to see what the difference was statistically as a bit of a benchmarking exercise against the gold standard.

And the answer appears not much on a per minute basis but a fair bit on a game basis. Warner is doing a little more outside and hitting the scoreboard, Bruhn is doing a bit more inside.

The major discrepancy apparent in terms of stats is TOG and I’m interested as to why. Is it fitness, versatility, or just Geelong’s game plan? Can Bruhn linearly scale his numbers with more TOG and have a similar statistical output to Warner or is that asking too much?

Only Geelong's inner sanctum can really answer that question DanA:..... could be one, could be the other, could be a bit of both but either way in time he'll get plenty of game time and end up being excellent, both as a inside and outside mid with a few additional goals during season to compliment his already great work...... we've found a long-term beauty in Tanner to be sure, he's one tough cookie!

 

[Footy Smarts]

Some of his kicking against Carlton was absolutely exquisite. He's come a long, long way for a guy who couldn't hit the side of a barn even at VFL level at this time last year.

 

[Vdubs]

Some of his kicking against Carlton was absolutely exquisite. He's come a long, long way for a guy who couldn't hit the side of a barn even at VFL level at this time last year.

Hardly played much VFL last year- played 19 AFL games

 

[Mr Meow]

Some of his kicking against Carlton was absolutely exquisite. He's come a long, long way for a guy who couldn't hit the side of a barn even at VFL level at this time last year.

He was very quiet early on the weekend, although his couple of 1st quarter touches were quality ones. He then had 16 or 17 disposals in the next 3 quarters and was especially productive in the 2nd/3rd quarters where the midfield battle was more even. Is very much becoming a quality over quantity player (although per minute played he's fairly busy) for possessions, which has surprised me as a year ago I thought his ceiling would be a heavy accumulator with average at best disposal.

 

[iameviljez]

Some of his kicking against Carlton was absolutely exquisite. He's come a long, long way for a guy who couldn't hit the side of a barn even at VFL level at this time last year.

No substitute for a little confidence IMO.

 

[Gunf]

2011 GF

Varcoe 2011 GF is still one of my favourite memory's of all time and not just that 1 goal but his whole game

 

[Footy Smarts]

Hardly played much VFL last year- played 19 AFL games

Yeah he probably only played a couple. I remember an early game I think against Box Hill before the Easter Monday clash where he looked miles above that level but still couldn't hit a pass.

 

[STPer18]

Has a great left foot.

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

He was very quiet early on the weekend, although his couple of 1st quarter touches were quality ones. He then had 16 or 17 disposals in the next 3 quarters and was especially productive in the 2nd/3rd quarters where the midfield battle was more even. Is very much becoming a quality over quantity player (although per minute played he's fairly busy) for possessions, which has surprised me as a year ago I thought his ceiling would be a heavy accumulator with average at best disposal.

He's one of my son and my favourite players , so much potential.
Love his hardness and skill and agree - his quality is starting to shine.
I seem to recall him being caught a lot/unable to break free from stoppage in 2023 , that's changed quite a bit this season.
I think we like him being first receiver where he can use his evasiveness and speed to break free and make good decisions.
Being able to go left or right is a huge asset for him.

On a side note do we have a kicking coach? In particular Holmes and Bruhn have become very good kicks now compared to what they've shown in the past.

 

[BORIS332]

Re: Bruhn vs Warner

Here's the Footywire comparison when selecting 'at the same age'

There's some areas Warner has Bruhn covered, while other areas our guy leads the way - overall though, it's pretty close, especially when factoring in the extra TOG for Warner

Warner averaged 81.9% TOG last year versus Tanner's 63.7% this year. Bruhn has him covered comfortably when adjusting for TOG.

 

[D BRIDGE]

Warner averaged 81.9% TOG last year versus Tanner's 63.7% this year. Bruhn has him covered comfortably when adjusting for TOG.

Covered for what?

Yeah Tanner has more clearance and tackles... but that's Bruhn 1 wood.

Warner is just on another level though, and that's no slight on Bruhn, who is starting to look like a player.

Warner is a far more damaging player (level above Bruhn)... One of the most complete and dangerous inside/outside mids in the game.

I'm really liking the look of Bruhn... Pound for pound, Warner has him covered easily.

 

[David the Cat]

Easily?...perhaps...I suspect that wont be the case for too much longer.

 

[D BRIDGE]

Easily?...perhaps...I suspect that wont be the case for too much longer.

Tanner should close the gap as Warner has already reached elite status and it’ll be hard to get much better.

Bruhn definitely has plenty of room for improvement.

 

[Vdubs]

Covered for what?

Yeah Tanner has more clearance and tackles... but that's Bruhn 1 wood.

Warner is just on another level though, and that's no slight on Bruhn, who is starting to look like a player.

Warner is a far more damaging player (level above Bruhn)... One of the most complete and dangerous inside/outside mids in the game.

I'm really liking the look of Bruhn... Pound for pound, Warner has him covered easily.

Agree, but not so easily now.

 

[BORIS332]

Covered for what?

Yeah Tanner has more clearance and tackles... but that's Bruhn 1 wood.

Warner is just on another level though, and that's no slight on Bruhn, who is starting to look like a player.

Warner is a far more damaging player (level above Bruhn)... One of the most complete and dangerous inside/outside mids in the game.

I'm really liking the look of Bruhn... Pound for pound, Warner has him covered easily.

• Kicks
• Handballs
• Disposals
• Tackles
• Frees For
• Contested Possessions
• Effective Disposals
• Marks Inside 50
• Clearances
• Rebound 50s
• One Percenters
• Centre Clearances
• Stoppage Clearances
• Tackles Inside 50
• AFL Fantasy Score
• Supercoach Score

 

[D BRIDGE]

• Kicks
• Handballs
• Disposals
• Tackles
• Frees For
• Contested Possessions
• Effective Disposals
• Marks Inside 50
• Clearances
• Rebound 50s
• One Percenters
• Centre Clearances
• Stoppage Clearances
• Tackles Inside 50
• AFL Fantasy Score
• Supercoach Score

View attachment 1975497

It's a nice graph. I like it.

It does show Bruhn this year having Warner from last year covered on a few things if the TOG multiplier worked like that in real life.

It still shows Warner ahead in several very important categories, such as Goals, Behinds, Goal Assists, Score Involvements, Meters Gained, and Intercepts.

You initially said when you adjust TOG that Bruhn comfortably has Warner covered... Him still being behind Warner on a bunch of very important stats like the ones above doesn't have him comfortably ahead for mine.

What it shows is Bruhn possibly could get the ball more and tackle more... but it's not how many times you get the ball, it's what you do with it, and Warners stats hurt more.

Bruhn is doing really well this year. I'm not taking a crack at him and the graph is really positive.

I will say I'm not sure you just stick a guy on the ground for X amount longer and he will continue the same output... Otherwise you'd just leave Warner on the ground for 100% of game time and he'd multiply his goals/score involvements etc.

The reality is that Bruhn and most of our mid are played in bursts, so they spend less time on the ground but are possibly recharged more when they are on the ground. Bruhn (or all our mids) would probably take a hit in effectiveness if they spent that much extra time on the ground... I certainly don't think it would multiply evenly... Sure numbers would go up but I don't assume they would at the same rate as when player is fresher when on the ground.

Don't forget that Bruhn is hardly getting any time put into him by opposition players, whilst Warner is watched very closely and sometimes tagged... If Warner could play as free as Bruhn his numbers would be even higher, but opposition coaches won't allow it because he has an elite hurt factor and would chop any team up.

1.3 goals per game this year for Warner as a mid. The guy is seriously elite. Judd like to my eye and for Bruhn to be mentioned in the same convo as him is a good sign, even though they are very different players.

 

[Mr Meow]

• Kicks
• Handballs
• Disposals
• Tackles
• Frees For
• Contested Possessions
• Effective Disposals
• Marks Inside 50
• Clearances
• Rebound 50s
• One Percenters
• Centre Clearances
• Stoppage Clearances
• Tackles Inside 50
• AFL Fantasy Score
• Supercoach Score

View attachment 1975497

This is what some people don't understand with Bruhn. Yes sometimes on field he's quiet (as most young midfielders can be) but more often when you're thinking "Bruhn needs to get involved more" it's just because he's on the bench.

Now I know people are going to roll out that he doesn't have a tank so his reduced minutes are all on him. But that doesn't explain why so many of our midfielders have similar game time. Of all different ages. They can't all just be unfit, right?

I realise it's not quite as simple as extrapolating stats out for adjusted time, as in every case a real stat gained impacts a game as opposed to a hypothetical stat that doesn't. So Warner 2023 still did more...but at the expense of an extra midfield rotation (likely) or whatever else Scott decides to do with that 20% of a player's game time. So if the team is functioning well and we are full of run, it is difficult to criticise either the low game time mids (with their inevitably marked down stats) or Scott for going with that strategy.

 

[Romeoh1]

Really like him on the team.

 

[Cataholic]

Really like him on the team.

Aristotle - 'the whole is greater than the sum of its parts'.

Tanner isn't a flawless part, but he definitely plays an important part in the chemistry that is our 'whole' to date in 2014.

 

[Lana]

• Kicks
• Handballs
• Disposals
• Tackles
• Frees For
• Contested Possessions
• Effective Disposals
• Marks Inside 50
• Clearances
• Rebound 50s
• One Percenters
• Centre Clearances
• Stoppage Clearances
• Tackles Inside 50
• AFL Fantasy Score
• Supercoach Score

View attachment 1975497

High efficiency low gametime players isn't a bad thing if anything it is making our year but there are many reasons why adjusting a players stats by game time to compared them with a player who plays 30% more game time overstates the output of the adjusted player.